| 基于工作流模型的水上交通事故应急处置效能评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 贵恒,王腾飞,汪洋,吴青.基于工作流模型的水上交通事故应急处置效能评价[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(3):116-125. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贵恒 王腾飞 汪洋 吴青 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心 武汉 430063; 武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心 武汉 430063 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(新教师类)项目交通运输部基础科研项目国家自然科学基金项目国家科技支撑计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 应急处置中密集的信息传递和交换对应急处理的最终效果具有重要的影响。现有对水上交通事故的应急处置机制中缺乏对救援时效与决策指令流的量化建模与性能提升策略的研究。为此,引入工作流模型以优化水上应急处置指令传递与信息流动的时效性和准确性。通过分析水上应急处置流程,设置典型的水上交通事故场景,在组织部门-执行时间-应急资源-消息传递网(OTRM-NET)工作流模型的基础上增加了指令存储库所。在传统的 Petri 网建模基础上,提出了一种包含了信息反馈的水上交通事故应急处置的建模方法。之后,利用模型的时间性能获得应急处置的预估时间,通过仿真实验对比 OTRM-NET 与传统应急救援方法在水上应急处置的用时,并采用错误传递率定量表示信息传递效能,提出了评价指令传递性能的算法,并应用该算法对应急处置预案进行了模拟计算,得到其信息传递效能。对一种典型的水上交通事故案例,对比 OTRM-NET 与传统应急救援方法的结果显示,OTRM-NET 在已设置案例中用时平均降低了2721 s,减少了应急流程所消耗的时间。以事故船舶信息传递库所为例,通过设计工作流的优化方案,其中船舶交通管理系统(VTS)发现事故出错的全局传递率从15%降低到9.52%,局部传递率从37.5%降低到22.22%。这表示,相比 VTS 确认船舶信息添加前,VTS 发现事故出错对于整个工作流的影响降低了36.53%,对于事故船舶信息传递路径上的影响降低了40.75%。同时可以提前2个任务周期发现并纠正错误,从而有效降低指令执行偏差。该模型和效能评价方法可以对预案编制、应急工作流提供有效的决策支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 水上交通安全 应急处置 处置效能评价 工作流 信息传递错误率 |
An Effectiveness Evaluation of Waterway Transportation Emergency Response Performance Based on a Workflow Model |
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| Abstract: | Intensive information transmission and exchange during emergency response is significant for its perform-ance.However,quantitative modeling and performance improvement on the timeliness and efficiency of rescue operations and decision instruction flow are absent in existing studies on mechanism of emergency response in waterway transporta-tion.A workflow model is introduced into the timeliness and accuracy assessment of information flow in waterway emer-gency response.Based on the analysis on the procedure of waterway emergency response and several typical waterway ac-cident scenarios,an instruction repository is added onto the organization time resources messages net (OTRM-NET) workflow model.On the basis of the conventional Petri-net model,a waterway emergency response model contains deci-sion information feedback is proposed.Moreover,the estimated period of operation can be computed by time performance of this model.Simulations are utilized to compare the operation time of OTRM-NET with that of conventional scheme. The efficiency of information transmission is quantitatively represented by error transmission rate and an algorithm on performance of information delivery is furthermore proposed.This algorithm is simulated in emergency response plans to compute the efficiency of information delivery.This model is applied to a case study of a specific waterway accident.When comparing the emergency time of OTRM-NET with that of other models,the values are reduced by 2 721 s on average. Taking the information delivery library of the ships involve in a typical accident as a case study,the overall transmissibili-ty of the accident identified by vessel traffic system (VTS)is decreased from 15% to 9.52%.The local transmissibility of the accident found by VTS is declined from 37.5% to 22.22%.Those indicate that by adding confirmation of ship informa-tion,the influence of false alarm from VTS is decreased by 36.53%.And the impacts on transmission of accident infor-mation are decreased by 40.75%.Meanwhile,the execution deviation can be detected and corrected ahead of 2 duty cy-cles,which would reduce the instruction deviation within the workflow.This proposed efficiency evaluation model is prac-tical in supporting emergency planning and formulation of the workflow of emergency response in multi-task and multi-role environment. |
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