| 基于多源数据的公交专用道效能评价方法与影响模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 翁剑成,孙宇星,孔宁,潘晓芳,祁昊.基于多源数据的公交专用道效能评价方法与影响模型[J].中国公路学报,2022,35(4):267-276. |
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| 作者姓名： | 翁剑成 孙宇星 孔宁 潘晓芳 祁昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京工业大学 交通工程北京市重点实验室, 北京 100124;2. 北京市交通委员会, 北京 100073;3. 中交智运有限公司, 天津 300210;4. 交通运输部科学研究院, 北京 100129 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(52072011,U1811463);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFE0134500) |
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| 摘 要： | 施画公交专用道是落实公交优先策略、改善公交服务质量，提升交通系统效率的重要策略。近年来，如何提高公交专用道设置的科学性、提升服务效能受到广泛关注。为科学定量评价公交专用道设置的正、负效能，建立基于多维运行影响的公交专用道效能评价指标体系，提出基于主观层次分析法和客观离差最大化法相结合的组合评价方法，实现对公交专用道效能的定量化评估；在此基础上，采用灰色关联分析法筛选确定专用道效能的影响因素集，建立基于随机森林回归的效能影响模型，以变量重要性来测度各因素对公交专用道效能的影响程度,并以北京市域京藏高速、京港澳高速、三环路等公交专用道的多源监测数据为基础进行模型验证。研究结果表明：所构建的效能评价模型能较为精确地刻画公交专用道效能在不同时空条件下的变化特征；效能影响模型结果表明公交专用道设置形式对其效能的影响程度最大，其次为路段的交通饱和度，公交车流量、专用道断点密度、路段速度、公交客流量也有较为明显的影响;提出的模型精度明显优于逻辑回归模型和BP神经网络等其他模型。研究成果可为公交专用道的精细化设计和科学设置提供重要的方法支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 公交专用道 效能评价 随机森林回归 影响模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-02 |
Evaluation Method and Influence Model of Bus Lane Performance Based on Multi-source Data |
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| WENG Jian-cheng,SUN Yu-xing,KONG Ning,PAN Xiao-fang,QI Hao.Evaluation Method and Influence Model of Bus Lane Performance Based on Multi-source Data[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2022,35(4):267-276. |
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| Authors: | WENG Jian-cheng SUN Yu-xing KONG Ning PAN Xiao-fang QI Hao |
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| Affiliation: | 1. The Key Laboratory of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;2. Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, Beijing 100073, China;3. CCCC Intelligence Transportation Co. Ltd., Tianjin 300210, China;4. China Academy of Transportation Science, Beijing 100129, China |
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| Abstract: | The bus lane is an important factor responsible for implementing bus priority strategy, and improving the quality of bus services and efficiency of traffic systems. In recent years, improvements in the scientific setting and service efficiency of bus lanes have been widely studied. To evaluate the positive and negative performance of bus lanes quantitatively and scientifically, and to explore the influencing factors of the performance of bus lanes, this study established an indicator system of bus lanes performance evaluation based on the multi-dimensional operation influence, and proposed a combined evaluation method based on the combination of the subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective deviation maximization to realize quantitative evaluation of bus lanes. Consequently, the influencing factors of bus lane performance were selected and determined using grey correlation analysis; the influencing model based on the random forest regression model was established; and the influence degree of each factor on bus lane performance was measured by the evaluating the importance of variables. Based on the multi-source traffic operation data, this study used the Beijing-Tibet Expressway, Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, and Third Ring Roads as examples to verify the model. The results show that the proposed model can accurately describe the performance of bus lanes under different time and space conditions; The results demonstrated that the type of bus lane has the greatest impact on its performance, followed by the road saturation, bus vehicle volume, break points density, section speed, and bus passenger flow. The model comparison shows that the evaluation accuracy of the proposed model based on random forest regression is better than that of the logistic regression model and back propagation neural network model. Relevant research can provide important method support for the fine design and scientific setting of bus lanes. |
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| Keywords: | traffic engineering dedicated bus lane performance evaluation random forest regression impact model |
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