Does Weight matter? A Statistical analysis of the SSY Capesize index

This paper examines the statistical properties of 19 dry cargo rate series, which are used in the construction of index numbers measuring dry cargo market conditions for Capesize vessels. It is shown that the series are extremely highly correlated. They are also non-stationary. The presence of cointegration is established. It is argued that this implies that rebasing the index numbers using different weights makes little difference to the information derived from the index itself, because of the high correlation between the series and the presence of cointegration. Changing the weighting structure does not alter the information derived from the index in any material way because of these properties.     

The market for second-hand ships: some results on efficiency using cointegration

This paper extends earlier investigations into the structure of shipping markets, and, in particular, examines the implicit assumption made in some applied studies that these markets are efficient. The idea of cointegration, recently developed in the time series literature, is used to analyse the world-wide markets for secondhand dry bulk carriers. The results raise serious doubts over the validity of efficient markets hypothesis in these cases.     

Global Fish Trade,Prices, and Food Security in an African Coral Reef Fishery

This study evaluated the potential impact of global fish trade on local food prices by analyzing a 16-year locally collected time series of disaggregated coral reef fish products and prices that differed in their market chain linkages—ranging from local to international markets. We were primarily interested in evaluating how local and global markets interacted with the local prices of beef, fish, and maize. There was no cointegration between the prices of exported octopus and that of maize and beef over this study period. Further, the three types of fish and associated markets responded in different ways to various price changes. For internationally traded octopus, we found a positive association between price and catch rates but no evidence that the global trade in octopus markets created local inflation, particularly the prices of the fish eaten by the poor. In general, there was no evidence for price transmission from export to nonexport fish products even though fishers appeared to focus on octopus when prices were high. Consequently, fishers' behaviors and trade policies that promote adjusting fishing effort to internationally traded fish did not appear to promote poverty or food insecurity in this fishery.     

Combined ships: an empirical investigation about versatility

Combined ships have been built in order to minimize ballast voyages and to take advantage of the highest freight rates on either market, oil or dry cargo market. Then their versatility should have been very attractive for shipowners. So why has the combined fleet shrunk to such an extent? This paper provides an analysis of the employment of combined ships, how this has been influenced since the 1970s, and how these ships may have influenced oil and dry market balances. The research identifies the decisive role that grain trade seems to be able to play about shifting markets, and that combined ships were the largest bulk carriers in the 1970s. It is an opportunity to stress that freight rates are not always the only salient point for a shipowner's decision and to consider the importance of combination ships contribution to shipping markets.     

Development of and prospects for cruising in Europe

This paper evaluates the development of prospects for cruising in Europe. It examines this within the broad framework of economic theory and maritime economics. Initially, the market structures and relationships applicable to cruising are considered with particular attention being paid to the linkages between the shipping markets and tourism and leisure. This conceptual analysis suggests that whilst cruising has a strong shipping element it does not fall exclusively within the classic framework of maritime economics but draws from both shipping and tourism and leisure. For reasons of clarity, a number of definitions are also provided covering maritime tourism and leisure, cruising, and supply and demand, as it relates to cruising. Following this, an overview of the cruise industry is included. This focuses primarily on the growth in the demand both world wide and at regional level. In particular, the analysis places the development of cruising in Europe in market perspective. Subsequently, the development of cruising in the UK is examined as a case study. Initially, UK market growth is analysed and it can be seen that the UK is now the second largest cruise market in the world after North America. Projections of the growth in UK demand to 2003 are also provided. The growth in supply is also studied and the UK targeted fleet is identified. In addition, the question of ownership is addressed. The prospects of employment for UK seafarers within the cruise industry are also considered and results obtained from the analysis suggest that it should be possible to increase the participation of UK and other European seafarers within the cruise industry at all levels and in all departments. In the final section of the paper, the position of UK ports as terminals and destinations is evaluated. It is concluded that the fundamentals of the cruise business remain strong, and continued growth by the industry should be possible for the foreseeable future.     

Development of and prospects for cruising in Europe

This paper evaluates the development of prospects for cruising in Europe. It examines this within the broad framework of economic theory and maritime economics. Initially, the market structures and relationships applicable to cruising are considered with particular attention being paid to the linkages between the shipping markets and tourism and leisure. This conceptual analysis suggests that whilst cruising has a strong shipping element it does not fall exclusively within the classic framework of maritime economics but draws from both shipping and tourism and leisure. For reasons of clarity, a number of definitions are also provided covering maritime tourism and leisure, cruising, and supply and demand, as it relates to cruising. Following this, an overview of the cruise industry is included. This focuses primarily on the growth in the demand both world wide and at regional level. In particular, the analysis places the development of cruising in Europe in market perspective. Subsequently, the development of cruising in the UK is examined as a case study. Initially, UK market growth is analysed and it can be seen that the UK is now the second largest cruise market in the world after North America. Projections of the growth in UK demand to 2003 are also provided. The growth in supply is also studied and the UK targeted fleet is identified. In addition, the question of ownership is addressed. The prospects of employment for UK seafarers within the cruise industry are also considered and results obtained from the analysis suggest that it should be possible to increase the participation of UK and other European seafarers within the cruise industry at all levels and in all departments. In the final section of the paper, the position of UK ports as terminals and destinations is evaluated. It is concluded that the fundamentals of the cruise business remain strong, and continued growth by the industry should be possible for the foreseeable future.     

