| 基于负二项分布的高速公路交通事故影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈昭明,徐文远.基于负二项分布的高速公路交通事故影响因素分析[J].交通信息与安全,2022,40(1):28-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈昭明 徐文远 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北林业大学土木工程学院 哈尔滨 150040 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划;黑龙江省交通运输厅重点科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素，构建基于负二项分布的事故分析模型，探究事故数与交通特性、公路线形及路面性能间关系。鉴于传统固定参数模型难以刻画各因素对事故风险影响的异质性，引入了随机参数建模方法。结果表明:相比于固定参数负二项模型，构建的随机参数负二项模型有更好的拟合优度，且能更合理地反映各因素对事故的作用效果；将随机参数分布的均值设置为其他变量的函数形式，可进一步挖掘各因素对事故风险的交互影响；交通量、路段长度、货车比例、平曲线曲率、纵坡坡度及车辙深度均与事故数正相关，且其每增加1%，事故数分别增加0.299%，1.029%，0.093%，0.079%，0.068%和0.054%；结构强度系数与事故数负相关，其每增加1%，事故数降低0.064%；增加路缘带宽度有益于交通安全；单向3车道或4车道路段的事故数多于同等条件下的2车道路段；弯坡组合路段的事故风险明显高于单纯的平曲线路段；货车比例高的下坡路段事故风险尤其高。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 事故影响因素 负二项模型 几何线形 高速公路 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-08-26 |
An Analysis of Factors Influencing Freeway Crashes with a Negative Binomial Model |
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| CHEN Zhaoming,XU Wenyuan.An Analysis of Factors Influencing Freeway Crashes with a Negative Binomial Model[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2022,40(1):28-35. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Zhaoming XU Wenyuan |
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| Affiliation: | School of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China |
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| Abstract: | In this study, a negative binomial model is developed to investigate factors influencing crashes on freeways such as traffic flow, freeway alignment and pavement conditions. Since traditional fixed-effects models are incapable of capturing the heterogeneous effects of these factors on crash risk, a random-effects modeling method is introduced. Results indicate that the proposed random-effects negative binomial model has a better goodness-of-fit compared with its fixed-effects counterpart. In addition, the model explains the impact of the related factors on road safety in a more reasonable way. The interactions of the impact factors used in the model can be further studied by setting up the mean of a random parameter to be a functional form of other variables. It is found that traffic volume, length of road section, proportion of truck traffic, curvature, longitudinal grade and rutting depth are all positively correlated with crash frequency and 1% of increase in aforementioned variables increases the expected crash risk by 0.299%, 1.029%, 0.093%, 0.079%, 0.068%, and 0.054%, respectively. The pavement structural strength index is negatively correlated with crashes, and one percent of increase of the index will reduce the expected crash risk by 0.064%. Increasing the width of marginal strip is found to be beneficial to enhance safety. Three- or four-lane one-way freeway sections are found to experience more crashes than two-lane one-way freeway sections. It is also found that a segment with the combined alignment of curves and slopes is significantly more dangerous than a flat curved segment and the crash risk is considerably higher for downhill segments with a high proportion of truck flow. |
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