基于供需分析的西安市停车规划研究

停车规划一直是城市交通需求管理的重点研究问题,停车的供需关系平衡与停车规划方案的制定密切相关。以西安市为例,在分析西安市的停车规模、特性等现状基础上,从土地利用、区位因素、动态交通三方面入手,探讨了西安市停车供需的特点及影响因素。采用出行吸引量模型对西安市停车需求进行预测。最后,结合停车需求预测结果,分析了西安市的停车供需差距,提出了西安市停车供给策略。     

基于多种群遗传BP的城市物流需求预测

城市物流需求预测是城市物流规划的重要前提,为了提高物流需求预测的精度,本文首先通过分析影响城市物流需求的经济活动,选取城市物流需求预测的指标。随后,为了改善BP算法预测效果受到网络初始权值与阈值影响的缺陷,提出多种群遗传BP算法进行改进。通过仿真表明,该方法与BP预测模型以及单种群遗传BP预测模型相比,具有较高的预测精度。     

共享单车停放需求影响因素分析和预测研究

为了解决城市共享单车的乱停乱放问题,本文基于北京市的共享单车出行大数据,提出了共享单车停放需求预测的多项Logit模型。首先分析了单车停放需求的影响因素,然后选取了时间、空间及天气方面的12个因素为自变量,通过Wald检验分析了这些因素与停放需求的相关性和显著性,基于多项Logit模型建立了共享单车的停放需求预测模型。结果表明:工作日、时段、商业区、所临道路类型、临近轨交站、高温、下雨、以及风力等级与共享单车停放需求显著相关;构建的预测模型总体预测准确率为77.5%,其中对出现频率最高的低停放需求预测准确率高达86.49%。     

基于静态交通发生率的停车需求预测及应用

针对大城市中心城区停车难问题,在对哈尔滨市曼哈顿地区的停车设施面积、停车场用地及归属、停放类型、停放时长、停放频率等进行了调查分析的基础上,利用静态交通发生率模型研究预测了该区停车泊车位的需求状况,并提出了相应的停车需求策略。结果表明,该地区的停车泊位数严重不足,商业性停车泊位数缺口最大。针对预测结果对该地区的停车规划与管理提出了几点建议:加强路外停车和路边停车的合理规划;制定合理的停车收费标准等。预测结果及建议为类似地区的停车规划提供参考。     

共享单车站点潜在需求预测问题研究

针对传统共享单车需求预测中潜在需求缺失的问题,文章分析了站点借还量与调度需求量的关系,提出站点潜在需求问题,并利用美国芝加哥Divvy Bikes公共自行车系统实际运营数据,综合考虑天气、气温、风力、站点容量与初始车辆数等因素,以历史每日正常数据构建训练网络,通过三种神经网络方法预测出具有潜在需求站点的借还量。该研究方法的应用可以提高共享单车调度的科学性和准确性。     

基于大数据综合普查方法的城市停车设施空间资源规划研究

以潍坊市中心城区为例,通过分析城市停车设施普查的方法特点,制订以大数据和人工调研为基础的停车普查方案,对潍坊市中心城区停车资源进行全面普查摸底,发现停车资源供给呈现出中心突出且分布不均匀的形态,供求关系存在结构局部失调的问题,总车位供给量为73万个,高峰停车存在缺额约3.1万个。进行停车资源需求预测,结果表明：近期基本停车泊位需求62万～64万个,远期基本停车泊位需求91万～93万个。根据调查结论提出相应的分区差异化供给和管理策略,实现信息实时资源动态配置,提高停车资源的利用效率,为类似城市的空间治理提供借鉴。     

路内停车需求快捷估算方法研究

合理设置路内机动车停车规模一直是城市静态交通管理面临的重要挑战。为研究路内停车需求规模，以福建省晋江市经济开发区为例，首先通过对经济开发区路内停车现场数量调查、宏观经济用地数据采集以及兴趣点数据进行相关性分析，发现路内停车的需求规模与规划人口毛密度、临街餐饮店数量两组参数具有极高的相关性。最后，通过对规划人口毛密度以及临街餐饮店数与路内停车数量进行曲面函数拟合，多项式函数中的二重傅里叶级数对于预测路内停车数量拟合精度较高，可以作为工程应用中路内停车需求快速预测的方法。同时研究认为，合理布置餐饮店位置，控制餐饮店数量规模，是有效减少路内停车，提高路内静态交通管理水平的重要手段。     

综合运输需求预测方法的概述

综合运输需求预测是进行交通基础设施建设、交通运输政策制定和综合运输网络规划的基础，由于综合运输需求通常受到区域人口、经济结构、产业规模、产业布局、机动化水平、城市化水平等多种因素的影响，这就使得综合运输需求预测变得非常复杂。因此，如何合理使用综合运输需求预测方法以提高预测的准确度，一直以来都是综合运输研究领域的难点。     

新时期综合交通运输需求预测

本文首先从空间、特征、服务三重维度和政策导向、新型城镇化、区域一体化以及运输绿色化多重视角,赋予综合交通运输需求新内涵。其次,梳理出新时期综合交通运输需求预测的四大板块:发展预测、需求模型、数据洞悉以及拓展研究。最后,着重探讨需求预测在综合交通运输体系构建过程中的规划指导和战略决策作用。     

