Evaluating the benefits of a combined route guidance and road pricing system in a traffic network with recurrent congestion

When drivers do not have complete information on road travel time and thus choose their routes in a stochastic manner or based on their previous experience, separate implementations of either route guidance or road pricing cannot drive a stochastic network flow pattern towards a system optimum in a Wardropian sense. It is thus of interest to consider a combined route guidance and road pricing system. A road guidance system could reduce drivers' uncertainty of travel time through provision of traffic information. A driver who is equipped with a guidance system could be assumed to receive complete information, and hence be able to find the minimum travel time routes in a user-optimal manner, while marginal-cost road pricing could drive a user-optimal flow pattern toward a system optimum. Therefore, a joint implementation of route guidance and road pricing in a network with recurrent congestion could drive a stochastic network flow pattern towards a system optimum, and thus achieve a higher reduction in system travel time. In this paper the interaction between route guidance and road pricing is modeled and the potential benefit of their joint implementation is evaluated based on a mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model. The private and system benefits under marginal-cost pricing and varied levels of market penetration of the information systems are investigated with a small and a large example. It is concluded that the two technologies complement each other and that their joint implementation can reduce travel time more efficiently in a network with recurrent congestion.     

The optimization of lane assignment and signal timing at the tandem intersection with pre‐signal

This paper presents an integrated model for optimizing lane assignment and signal timing at tandem intersection, which is introduced recently. The pre‐signal is utilized in the tandem intersection to reorganize the traffic flow; hence, the vehicles, regardless of whether left‐turns or through vehicles, can be discharged in all the lanes. However, the previous work does not consider the extra traffic disruption and the associated delay caused by the additional pre‐signal. In the paper, the extra delay aroused by the coordination is incorporated in a lane assignment and signal timing optimization model, and the problem is converted into a mixed‐integer non‐linear programming. A feasible directions method is hence introduced to solve the mixed‐integer non‐linear programming. The result of the optimization shows that the performance of the tandem intersection is improved and the average delay is minimized. The comparison between the tandem and the conventional configuration is presented, and the results verify that the former shows better performance than the latter. In addition, the optimal sequence corresponding to the turning proportion and the optimal lane assignment at the upstream approach of the pre‐signal are presented. Furthermore, if the number of lanes is equal in all arms, the paper proves that the average delay will be reduced if lane assignment is proportional to the turning proportion and the vehicles with low proportion are discharged in advance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multimodal,multiclass stochastic dynamic traffic assignment for evaluating information provision strategies

A multimodal, multiclass stochastic dynamic traffic assignment model was developed to evaluate pre‐trip and enroute travel information provision strategies. Three different information strategies were examined: user optimum [UO], system optimum [SO] and mixed optimum [MO]. These information provision strategies were analyzed based on the levels of traffic congestion and market penetration rate for the information equipment. Only two modes, bus and car, were used for evaluating and calculating the modal split ratio. Several scenarios were analyzed using day‐to‐day and within day dynamic models. From the results analyzed, it was found that when a traffic manager provides information for drivers using the UO strategy and drivers follow the provided information absolutely, the total travel time may increases over the case with no information. Such worsening occurs when drivers switch their routes and face traffic congestion on the alternative route. This phenomenon is the 'Braess Paradox'.     

A gradient boosting logit model to investigate driver’s stop-or-run behavior at signalized intersections using high-resolution traffic data

Driver’s stop-or-run behavior at signalized intersection has become a major concern for the intersection safety. While many studies were undertaken to model and predict drivers’ stop-or-run (SoR) behaviors including Yellow-Light-Running (YLR) and Red-Light-Running (RLR) using traditional statistical regression models, a critical problem for these models is that the relative influences of predictor variables on driver’s SoR behavior could not be evaluated. To address this challenge, this research proposes a new approach which applies a recently developed data mining approach called gradient boosting logit model to handle different types of predictor variables, fit complex nonlinear relationships among variables, and automatically disentangle interaction effects between influential factors using high-resolution traffic and signal event data collected from loop detectors. Particularly, this research will first identify a series of related influential factors including signal timing information, surrounding traffic information, and surrounding drivers’ behaviors using thousands drivers’ decision events including YLR, RLR, and first-to-stop (FSTP) extracted from high-resolution loop detector data from three intersections. Then the research applies the proposed data mining approach to search for the optimal prediction model for each intersection. Furthermore, a comparison was conducted to compare the proposed new method with the traditional statistical regression model. The results show that the gradient boosting logit model has superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. In contrast to other machine learning methods which usually apply ‘black-box’ procedures, the gradient boosting logit model can identify and rank the relative importance of influential factors on driver’s stop-or-run behavior prediction. This study brings great potential for future practical applications since loops have been widely implemented in many intersections and can collect data in real time. This research is expected to contribute to the improvement of intersection safety significantly.     

