Quantifying the climate impact of emissions from land-based transport in Germany

Although climate change is a global problem, specific mitigation measures are frequently applied on regional or national scales only. This is the case in particular for measures to reduce the emissions of land-based transport, which is largely characterized by regional or national systems with independent infrastructure, organization, and regulation. The climate perturbations caused by regional transport emissions are small compared to those resulting from global emissions. Consequently, they can be smaller than the detection limits in global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model simulations, hampering the evaluation of the climate benefit of mitigation strategies. Hence, we developed a new approach to solve this problem. The approach is based on a combination of a detailed three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model system, aerosol-climate response functions, and a zero-dimensional climate response model. For demonstration purposes, the approach was applied to results from a transport and emission modeling suite, which was designed to quantify the present-day and possible future transport activities in Germany and the resulting emissions. The results show that, in a baseline scenario, German transport emissions result in an increase in global mean surface temperature of the order of 0.01 K during the 21st century. This effect is dominated by the CO₂ emissions, in contrast to the impact of global transport emissions, where non-CO₂ species make a larger relative contribution to transport-induced climate change than in the case of German emissions. Our new approach is ready for operational use to evaluate the climate benefit of mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of transport emissions.     

Leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory to build climate resilience in transport infrastructure

ABSTRACT

Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to transport infrastructure that include disrupted operations, reduced lifespan and increased reconstruction and maintenance costs. Efforts to decrease the vulnerability of transport networks have been largely limited to understanding projected risks through governance and administrative efforts. Where physical adaptation measures have been implemented, these have typically aligned with a traditional “engineering resilience” approach of increasing the strength and rigidity of assets to withstand the impacts of climate change and maintain a stable operating state. Such systems have limited agility and are susceptible to failure from “surprise events”. Addressing these limitations, this paper considers an alternate approach to resilience, inspired by natural ecosystems that sense conditions in real-time, embrace multi-functionality and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. Such systems embrace and thrive on unpredictability and instability. This paper synthesises key literature in climate adaptation and socio-ecological resilience theory to propose a shift in paradigm for transport infrastructure design, construction and operation, towards engineered systems that can transform, evolve and internally manage vulnerability. The authors discuss the opportunity for biomimicry (innovation inspired by nature) as an enabling discipline for supporting resilient and regenerative infrastructure, introducing three potential tools and frameworks. The authors conclude the importance of leveraging socio-ecological resilience theory, building on the achievements in engineering resilience over the past century. These findings have immediate practical applications in redefining resilience approaches for new transport infrastructure projects and transport infrastructure renewal.     

Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case

Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies.     

Through the storm: Transit agency management in response to climate change

The increase in extreme weather events due to climate change poses serious challenges to public transit systems. These events disrupt transit operations, impair service quality, increase threats to public safety, and damage infrastructure. Despite the growing risk of extreme weather and climate change, little is known about how public managers recognize, experience and address these risks. Using data from a national study of public transit agencies we investigate the types of extreme weather events transit agencies are experiencing, the associated risks, and how agencies are preparing for them. We find that while extreme events are commonly experienced by transit agencies across states and transit managers perceive increased risks from these events, most agencies rely on the traditional emergency management approach to address extreme weather ex post rather than taking a proactive approach to mitigating the adverse weather impact on transit assets and infrastructure ex ante. Managers report that a lack of access to financial resources is the greatest challenge for undertaking adaptation and preparation. We conclude with a discussion of what these findings mean for understanding organizational adaptation behavior as well as climate adaptation policy making.     

The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO₂ emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.     

Applying behavioural theories to studying the influence of climate change on young people’s future travel intentions

Transport policy in the UK is seeking to promote the development of low carbon transport technology and to encourage people to choose to use low carbon travel options. This paper draws on existing behavioural theories to study young people’s travel behaviour intentions and the influence on these from their knowledge of, and willingness to act on, climate change. The study involved a series of focus groups with young people aged 11-18 years, where attitudes to transport modes, attitudes towards climate change and travel behaviour intentions were discussed. Knowledge and values are established as the key determinants of young people’s attitudes and behaviour intentions towards transport in the context of climate change. More specifically it is established that young people’s values emphasise speed and freedom and that it is important to young people that the mode of transport they choose is reflective of the image they want to portray.     

