| 无人驾驶汽车对中短距离市际出行方式选择行为的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘志伟,宋正沄,邓卫,包丹文.无人驾驶汽车对中短距离市际出行方式选择行为的影响[J].交通信息与安全,2022,40(2):91-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘志伟 宋正沄 邓卫 包丹文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉轻工大学土木工程与建筑学院 武汉 430023 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省自然科学基金;国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了无人驾驶汽车对中短距离市际间出行选择行为的影响。基于计划行为理论，通过建立结构方程模型，构建出行者对无人驾驶汽车的感知行为控制、主观规范、行为态度和行为意向心理潜变量。然后将这些心理潜变量纳入到随机系数Logit模型建立混合选择模型。以武汉市为例进行实证研究，结果表明:在效用函数中，车内时间、出入站和候车时间，以及出行费用这3个变量的系数不是固定值，而是分别服从均值为-0.014，-0.008，-0.010，标准差为0.014，0.021，0.017的正态分布。个体对无人驾驶汽车的感知行为控制和行为态度每提高1个单位，采用无人驾驶汽车出行的概率分别增加64.3%和77.9%。无人驾驶汽车的出行费用和车内时间每下降1%，选择无人驾驶汽车的概率上升0.403%和0.467%。结果证实出行者对车内时间、出入站和候车时间和出行费用的偏好存在异质性，感知行为控制和行为态度对出行者选择无人驾驶汽车出行具有显著正影响，减少无人驾驶汽车的出行费用和出行时间可以提高该方式的吸引力。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 出行方式选择 计划行为理论 随机系数Logit模型 无人驾驶汽车 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-11-18 |
Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Mode Choice Behavior in the Context of Short-and Medium-Distance Intercity Travel |
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| LIU Zhiwei,SONG Zhengyun,DENG Wei,BAO Danwen.Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Mode Choice Behavior in the Context of Short-and Medium-Distance Intercity Travel[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2022,40(2):91-97. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhiwei SONG Zhengyun DENG Wei BAO Danwen |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023, China2.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China3.college of aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the impacts of autonomous vehicles on mode choice behavior in the context of shortand medium-distance intercity travel. Based on the theory of planned behavior, a structure equation model isdeveloped, through which latent psychological variables of individuals towards autonomous vehicles are developed, including perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. These latent psychological variables are then integrated into a random parameter Logit model to develop a hybrid choice model. The City of Wuhan is used as a case to carry out an empirical study, and the study results show that: in the utility function, the coefficients of three variables, including in-vehicle time, access and exit and waiting time, and travel cost, are not fixed but follow a normal distribution with a mean of -0.014, -0.008, and -0.010 and with the standard deviations of 0.014, 0.021, and 0.017, respectively. When the perceived behavior control and attitude of individuals towards autonomous vehicles increased by 1 unit, the probability of using autonomous vehicles to travel increased by 64.3% and 77.9%, respectively. For every 1% decrease in the travel cost and in-vehicle time of autonomous vehicles, the probability of choosing autonomous vehicles and intercity shuttles increases by 0.403% and 0.467%, respectively. This paper studies the impacts of autonomous vehicles on mode choice behavior in the context of shortand medium-distance intercity travel. Based on the theory of planned behavior, a structure equation model isdeveloped, through which latent psychological variables of individuals towards autonomous vehicles are developed, including perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. These latent psychological variables are then integrated into a random parameter Logit model to develop a hybrid choice model. The City of Wuhan is used as a case to carry out an empirical study, and the study results show that: in the utility function, the coefficients of three variables, including in-vehicle time, access and exit and waiting time, and travel cost, are not fixed but follow a normal distribution with a mean of -0.014, -0.008, and -0.010 and with the standard deviations of 0.014, 0.021, and 0.017, respectively. When the perceived behavior control and attitude of individuals towards autonomous vehicles increased by 1 unit, the probability of using autonomous vehicles to travel increased by 64.3% and 77.9%, respectively. For every 1% decrease in the travel cost and in-vehicle time of autonomous vehicles, the probability of choosing autonomous vehicles and intercity shuttles increases by 0.403% and 0.467%, respectively. Study results show that travelers have heterogeneous preferences toward the attributes of the transport service offered by autonomous vehicles, such as in-vehicle time, access/egress and waiting time, and travel costs. It is also found that perceived behavioral control and behavioral attitudes have significantly positive impacts on traveler's choice on autonomous vehicles. Therefore, reducing travel costs and travel time of autonomous vehicles can increase the attractiveness of autonomous vehicles. |
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