| 重大疫情对乘客公共交通依赖性的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡松,翁剑成,林鹏飞,周伟,荆云琪.重大疫情对乘客公共交通依赖性的影响[J].交通信息与安全,2021,39(3):17-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡松 翁剑成 林鹏飞 周伟 荆云琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室 北京 100124 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目52072011国家自然科学基金重大项目U1811463 |
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| 摘 要： | 深入探究重大疫情对乘客公共交通使用行为和依赖性的影响，有助于针对性地改善公共交通服务质量和供需平衡情况。结合前景理论与计划行为理论，开展重大疫情时期SP/RP出行调查，从出行行为表现维度选取3个指标并利用k-means算法标定公共交通出行群体，从7个层面筛选公共交通依赖性内外部影响指标，采用结构方程模型构建重大疫情对乘客公共交通依赖性影响模型。结果表明，个体属性、出行环境和出行特征潜变量通过改变个体心理因素间接影响乘客公共交通依赖性，反映了乘客公共交通依赖性受主客观影响因素的共同作用；重大疫情下出行意向对公共交通依赖性的正向作用强度为0.36，低于常态化时的影响强度0.51；出行环境的正向影响效应较强，而个体属性影响效应较低且与公共交通态度和主观规范呈负相关性；此外，自行车可用性、是否途径风险区和出行强度影响度几乎不影响乘客公共交通依赖性；而防控政策了解度、主观规范变量和公共交通出行偏好的影响作用显著，反映了重大疫情时期在公共交通市场中社会促进效应与消费心理学中的模糊效应较为明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市交通 重大疫情 依赖性 k-means算法 结构方程模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-25 |
Impacts of Major Epidemic on Passengers' Dependence on Public Transport |
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| HU Song,WENG Jiancheng,LIN Pengfei,ZHOU Wei,JING Yunqi.Impacts of Major Epidemic on Passengers' Dependence on Public Transport[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2021,39(3):17-24. |
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| Authors: | HU Song WENG Jiancheng LIN Pengfei ZHOU Wei JING Yunqi |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China2.Ministry of Transport of People's Republic of China, Beijing 100736, China |
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| Abstract: | Exploring the impacts of major epidemics on passengers' behaviors and dependence on public transportation can improve the quality of public transportation(PT)services and the balance between supply and demand.Based on the prospect theory and the theory of planned behavior(TPB), the work proposes the SP/RP travel survey scheme in the period of a major epidemic.Three indicators are selected from the dimension of travel behaviors, and a k-means algorithm is used to identify the PT passenger categories.The internal and external impact indicators of PT dependence are screened from seven levels.Then, a structural equation model is utilized to construct the model of major-epidemic impacts on passengers' PT dependence.The results show that the latent variables of individual attributes, travel environment, and travel characteristics indirectly affect passengers' PT dependence by changing individual psychological factors, which reflects the joint effect of subjective and objective factors on passengers' PT dependence.The positive intensity of travel intention on PT dependence under a major epidemic is 0.36, which is lower than that of 0.51 under normal conditions.The positive effect of the travel environment is strong, while the effect of individual attributes is relatively low and negatively correlated with PT attitude and subjective norms.Besides, bicycle availability, route risk, and travel intensity hardly affect passengers' PT dependence.The acquaintance of prevention and control policies, subjective normative variables, and travel preference on PT have significant effects, reflecting that the social promotion effect and the fuzzy effect of consumer psychology are more obvious in the PT market in the major epidemic period. |
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