The value of time

This paper investigates, for the first time, the relationship between prices and trading activity in a market where real assets are traded, i.e. in the sale and purchase market for second-hand dry bulk vessels. Investigation of this issue is of interest since the level of trading activity may contain information about the sentiment and the future direction of the prices in the market. Several important conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is found that price changes are useful in predicting trading volume, which suggests that higher capital gains encourage more transactions in the market. Additionally, it seems that volume has a negative impact on the volatility of price changes. More specifically, in contrast to what is reported for financial markets, we find evidence that, in the market for ships, increases in trading activity lead to a reduction in market volatility. This can be explained by the unique underlying characteristics of the market for ships, including thin trading, which imply that increases in trading activity result in price transparency and stability. These findings indicate that practitioners in the market may use the information contained in the level of trading activity so as to guide their market decisions in the sale and purchase market.     

The price-volume relationship in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk vessels

This paper investigates, for the first time, the relationship between prices and trading activity in a market where real assets are traded, i.e. in the sale and purchase market for second-hand dry bulk vessels. Investigation of this issue is of interest since the level of trading activity may contain information about the sentiment and the future direction of the prices in the market. Several important conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is found that price changes are useful in predicting trading volume, which suggests that higher capital gains encourage more transactions in the market. Additionally, it seems that volume has a negative impact on the volatility of price changes. More specifically, in contrast to what is reported for financial markets, we find evidence that, in the market for ships, increases in trading activity lead to a reduction in market volatility. This can be explained by the unique underlying characteristics of the market for ships, including thin trading, which imply that increases in trading activity result in price transparency and stability. These findings indicate that practitioners in the market may use the information contained in the level of trading activity so as to guide their market decisions in the sale and purchase market.     

Is there potential for a two-tier tanker market?

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3-5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one quality tankers can operate both market segments.     

On the nature and sorces of controversy in the economic analysis of the liner shipping industry†

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3–5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one—quality tankers—can operate both market segments.     

Market structures in coastal shipping: what to expect in Canada following the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement with the European Union?

After several years of negotiation between Canada and the European Union, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) was ratified in early 2017. The regime set out by the Canadian Coasting Trade Act that reserves shipments of cargo between Canadian ports to Canadian vessels remains mostly untouched under CETA. Minor, yet potentially significant, changes to the regime are introduced by the trade agreement. Provisions are made to liberalize the repositioning of empty containers within Canada. The liberalization of public markets now allows European firms to compete in the Canadian dredging market. Finally, EU vessels can undertake some transshipment activity in Canada but this is limited to international cargo on the specific Montreal-Halifax route. The paper attempts to highlight some possible CETA’s consequences for domestic Canadian shipping markets. It uses industrial economics analytical tools drawn from a Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm. From a literature review, it reconstructs different cases of deregulation that occurred internationally. The observed transformations are then characterized in terms of the SCP model. The paper identifies some common impacts which occurred in different transportation industries after a deregulation process. Using these findings, it concludes by discussing potential impacts for domestic shipping markets in Canada.     

Competition in transit markets

Despite regulatory reforms in a number of countries, competition in transit markets is still relatively rare. Moreover, where it does occur it tends to be small group in nature and the outcomes are difficult to predict. In this paper, simulation models of competition in inter-urban rail markets and urban bus markets are developed and applied in studies of Great Britain and Sweden. It is found that on busy routes head-on competition is commercially feasible (although for rail this assumes low access charges) but is not socially desirable. For routes with thin demand (or high access costs), competition may be limited to cream skimming. In most competed cases, there appears to be a tendency for the provision of too much service, at too high price and (at least for bus) at too low quality. Rather than classical Bertrand-Cournot oligopoly models, transit markets may be best described by models of oligopolistic competition based on horizontal product differentiation.     

招投标机制的本质及最低价中标法的理论分析

根据建设市场的信息特征,剖析了招投标机制的本质与功能,在此基础上对最低价中标法进行了理论分析,最低价中标法是市场经济条件下的最优招标机制,结合目前我国建筑市场的大环境,探讨了最低价中标法在我国建设市场中的应用与前景,最低价中标法是我国建设市场交易方式发展的必然趋势。     

信息技术市场拓展方法研究

科学技术的发展遵循一定的轨迹,也会为信息技术市场带来必然的改变.面对众多的市场机会和激烈的竞争环境,需要通过科学有效的方法找准市场规律,以新的视角开拓差异化市场,使企业进入可持续发展的良性循环中.本文通过分析3种技术发展趋势,展开讨论了新市场的切入方法,并分享3个典型技术市场案例供读者思考.     

-statistic is the ratio between a normal (0,1) distributed variable and the square root of a centrally distributed chi-square variable divided by its expected value, i.e., its degree of freedom.

