为研究广州地铁 3 号线未来客流演变趋势和客流压力缓解办法，首先分析 3 号线现状客流特征，从运输 组织层面探讨 3 号线 Y 型交路方案优化的可能性，然后立足线网规划中提出的 3 号线、10 号线拆解改造的设想， 基于广州市交通模型分析未来几年不同轨网供给条件下不拆解情形、拆解情形两种运输形式对客流的影响。结果 表明：当前 3 号线客流压力在运输组织层面优化空间较小，不拆解情形下 3 号线未来几年仍将面临较大的客流压 力，北延线最大断面满载率将达 140%以上，体育西路最大换乘量将超过 60 万人次/d，但随着平行线路近期的陆 续开通，客流压力将得到缓解；若 3 号线拆解，北段运能提升，高峰断面客流压力得到快速缓解，体育西路最大 换乘量亦将低于疫情前的最大值，但拆解期间有一定负面影响。应综合考虑拆解前后客流影响和施工期间的社会 影响，决定 3 号线未来是否拆解改造。

This work aims to explore the future trends in passenger flow and methods of relieving congestion on Guangzhou Metro Line 3. Initially, the paper examines the current passenger flow characteristics of Line 3 and contemplates the potential for optimizing its Y-shaped traffic plan from a transportation organization perspective. Then, considering the proposed ideas for disassembling Line 3 and Line 10 in the network planning, the paper analyzes the effect of potentially disassembling Line 3 on passenger flow under various future rail network supply conditions, using the Guangzhou Urban Transit Model. The findings reveal that (1) Presently, the passenger flow pressure on Line 3 has little scope for optimization at the transportation organization level. In a non-disassembly scenario, Line 3 is projected to continue facing high passenger flow pressure in the upcoming years. The maximum section full load rate of Line 3’s north extension line could surpass 140%, and the maximum transfer volume at Tiyu Xilu Station may exceed 600,000 passengers/day. However, the passenger flow pressure should gradually lessen with the forthcoming opening of parallel lines. (2) If Line 3 were to be disassembled, it would enhance the transport capacity of its northern section, quickly alleviate peak section passenger flow pressure, and the maximum transfer volume at Tiyu Xilu Station would also be lower than the maximum before the COVID-19 epidemic. However, there might be negative URBAN RAPID RAIL TRANSIT 131 effects during the disassembly period. Therefore, the work proposes to thoroughly assess the passenger flow impact pre and post disassembly, as well as the social impact during disassembly, in order to determine whether a future disassembly and reconstruction of Line 3 is viable.

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