Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part3, validation with Continuous Plankton Recorder data

Data collected during the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic ecosystem model simulation of the North-west European Shelf for the years 1988–89. The CPR time series is unique to the North Atlantic region as a validation tool. Data were extracted from the model to correspond with those collected by the CPR survey, and both the model and survey plankton data were standardised to allow the comparison of model biomass with survey counts. Simple linear regression and absolute error maps provide a qualitative evaluation of spatio-temporal model performance of simulated diatoms, flagellates, total phytoplankton and omnivorous mesozooplankton. Comparisons of z-scores indicate that the model reproduces the main pelagic seasonal features, and there is good correlation between magnitudes of these features with respect to standard deviations from a long-term mean. The model is replicating up to 62% of the mesozooplankton seasonality across the domain, with variable results for the phytoplankton. There are, however, differences in the timing of patterns in plankton seasonality. The validation exercise has highlighted that the spring diatom bloom in the model is too early, suggesting the need to reparameterise the response of phytoplankton to changing light levels in the model. Errors in the north and west of the domain imply that model turbulence and vertical density structure need to be improved to more accurately capture plankton dynamics.     

A numerical model of the long term flow along the Malin-Hebrides shelf

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Malin-Hebrides shelf region is used to investigate the spatial variability of the wind and tidally induced residual flow in the region and the influence of flow from the Irish Sea and along the shelf edge. By this means it is possible to understand the spatial variability in the long term observed flow fields in the region and the range of driving forces producing this flow. The model uses a sigma coordinate grid in the vertical with a finer grid in the near surface and near bed shear layers. The vertical diffusion of momentum in the model is parameterised using an eddy viscosity coefficient which is derived from turbulence energy closure models. Two different turbulence models are used to compute the eddy viscosity, namely a two-equation (itq²−q²ℓ) model which has prognostic equations for both turbulence energy and mixing length and a simpler model in which the mixing length is a specified algebraic function of the water depth.The wind induced response to spatially and temporally constant orthogonal wind stresses, namely westerly and southerly winds of 1 N m⁻², are derived from the model. By using orthogonal winds and assuming linearity, then to first order the response to any wind direction can be derived. Computed flows show a uniform wind driven surface layer of magnitude about 3% of the wind speed and direction 15 ° to the right of the wind, in deep water. Currents at depth particularly in the shelf edge and near coastal region show significant spatial variability which is related to variations in bottom topography and the coastline.Calculations show that tidal residual flows are only significant in the near coastal regions where the tidal current is strong and exhibits spatial variability. Flow into the region from the Irish Sea through the North Channel although having its greatest influence in the near coastal region, does affect currents near the shelf edge region. Again the spatial variability of the flow is influenced by topographic effects.A detailed examination of wind induced current profiles together with turbulence, mixing length and viscosity, at a number of locations in the model from deep ocean to shallow near coastal, shows that both turbulence models yield comparable results, with the mixing length in the two equation model showing a similar dependence to that specified in the simpler turbulence model.Calculations clearly show that flow along the shelf edge area to the west of Ireland and from the Irish Sea entering the region, together with local wind forcing can have a major effect upon currents along the Malin-Hebrides shelf. The flow fields show significant spatial variability in the region, comparable to those deduced from long term tracer measurements. The spatial variability found in the calculations suggests that a very intense measurement programme together with inflow measurements into the area is required to understand the circulation in the region, and provide data sets suitable for a rigorous model validation.     

An eddy-permitting, coupled ecosystem-circulation model of the Arabian Sea: comparison with observations

A nitrogen-based, pelagic ecosystem model has been coupled with an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model of the Arabian Sea, and the results are compared with observations. The seasonal variability simulated by the model is in good agreement with observations: during the southwest monsoon season, phytoplankton increases in the western Arabian Sea due to upwelling along the coast; during the northeast monsoon season, phytoplankton abundance is large in the northern Arabian Sea because of the enhanced nitrate entrained by relatively deep vertical mixing. Two major differences are, however, found in the basin-wide comparison between model results and observations: an unrealistic nitrate maximum in the subsurface layer of the northern Arabian Sea and too low primary production in oligotrophic regimes. The former may be attributed to the lack of denitrification in the model. Possible causes for the latter include the present model's underestimation of fast nutrient recycling, the neglect of carbon fixation decoupled from nitrogen uptake and of nitrogen fixation, and inadequate nitrate entrainment by mixed layer deepening. The rate at which simulated nitrate increases in the northern Arabian Sea is 11–24 TgN/year, and should correspond to the denitrification rate integrated over the northern Arabian Sea assuming that the loss of nitrogen through denitrification is balanced by advective input. The model does not reproduce the observed phytoplankton bloom in the late southwest monsoon season. Possible causes are that the mixed layer may be too shallow in summer and that the horizontal transport of nitrate from the coast of Oman may be too weak. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate a strong dependence of the simulated primary productivity on the vertical mixing scheme and on the inclusion of a fast recycling loop in the ecosystem model.     