Signalized intersections with variable flow rates: I analysis and simulation

One of the most common measures of signalized intersection operation is the amount of delay a vehicle incurs while passing through the intersection. Traditional models for estimating vehicle delay at intersections generally assume fixed signal timing and uniform arrival rates for vehicles approaching the intersection. One would expect that highly variable arrival rates would result in much longer delays than uniform arrival rates of the same average magnitude. Furthermore, one might expect that signal timing that is adjusted according to traffic volume would result in lower delay signal when variations in flow warrant such adjustable timing. This paper attempts to test several hypotheses concerning the effects of variable traffic arrival rates and adjusted signal timing through the use of simulation. The simulation results corroborate the hypothesis concerning the effect of varying arrival rates. As the variance of the arrival rate over time increases, the average delay per vehicle also increases. Signal timing adjustments based on traffic appear to decrease delay when flow rates vary greatly. As flow variations stabilize, the benefits of signal adjustments tend to diminish.     

Analysis of intersection delay under real-time adaptive signal control

The United States Department of Transportation has recently begun implementation of the national demonstration project for suburban Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) utilizing the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS). SCATS is an automated, real time, traffic responsive signal control strategy. The expected benefit from the system comes from its ability to constantly modify signal timing patterns to most effectively accommodate changing traffic conditions. The objectives of this research study were to analyze the differences in certain delay parameters which would occur as a result of implementing SCATS signal control. The study employed a macroscopic simulation procedure to compute intersection delay under both a strategy that changed signal timings once per hour and SCATS signal control. A comparison of delay under both forms of control is presented. The study findings demonstrated mixed results regarding the benefit of SCATS control. A general conclusion of the study was that SCATS distributed the delay across competing approaches more evenly. However, in some cases this resulted in an increase in the total intersection delay. The observed delay change was attributed primarily to the saturation equalization objective of the SCATS control program. SCATS attempts to allocate green time to the intersection approaches based on the degree of saturation. Under this philosophy the system is able to balance the percentage of green time between all approaches, resulting in more uniform delay.     

Integration of signal timing estimation model and dynamic traffic assignment in feedback loops: system design and case study

This paper presents an integrated framework for effective coupling of a signal timing estimation model and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in feedback loops. There are many challenges in effectively integrating signal timing tools with DTA software systems, such as data availability, exchange format, and system coupling. In this research, a tight coupling between a DTA model with various queue‐based simulation models and a quick estimation method Excel‐based signal control tool is achieved and tested. The presented framework design offers an automated solution for providing realistic signal timing parameters and intersection movement capacity allocation, especially for future year scenarios. The framework was used to design an open‐source data hub for multi‐resolution modeling in analysis, modeling and simulation applications, in which a typical regional planning model can be quickly converted to microscopic traffic simulation and signal optimization models. The coupling design and feedback loops are first demonstrated on a simple network, and we examine the theoretically important questions on the number of iterations required for reaching stable solutions in feedback loops. As shown in our experiment, the current coupled application becomes stable after about 30 iterations, when the capacity and signal timing parameters can quickly converge, while DTA's route switching model predominately determines and typically requires more iterations to reach a stable condition. A real‐world work zone case study illustrates how this application can be used to assess impacts of road construction or traffic incident events that disrupt normal traffic operations and cause route switching on multiple analysis levels. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An investigation of the reliability of real-time information for route choice decisions in a congested traffic system

