| 基于移动平均法的铁路客票预售规律研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘彦麟,吕晓艳,王洪业.基于移动平均法的铁路客票预售规律研究[J].铁路计算机应用,2016,25(8):13-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘彦麟 吕晓艳 王洪业 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国铁道科学研究院 电子计算技术研究所,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国铁道科学研究院电子计算技术研究所基金项目（DZYF-14-16）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过对预售期为60天的预售规律进行研究分析，列车席位的预售量和预售天数有一定的关系。不同的乘车日期，重点预售日不同。非节假日高峰，乘车前一日和乘车当日，预售量较大。本文利用移动平均法对这种规律进行研究，对日常预售情况进行预测，重点分析了乘车前一日和乘车当日的预售量预测结果，预测结果和实际客流吻合较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 移动平均 预售规律 预售系数 重点预售日 客流预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-12-03 |
Pre-sale law for railway ticket based on moving average method |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Computing Technologies, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | This article studied and analyzed the pre-sale law for the period of 60-days. There is a certain relationship between the number of seats in the train and the number of days in advance. Different travel dates, focusing on sale day different. In the non holiday peak period, the pre-sale volume is large on the first day of the train and on the day of the train. This article, used the moving average method to study this kind of rule, predicted the daily pre-sale situation, focused on the forecast results of pre-sale volume on the first day of the train and on the day of the train. The forecast results were in good agreement with the actual passenger flow. |
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