Ecophysiological growth characteristics and modeling of the onset of the spring bloom in the Baltic Sea

The onset of spring bloom in temperate areas is a transition period where the low productive, winter phytoplankton community is transformed into a high productive spring community. Downwelling irradiance, mixing depth and the ability of the phytoplankton community to utilize the light, are key parameters determining the timing of the onset of the spring bloom. Knowing these parameters would thus provide tools for modeling the spring bloom and enhance our knowledge of ecophysiological processes during this period.Our main objective with this study was to provide data for the growth characteristics of some key species forming the spring bloom in the Gulf of Finland, and to apply those results in a simple dynamic model for the onset of the spring bloom, in order to test if the timing of the spring bloom predicted by the models corresponds to field observations. We investigated the photosynthetic characteristics of three diatoms and two dinoflagellates (Chaetoceros wighamii, Melosira arctica, Thalassiosira baltica, Scrippsiella hangoei and Woloszynskia halophila), at low temperatures (4–5 °C). All of these species are common during spring bloom in the Baltic Sea.Cultures of these species were acclimated to different irradiance regimes prior to measurements of photosynthesis, respiration, pigment concentration and light absorption. We did not find a positive relationship between respiration and growth rate, and we hypothesize that this relationship, which is well established at higher temperatures, is negligible or absent at low temperatures (< 10 °C). Photosynthetic maximum (P_m), and maximum light utilization coefficient (α) was lowest and respiration (R) highest in the dinoflagellates.We made a model of the onset of the spring bloom in the western part of Gulf of Finland, using the obtained data together with monitoring data of mixing depth and water transparency from this area. Model results were compared to field observations of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. There was a good agreement between the model predictions and the observed onset of the spring bloom for the diatoms. S. hangoei, however, was not able to reach positive production in the model, and W. halophila had the similar growth characteristics as S. hangoei. Consequently, these species must have other competition strategies enabling them to exist and grow during spring bloom.     

Shallow water processes govern system-wide phytoplankton bloom dynamics: A modeling study

A pseudo-two-dimensional numerical model of estuarine phytoplankton growth and consumption, vertical turbulent mixing, and idealized cross-estuary transport was developed and applied to South San Francisco Bay. This estuary has two bathymetrically distinct habitat types (deep channel, shallow shoal) and associated differences in local net rates of phytoplankton growth and consumption, as well as differences in the water column's tendency to stratify. Because many physical and biological time scales relevant to algal population dynamics decrease with decreasing depth, process rates can be especially fast in the shallow water. We used the model to explore the potential significance of hydrodynamic connectivity between a channel and shoal and whether lateral transport can allow physical or biological processes (e.g. stratification, benthic grazing, light attenuation) in one sub-region to control phytoplankton biomass and bloom development in the adjacent sub-region. Model results for South San Francisco Bay suggest that lateral transport from a productive shoal can result in phytoplankton biomass accumulation in an adjacent deep, unproductive channel. The model further suggests that turbidity and benthic grazing in the shoal can control the occurrence of a bloom system-wide; whereas, turbidity, benthic grazing, and vertical density stratification in the channel are likely to only control local bloom occurrence or modify system-wide bloom magnitude. Measurements from a related field program are generally consistent with model-derived conclusions.     