This paper evaluates empirically some very common theories of the freight rate generating process in the time charter markets. After a review of the most common assumptions made of the way time charter rates are set, the hypotheses are identified as follows: (a) the Zannetos Hypothesis, (b), the Lagged Zannetos Hypothesis, (c) the Koyck Lag Hypothesis, (d) the Rational Expectation Hypothesis, and (e) the Conventional Wisdom Hypothesis. These hypotheses are tested using statistical cointegration analysis that includes both an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and a Johansen likelihood ratio test. Confronted with the data, hypotheses (a) and (b) are rejected outrightly. In the Koyck Lag case, the ADF statistic seem to confirm the hypothesis. A closer look at the numbers reveals that all of the impact on the time charter rates comes from the lagged dependent variable. Hence, the Koyck Lag Hypothesis is rejected. In the Rational Expectation case, the two tests conflicted. Based on the fact that the Rational Expectation Hypothesis includes the lagged dependent variable and that the Johansen test has been found to be a more robust test than the ADF test, the Rational Expectation Hypothesis is rejected. The fifth hypothesis is a reflection of the general bulk industry perception that the time charter rate is impacted by changes in the comparable spot rate and not much by the spot rate levels. In this case both the ADF and the Johansen test accepted the hypothesis for all markets. Thus, the paper concludes that the conventional market explanation of the time charter freight rate setting process is essentially correct-spot rate changes matter spot rate levels do not.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

Workshop 3B: Governance,ownership and competition issues in deregulated (free market) public transport: Lessons that can be learnt from developed and developing economies

The past emphasis in this conference series has been on the best ways to deregulate regulated public transport markets. This workshop reverses this process by examining the best ways to regulate deregulated public transport markets. A hierarchy of regulatory needs is identified and three hybrid models examined, based loosely on experience from Great Britain, New Zealand and Sweden. It is argued that deregulated public transport markets are a global phenomenon but regulatory measures should reflect local requirements. The resultant process of glocalisation might result in regulatory measures that focus on the rules of law and their enforcement in emerging public transport markets (such as urban transport in Sub Saharan Africa and for the soon to be competitive inter urban market in Germany) but that focus on guidance for network integration and incentivisation for welfare maximisation in more mature public transport markets (as in Great Britain, New Zealand and Sweden).     

Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the level and volatility of spot (voyage) under bull and bear market conditions. The West African–US Gulf Tanker Rates, West Texas Intermediate spot and 3-month futures contract, and US Weekly Petroleum Inventories are analysed using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, from 1997 through 2007, in order to examine the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and tanker freight rates. Our findings show a relationship between spot and future crude oil prices, crude oil inventories and tanker rates. The significant increase of freight rates, and the simultaneous increase in oil prices, during the recent years, provides an intriguing economic environment to identify relationships between shipping market rates and oil prices. These relationships have significant implications for the markets. At the practical level, the better understanding of the relationship between freight rates and crude oil prices can improve operational management and budget planning decisions.     

2020年世界船舶市场评述与2021年展望

回顾了2020年世界经济、航运、造船市场,并对2021年船舶市场进行展望。2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,全球经济整体呈现负增长,导致航运各细分市场情况迥异,除集运市场年底火热外,其他市场均处于低迷状态。新船交付量整体大幅回落,与去年同比减少约31%,市场出现大面积撤单现象,仅海工市场基本面向好。新船建造市场受疫情影响,与2019年同期相比下跌约11%,散货船是今年交付量中唯一呈现增长的船型。2021年预计世界经济同比大幅反弹,航运市场需求将强于供给,市场形势总体将优于2020年;同时,考虑到疫情对市场的影响效应短期持续,预计世界船舶市场将逐步趋于理性,主要船型的新船订单量将朝着长期均衡方向逐步恢复增长,并且绿色和智能依旧是未来的大方向。     

Understanding the ocean container market—a seven country study [1]

Carrier selection criteria have been an issue in carrier marketing since the 1970s. Investigator location and interest has usually limited customer surveys to one geographic market. Market characteristics—differing purchase and service characteristics—have led to model seperation in the studies undertaken and sample size has constrained most researchers to reporting results as though customers were homogeneous in their needs. This has resulted in price versus service debates with conflicting conclusions. This paper explores the differences in the importance of various ocean container carrier selection criteria on the North Atlantic route for discrete geographic and customer segments. The paper reviewss the carrier selection literature and notes that carrier selection research to date has generally suffered from one or more of three problems: (1) because the research has focused on criteria 'importance', it has not identified determinants of purchase behaviour, that is, the 'salience' of different criteria; (2) the research has had sample size problems leading to the need to assume that the market is homogeneous or, less acceptable, that importance ratings will identify usable segments via factor analysis; and (3) carrier perfomance evaluation in conjucation with determinant criteria has largely been ignored. The paper focused on the problems surrounding the second of these by evaluating the relative importance of various service attributes for different geographic and customer dimensions. The paper concludes that the market is definitely not homogeneous in its requirements of carriers and that different elements surface as important both in identifiable geographical markets and customer groups. It also draws a number of conclusions about carrier choice in future and the implications for academic research.