Methodologies to monetize the variations in load factor and GHG emissions per passenger-mile of airlines

Global GHG emissions from air travel are currently at 3% and it could increase to 15% of the total GHG emissions by 2050. To curb the growth of GHG emissions from air travel, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has created a policy to achieve carbon neutral growth by 2020 relative to the 2005 baseline. If the airline industry is to both grow and meet the objectives set by this policy, new and innovative aircraft designs, operational efficiencies, and widespread use of alternate fuels are required. To accomplish this would require large research and development investment. The federal government and state governments have passed legislations that provide tax breaks and other incentives to encourage investments in new technologies. One such tax policies is cap and trade system. This had partial success in reducing GHG emissions in certain industries but was not successful in the airline industry. This paper presents alternate methods to raise capital to invest in GHG emissions reduction projects in the airline sector. The four methodologies presented here monetizes the GHG emissions resulting from differences in load factor (ratio of number of passengers to number of seats) and GHG emissions per passenger-mile among different airlines, among different flight sectors, etc. to raise the capital. Based on 2012 air travel data, these methodologies could raise more than $300 million dollars annually to invest in GHG emissions reduction projects.     

Time-based life-cycle assessment for environmental policymaking: Greenhouse gas reduction goals and public transit

As decision-makers increasingly embrace life-cycle assessment (LCA) and target transportation services for regional environmental goals, it becomes imperative that outcomes from changes to transportation infrastructure systems are accurately estimated. Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies have created interest in better understanding how public transit systems reduce emissions. Yet the use of average emission factors (e.g., grams CO₂e per distance traveled) persists as the state-of-the-art masking the variations in emissions across time, and confounding the ability to accurately estimate the environmental effects from changes to transit infrastructure and travel behavior. An LCA is developed of the Expo light rail line and a competing car trip (in Los Angeles, California) that includes vehicle, infrastructure, and energy production processes, in addition to propulsion. When results are normalized per passenger kilometer traveled (PKT), life-cycle processes increase energy use and GHG emissions up to 83%, and up to 690% for smog and respiratory impact potentials. However, the use of a time-independent PKT normalization obfuscates a decision-maker’s ability to understand whether the deployment of a transit system reduces emissions below a future year policy target (e.g., 80% of 1990 emissions by 2050). The year-by-year marginal effects of the decision to deploy the Expo line are developed including reductions in automobile travel. The time-based marginal results provide clearer explanations for how environmental effects in a region change and the critical life-cycle processes that should be targeted to achieve policy targets. It shows when environmental impacts payback and how much reduction is achieved by a policy-specified future year.     

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.     

Planning for economic and environmental resilience

Climate protection will require major reductions in GHG emissions from all sectors of the economy, including the transportation sector. Slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will be necessary for reducing transportation GHG emissions, even with major breakthroughs in vehicle technologies and low-carbon fuels (Winkelman et al., 2009). The Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) supports market-based policy approaches that minimize costs and maximize benefits. Our research indicates that significant GHG reductions can be achieved through smart growth and travel efficiency measures that increase accessibility, improve travel choices and make optimum use of existing infrastructure. Moreover, we find such measures can deliver compelling economic benefits, including avoided infrastructure costs, leveraged private investment, increased local tax revenues and consumer vehicle ownership and operating cost savings (Winkelman et al., 2009).As a society, what we build – where and how – has a tremendous impact on our carbon footprint, from building design to transportation infrastructure and land-use patterns. The empirical and modeling evidence is clear – people drive less in locations with efficient land use patterns, high quality travel choices and reinforcing policies and incentives (Ewing et al., 2008). It is also clear that there is growing and unmet market demand for walkable communities, reinforced by demographic shifts and higher fuel prices (Leinberger, 2006, Nelson, 2007). Transportation policy in the United States must rise to meet this demand for more travel choices and more livable communities.The academic, ideological and political debates about the level of GHG reductions and penetration rates that can or should be achieved via smart growth and pricing on the one hand, or measures such as ‘eco-driving’ and signal optimization on the other, have served their purpose: we know which policies are ‘directionally correct’ – policies that reduce GHG emissions even though we may not know the scope of those reductions. Now is the time to implement directionally correct policies, assess what works best where, and refine policy based on the results. It is a framework that CCAP calls “Do. Measure. Learn.”The Federal government is poised to spend $500 billion on transportation (Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, 2009). CCAP encourages Congress to “Ask the Climate Question” – will our transportation investments help reduce GHG emissions or exacerbate the problem? Will they help increase our resilience to climate change impacts or increase our vulnerability? And, while we’re at it, will our investment foster energy security, livable communities and a vibrant economy? Federal transportation and climate policies should empower communities to implement locally-determined travel efficiency solutions by providing appropriate funding, tools and technical support.     