Steady-state single cell model simulations of photoacclimation in a vertically mixed layer: implications for biological tracer studies and primary productivity

A numerical single-cell photoacclimation–diffusion model was constructed and used to develop criteria regarding the use of individual phytoplankton cells as tracers for vertical mixing and to illustrate how rates of vertical mixing might affect phytoplankton physiology. Both first-order and logistic representations of photoacclimation kinetics were used. Steady state was assumed for simplicity and to provide a starting point for further investigations. The modeled variance and higher moments (within a phytoplankton population) of a generic photoacclimative parameter all show trends, which are diagnostic of mixing rates and/or boundary effects. This allowed the establishment of criteria by which frequency distributions of phytoplankton physiological properties (e.g., cell fluorescence) might be used as indicators of vertical mixing. The same model can be used to predict the effects of vertical mixing on phytoplankton productivity and growth. Application of the model to both photosynthesis and carbon to chlorophyll ratios suggested that a combination of vertical mixing and hysteresis (as represented in the logistic model of photoacclimation) in acclimation kinetics can enhance specific growth rates of phytoplankton. This enhanced growth occurred as a result of mixing-induced variation in carbon to chlorophyll ratios and is in contrast to chlorophyll-specific productivity, which was maximal at low mixing rates. Differential rates of photoacclimation to upward vs. downward shifts in irradiance, may enable phytoplankton cells to better survive in a turbulent environment.     

Convection and the seeding of the North Atlantic bloom

Observations of vertical velocities in deep wintertime mixed layers using neutrally buoyant floats show that the convectively driven vertical velocities, roughly 1000 m per day, greatly exceed the sinking velocities of phytoplankton, 10 m or less per day. These velocities mix plankton effectively and uniformly across the convective layer and are therefore capable of returning those that have sunk to depth back into the euphotic zone. This mechanism cycles cells through the surface layer during the winter and provides a seed population for the spring bloom. A simple model of this mechanism applied to immortal phytoplankton in the subpolar Labrador Sea predicts that the seed population in early spring will be a few percent of the fall concentration if the plankton sink more slowly than the mean rate at which the surface well-mixed layer grows over the winter. Plankton that sink faster than this will mostly sink into the abyss with only a minute fraction remaining by spring. The shallower mixed layers of mid-latitudes are predicted to be much less effective at maintaining a seed population over the winter, limiting the ability of rapidly sinking cells to survive the winter.     

Wind-triggered events of phytoplankton downward flux in the Northeast Water Polynya

Phytoplankton carbon fluxes were studied in the Northeast Water (NEW) Polynya, off the eastern coast of Greenland (79° to 81°N, 6° to 17°W), during summer 1993. The downward flux of organic particles was determined during 54 days using a sediment trap moored at a fixed location, below the pycnocline (130 m). The hypothesis of the present study is that wind events were ultimately responsible for the events of diatoms downward flux recorded in the trap.Wind conditions can influence the vertical transport of phytoplankton by affecting (1) the environmental conditions (e.g. hydrostatic pressure, nutrient concentrations, and irradiance) encountered by phytoplankton during their vertical excursion, and (2) the aggregation and disaggregation of phytoplankton flocs. The first mechanism affects the physiological regulation of buoyancy, whereas the second one affects the size and shape of settling particles.Using field data (wind velocity, density profiles and phytoplankton abundance), we assessed the potential aggregation and the vertical excursion of phytoplankton in surface waters. The results show that, upstream from the trap, wind and hydrodynamic conditions were sometimes favourable to the downward export of phytoplankton. Lag-correlation between time series of wind and phytoplankton downward flux shows that flux events lagged wind events by ca. 16 days. Given that the average current velocity in the top 100 m was ca. 10 cm s⁻¹, a lag of 16 days corresponded to a lateral transport of ca. 130 km, upstream from the sediment trap, where phytoplankton production was lower than at the location of the trap. According to that scenario, 21% to 60% of primary production was exported to depth during wind events. If we had assumed instead a tight spatial coupling between the material collected in the trap and the relatively high phytoplankton production at the location of the trap, we would have concluded that <7% of primary production was exported to depth. The difference between the two scenarios has great implications for the fate of phytoplankton. Our results stress the importance of investigating the spatial coupling between surface and trap data before assessing the pathways of phytoplankton carbon cycling.     

