关键词: 城市交通, 环保意识, 多变量Probit模型, 低碳出行行为, 潜变量, Rasch模型

Abstract:

The low-carbon transportation is the inevitable direction of the urban traffic in cities of China. In order to analyze the impact of travelers’environmental awareness on low- carbon transportation, based on travelers’ attitude and behaviors towards environment, this paper constructs travelers’environmental awareness with the Rasch model. Then travelers’environmental awareness is introduced into the traditional multivariate Probit model as explanatory independent variables. And the impact of travelers’environmental awareness on the approval of private car restriction policies and the purchase intention of pure electric vehicles are analyzed. The result shows that there is a higher degree of fitting when incorporating travelers’environmental awareness into the multivariate probit model. The average marginal effect of environmental consciousness on the approval of changing the motorway to a bus lane, and the approval of car-limit policy (such as increasing the fuel tax and the parking fee) are 0.127 and 0.144, respectively. The average marginal effect of environmental consciousness on the purchase intention of the pure electric car right now and in the future when the infrastructure is perfect, are 0.133 and 0.116, respectively. The purchase intention of the pure electric car in the future when the infrastructure is perfect is 0.182 higher than that right now.

Key words: urban traffic, environmental awareness, multivariate Probit model, low-carbon travel behavior, latent variable, Rasch model