Evaluation,prioritization and selection of transportation investment projects in New York City

Over the last decade, a large number of high capital cost transportation projects have been proposed for the New York City Region. Many have resulted from addressing evolving capacity needs, changes in regional demographics and economics, meeting the improvements necessitated by operating century old subway systems and recognizing the impact of moving freight in a dense region. But the catalyst for bringing all of these projects to the attention of the public and all regional agencies was the tragedy of September 11, 2001. While these projects entail massive investments ($50–$60 billion), little analytical work has been carried out to measure the transportation and economic costs and benefits they entail and to categorize them accordingly. Competition among agencies to secure adequate resources to implement any of the desired projects makes such analysis necessary; yet there still remain political, vested economic interests and agency rivalry barriers to achieving this important planning objective. This paper reports the methodological approach taken by these authors for consistent and transparent project evaluation and then presents results from the ranking and prioritizing methodology. The policy underpinnings and implications of the analysis are discussed in a subsequent paper and thus only briefly touched upon here in the concluding section.     

Mitigating environmental impacts in advance: Evidence of cost and time savings for transportation projects

The traditional model for mitigating a transportation project’s environmental impacts typically operates project-by-project and delivers the mitigation just-in-time. In contrast, the newer practice of advance mitigation comprehensively assesses and mitigates impacts from one or multiple transportation projects before or during project planning, sometimes long before project construction begins. The practice has gained adherents for its potential to improve ecological outcomes, by better aligning mitigation and conservation goals. Advance mitigation also stands to reduce mitigation costs, an important secondary benefit for transportation agencies with constrained resources. Evidence of cost savings, however, has been piecemeal and anecdotal. This paper advances knowledge of advance mitigation’s financial impacts in two ways. First, it critically assesses the evidence about cost savings realized through advance mitigation, both through avoided up-front costs and reduced project delay. Second, it directly estimates the project time savings that might accrue with advance mitigation of state highway projects in California. Overall, the balance of evidence is encouraging for transportation agencies that would introduce the practice, and general agreement exists on its financial benefits. Considering project delays related only to the environmental process, we estimate advance mitigation could reduce delivery times by 1.3–5.0 months per project. Still, we also identify factors limiting comprehensive analysis. Transportation agencies adopting advance mitigation practices into their operations could use a pilot approach that includes rigorous environmental and mitigation cost accounting; such pilots would build needed empirical evidence of advance mitigation’s financial and ecological outcomes.     

Resolving the property right of transportation emissions through public–private partnerships

The application of public–private partnerships (P3’s) in the transportation sector has grown in popularity worldwide. Despite this important shift in the provision of transportation service, there are clear gaps in knowledge about the impacts of P3 projects, especially on emissions from transportation systems as a whole. Not only should policy makers evaluate the emissions impacts from P3 projects, but they should also think about innovative models that address or charge for emissions into P3 contracts. This addition to P3 contracts could provide a new solution to the long-existing property right paradox: who owns (is responsible for) emissions from transportation systems? This study attempts to fill the research gap by analyzing these innovative models. Using the road network of Fresno, California, as our case study, we offer a number of interesting insights for policy makers. First, average peak emissions costs range from 1.37 cents per mile (the do-nothing case) to 1.20 cents per mile (profit-maximizing cases) per vehicle. Although emissions costs from the P3 projects are lowest for the profit-maximizing cases, the system-wide emissions costs of these cases are highest because of spillover effects. Second, charging project owners for the emissions costs of P3 projects is not an effective way to reduce emissions or the total costs of travel, especially on a VMT basis. Instead, the public sector should implement emissions-included social cost-based price ceilings. When employing these limits, project owners could still be charged for the emissions costs. Finally, using total travel time as the only objective function for evaluating P3 projects can be misleading. Several P3 projects have shown better outcomes using total travel cost with the inclusion of emissions and fuel consumption costs, instead of using total travel time as the only objective function.     