This paper investigates the reliability of information on prevailing trip times on the links of a network as a basis for route choice decisions by individual drivers. It considers a type of information strategy in which no attempt is made by some central controller or coordinating entity to predict what the travel times on each link would be by the time it is reached by a driver that is presently at a given location. A specially modified model combining traffic simulation and path assignment capabilities is used to analyze the reliability of the real-time information supplied to the drivers. This is accomplished by comparing the supplied travel times (at the link and path levels) to the actual trip times experienced in the network after the information has been given. In addition, the quality of the decisions made by drivers on the basis of this information (under alternative path switching rules) is evaluated ex-post by comparing the actually experienced travel time (given the decision made) to the time that the driver would have experienced without the real-time information. Results of a series of simulation experiments under recurrent congestion conditions are discussed, illustrating the interactions between information reliability and user response.     

Dynamic traffic routing in a network with adaptive signal control

In real traffic networks, travellers’ route choice is affected by traffic control strategies. In this research, we capture the interaction between travellers’ route choice and traffic signal control in a coherent framework. For travellers’ route choice, a VANET (Vehicular Ad hoc NETwork) is considered, where travellers have access to the real-time traffic information through V2V/V2I (Vehicle to Vehicle/Vehicle to Infrastructure) infrastructures and make route choice decisions at each intersection using hyper-path trees. We test our algorithm and control strategy by simulation in OmNet++ (A network communication simulator) and SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility) under several scenarios. The simulation results show that with the proposed dynamic routing, the overall travel cost significantly decreases. It is also shown that the proposed adaptive signal control reduces the average delay effectively, as well as reduces the fluctuation of the average speed within the whole network.     

Iterative procedure for equilibrium network traffic signal setting

The Equilibrium Network Traffic Signal Setting problem is an open research area. It can be approached using global optimization models or iterative procedures. In this paper, after a brief review of the state of the art, the main characteristics of the iterative procedure ENETS are described. In this procedure, traffic signal setting is performed in two successive steps: green timing and scheduling at each junction, and signal coordination on the network. Green timing and scheduling at a single junction is based on a mixed-binary linear program with capacity factor maximization. Signal coordination for the whole network is performed by solving a discrete programming model with total delay minimization. The flow assignment stage refers to the separable user equilibrium model with fixed demand, and uses a feasible direction algorithm, which can also be adopted to cover the cases of elastic demand and/or asymmetric equilibrium. An experimental test of ENETS on a small network and a graphical explanation of the procedure are described and discussed.     

Formulating the within-day dynamic stochastic traffic assignment problem from a Bayesian perspective

This study proposes a formulation of the within-day dynamic stochastic traffic assignment problem. Considering the stochastic nature of route choice behavior, we treat the solution to the assignment problem as the conditional joint distribution of route traffic, given that the network is in dynamic stochastic user equilibrium. We acquire the conditional joint probability distribution using Bayes’ theorem. A Metropolis–Hastings sampling scheme is developed to estimate the characteristics (e.g., mean and variance) of the route traffic. The proposed formulation has no special requirements for the traffic flow models and user behavior models, and so is easily implemented.     

Route Choice Models Used in the Stochastic User Equilibrium Problem: A Review

Several route choice models are reviewed in the context of the stochastic user equilibrium problem. The traffic assignment problem has been extensively studied in the literature. Several models were developed focusing mainly on the solution of the link flow pattern for congested urban areas. The behavioural assumption governing route choice, which is the essential part of any traffic assignment model, received relatively much less attention. The core of any traffic assignment method is the route choice model. In the wellknown deterministic case, a simple choice model is assumed in which drivers choose their best route. The assumption of perfect knowledge of travel costs has been long considered inadequate to explain travel behaviour. Consequently, probabilistic route choice models were developed in which drivers were assumed to minimize their perceived costs given a set of routes. The objective of the paper is to review the different route choice models used to solve the traffic assignment problem. Focus is on the different model structures. The paper connects some of the route choice models proposed long ago, such as the logit and probit models, with recently developed models. It discusses several extensions to the simple logit model, as well as the choice set generation problem and the incorporation of the models in the assignment problem.     