基于节点重要度与交通区位的公路运输枢纽布局研究

从区域社会经济、公路运量及交通区位三方面出发,基于节点重要度与交通区位综合分析,建立了运输枢纽节点重要度与交通区位相结合的评价指标体系。由于各指标在比较时具有一定模糊性,因此文章运用模糊层次分析法确定了各指标的权重,通过引入重要度综合指数,对区域内各运输枢纽节点的重要度综合指数进行了分析。通过对山东省区域公路运输枢纽布局重要度综合指数的实例分析,验证了该方法的合理性和可行性,为公路运输枢纽总体布局研究提供了主要理论依据。     

Demand management in suburban settings

This paper provides findings from a review of employer based demand management strategies for reducing traffic congestion in several areas of the United States. The research was carried out by K.T. Analytics, Inc. in 1989 under a contract with the Federal Department of Transportation, Transportation Systems Center. Relying on a review of employer based programs in 26 sites, as well as selected literature, the paper draws conclusions about the effectiveness of employer based transportation systems management (programs to encourage carpooling, transit, biking, cycling, walking and flextime) and parking management (preferential parking for carpoolers, removal of parking subsidies, and other measures) aimed at reducing solo driving and peak period commuting.Several conclusions are offered for local planners and policy makers. Demand Management programs can be effective in reducing traffic congestion, provided they are targeted to larger employment centers, accompanied by transit development, high occupancy vehicle incentives and parking management strategies, especially pricing. Flextime should not be encouraged without careful evaluation as it may discourage ridesharing. Guaranteed ride home services appear promising and deserve attention. With all strategies, long term vigilance will be necessary as programs are susceptible to change over time. Stringent public policies do not appear necessary for development of effective programs. Ordinances should require plans not specific strategies, as it is difficult estimating the probable effectiveness of particular strategies. Ordinances should contain sanctions for employers not carrying out agreed to plans, and should include fees and financing to support public sector review of plans and on-going monitoring.     

神农架旅游交通需求研究

G42沪蓉高速公路宜昌至巴东段建成通车后,神农架旅游交通量迅速增长,尤其是"十一、五一"等黄金周,旅游人数出现井喷,交通成为神农架旅游品质最关键的要素。如何应对交通总量快速增长,如何服务好各类游客的交通需求,如何以保护生态环境为宗旨实施交通调控措施,是交通部门亟需作出研判的课题。基于此,笔者突破省域、市域间行政区划的限制,借鉴国内外类似旅游区交通问题的启示,通过全面分析神农架旅游发展态势和趋势,提出合理化解决方案,为"十三五"期湖北区域交通及神农架旅游发展提供决策参考。     

Demand uncertainty and airport capacity choice

This study analyzes the effects of demand uncertainty on airport capacity choices. It shows that demand uncertainty will not change optimal capacity choice if demand variation is low and capacity cost is high; otherwise the optimal airport capacity under demand uncertainty will be larger than the case when a deterministic mean demand is considered. These conclusions are robust with respect to the different market structures considered in this study and hold for both profit-maximizing and welfare-maximizing airports. The moderating effects of commercial revenue, capital cost, and airport operation cost on airport capacity choice are qualitatively the same in the cases of uncertain demand and deterministic demand.     

高速公路清障救援资源需求预测综述

清障救援资源是高速公路缓拥堵保畅通的重要保障,对维护路网运营安全具有重要意义.本文在梳理了国内外道路清障救援资源需求分析方法的基础上,分析了目前研究所取得成果与不足,并提出了相应的研究展望.     

基于时间指标的P＆R换乘需求预测研究

城市外围停车换乘需求预测是停车换乘系统规划设计的重要组成部分,也是规划设计的基础和依据。以距离为指标划定P＆R设施吸引范围在山区城市有一定的局限性,文章基于山区地形、居民分布、路网等因素考虑,提出了基于时间指标划分吸引范围的方法,并且通过依据交通方式选择影响因素的相关研究,建立了换乘轻轨、公共汽车、继续使用小汽车的多项logit选择模型。     

Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segment-specific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings.     

Demand for buses in Japanese medium sized cities

The number of bus passenger has been decreasing in Japan since 1969. The increase in car ownership and development in urban rapid rail network has deprived bus service of passengers. The bus industry has suffered from depression for the last twenty years. However, many bus routes are still operated commercially. The amount of external subsidies is not large. The industry is under strict regulation. The common way for bus operators has been to increase fares rapidly in order to keep their break even condition. The first half of the paper describes present circumstances of the bus industry in more details. Then the second half of the paper treats the estimation of the effect of each factor on bus demand by using pooled data in Japanese medium sized cities. The results suggest that the increase in car ownership has had a crucial effect on local public transport demand and is likely to continue to do so.     

Road Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimates: A Review

A brief summary of road traffic‐related elasticity estimates as reported in the international literature is given. An indication of the orders of magnitude of these elasticities is outlined and the variation in estimates commonly found is emphasized. The results of previous extensive surveys are collated, but a wider scope of traffic‐related research is provided by reviewing recent work and including research that has received less attention. A variety of elasticity measures related to car travel, car ownership, freight traffic and fuel demand are reported. Based on the review, some important themes underpinning the demand for road traffic are revealed.