Efficiency of European Funds in the Accession Countries: The Case of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Latvia

ABSTRACT

A transport initiative, like any kind of public action, has an impact on the monetary cost, time cost, efficiency and comfort of the transportation of goods and people, in particular transport infrastructure investments. All such initiatives are subject to cost benefit analyses at the national and EU level to know whether the present value of total net benefits including environmental impacts exceeds their cost. However, several important policy issues remain unresolved in standard evaluation procedures. One issue is whether the so-called direct measurement of user benefit, which consists of quantifying changes in surplus of the users of the transport system, captures all welfare generated in the economy. Another issue is how the gains (or possibly losses) of a transport initiative are distributed among regions. The aim of this article is to perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of the socio-economic and spatial impacts of alternative transport investments by carrying out scenario simulations in order to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on the short- and long-term spatial development in Latvia. The general result from the scenario simulations is that rail projects seem to be more effective in terms of promoting regional economic activity than road projects.     

How can we alter our carbon footprint? Estimating GHG emissions based on travel survey information

The city of Montreal has taken recent initiatives to significantly reduce overall greenhouse (GHG) emissions from the transport sector and has made large investments in alternative transportation. In particular, the city has called upon the participation of all businesses and institutions to further these goals. In light of these recent plans, this study identifies with two objectives: first, to develop a methodology for estimating GHG emissions generated by commuters to McGill University’s downtown campus; and secondly, to better understand who, how, and when each commuter to McGill generates travel-related GHG. Mode split, travel distance, age, gender and job category were uncovered by a 2011 travel survey that we conducted across the University, from which daily individual GHG emissions are estimated. Details about these trips not only reveal who the largest polluters are and where they are coming from, but also the seasonality of their emissions. These associations are then used to narrate scenarios which present alternatives to the structure of individuals’ commutes by examining the outcomes of selected shifts in travel behavior on total GHG emissions.     

Planning hierarchical urban transit systems for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

Public transit systems with high occupancy can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to low-occupancy transportation modes, but current transit systems have not been designed to reduce environmental impacts. This motivates the study of the benefits of design and operational approaches for reducing the environmental impacts of transit systems. For example, transit agencies may replace level-of-service (LOS) by vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a criterion in evaluating design and operational changes. In previous work, we explored the unintended consequences of lowering transit LOS on emissions in a single-technology transit system. Herein, we extend the analysis to account for a more realistic case: a transit system with a hierarchical structure (trunk and feeder lines) providing service to a city where demand is elastic. By considering the interactions between the trunk and the feeder systems, we provide a quantitative basis for designing and operating integrated urban transit systems that can reduce GHG emissions and societal costs. We find that highly elastic transit demand may cancel emission reduction potentials resulting from lowering LOS, due to demand shifts to lower occupancy vehicles. However, for mass transit modes, these potentials are still significant. Transit networks with buses, bus rapid transit or light rail as trunk modes should be designed and operated near the cost-optimal point when the demand is highly elastic, while this is not required for metro. We find that the potential for unintended consequences increases with the size of the city. Our results are robust to uncertainties in the costs and emissions parameters.     

Analyzing voter support for California’s local option sales taxes for transportation

Local and regional governments in the U.S. rely increasingly on voter-approved local option sales taxes (LOSTs) to fund transportation capital investments, maintenance, and operations. LOSTs typically present voters with lists of local transportation projects and programs to be funded by a ¼ to 1 percent sales tax increase. Most research on LOSTs are case studies, which make generalizations about LOSTs difficult. We conducted a comprehensive, multi-jurisdictional analysis of LOST measures in California, the U.S. state with the greatest number of LOST measures. We examined 76 LOST measures put to voters between 1976 and 2016 to assess factors associated with voter support. LOSTs in California are enacted by counties, which we examined in addition to smaller intra-county geographies using both regression models and case studies. We tested several explanatory variables for association with voter support including macroeconomic and political context, planned measure expenditures, voter characteristics, and spatial distribution of proposed projects. We found that funding dedicated to public transit and returned to local jurisdictions predicts support at the county level, and that LOSTs that create new taxes—as opposed to extending or renewing existing taxes—are less popular with voters, all else equal. Our analyses of sub-county geographies revealed that political party affiliation is the strongest predictor of local voter support for LOSTs and that voters living adjacent to funded projects tended to be more supportive of LOSTs.