Behavior-consistent real-time traffic routing under information provision

The problem addressed here involves a controller seeking to enhance traffic network performance via real-time routing information provision to drivers while explicitly accounting for drivers’ likely reactions towards the information. A fuzzy control modeling approach is used to determine the associated behavior-consistent information-based network control strategies. Experiments are performed to compare the effectiveness of the behavior-consistent approach with traditional dynamic traffic assignment based approaches for deployment. The results show the importance of incorporating driver behavior realistically in the determination of the information strategies. Significant differences in terms of system travel time savings and compliance to the information strategies can be obtained when the behavior-consistent approach is compared to the traditional approaches. The behavior-consistent approach can provide more robust performance compared to the standard user or system optimal information strategies. Subject to a meaningful estimation of driver behavior, it can ensure system performance improvement. By contrast, approaches that do not seek to simultaneously achieve the objectives of the drivers and the controller can potentially deteriorate system performance because the controller may over-recommend or under-recommend some routes, or recommend routes that are not considered by the drivers.     

The existence, uniqueness and computation of an arc-based dynamic network user equilibrium formulation

In this paper, a dynamic user equilibrium traffic assignment model with simultaneous departure time/route choices and elastic demands is formulated as an arc-based nonlinear complementarity problem on congested traffic networks. The four objectives of this paper are (1) to develop an arc-based formulation which obviates the use of path-specific variables, (2) to establish existence of a dynamic user equilibrium solution to the model using Brouwer's fixed-point theorem, (3) to show that the vectors of total arc inflows and associated minimum unit travel costs are unique by imposing strict monotonicity conditions on the arc travel cost and demand functions along with a smoothness condition on the equilibria, and (4) to develop a heuristic algorithm that requires neither a path enumeration nor a storage of path-specific flow and cost information. Computational results are presented for a simple test network with 4 arcs, 3 nodes, and 2 origin–destination pairs over the time interval of 120 periods.     

An iterative group-based signal optimization scheme for traffic equilibrium networks

This paper presents an iterative scheme for a combined signal optimization and assignment problem, using a traffic model from the well-known procedure TRANSYT. The signal settings are optimized by means of a group-based technique, in which the signal timings are specified by the common cycle time, the start time and duration of the period of right of way for each signal group in the network. The optimization problem was formulated as an integer program and solved by a set of heuristics. Given the optimized signal settings determined from the group-based technique, a path-based assignment algorithm is employed to obtain the equilibrium traffic pattern using the sensitivity information for TRANSYT model and a Frank-Wolf method. Based on the equilibrium flow pattern, the group-based optimization algorithm is then used to determine a better set of signal timings. The procedure is repeated until certain convergence criteria are satisfied. A numerical example is employed to demonstrate the benefits obtained from this iterative scheme. Encouraging results are obtained.     

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework.The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamics.     

Using connected vehicle technology to improve the efficiency of intersections

Information from connected vehicles, such as the position and speed of individual vehicles, can be used to optimize traffic operations at an intersection. This paper proposes such an algorithm for two one-way-streets assuming that only a certain percentage of cars are equipped with this technology. The algorithm enumerates different sequences of cars discharging from the intersection to minimize the objective function. Benefits of platooning (multiple cars consecutively discharging from a queue) and signal flexibility (adaptability to demand) are also considered. The goal is to gain insights about the value (in terms of delay savings) of using connected vehicle technology for intersection control.Simulations are conducted for different total demand values and demand ratios to understand the effects of changing the minimum green time at the signal and the penetration rate of connected cars. Using autonomous vehicle control systems, the signal could rapidly change the direction of priority without relying on the reaction of drivers. However, without this technology a minimum green time is necessary. The results of the simulations show that a minimum green time increases the delay only for the low and balanced demand scenarios. Therefore, the value of using cars with autonomous vehicle control can only be seen at intersections with this kind of demand patterns, and could result in up to 7% decrease in delay. On the other hand, using information from connected vehicles to better adapt the traffic signal has proven to be indeed very valuable. Increases in the penetration rate from 0% up to 60% can significantly reduce the average delay (in low demand scenarios a decrease in delay of up to 60% can be observed). That being said, after a penetration rate of 60%, while the delays continue to decrease, the rate of reduction decreases and the marginal value of information from communication technologies diminishes. Overall, it is observed that connected vehicle technology could significantly improve the operation of traffic at signalized intersections, at least under the proposed algorithm.     

