| 交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈玲娟,刘海旭,蒲云.交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2013,26(2):376-382. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈玲娟 刘海旭 蒲云 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50908196) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究交通事故影响下路网性能的随机性,定义路网行程时间可靠性为路网在交通事故持续期内平均行程时间小于预定阈值的概率.假定事故持续时间为服从正态分布的随机变量,将给定的事故持续时间离散化为相同长度的子时段,综合运用Logit路径选择准则和路段传输模型,提出了基于Monte-Carlo法的路网行程时间可靠度模拟算法.用一个测试网络来验证算法,其事故持续时间均值为8～20 min、方差为0.5～5.0 min, 子时段出行需求为4.0和4.5辆,时间阈值为事故前走行时间的2.0和2.2倍.研究结果表明:路网行程时间可靠度均随事故持续时间均值的增大而减小;当出行需求为4.5辆、时间阈值为事故前走行时间2.0倍时,行程时间可靠度随着事故时间方差的增大而增大;当需求小于4.5辆、时间阈值大于2.0倍时,可靠度随着时间方差的增大而减小.
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| 关 键 词： | 事故持续时间 行程时间可靠性 路段传输模型 Monte-Carlo算法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-10-16 |
Travel Time Reliability during Incident Duration Time |
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| CHEN Lingjuan,LIU Haixu,PU Yun.Travel Time Reliability during Incident Duration Time[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2013,26(2):376-382. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Lingjuan LIU Haixu PU Yun |
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| Abstract: | In order to describe the stochasticity in road network performance under the influence of an incident, the travel time reliability of the road network was defined as the probability that the mean travel time during incident is smaller than a prespecified threshold. The incident duration was assumed to be a stochastic variable with normal distribution, and is divided into several equal sub-sections. Then, a Monte-Carlo based simulation methodology was put forward to compute the travel time reliability, in which the logit principle and link transmission model are incorporated. A test network was used to illustrate the methodology, in which the mean value of incident duration varies between 8 and 20 min, and variances between 0.5 and 5.0 min, the travel demand of each sub-sections is 4.0 and 4.5 vehicles, and the threshold is 2.0 and 2.2 times the travel time before incident. The results show that the network travel time reliability decreases with the mean incident duration in all cases. In addition, when the travel demand of each sub-section is 4.5 vehicles and the threshold is 2.0 times the travel time before incident, the network travel time reliability increases with the incident duration variance; however, when the demand is smaller than 4.5 vehicles and the threshold is larger than 2.2, the network travel time reliability decreases with the incident duration variance. |
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