     

The effects of federal transit subsidy policy on investment decisions: The case of San Francisco's Geary Corridor

In the United States, federal funding for public transit often accounts for a large proportion of a local agency's budget, especially for capital investments. For this reason, local governments can be expected to plan a portfolio of projects that maximize federal contributions. This study examines the financial effects of federal transit subsidy policy on local transit investment decisions. Data from a System Planning Study for the Geary Corridor in San Francisco are used as an illustration. It is found that federal transit subsidy policy provides financial incentives for local decision-makers to select capital-intensive investment options that may not be efficient or effective. While federal financial incentives are not the only factor influencing local investment decisions, some reform of the current subsidy policy may be necessary to reduce the incentive for ineffective use of public resources.     

Congestion relief toll tunnels

Changing urban land-use patterns have reduced the importance of traditional downtowns as the origin and destination of numerous vehicular trips. Much traffic on downtown-area freeways seeks merely to get past downtown, thereby worsening the level of congestion for those seeking access to downtown.A number of European cities have begun to develop a new type of transportation facility: congestion-relief toll tunnels in downtown areas. These projects appear to be economically feasible largely or entirely from premium-price tolls paid by users. Hence, they are being developed by private consortia, operating under long-term franchises from government. Other keys to the feasibility of such projects are peak/off-peak pricing structures (congestion pricing), nonstop electronic toll collection, and restriction of use to auto-size vehicles only (to reduce tunnel dimensions and therefore capital investment).Preliminary analysis indicates that congestion-telief bypass runnels for downtown Los Angeles and San Francisco would be economically feasible as private business ventures, if developed along European lines. Similar approaches might be applied to other controversial freeway projects in both cities, and to restructuring Boston's huge and controversial Central Artery/Tunnel project.Congress has already authorized public-private partnerships of this type, permitting private capital and private owner/operation to be used, both for new projects and to rebuild existing highway, bridge, and tunnel facilities. Six states and Puerto Rico have enacted private-tollway legislation under which such projects could be developed and operated.This type of project should be politically feasible, since it offers a way to make significant transportation improvements in impacted downtowns with little or no public funding. While transit proponents may oppose the construction of toll tunnels, highway users are likely to support such projects, and some environmental groups may support this method of implementing congestion pricing in urban areas, because of its potential for reducing air emissions.     

A test of inter-modal performance measures for transit investment decisions

Choices among alternative transit capital investments are often complex and politically controversial. There is renewed interest in the use of performance indicators to assist in making rational and defensible choices for the investment of public funds. To improve the evaluation of rail and bus performance and provide more useful information for transit investment decision-makers, it is important to use performance indicators that fairly and efficiently compare different transit modes. This paper proposes a set of inter-modal performance indicators in which service input, service output, and service consumption are measured by total cost, revenue capacity miles/hours, and unlinked passenger trips/miles respectively based on economic principles and evaluation objectives. The proposed improvements involve the inclusion of capital as well as operating costs in such comparisons, and the recognition of the widely varying capacities of transit vehicles for seated and standing passengers. Two California cases, the Los Angeles – Long Beach Corridor and the Market/Judah Corridor in San Francisco, are used for testing their usefulness in the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of rail and bus services. The results show substantial differences between performance indicators in current use and those proposed in this study. The enhanced inter-modal performance indicators are more appropriate for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of different modes or a combination of transit modes at the corridor and system levels where most major investment decisions are made. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Greenhouse gas reduction potential of advanced traffic control

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation in the context of the climate change issue and the associated Kyoto Agreement of 1997 is a challenge. Since urban transportation is a major contributor to greenhouse gases, measures are required to reduce these emissions. Given that during peak periods, road vehicles propelled by petroleum fuel‐based internal combustion engines produce a high level of GHG emissions due to stop and go operations, measures to improve traffic flow can play an effective mitigation role. This paper describes a simulation‐based methodology and a case study for the quantification of GHG emission reduction owing to advanced traffic control systems.     

