Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States

This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software.     

重庆市内河航运危化品应急处置技术研究

近年来,重庆市逐步建成了沿江化工产业带,内河航道运输成为重庆市危化品运输的重要方式之一。为提升重庆市内河航运危化品安全,本文分析了重庆市内河航运危化品的种类,阐述了重庆市内河航运危化品典型事故案例,指出了重庆市内河航运危化品运输存在的问题,研究了相应的处置技术,从政府和企业角度提出了重庆市内河航运危化品应急处置的对策与建议。     

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

Analysis of the operational energy efficiency for inland river ships

This paper looks at the energy consumption and green house gas emissions of inland river shipping, and compares them with the performance of seagoing ships. The analysis is based on a case study of container shipping on the Yangtze River, China. Data were collected under both calm water and real navigation conditions, and energy efficiency operation indices under these conditions are calculated and analyzed. We find that the navigation environment can influence significantly the operational energy efficiency of inland river ships.     

Climate change impacts on transport on the Rhine and Danube: A multimodal approach

This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited.     

Inland waterway transport in the federal Republic of Germany: Situation and problems

Inland waterway transport in the Federal Republic of Germany, interconnecting 54 out of the 80 big cities, is mainly structured into small-scale enterprises. Organisation of transport, however, is mainly accommodated by a few large shipping firms. The increasing interest in inland waterway transport is due to increasing infrastructural bottlenecks in rail and road transport caused by integration, whereas waterways still have high capacity reserves. Furthermore, they are environmentally beneficial. Future problems, on the one hand, will arise from fundamental market and relating changes inland waterway transport has to adapt to within the scope of transport chain optimisation. On the other hand, the abolishment of fare regulation and the commercialisation of the railway companies will change the internal and external competitive conditions. An additional problem arises from future competition of inland vessels from Eastern European countries.     

Inland waterways—their role and significance in European transport

Summary

1) Western Europe has a navigable waterways‐network of about 19,000 kms. For the coming decades, however, about 40 percent of the length of these waterways has a very limited relevance, because of the small capacity of the barges that can pass along them.

2) Of the different types of barges the majority are the self‐propelled type. The importance of the pull‐towed barges is declining quickly, whereas the push‐towed barges are on the upswing.

3) The relative importance of inland shipping in comparison with rail transport is far from uniform. In The Netherlands inland shipping is dominant. On the other hand, in France, this mode of transport has only 30 percent of the total number of tons transported by inland shipping and railways together.

4) May the relative importance defer, there is a strong resemblance between the types of goods that are transported via the waterways with crude and manufactured minerals as well as building materials ranking high. In general, inland shipping is primarily involved in the transport of basic products and is of vital importance to the functioning of the West‐European economy.

5) The rather complicated legal regime of the waterways in Western Europe is certainly not the only reason why the integration in the transportation sector of the European Communities hardly moves on.

A fundamental discussion about the basic conceptions of the transport policy in the Common Market is unavoidable before real progress can be made. The entrance of the United Kingdom into the European Community may give an opening on this point.

6) Life goes on, with or without transport‐integration. Inland shipping moves forward too, paying for the use of infrastructure or not.

The general trends in transport support the expectation that the relative importance of inland shipping will increase in the coming decades. The increase in size of shipments and transport distances works in favour of this mode of transport. Besides this, inland shipping still has many possibilities to improve its productivity.

7) The future of inland shipping will be found in bulk transport and the transport of general cargo that has a volume per destination that goes far beyond the quantities for which the container or comparable types of transport units are better suited.     

Climate change projections for variables affecting road networks in Europe

Global climate change will affect road networks during this century. The effects will be different in various parts of the world due to differences in local climate change and in the structure and properties of roads. In this paper, climate change projections are presented for climate variables that are most likely to affect the long-term performance of road networks in Europe. We apply four regional climate simulations up to the year 2100 using two plausible future emission scenarios. The results show that the changing climate will require significant adaptation measures in the near future in order to maintain the operability of the European road network.     

An environmental economic analysis of the new rail link to European main port Rotterdam

After a long policy debate it has been decided to built in the near future a new rail link (Betuwe line) in the Netherlands to handle the rapidly increasing volume of goods to be transported from Rotterdam harbour to the centre of Europe. This study analyses its economic and environmental aspects and compares rail transport with road transport and transport on inland waterways. It is shown that transport by water will compete strongly with transport on the new railway and that water transport is attractive economically and environmentally.     

Power unit ‐ Cargo space link in inland waterway navigation

This paper deals with transportation technology regarding links between power unit or motor ship and ship cargo space. These links can be divided into two groups: rigid and flexible. Rigid link, established between power unit and cargo space, is dominant in maritime and road transport (sea ships and trucks), and occasionally in transport on inland waterways (self‐propelled barges). Flexible link is used in railroad transport (between the locomotive and railroad units), partially in road transport (systems with trailers and semitrailers), and in inland waterway transport (push‐towing, pulling systems and combinations of these systems). The main goal of this research is determination of possible link types and organization of fleet for transport on inland waterways in case of flexible link.     

