关键词: 城市交通, 公共交通, 固定客流, 随机客流, 到站时间分布, 平均候车时间

Abstract: The modeling of average waiting time for passengers has an important role in several fields of studies, such as the public transport network coordination optimization, the benefit analysis of the public transportation system, and so on. This paper first categorizes passengers transferring from rail transit to buses into two groups, namely, scheduled passengers and random passengers, and conducts the curve-fitting for the arrival time distribution accordingly. It is shown that the lognormal distribution has the best fitting performance for scheduled passengers, and the gamma distribution has the best performance for random passengers. Then, it develops a peak-hour average waiting time model for transferring passengers based on the passenger classification. Finally, it applies the proposed model to the bus line 519 at Longze station of Beijing to examine the accuracy of the model. The examination results demonstrate that the developed model can accurately estimate the peak-hour average waiting time of transferring passengers with a relative error less than 2.05％.

Key words: urban traffic, public transportation, scheduled passenger, random passenger, arrival rate distribution, average waiting time