Simulating deep CO2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to simulate transition towards low carbon transportation in the European Union until 2050 and to assess the ensuing macroeconomic and sectorial impacts. Transport restructuring is dynamically simulated using a new transport-oriented version of the computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 which is linked with the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy and transport sectors model. The analysis draws from comparing a reference scenario projection for the EU member-states up to 2050 to alternative transport policy scenarios and sensitivities which involve deep cutting of CO₂ emissions. The simulations show that transport restructuring affects the economy through multiple channels, including investment in infrastructure, the purchasing and manufacturing of new technology vehicles, the production of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and electricity. The analysis identifies positive impacts of industrial activity and other sectors stemming from these activities. However, the implied costs of freight and passenger transportation are of crucial importance for the net impact on GDP and income. Should the transport sector transformation imply high unit costs of transport services, crowding out effects in the economy can offset the benefits. This implies that the technology and productivity progress assumptions can be decisive for the sign of GDP impacts. A robust conclusion is that the transport sector decarbonisation, is likely to have only small negative impacts on the EU GDP compared to business as usual.     

A multi-objective optimization approach to balancing economic efficiency and equity in accessibility to multi-use paths

Improving public health through active transpiration investments has increasingly become a new research focus in transportation planning. This study is to propose a multi-objective optimization modeling framework, through an optimal allocation of active transportation investments, to maximize the total accessibility while minimizing the total differences in accessibility over a city. Accessibility to multi-use paths is calculated for Fresno, California that measures the total length of multi-use paths a resident could reach with a 30-min cycling ride. Then, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used to capture the local relationships between accessibility outcome and previous transportation investments. The marginal-effect analysis for the GWR results indicates economically efficient, inefficient, and indifferent locations for further investments. This study is one of the few to incorporate such a GWR model into a multi-objective optimization modeling framework to improve accessibility to multi-use paths and address inequality issues in transportation. Solving the multi-objective optimization model provides decision-makers a new insight into the making of an economically efficient and socially equal active transportation plan to improve public health.

     

Economic costs and environmental impacts of alternative fuel vehicle fleets in local government: An interim assessment of a voluntary ten-year fleet conversion plan

Vehicle fleets are widely viewed by policy makers as attractive first markets for introduction of alternative fuel technologies. Although, it is essential to understand the environmental benefits and economic challenges involved in fleet conversion, the literature provides little understanding of the implementation issues associated with alternative fuel vehicles. This paper examines the cost effectiveness and environmental impact of the conversion of a 180 plus vehicle fleet to alternative fuel vehicle technologies by a public organization at the mid-point of the project implementation. Using multi-year micro data on fuel usage, operational and capital expenditures, mileage and emissions, the paper examines conversion costs and infrastructure investments required, extent of user adoption, and emissions reductions achieved. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for managerial practice in local government fleet agencies and for future research.     

Contract Design,Financing Arrangements and Public Ownership—An Assessment of the US Airport Governance Model

Abstract

US airports negotiate legally binding contracts with airlines and finance large investment projects with revenue bonds. Applying insights from transaction cost economics, we argue that the observed variation in contractual and financing arrangements at US airports corresponds to the parties' needs for safeguarding and coordination. The case evidence presented reveals that public owners set the framework for private investments and contracting. We suggest that airline contracts and capital market control result in comparative efficient investments and act as a check on the cost inefficiency typically linked to public ownership.     

Field investigation and parametric study of greenhouse gas emissions from railway plain-line renewals

Railway transportation is becoming increasingly important in many parts of the world for mass transport of passengers and freight. This study was prompted by the industry’s need to systemically estimate greenhouse gas emissions from railway construction and maintenance activities. In this paper, the emphasis is placed on plain-line railway maintenance and renewal projects. The objective of this study was to reduce the uncertainties and assumptions of previous studies based on ballasted track maintenance and renewal projects. A field-based data collection was carried out on plain-line ballasted track renewals. The results reveal that the emissions from the materials contribute more than nine times the CO₂-e emissions than the machines used in the renewal projects. The results show that extending the lifespan of rail infrastructure assets through maintenance is beneficial in terms of reducing CO₂-e emissions. Analysis was then carried out using the field data. Then the results were compared to two ballastless track alternatives. The results show that CO₂-e emissions per metre from ballasted track were the least overall, however, the maintenance CO₂-e emissions are greater than those of ballastless tracks over the infrastructure lifespan, with ballasted track maintenance emitting more CO₂-e emissions at the 30 and 60 year intervals and the end of life when compared to the ballastless track types. The outcome of the study can provide decision makers, construction schedulers, environmental planners and project planners with reasonably accurate GHG emission estimates that can be used to plan, forecast and reduce emissions for plain-line renewal projects.