| 成山角分道通航制水域航行风险辨识与操纵决策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺益雄,于德清,刘霄,王丰,牟军敏.成山角分道通航制水域航行风险辨识与操纵决策方法[J].交通信息与安全,2022,40(5):34-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺益雄 于德清 刘霄 王丰 牟军敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉理工大学航运学院 武汉 430063 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目2019YFB1600603国家自然科学基金面上项目520712492021年湖北省教育厅科技课题项目B2021519 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对成山角分道通航制水域船舶航行风险高的问题，对数字化仿真环境、风险辨识、避碰机理和操纵决策开展研究。通过解构成山角水域的构成要素，建立静态交通环境的数学模型，结合船舶动态信息，构成动静结合的数字化仿真环境；基于时间、空间双维度的碰撞危险度模型和本船船位信息，提出碰撞等航行风险的辨识方法；考虑《1972年国际海上避碰规则》和良好船艺要求，归纳成山角水域不同会遇局面下的避让原则和方法，结合避碰机理求取最小改向幅度；运用时序滚动和反馈补偿方法，提出能自适应目标船机动特征的操纵决策模型。模拟成山角水域船舶会遇场景，开展多目标船场景下的仿真实验，结果表明:①在自建坐标系的会遇场景中（目标船:坐标位置（44 600 m，62 300 m），航向210°，航速12 n mile/h；本船:坐标位置（41 200 m，38 000 m），航向000°，航速12 n mile/h），基于成山角水域船舶行为的船位推算方法可提前1 168 s识别到碰撞危险；②在随机生成的多目标船模拟环境下，本船在245，617，2 005，2 405 s分别采取右转17°、复航、右转11°、复航操作，可让清所有目标船，满足船舶在该水域航行时操纵决策的需求。综上，提出的方法在成山角水域可更早识别到碰撞危险并进行操纵决策，为船舶在类似分道通航制水域中智能航行的实现提供理论基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 航行安全 分道通航制 操纵决策 避碰机理 风险辨识 碰撞危险度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-03-29 |
A Method of Risk Identification and Decision-making Support for Ship Maneuvers at Chengshanjiao Waters Under Traffic Separation Scheme |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China2.Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China |
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| Abstract: | Simulation of environment, risk identification, collision avoidance and decision-making support for ship maneuvers are studied in order to counteract the high risk associated with shipping at Chengshanjiao waters under traffic separation scheme(TSS). The shipping environment of the Chengshanjiao waters is analyzed and digitalized to develop a static nautical environment model, and the dynamic traffic is investigated to set up a digitalized shipping simulation system. A method for risk identification is proposed based on the positions of ships and a collision risk model considering both space and time dimension. Good Seamanship and International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea(COLREGS)are used to summarize the principles of ship maneuvers in different scenarios, and a ship maneuver meeting the principle of"minimum course altering"is produced based on the collision avoidance mechanism. A decision-making model adaptive to the random motions of target ships is developed using a rolling-window method and a feedback compensation method. Shipping traffic at the Chenshanjiao waters is simulated and multiple-ship scenarios are introduced. Study results show that: ①The proposed risk identification method using dead reckoning can identify the risk 1 168 s earlier than the regular methods at the Chengshanjiao waters when the own ship locating at(41 200 m, 38 000 m)heading to 000°with a speed of 12 n mile/h encounters with the target ship at(44 600 m, 62 300 m)heading to 210° with a speed of 12 n mile/h. ②Under a simulated multiple-ship scenario, the own ship can avoid collisions with target ships by altering to the starboard 17° at 245 s, resuming to sail at 617 s, altering to the starboard 11° at 2005 s, and resuming to sail at 2 405 s, which meets the principle of Good Seamanship. In conclusion, the proposed method can identify the collision risk earlier and support decision-making on ship maneuvers better than other methods at the Chenshanjiao waters, which provides a theoretical foundation for developing intelligent navigation systems on waters under TSS. |
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