内河码头项目水土保持方案编制特点初探

文章结合广西区内河流水文特征及内河码头项目施工工艺,从项目的水土流失特点、水土保持措施布设、水土保持监测和效益分析等方面着手,以柳州港鹧鸪江作业区6#～9#泊位工程及崇左港中心港濑湍作业区为例,探讨了内河码头项目水土保持方案编制特点。     

Evaluating the effects of climate change on road maintenance intervention strategies and Life-Cycle Costs

Climate change has the potential to impact long-term road pavement performance. Consequently, to maintain pavements within the same ranges of serviceability as before, current pavement maintenance strategies need to be re-assessed and, if necessary, changed. Changes in maintenance may lead to different agency costs and user costs as a consequence. This paper commences by defining an assessment procedure, showing how maintenance intervention strategies and Life-Cycle Costs (LCC) may be affected by future climate. A typical Virginia flexible pavement structure and anticipated climate change was used as an example. This example is believed to be representative for a great number of localities in the United States. A method using historical climatic data and climate change projections to predict pavement performance using Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) under current or future climate was introduced. Based on pavement performance prediction, maintenance interventions were planned and optimized. The maintenance effects of three treatments (thin overlay, thin overlay with an intermediate layer, and mill & fill) were considered. A Life-Cycle Cost analysis is reported that used binary non-linear programming to minimize the costs (either agency costs or total costs) by optimizing intervention strategies in terms of type and application time. By these means, the differences in maintenance planning and LCC under current and future climate can be derived. It was found, that for this simplified case study, pavement maintenance and LCC may be affected by climate change Optimized maintenance may improve resilience to climate change in terms of intervention strategy and LCC, compared to responsive maintenance.     

加大技术创新力度,提高航标维护管理质量

文章针对广西内河助航标现状,提出加大技术创新,对航标进行技改的思路。并对应用现有技术建设广西内河航标自动遥测系统进行探讨,为提高航标维护管理质量提供参考。     

Quantifying the climate impact of emissions from land-based transport in Germany

Although climate change is a global problem, specific mitigation measures are frequently applied on regional or national scales only. This is the case in particular for measures to reduce the emissions of land-based transport, which is largely characterized by regional or national systems with independent infrastructure, organization, and regulation. The climate perturbations caused by regional transport emissions are small compared to those resulting from global emissions. Consequently, they can be smaller than the detection limits in global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model simulations, hampering the evaluation of the climate benefit of mitigation strategies. Hence, we developed a new approach to solve this problem. The approach is based on a combination of a detailed three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model system, aerosol-climate response functions, and a zero-dimensional climate response model. For demonstration purposes, the approach was applied to results from a transport and emission modeling suite, which was designed to quantify the present-day and possible future transport activities in Germany and the resulting emissions. The results show that, in a baseline scenario, German transport emissions result in an increase in global mean surface temperature of the order of 0.01 K during the 21st century. This effect is dominated by the CO₂ emissions, in contrast to the impact of global transport emissions, where non-CO₂ species make a larger relative contribution to transport-induced climate change than in the case of German emissions. Our new approach is ready for operational use to evaluate the climate benefit of mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of transport emissions.     

External costs of electric vehicles

Electric vehicles (EV) are often considered a promising technology to decrease external costs of road transport. Therefore, main external cost components are estimated for EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). These include costs of accidents, air pollution, climate change, noise, and congestion. All components are estimated over the product lifetime and, where appropriate, differentiated according to fuel type, vehicle size as well as emission location and time. The advantage of this differentiation is, however, compensated by high uncertainties of most cost estimates. Overall, the external costs of EV and ICEV do not differ significantly. Only for climate change, local air pollutants in congested inner-cities, and noise some advantageous effects can be observed for EV. The advantages depend strongly on the national electricity power plant portfolio and potentially also on the charging strategy. Controlled charging might allow for higher emission reductions than uncontrolled charging of EV.     

内河电子航道图制作质量控制

文章介绍了内河电子航道图的定义及主要特点,并以柳江电子航道图制作为例,重点阐述了内河电子航道图的质量控制措施及电子航道图的发展前景。     

广西水运规费征收的现状和对策趋议

自“八五”期间全面开征水运规费以来,广西全区各项水运规费征收管理工作取得了令人瞩目的成绩。但是,随着水运市场经济和港航体制改革的不断深入发展,广西水运规费征收管理当中的各种矛盾和问题也日益凸现,对此,文章提出了一些解决的办法和措施,以供参考借鉴。     

FMOLP approach to the inland water transportation problem

Fuzzy optimization techniques can be applied in determining the optimal schedule for the transport of gravel by inland water transportation. Gravel demand, for example, is difficult to determine precisely since it depends on the industrial development of the regions supplied by gravel and on possible buyers. The duration of the annual navigation period varies depending on the water level, possible icebergs, heavy fog, strong and frequent wind. The transport company is usually satisfied if total transportation costs stay within a reasonable range. The formulation of a linear programme lacks flexibility in dealing with imprecise input data. In this paper this type of problem has been approached with fuzzy optimization techniques.     

Characteristics of European inland ports: A statistical analysis of inland waterway port development in Dutch municipalities

Most scientific attention in port studies centers on deep-sea ports, in particular container ports. In our paper, in contrast, we focus our attention on the characteristics of inland waterway ports in a European context. This is an overlooked part in the scientific literature on inland port development, which is up to now mainly concerned with US-based understandings of inland ports. We try to broaden the application of the inland port concept by explaining the development of inland ports in terms of inland waterway bounded cargo throughput. Based on a large-scale quantitative dataset of inland port development in Dutch municipalities we perform various statistical analyses to arrive at a more detailed understanding of the question: What are the characteristics of European inland waterway ports and what transport and economic factors influence cargo throughput on the municipal level? The results in particular highlight the importance of the presence of a container terminal, the diversity in types of goods which are being handled by the inland port and the accessibility of the inland port relative to the regional motorway network as important factors in explaining the size and growth of inland ports. Interestingly, the popular claim in policy of ‘investments in inland port development leading to employment growth’ cannot be confirmed.