基于三参数区间泛灰数的技术站能力表示与估计方法

薛锋; 袁野; 户佐安; 白瑞

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20190982

基于三参数区间泛灰数的技术站能力表示与估计方法

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.20190982

薛锋^1,2,3,,
袁野⁴,
户佐安^1,2,3, ,,
白瑞¹

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（61203175）；四川省科技计划（2019YJ0211）

详细信息

作者简介:
薛锋（1981—），男，副教授，博士，研究方向为运输组织理论与系统优化，E-mail：xuefeng.7@163.com

通讯作者:
户佐安（1979—），男，副教授，博士，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理，E-mail：huzuoan@swjtu.edu.cn

中图分类号: U292.5
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-10-22
- 修回日期: 2020-07-16
- 网络出版日期: 2020-09-15
- 刊出日期: 2021-10-15

Representation and Estimation Method for Technical Station Capacity Based on Three-Parameter Interval Gray Numbers

XUE Feng^{1,2,3
,},
YUAN Ye⁴,
HU Zuoan^{1,2,3
, ,},
BHARAT Pathak¹

摘要

摘要: 铁路技术站能力是衡量其运输生产效能的重要指标，为了体现能力的伸缩性并提高能力测定的精度，分析了三参数区间与泛灰数应用于能力表示的适用性，通过三参数区间保证能力上下界的取值范围，引入泛灰数来降低能力运算可能带来的区间扩张，并根据作业系统的状态界定了收缩、平衡和松弛3种能力. 通过多种区间估计方法的比对，采用JAB （Jackknife-after-Bootstrap）区间估计方法对铁路技术站能力的伸缩范围进行测定. 郑州北编组站的实例分析表明：相较于原有的能力定值表示方法，基于三参数区间泛灰数的能力表示与估计方法测定的区间宽度更小，区间位置更加精确，当置信水平为95%时，置信区间为[9.6933，10.2043]，区间宽度为0.511；当置信水平为90%时，置信区间为[9.7358，10.1653]，区间宽度为0.429；郑州北站通过能力的收缩度为0.99，松弛度为1.01，改编能力的收缩度为0.94，松弛度为1.07，说明能力测定结果呈现一定的松弛和收缩现象.
- 铁路运输 /
- 技术站能力 /
- 三参数区间 /
- 泛灰数 /
- JAB区间估计
Abstract: Capacity is an important index to measure the production efficiency of railway technical station, in order to reflect capacity scalability and improve measurement accuracy, the applicability of three parameter interval and universal grey number for capacity representation was analyzed. The three parameter interval was used to guarantee the capacity value range of upper and lower bounds, the universal grey number was introduced to reduce the possible interval expansion caused by capacity calculation, and then the concepts of contraction capacity, balance capacity and relaxation capacity were proposed based on the operation state. After comparing various interval estimation methods, Jackknife-after-Bootstrap (JAB) interval estimation method was used to determine the lower and upper limit on capacity. A case of Zhengzhoubei Marshalling Station shows that the interval width determined by the capacity representation and estimation method based on three-parameter interval gray number is smaller, and the interval position is more accurate compared with the original fixed value representation on capacity. The calculated confidence interval is [9.6933, 10.2043], the interval width is 0.511 when the confidence level is 95%; Similarly, when it is 90%, the calculated confidence interval is [9.7358, 10.1653], and the interval width is 0.429. The contraction of carrying capacity in Zhengzhoubei railway station is 0.99, the relaxation is 1.01, and the contraction of resorting capacity is 0.94, the relaxation is 1.07, which indicates that the capacity measurement results show certain relaxation and contraction phenomenon.
- railway transportation /
- technical station capacity /
- three-parameter interval /
- universal grey number /
- JAB interval estimation

HTML全文

图 1 郑州北站上行系统通过能力雷达图

Figure 1. Radar figure for carrying capacity of up system in Zhengzhoubei station

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 文献[14]方法与JAB方法的比较

Table 1. Comparison of the literature [14] method and the JAB method

方法	置信水平 90%		置信水平 95%
方法	置信区间	区间宽度	置信区间	区间宽度
经典方法	[9.6523, 10.2529]	0.600	[9.5947, 10.3104]	0.715
文献[14]方法	[8.7143, 11.1650]	2.450	[8.5501, 11.4716]	2.926
JAB方法	[9.7358, 10.1653]	0.429	[9.6933, 10.2043]	0.511

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表 2 文献[15-17]方法与JAB方法的比较

Table 2. Comparison of the literature [15-17] method and the JAB method

方法	估计值	置信区间	区间宽度
文献[15]方法 1	50.376	[50.263,50.453]	0.190
文献[15]方法 2	50.376	[50.227,50.524]	0.297
文献[15]方法 3	50.376	[50.287,50.464]	0.177
文献[16]方法	50.383	[50.150,50.678]	0.528
文献[17]方法	50.500	[50.050,50.950]	0.900
JAB 方法	50.373	[50.339,50.407]	0.068

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表 3 能力不确定性描述方法的比较

Table 3. Comparison of methods for describing uncertainty of capacity

方法	能力区间	区间宽度
文献[5]	[9.88,10.47]	0.59
JAB 方法	[10.02,10.35]	0.33
文献[6]	[25.18,29.87]	4.69
JAB 方法	[26.99,27.82]	0.83
文献[8]	[8.70,13.30]	4.60
JAB 方法	[10.81,11.21]	0.40

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表 4 上行系统咽喉接、发车能力

Table 4. Throat receiving-departure capacity of up system

端别	咽喉道岔号码	利用率	性质	列车种类				共计能力
端别	咽喉道岔号码	利用率	性质	客车	有调车	无调车	过路车	共计能力
马砦端（到）	4	[0.73,0.80, 0.86]	接车		[71.87,77.56, 84.23]		[75.35,81.32, 88.31]	[147.22,158.88,172.54]
峰尾端（发）	2	[0.49,0.54, 0.60]	接车		[14.97,16.52, 18.44]	[83.18,91.80, 102.42]		[98.15,108.33,120.86]
欢河端	15	[0.45,0.50, 0.54]	发车		[138.87,151.25, 166.27]	[94.43,102.85, 113.06]		[233.30,254.10,279.33]

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表 5 上行系统到发线通过能力汇总

Table 5. Carrying capacity summary on arrival and departure track of up system

车场	利用率	性质	到达解体	编组始发	无改编	部分改编	通过能力
上到场	[0.875,0.888,0.902]	接车	98.0				[108.60,110.31,112.06]
上发场	[0.929,0.937,0.945]	发车		65.0	48.0	8.0	[128.04,129.12,130.21]

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表 6 峰尾编组作业占用时间

Table 6. Make-up occupation time on lead track

项目	占用时间/min	泛灰数形式	次数/次
空程	[8.11,8.94,9.77]	8.94[0.91,1,1.09]	216
连挂	[11.00,12.58,14.16]	12.58[0.87,1,1.13]	217
转线	[10.69,11.60,12.51]	11.60[0.92,1,1.08]	216
整场	[10.55,12.20,13.86]	12.20[0.86,1,1.14]	95

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表 7 郑州北站上行系统能力估计

Table 7. Capacity estimation of up system in Zhengzhoubei station

能力	通过能力	改编能力
松弛	236.64	137.66
平衡	239.43	146.84
收缩	242.27	157.34

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