| 基于多方式广义费用模型的超级交通网络需求预测技术应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁春毅,聂向军,邵春福,金冰峰,王明智.基于多方式广义费用模型的超级交通网络需求预测技术应用[J].中国公路学报,2022,35(11):228-238. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁春毅 聂向军 邵春福 金冰峰 王明智 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 交通运输部规划研究院, 北京 100029;2. 北京交通大学 综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室, 北京 100044;3. 北京智捷通科技发展有限公司, 北京 100032 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金创新群体项目（71621001）；国家自然科学基金项目（52072025） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对综合交通网络规划各方式缺乏有机融合问题，通过建立以虚拟概化线连接的铁路、公路、水运、民航各方式交通线网和火车站、港口、机场等枢纽节点一体衔接的超级交通网络模型，运用广义费用函数计算客货在路网、枢纽及虚拟概化线上流动产生的广义费用，实现各方式交通网络融合。考虑公路客货运周转量占全方式总量比例高，但客货运平均运距短，以县级行政单元为基础将全国划分为2 540个综合交通小区，获取2018年各运输方式全年客货运起讫点（OD）数据，通过聚合、拆分等方法，将各方式OD表叠加形成现状综合交通小区客货运输量OD表；采用总量预测、自上而下分层控制的技术路线，对2050年全国总量、分区域总量和综合交通小区客货运发生吸引量进行预测，计算2050年综合交通小区客货运输量OD，实现各方式运输需求融合。基于Fisk模型，构建组合出行情况下多方式、多类别随机用户均衡分配模型（SUE），采用连续权重平均（MSWA）法对模型进行求解，并通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性。结果表明：模型能够体现“宜铁则铁、宜公则公、宜水则水”的规划理念，实现乘客组合出行和货物多式联运，预测精度较高。研究成果可应用于宏观交通趋势判断，为实现综合交通网络规划中各方式有机融合提供借鉴，并成功应用于国家综合立体交通网规划研究中。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 超级交通网络 随机用户均衡分配模型 多方式广义费用 综合立体交通网 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-02-22 |
Super Transportation Network Demand Forecast Technology Based on Multi-mode Generalized Cost Model |
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| YUAN Chun-yi,NIE Xiang-jun,SHAO Chun-fu,JIN Bing-feng,WANG Ming-zhi.Super Transportation Network Demand Forecast Technology Based on Multi-mode Generalized Cost Model[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2022,35(11):228-238. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Chun-yi NIE Xiang-jun SHAO Chun-fu JIN Bing-feng WANG Ming-zhi |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Transport Planning and Research Institute Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100029, China;2. Key Laboratory of Industry of Big Data Application Technology for Comprehensive Transport, Ministry of Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;3. Beijing Traffic Intelligence Tech Co. Ltd., Beijing 100032, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the lack of organic integration of various transport modes on the comprehensive transportation network planning, a super transportation network model was establish integrating railway, highway, water transportation and civil aviation transportation networks via virtual generalization connecting lines, and hub nodes such as railway stations, airports and ports. Generalized cost function is used to calculate the generalized cost of passenger and freight transport flowing on the road network, hub, and virtual generalization connection line, and then it is assigned to the corresponding attribute table. Considering that highway passenger and freight turnover accounts for a high proportion of the national passenger and freight turnover, but the average distance of passenger and freight transport is short, the country is divided into 2 540 integrated transportation zone based on county-level administrative units. The origin-destination (OD) data of passenger and freight in each transportation mode in 2018 were obtained, and by means of aggregation and splitting, the OD tables of passenger and freight transportation volume in the current integrated transportation zone were superimposed. By using the technical route of total volume prediction and top-down hierarchical control, the national total volume, sub-regional total volume and passenger and freight attraction of integrated traffic zone in 2050 were predicted, and the OD table of passenger and freight transportation volume of integrated transportation zone in 2050 was calculated, so as to integrate individual modes of transport needs. Based on the Fisk model, a multi-mode and multi-category stochastic user equilibrium assignment model under combined travel conditions is constructed, and the method of successive weight average is used to solve the model. An example is given to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The results show that the model can reflect the planning concept of developing transport modes according to real conditions, realize the combination of passenger travel and freight multimodal transportation, and the prediction accuracy is relatively high. The research results can be applied to the judgment of macro traffic trend, and provide reference for the organic integration of each mode in the integrated transportation network planning. The above-mentioned allocation model also has been successfully applied to the research of National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning. |
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| Keywords: | traffic engineering super transportation network stochastic user equilibrium assignment model multi-mode generalized cost comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network |
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