The onset of biological winter in the eastern Weddell Gyre (Antarctica) planktonic community

Data on hydrography, phyto- and zooplankton, obtained on a transect along the 0° meridian during the Winter Weddell Gyre Study, June 1992, revealed peculiarities of the early winter situation in the eastern Weddell Gyre. The vertical distribution and developmental stage composition of Rhincalanus gigas, Calanoides acutus, Calanus propinquus and krill, Euphausia superba larvae, were a good index for a general assessment of the seasonal condition of the plankton communities. There were five zones differing in seasonal situation: (1) The Polar Front and the southern ACC (not studied in detail), (2) The Weddell Front, (3) The Weddell Gyre interior, (4) The Maud Rise area, and (5) The Coastal Current zone. In the Weddell Front, the planktonic community resembled an autumnal situation with moderate phytoplankton biomass; the overwintering stock of copepods was not completely formed and the occurrence of calyptopes larvae of E. superba indicated that krill continued to reproduce until May. In the Weddell Gyre interior, a typical winter plankton community was found even before sea ice had formed. The specific hydrographic regime of the Maud Rise (governed by the mesoscale circulation over the seamount) support the late autumn conditions similar to the Weddell Front (but without early krill larvae). The plankton of the Coastal Current was a winter community. We conclude that in the eastern part of the Weddell Front (compared to the western part) seasonal development of both phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton is delayed in spring but prolonged in late autumn. Furthermore, it appears that the Weddell Sea ecosystem exhibits a much higher degree of spatial and temporal variability than thought before. This may have an impact on seasonal pattern of organic carbon transport from the pelagic realm to deeper water layers and to the sediment.     

Seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological processes during 1994–2001 in the Sea of Japan/East Sea: A three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical modeling study

A Pacific basin-wide physical–biogeochemical model has been used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological fields with analyses focusing on the Sea of Japan/East Sea (JES). The physical model is based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), and the biogeochemical model is based on the Carbon, Si(OH)₄, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model. The coupled ROMS–CoSiNE model is forced with the daily air–sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis for the period of 1994 to 2001, and the model results are used to evaluate climate impact on nutrient transport in Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the JES.The model reproduces several key features of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents, which are consistent with the previous modeling and observational results in the JES. The calculated volume transports through the three major straits show that the Korea Strait (KS) dominates the inflow to the JES with 2.46 Sv annually, and the Tsugaru Strait (TS) and the Soya Strait (SS) are major outflows with 1.85 Sv and 0.64 Sv, respectively. Domain-averaged phytoplankton biomass in the JES reaches its spring peak 1.8 mmol N m^− 3 in May and shows a relatively weak autumn increase in November. Strong summer stratification and intense consumption of nitrate by phytoplankton during the spring result in very low nitrate concentration at the upper layer, which limits phytoplankton growth in the JES during the summer. On the other hand, the higher grazer abundance likely contributes to the strong suppression of phytoplankton biomass after the spring bloom in the JES. The model results show strong interannual variability of SST, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass with sudden changes in 1998, which correspond to large-scale changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regional comparisons of interannual variations in springtime were made for the southern and northern JES. Variations of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass related to the PDO warm/cold phase changes were detected in both the southern and northern JES, and there were regional differences with respect to the mechanisms and timing. During the warm PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD increased in the south and decreased in the north in winter. Conversely, during the cold PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD decreased in the south and increased in the north. Wind divergence/convergence likely drives the differences in the southern and northern regions when northerly and northwesterly monsoon dominates in winter in the JES. Subjected to the nutrient change, the growth of phytoplankton biomass appears to be limited neither by nutrient nor by light consistently both in the southern and northern regions. Namely, the JES is at the transition zone of the lower trophic-level ecosystem between light-limited and nutrient-limited zones.     

Simulations of biological production in the Rhodes and Ionian basins of the eastern Mediterranean

The biological production characteristics of the Rhodes and western Ionian basins of the eastern Mediterranean are studied by a one-dimensional, coupled physical–biological model. The biological model involves single aggregated compartments of phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus as well as ammonium and nitrate forms of the inorganic nitrogen. It interacts with the physical model through the vertical eddy diffusivity which is calculated using the Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 turbulence parameterization. The model simulations demonstrate the importance of the contrasting physical oceanographic characteristics of these two basins on affecting their yearly planktonic structures. The annual primary production in the Rhodes basin is estimated as 97 g C m² yr⁻¹ which is comparable with the northwestern Mediterranean. The western Ionian basin, on the contrary, possesses only 10% of the Rhodes' productivity and therefore represent a most oligotrophic site in the eastern Mediterranean. The Rhodes basin reveals a strong bloom in early spring, typically in March, a weaker bloom in early winter, typically in January, and a subsurface production below the seasonal thermocline during summer. This structure is slightly modified in the western Ionian basin, and the early winter and early spring blooms are merged to cover the entire winter. These results are supported favorably by the available observations both in their magnitudes and timing.     

