| 中国煤炭运输网络空间演化 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文雅,李振福.中国煤炭运输网络空间演化[J].交通运输工程学报,2019,19(3):166-177. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文雅 李振福 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.大连海事大学 交通运输工程学院, 辽宁 大连 1160262.大连海事大学 航运经济与管理学院, 辽宁 大连 116026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目2016YFC142706国家社会科学基金重大项目13&ZD170辽宁省高等教育内涵发展专项资金项目20110116405 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究中国煤炭运输网络的演变规律和内在作用机制, 借鉴复杂网络的建模思想, 提出了综合煤炭价格成本和运输成本选择机制的煤炭运输网络演化模型, 并通过调节模型参数, 分析了其对网络特性的影响; 为反映煤炭价格动态波动对节点选择的影响, 构建了服务于演化模型的煤炭价格波动函数; 采用1998年中国煤炭运输数据进行仿真计算, 并将仿真结果与2016年中国煤炭运输网络特性进行对比, 以验证提出的煤炭运输网络演化模型的合理性。研究结果表明: 节点强度比节点度更适合用于分析中国煤炭运输网络特性; 中国煤炭运输网络为异配网络, 移走少数高强度节点会严重影响网络的连通性, 增加煤炭运输进口节点会减小移走少数高强度节点对网络的影响; 增加煤炭运输出口节点能提高中国煤炭运输网络的可靠性, 能大大提高山东、辽宁等地区的港口潜力, 带动地区经济发展; 增加煤炭运输进口节点会使中国东南部沿海地区和中部地区成为关键节点, 也能提高中国煤炭运输网络的可靠性, 但网络抗毁性会减弱, 网络中关键节点与非关键节点连接的倾向性会逐渐减弱, 网络的传递性和紧密程度表现为先升高后降低的趋势。可见, 在增加煤炭运输进出口节点的同时, 应加强对煤炭运输网络的整体规划和对枢纽地区的建设和管理, 合理引导煤炭运输资源配置, 以提高中国煤炭运输网络的整体性能。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输规划 煤炭运输网络 演化模型 价格函数 网络特性 空间演化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-22 |
Spatial evolution of coal transportation network of China |
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| WANG Wen-ya,LI Zhen-fu.Spatial evolution of coal transportation network of China[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2019,19(3):166-177. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wen-ya LI Zhen-fu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China2.School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China |
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| Abstract: | To investigate the evolution rules and intrinsic mechanisms of coal transportation network of China, a coal transportation network evolution model based on the coal price cost and transportation cost selection mechanism was proposed referring to the modeling ideas of complex networks. Through adjusting the model parameters, the influences of model parameters on the network characteristics were analyzed. To reflect the effect of dynamic fluctuation in coal price on node selection, a coal price fluctuation function was constructed to serve the evolution model. The simulating calculation was conducted through the coal transportation data of China in 1998, and the simulation results were compared with the coal transportation network characteristics of China in 2016 to verify the rationality of the proposed coal transportation network evolution model. Research result shows that the node strength is more suitable for analyzing the characteristics of coal transportation network of China than the node degree. The coal transportation network of China is a heterogeneous network. Removing a few nodes with high strength will severely affect the network connectivity. Increasing importing nodes of coal transportation will reduce the impact of removing a few nodes with high strength on the network. Increasing exporting nodes of coal transportation can enhance the reliability of coal transportation network of China, improve the potential of ports in the areas such as Shandong and Liaoning, and drive the regional economic development. Increasing importing nodes of coal transportation can make the southeast coast region and central region of China critical nodes, and also enhance the reliability of coal transportation network of China, but will weaken the network invulnerability and the tendency of critical nodes connecting with non-critical nodes. The transmission and tightness of network will show a tendency of increasing first and then decreasing. Thus, when increasing importing and exporting nodes of coal transportation, the overall planning of coal transportation network and the construction and management of hub areas should be strengthened. The coal transportation resource allocation should be rationally guided, so as to improve the overall performance of coal transportation network of China. |
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