Happy or liberal? Making sense of behavior in transport policy design

Appropriate microeconomic foundations of mobility are decisive for successful policy design in transportation and, in particular, for the challenge of climate change mitigation. Recent research suggests that behavior in transportation cannot be adequately represented by the standard approach of revealed preferences. Moreover, mobility choices are influenced by factors widely regarded as normatively irrelevant. Here we draw on insights from behavioral economics, psychology and welfare theory to examine how transport users make mobility decisions and when it is desirable to modify them through policy interventions. First, we explore systematically which preferences, heuristics and decision processes are relevant for mobility-specific behavior, such as mode choice. We highlight the influence of infrastructure on the formation of travel preferences. Second, we argue that the behavioral account of decision-making requires policy-makers to take a position on whether transport policies should be justified by appealing to preference satisfaction or to raising subjective well-being. This distinction matters because of the (i) influence of infrastructure on preference formation, (ii) health benefits from non-motorized mobility, (iii) negative impact of commuting on happiness and (iv) status-seeking behavior of individuals. The orthodox approach of only internalizing externalities is insufficient because it does not allow for the evaluation of these effects. Instead, our analysis suggests that transport demand modeling should consider behavioral effects explicitly.     

Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study of Ahmedabad

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO₂ mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM_2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development.     

State-of-the-practice assessment of climate change adaptation practices across metropolitan planning organizations pre- and post-Hurricane Sandy

Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) throughout the United States are identifying goals and implementation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change through transportation adaptation initiatives. Using vulnerability assessments as well as adaptation practices that support mitigation, MPOs are beginning to integrate climate change planning into the long range planning process. Evaluating the state-of-the-practice of adaptation planning and adaptation in support of mitigation is useful in that it helps identify gaps and areas of improvement. Therefore, this research investigates the state-of-the-practice of MPO adaptation planning using the Mid-Atlantic region as a case study. Surveys, administered in 2012 and 2014, are used to identify the level of progress of MPOs with regard to climate change adaptation practices as well as barriers before and after Hurricane Sandy. A cross-sectional analysis using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) maps the results of the surveys and spatially compares regional trends. The results of the case study suggest growing interest in adaptation efforts such as floodplain area designations and efforts to enhance coordination and collaboration as transportation jurisdictions respond to the potential climate change impacts. In addition, MPOs with dense, smaller geographic areas prioritize inter-jurisdictional collaboration as high, suggesting that they are more reliant on other agencies to maintain inter-connectivity of transportation networks and further implement adaptation planning practices.     

Impact assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: A data-driven approach

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions.     

More gray hair—but for whom? Scenario-based simulations of elderly activity travel patterns in 2020

This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind.

Long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks on land-use change: an international review of empirical studies

Improvements in geographical information systems, the wider availability of high-resolution digital data and more sophisticated econometric techniques have all contributed to increasing academic interest and activity in long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks (TINs) on land use (LU). This paper provides a systematic review of recent empirical evidence from the USA, Europe and East Asia, classified regarding the type of transport infrastructure (road or rail), LU indicator (land cover, population or employment density, development type) and outcome (significance, relationship’s direction) as well as influential exogenous factors. Proximity to the rail network is generally associated with population growth (particularly soon after the development of railway infrastructure), conversion to residential uses and the development of higher residential densities. Meanwhile, proximity to the road network is frequently associated with increases in employment densities as well as the conversion of land to a variety of urban uses including commercial and industrial development. Compared with road infrastructure, the impact of rail infrastructure is often less significant for land cover or population and employment density change. The extent of TINs’ impact on LU over time can be explained by the saturation in TIN-related accessibility and LU development.     

A Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C‐ITS)‐based lane‐changing advisory for weaving sections

Weaving sections, a common design of motorways, require extensive lane‐change manoeuvres. Numerous studies have found that drivers tend to make their lane changes as soon as they enter the weaving section, as the traffic volume increases. Congestion builds up as a result of this high lane‐changing concentration. Importantly, such congestion also limits the use of existing infrastructure, the weaving section downstream. This behaviour thus affects both safety and operational aspects. The potential tool for managing motorways effectively and efficiently is cooperative intelligent transport systems (C‐ITS). This research investigates a lane‐change distribution advisory application based on C‐ITS for weaving vehicles in weaving sections. The objective of this research is to alleviate the lane‐changing concentration problem by coordinating weaving vehicles to ensure that such lane‐changing activities are evenly distributed over the existing weaving length. This is achieved by sending individual messages to drivers based on their location to advise them when to start their lane change. The research applied a microscopic simulation in aimsun to evaluate the proposed strategy's effectiveness in a one‐sided ramp weave. The proposed strategy was evaluated using different weaving advisory proportions, traffic demands and penetration rates. The evaluation revealed that the proposed lane‐changing advisory has the potential to significantly improve delay. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

Climate change impacts on transport on the Rhine and Danube: A multimodal approach

This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited.     

