基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2021.06.035

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2021, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 310-318.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2021.06.035

• “碳达峰、碳中和”下的交通运输业发展 • 上一篇下一篇

基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究

贾术艳^*，宋雨童，杨紫都

中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司，中汽数据有限公司，天津 300380

收稿日期:2021-09-15 修回日期:2021-10-28 接受日期:2021-11-09 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2021-12-24
作者简介:贾术艳(1989- )，女，黑龙江绥化人，工程师。

Process of Peak Carbon Emissions of Trucks During Operating Activities Based on Growth Curve Function

JIA Shu-yan^* , SONG Yu-tong, YANG Zi-du

China Automotive Technology & Research Center Co. Ltd., Automotive Data of China Co. Ltd., Tianjin 300380, China

Received:2021-09-15 Revised:2021-10-28 Accepted:2021-11-09 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2021-12-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 货车是我国大气环境污染的重要来源之一，也是影响我国碳达峰总体目标实现的重要因素。本文从货车运营环节入手，在运用生长曲线函数对货车保有量进行预测的基础上，对不同类型货车的保有量和单车碳排放变化进行研究，并从货车节能技术发展、新能源货车推广和应用进程两方面入手，分3种情景对货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量趋势进行预判，推演货车运营环节的碳达峰时间。研究结果表明，只有同时加快货车节能技术发展以及新能源货车推广和应用进程，货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量规模才能得到有效抑制并逐渐减少。若到 2030 年货车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 20%以上，新能源货车在货车整体保有量中的占比达到 20%，到 2060 年货车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 50%，新能源货车占比达到 50%，则货车运营环节碳达峰时间将缩短至2030年左右实现，2030年后货车运营环节产生的碳排放总量规模将逐渐减少。

关键词: 公路运输, 碳排放, 生长曲线函数, 货车, 燃料消耗, 新能源

Abstract: Trucks powered by traditional fuels are the major resources of air pollution. Carbon emission reduction by truck operations is important to the realization of the goal of peak carbon emissions in China. Focusing on the truck emissions during operating activities, this paper studies the process of peak carbon emissions of trucks based on the prediction of truck ownership and single truck carbon emission. Under the different development paces of energysaving technologies and the development process of new energy powered trucks, three prediction scenarios of truck carbon emissions are included. The results show that only by simultaneously promoting the development of trucks' energy-saving technologies and new energy trucks, the total amount of carbon emissions during truck operations can be gradually reduced. Moreover, to achieve the peak of carbon emissions of trucks before 2030, the following should be satisfied: the fuel consumption of a single truck is reduced by more than 20% in 2030 compared with 2019, and the registered new energy trucks account for over 20%; and the fuel consumption level of a single truck is reduced by 50% in 2060 compared with 2019 and the registered new energy trucks account for over 50% of all registered trucks. Thus, the total carbon emissions during truck operations will gradually decrease after 2030.

Key words: highway transportation, carbon emissions, growth curve function, trucks, fuel consumption, new energy

中图分类号:

贾术艳, 宋雨童, 杨紫都. 基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2021, 21(6): 310-318.

JIA Shu-yan , SONG Yu-tong, YANG Zi-du. Process of Peak Carbon Emissions of Trucks During Operating Activities Based on Growth Curve Function[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(6): 310-318.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2021/V21/I6/310

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基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究

Process of Peak Carbon Emissions of Trucks During Operating Activities Based on Growth Curve Function

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