On the dense water spreading off the Ross Sea shelf (Southern Ocean)

In this study, current meter and hydrological data obtained during the X Italian Expedition in the Ross Sea (CLIMA Project) are analyzed. Our data show a nice agreement with previous data referring to the water masses present in this area and their dynamics. Here, they are used to further analyze the mixing and deepening processes of Deep Ice Shelf Water (DISW) over the northern shelf break of the Ross Sea. In more detail, our work is focused on the elementary mechanisms that are the most efficient in removing dense water from the shelf: either classical mixing effects or density currents that interact with some topographic irregularity in order to drop to deeper levels, or also the variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which, in its meandering, can push the dense water off the shelf, thus interrupting its geostrophic flow. We also discuss in detail the (partial) evidence of dramatic interactions of the dense water with bottom particulate, of geological or biological origin, thus generating impulsive or quasi-steady density-turbidity currents. This complex interaction allows one to consider bottom particular and dense water as a unique self-interacting system. In synthesis, this is a first tentative analysis of the effect of bottom particulate on the dense water dynamics in the Ross Sea.     

Using a random displacement model to simulate turbulent particle motion in a baroclinic frontal zone: A new implementation scheme and model performance tests

Numerical artifacts can limit accurate simulation of turbulent particle motion when Lagrangian particle-tracking models are implemented in hydrodynamic models with stratified conditions like fronts. Yet, modeling of individual particle motion in frontal regions is critical for understanding sediment dynamics as well as the transport and retention of planktonic organisms. The objective of this research was to develop a numerical technique to accurately simulate turbulent particle motions in a particle-tracking model embedded within a hydrodynamic model of a frontal zone. A new interpolation scheme, the ‘water column profile’ scheme, was developed and used to implement a random displacement model for turbulent particle motions. A new interpolation scheme was necessary because linear interpolation schemes caused artificial aggregation of particles where abrupt changes in vertical diffusivity occurred. The new ‘water column profile’ scheme was used to fit a continuous function (a tension spline) to a smoothed profile of vertical diffusivities at the x–y particle location. The new implementation scheme was checked for artifacts and compared with a standard random walk model using (1) Well Mixed Condition tests, and (2) dye-release experiments. The Well Mixed Condition tests confirmed that the use of the ‘water column profile’ interpolation scheme for implementing the random displacement model significantly reduced numerical artifacts. In dye-release experiments, high concentrations of Eulerian tracer and Lagrangian particles were released at the same location up-estuary of the salt front and tracked for 4 days. After small differences in initial dispersal rates, tracer and particle distributions remained highly correlated (r = 0.84 to 0.99) when a random displacement model was implemented in the particle-tracking model. In contrast, correlation coefficients were substantially lower (r = 0.07 to 0.58) when a random walk model was implemented. In general, model performance tests indicated that the ‘water column interpolation’ scheme was an effective technique for implementing a random displacement model within a hydrodynamic model, and both could be used to accurately simulate diffusion in a highly baroclinic frontal region. The new implementation scheme has the potential to be a useful tool for investigating the influence of hydrodynamic variability on the transport of sediment particles and planktonic organisms in frontal zones.     

Study of the seasonal cycle of the biogeochemical processes in the Ligurian Sea using a 1D interdisciplinary model

A one-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model has been built to study the pelagic food web of the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean Sea). The physical model is the turbulent closure model (version 1D) developed at the GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Laboratory (GHER) of the University of Liège. The ecosystem model contains 19 state variables describing the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the pelagic food web. Phytoplankton and zooplankton are both divided in three size-based compartments and the model includes an explicit representation of the microbial loop including bacteria, dissolved organic matter, nano-, and microzooplankton. The internal carbon/nitrogen ratio is assumed variable for phytoplankton and detritus, and constant for zooplankton and bacteria. Silicate is considered as a potential limiting nutrient of phytoplankton's growth. The aggregation model described by Kriest and Evans in (Proc. Ind. Acad. Sci., Earth Planet. Sci. 109 (4) (2000) 453) is used to evaluate the sinking rate of particulate detritus. The model is forced at the air–sea interface by meteorological data coming from the “Côte d'Azur” Meteorological Buoy. The dynamics of atmospheric fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea (DYFAMED) time-series data obtained during the year 2000 are used to calibrate and validate the biological model. The comparison of model results within in situ DYFAMED data shows that although some processes are not represented by the model, such as horizontal and vertical advections, model results are overall in agreement with observations and differences observed can be explained with environmental conditions.     

