| 基于熵权-云模型的三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵程度综合评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐胜,徐周华,刘奕.基于熵权-云模型的三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵程度综合评价[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(3):124-132. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐胜 徐周华 刘奕 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学航运学院 武汉 430063;武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室 武汉 430063 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省科技支撑(对外合作类)项目国家自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学、合理地建立三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵程度综合评价体系,才能有效、定量地评价三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵程度.采用改进的熵权法来确定三峡坝区船舶拥堵评价指标权重,这一方法主要包含专家主观权重计算和实际船舶过闸统计数据客观权重计算,避免了单纯人为确定权重的主观性和统计数据不足造成的局限性.通过计算,主客观权重比例分配为0.624∶0.376.考虑到评价指标确定性和不确定性信息并存的特点,改进传统的云模型,将传统物元模型中的特征值参数用正态云代替,计算待评物元与标准云模型之间的云关联度,通过计算得到的评价指标权重和云关联度,得到待评价物元的等级隶属度.运用这一模型,对三峡坝区2015年船舶过闸拥堵程度进行综合评价,其等级隶属度为0.126,0.221,0.172,0.325,0.156],拥堵程度等级为4级,与实际情况相符合.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通控制 船舶拥堵 改进熵权法 物元云模型 拥堵评价 |
A Comprehensive Evaluation System of Vessel Congestion in the Three Gorges Dam Area Based on the Cloud Model |
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| Abstract: | A comprehensive evaluation system of vessel congestion in the Three Gorges Dam area is proposed in order to effectively and quantitatively evaluates the congestion degree of ships passing the Three Gorges Dam.The entropy method is improved and applied to determine the index weights of vessel congestion evaluation.The method consists of subjective weights by expert surveys and objective weights through statistical analysis of actual data.Therefore, limits of subjectivity and insufficiency of data can be effectively overcome.The ratio between the subjective and objective weight is found as 0.624∶0.376.In the presence of deterministic and uncertain characteristics of the evaluation indices, an improved cloud model is developed.The eigenvalue parameters are replaced by normal elements, on basis of which the cloud correlations between matter elements and a standard cloud matter model are computed.The proposed model is applied to evaluate the degree of vessel congestion in the Three Gorges Dam area for the year 2015.The evaluation degree is known as 0.126, 0.221, 0.172, 0.325, 0.156] and the congestion degree is 4.The presented findings are generally consistent with the actual situations. |
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