Sustainability Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Review of Existing Tools and Methods

Abstract

Attempts to integrate sustainability in the decision-making process for transport infrastructure projects continue to gain momentum. A number of tools and methodological frameworks are available — such as rating systems, traditional decision-making techniques, checklists, and different evaluation frameworks and models. While these tools are highly valuable, some practical issues remain unsolved. There is also a need for more standardized tools to appraise the sustainability of transport projects. This paper is a presentation of a review on the current assessment tools of sustainability applied to transport infrastructure projects. The preliminary part of the paper is an explanatory and comparative analysis of the tools and methods in terms of their effectiveness to appraise sustainability. The analysis is a critical evaluation of the current state of the art to identify the limitations of existing approaches, point out new areas of research, and propose a sustainability appraisal agenda for the future.     

Driving to save time or saving time to drive? The enduring appeal of the private car

Use of the private car is often viewed as highly problematic. It is regularly associated with global physical, social and ecological harms such as climate change and the high incidence of lifestyle diseases, including heart disease. Attempts to address these problems generally include provision for day-to-day physical mobility based on alternatives to the private car. Labelled alternative transport, these modes include public transport, walking and cycling. Yet the private car continues as the preferred way to travel in many cities. A deeper understanding of this preference can reveal under explored sites of resistance to alternative transport modes.This paper contributes to these understandings by examining the role the car as a time saving device plays in sustaining automobility. Its central proposition is that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. The paper draws on empirical evidence on the journey to work in Australia’s largest city, Sydney. Using a systematic process of trip substitution analysis, a group of people were identified who could use alternative transport to get to work in the same amount of time it currently takes them to drive. These people then participated in a series of in-depth interviews where deeper attachments and motivations for private car use were explored.This approach has enabled development of the multi-layered understanding that informs the central proposition that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. Instead, automobility is sustained by appeals to flexibility and autonomy, as well as the interminable pull of the sensory experience provided by the cocoon of the car. This way of thinking about resistance to alternative transport exposes a series of inconsistencies between the expectations of those planning for, and those anticipated to one day use, alternative transport.     

Role model advocacy for sustainable transport

Individual aspirations of associating with role models are routinely harnessed by marketers, who for instance, use celebrity endorsement in selling brands and products. It appears there has been no research to date, however, on the potential for celebrity activism, or role model advocacy beyond celebrities, such as from politicians, to form effective interventions for encouraging sustainable transport behavior. This is despite studies suggesting that celebrity endorsement is a potential gateway for transforming public opinion on carbon intensive transport modes. The present paper consequently offers a critical review of the literature on role model advocacy and celebrity activism, and how these concepts have been harnessed to address environmental issues, in order to conceptually assess the potential for extending these intervention techniques to the context of sustainable transport. The scope of the paper includes the potential that high profile politicians/celebrities might play as role models in exercising referent power to influence social norms surrounding sustainable transport, given that the success of social marketing interventions are closely tied to the need for changes in the policy landscape. Key dimensions of role model endorsement in transport are identified and applied to a series of examples of how celebrity and political role models have influenced transport cultures. In addition to offering an original application of a theoretical framework to a new context, in order to help address the increasingly important societal issue of transport’s growing contribution to climate change, the paper discusses the challenges associated with the neoliberal framing of this approach.     

Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways

The rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway tracks, airports) is deployed, will play an important role in determining energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport sector. This paper describes an exercise where the costs of infrastructure deployment for the transport sector have been incorporated into the IMACLIM-R Global E3 IAM. In addition to adding these costs, the modelling of the criteria for the deployment of infrastructure for roads has also been improved. It is found that this model recalibration results in a more accurate baseline as compared to historically observed data (2001–2013) for investments in energy demand, road infrastructure, and passenger kilometers travelled. Regarding macroeconomic effects, it is found that the imposition of a carbon emission trajectory to 2100 cause GDP to decrease relative to the newly calibrated baseline – this is a standard IAM result. However, when the deployment of infrastructure for roads and air travel is further constrained, the GDP loss is less than with a fixed carbon emission trajectory only. This is because early restriction of infrastructure for roads and air travel allows an expansion of public transport infrastructure which is adequate to meet low-carbon transport service demand whereas when less public transport infrastructure is available, more costly mitigation investments must be made in other parts of the economy. This suggests that restricting infrastructure deployment as a complementary policy to carbon pricing, lowers the cost of mitigation.