Swimming for survival: A role of phytoplankton motility in a stratified turbulent environment

We investigate a role for vertical migration in stratified coastal water, where the swimming speed is generally significantly less than the typical turbulent fluctuations in a tidally-mixed bottom layer. In our modelling approach we use a k- turbulence model to describe the physical forcing, a Lagrangian random walk model to describe the vertical displacement of individual cells in response to turbulence and due to cell motility, and a phytoplankton growth model to direct the swimming behaviour of the phytoplankton according to their light and nutrient requirements. The model results show how the cells form a stable subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) at the base of the thermocline where episodic tidal turbulence causes erosion of part of the SCM biomass into the bottom mixed layer (BML). We then focus on the question of whether an ability to swim (weakly, compared to typical bottom layer turbulent intensities) provides any advantage by allowing return to the SCM. Our results show that tidal turbulence in the BML helps both motile and neutrally-buoyant cells by periodically pushing them into the base of the thermocline. Motile cells then have the advantage that they can swim further into the thermocline towards higher light which also reduces the likelihood of being re-mixed back into the BML.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

Investigation of model and parameter uncertainty in water quality models using a random walk method

A mathematical model to predict the effect of chemical spills in the Forth estuary in Scotland has been in use for many years. The model, based on the random walk method, predicts chemical concentrations in the estuary waters and estimates the elapsed time before the dilution is sufficient to render the spill harmless (making use of a toxicity measure such as the LC50 or a water quality standard). The model gives a deterministic result without any estimate of the uncertainty. Field studies using tracer dyes to measure the horizontal and vertical mixing rates in the estuary show that these rates vary over time. The literature on turbulent diffusion includes modelling applications using different parameterisations of the mixing process. This paper investigates the uncertainties in predicted concentrations due to model parameterisation of horizontal mixing and due to the variability in the measured mixing rates determined from surveys in the estuary. Estimates of the range of concentrations for a specific spill scenario are presented.The study shows that model formulation and parameter uncertainty are both important factors in estimating the uncertainty in model predictions. The uncertainty caused by the variations with time found in the measured mixing rates is found to be of similar magnitude to the differences in concentration resulting from using three different methods for modelling the horizontal mixing in the estuary. Uncertainties associated with model formulation could be reduced if a small number of longer timescale (e.g. 24 h) dispersion experiments were available. In addition, further data from short-term (3 h) dispersion experiments would give a better understanding of the distribution of mixing coefficients and how the mixing relates to other parameters such as tidal range and wind speed and direction.     

Phytoplankton patch patterns: Seascape anatomy in a turbulent ocean

Marine phytoplankton experience competition, predation, infection and aggregation occurring across distances of micrometres to centimetres. However, the consequences of these interactions influence global processes, such as climate and fisheries productivity. There is a long-standing default assumption that these global processes cannot be traced to plankton distributions and interactions below a few metres because of the homogenising effect of turbulence [Hutchinson, G.E., 1961. The paradox of the plankton. Am. Nat. 95, 137–146.; Siegel, D.A., 1998. Resource competition in a discrete environment: Why are plankton distributions paradoxical? Limnol. Oceanogr. 43, 1133–1146.]. We show that, in active turbulence, phytoplankton patches, on the order of 10 cm, have repeatable asymmetry and regular spacing over distances of centimetres to tens of metres. The regularity and hierarchical nature of the patches in mixed ocean water means that phytoplankton are distributed in a dynamic, but definite seascape topography, where groups of patches coalesce between intermittent turbulent eddies. These patches may link large scale processes and microscale interactions, acting as fundamental components of marine ecosystems that influence grazing efficiency, taxonomic diversity, and the initiation of aggregation and subsequent carbon flux.