| COVID-19在公交网络传播模型及防疫策略有效性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 牟振华,李想,闫康礼,郭继杰.COVID-19在公交网络传播模型及防疫策略有效性分析[J].交通信息与安全,2021,39(1):111-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牟振华 李想 闫康礼 郭继杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.山东建筑大学交通工程学院 济南 250101 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 城市公交系统是空气传播型病毒进行人际传播的重要潜在空间，研究病毒在公交系统中的传播，能精确的指导公交防疫策略的制定。基于双层公交网络模型，耦合出行规则和SEIR模型建立了公交网络传播模型，以某虚拟的区域空间和公交线网为背景，根据双层网络模型的特点，分析了公交车上及公交站点病毒传播的过程，制定宏观和微观2种防疫策略并分析效果。研究发现，公交出行会导致病毒大范围传播，公交车上和公交站点是最重要的传播环节。对公交防疫策略效果的分析中，宏观控制策略的切断公交线路比例φ1 >0.5或者停运公交站点比例 φ2 >0.4时，最终免疫人群比例会下降至0.3以下。微观调节策略则需要同时调整发车间隔 td < 4且满载率α < 50%，则最终免疫人群比例小于0.4，防控效果最显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通仿真 公交线网 病毒传播 防控策略 复杂网络 SEIR模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-05 |
An Analysis of COVID-19 Propagation Model in Public Transportation Networks and Effectiveness of Epidemic Prevention Strategies |
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| MOU Zhenhua,LI Xiang,YAN Kangli,GUO Jijie.An Analysis of COVID-19 Propagation Model in Public Transportation Networks and Effectiveness of Epidemic Prevention Strategies[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2021,39(1):111-117. |
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| Authors: | MOU Zhenhua LI Xiang YAN Kangli GUO Jijie |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Transportation Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China2.Jinan Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China |
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| Abstract: | Public transportation system is a critical potentiality space where airborne viruses have to spread between people. The study of the spread of viruses in the public transport system can accurately guide public transport epidemic prevention strategies. The two-layer public transportation network model, particle travel rules, and SEIR model are used to establish a public transportation network propagation model. Based on the background of virtual regional space and bus line network, characteristics of the two-layer network model are used to analyze the process of virus transmission on the bus and at the bus station. Both macro and micro epidemic prevention strategies are developed to analyze their effects. Public transportation causes the virus to spread on a large scale, and buses and bus stops are the most critical transmission links. For the public transportation epidemic prevention strategy, when the macro-control strategy cuts off the proportion of public transportation lines φ1 >0.5 or stops the proportion of public transportation stations φ2 >0.4, the final proportion of the immunized population will drop to below 0.3. The micro-adjustment strategy needs to control the departure interval td < 4 and the full load rate simultaneously α < 50%, so the final immune population ratio is less than 0.4, with the optimal prevention and control effect. |
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