基于速度一致性的高速公路出口安全评价

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2010, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (6): 76-81 .

基于速度一致性的高速公路出口安全评价

郭唐仪¹;邓卫^*1;LU John²

1.东南大学交通学院，南京 210096； 2.南佛罗里达大学土木与环境工程系, 坦帕佛罗里达州 33620, 美国

收稿日期:2010-03-31 修回日期:2010-08-09 出版日期:2010-12-25 发布日期:2010-12-25
通讯作者: 邓卫
作者简介:郭唐仪（1982-），男，湖北黄冈人，博士生.
基金资助:
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAJ18B03)；A Project Sponsored by: Florida Department of Transportation (Contract No. : BD544 38).

Safety Evaluation for Freeway Exit Ramp Based onSpeed Consistency

GUO Tangyi¹, DENG Wei ^1,*, LU John²

1. School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida 33620, USA

Received:2010-03-31 Revised:2010-08-09 Online:2010-12-25 Published:2010-12-25
Contact: DENG Wei

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 速度差与安全性有着直接的关系。传统方法以集计的运行速度差作为速度一致性指标，容易陷入生态学谬论的误区，并且会高估道路的安全性能。本文比较了几种常用速度一致性评价方法的优劣，采用85位单车速度差85 作为出口匝道速度一致性指标，解析了85 ≥ 的关系。通过雷达对沪宁高速和南京绕城高速出口减速车道、匝道上半部以及匝道下半部单车速度的调查，得出连续路段的运行速度差、85位单车速度差85 以及85位速度变化率85 R，验证了85 约为的1.42~2.02倍，表明使用85 或者85 R作为速度一致性评价指标是更加可靠合理的。最后通过速度差以及速度差变化率大小分级，用三种方法综合判定了37个出口匝道的安全等级。

关键词: 公路运输, 速度一致性, 高速公路出口匝道, 85位速度差 , 85位单车速度差85 , 速度变化率85 R

Abstract: Speed differential has direct relationship with road safety. Conventional speed consistency measures draw sample data from independent population that follows a normal distribution. These methods may fall into ecological fallacy and overestimate the safety level of road elements. After deducing the relationship between the difference in operating speed and85( ), the 85th percentile value of individual speed reduction, this paper recommends 85( ) and speed reduction rate 85( )R is used to evaluate ramp safety. Point speeds of individual vehicle at freeway diverge area, upper ramp, and lower ramp are collected by radar guns. Safety performance of 37 exit ramps are appraised using three different measures, namely, , 85( ), and 85( )R. The results show that 85( ) is 1.42 to 2.02 times of , and that the evaluation result of 85( )R is between the other two. The measure 85( )R considers not only individual speed but also the base speed on upstream element, which avoid the pitfalls of ecological fallacy and overestimation possessed by conventional measures. It is a safer and reasonable measure that should be adopted in practice.

Key words: highway transportation, speed consistency, freeway exit ramp, difference in operating speed , the 85th percentile value of individual speed reduction85 , speed reduction rate 85( )R

中图分类号:

U412.36+6.3

郭唐仪,邓卫,LU John. 基于速度一致性的高速公路出口安全评价[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2010, 10(6): 76-81 .

GUO Tangyi, DENG Wei,LU John. Safety Evaluation for Freeway Exit Ramp Based onSpeed Consistency[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2010, 10(6): 76-81 .

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18070.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2010/V10/I6/76

参考文献

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