Macroscopic relations of urban traffic variables: Bifurcations, multivaluedness and instability

Recent experimental work has shown that the average flow and average density within certain urban networks are related by a unique, reproducible curve known as the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD). For networks consisting of a single route this MFD can be predicted analytically; but when the networks consist of multiple overlapping routes experience shows that the flows observed in congestion for a given density are less than those one would predict if the routes were homogeneously congested and did not overlap. These types of networks also tend to jam at densities that are only a fraction of their routes’ average jam density.This paper provides an explanation for these phenomena. It shows that, even for perfectly homogeneous networks with spatially uniform travel patterns, symmetric equilibrium patterns with equal flows and densities across all links are unstable if the average network density is sufficiently high. Instead, the stable equilibrium patterns are asymmetric. For this reason the networks jam at lower densities and exhibit lower flows than one would predict if traffic was evenly distributed.Analysis of small idealized networks that can be treated as simple dynamical systems shows that these networks undergo a bifurcation at a network-specific critical density such that for lower densities the MFDs have predictably high flows and are univalued, and for higher densities the order breaks down. Microsimulations show that this bifurcation also manifests itself in large symmetric networks. In this case though, the bifurcation is more pernicious: once the network density exceeds the critical value, the stable state is one of complete gridlock with zero flow. It is therefore important to ensure in real-world applications that a network’s density never be allowed to approach this critical value.Fortunately, analysis shows that the bifurcation’s critical density increases considerably if some of the drivers choose their routes adaptively in response to traffic conditions. So far, for networks with adaptive drivers, bifurcations have only been observed in simulations, but not (yet) in real life. This could be because real drivers are more adaptive than simulated drivers and/or because the observed real networks were not sufficiently congested.     

Routing aspects of electric vehicle drivers and their effects on network performance

This study investigates the routing aspects of battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers and their effects on the overall traffic network performance. BEVs have unique characteristics such as range limitation, long battery recharging time, and recuperation of energy lost during the deceleration phase if equipped with regenerative braking system (RBS). In addition, the energy consumption rate per unit distance traveled is lower at moderate speed than at higher speed. This raises two interesting questions: (i) whether these characteristics of BEVs will lead to different route selection compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and (ii) whether such route selection implications of BEVs will affect the network performance. With the increasing market penetration of BEVs, these questions are becoming more important. This study formulates a multi-class dynamic user equilibrium (MCDUE) model to determine the equilibrium flows for mixed traffic consisting of BEVs and ICEVs. A simulation-based solution procedure is proposed for the MCDUE model. In the MCDUE model, BEVs select routes to minimize the generalized cost which includes route travel time, energy related costs and range anxiety cost, and ICEVs to minimize route travel time. Results from numerical experiments illustrate that BEV drivers select routes with lower speed to conserve and recuperate battery energy while ICEV drivers select shortest travel time routes. They also illustrate that the differences in route choice behavior of BEV and ICEV drivers can synergistically lead to reduction in total travel time and the network performance towards system optimum under certain conditions.     

Paradoxes of reservation-based intersection controls in traffic networks

Reservation-based intersection control is a revolutionary idea for using connected autonomous vehicle technologies to improve intersection controls. Vehicles individually request permission to follow precise paths through the intersection at specific times from an intersection manager agent. Previous studies have shown that reservations can reduce delays beyond optimized signals in many demand scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that signals can outperform reservations through theoretical and realistic examples. We present two examples that exploit the reservation protocol to prioritize vehicles on local roads over vehicles on arterials, increasing the total vehicle delay. A third theoretical example demonstrates that reservations can encourage selfish route choice leading to arbitrarily large queues. Next, we present two realistic networks taken from metropolitan planning organization data in which reservations perform worse than signals. We conclude with significantly positive results from comparing reservations and signals on the downtown Austin grid network using dynamic traffic assignment. Overall, these results indicate that network-based analyses are needed to detect adverse route choices before traffic signals can be replaced with reservation controls. In asymmetric intersections (e.g. local road-arterial intersections), reservation controls can cause several potential issues. However, in networks with more symmetric intersections such as a downtown grid, reservations have great potential to improve traffic.