Evaluation of Potentially Successful Barge Innovations

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to analyse the changes in productivity of the Taiwan Bus Transit System (TBTS) before and after the execution of the ‘Alternatives for Promoting the Development of the Public Transportation Sectors’ (APDPTS), which is designed to provide a better operating environment for the public transport sector in the provision of public transit services. We use a decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index to locate the sources of productivity growth, namely technical change and efficiency change. The former is further decomposed into an output bias, an input bias and a magnitude term to test neutrality. The latter is also decomposed into changes in pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. In our case, between the pre‐ and post‐APDPTS periods, the efficiency increased only marginally. As a result of a five‐year enhancement programme, the technical regress slowed down slightly, and inward neutral shifts of a transformation frontier were interpreted as being the main contributor to technical regress. In particular, evidence of biased technical change was found, i.e., the effects of output capability increased slightly, but the efficient use of inputs declined during the post‐APDPTS period.     

Non-parametric analyses of efficiency of airports

This paper estimates the efficiencies and productivity changes of 12 international airports in the Asia-Pacific region based on data from 1998 to 2006. We apply stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to compute efficiency estimates and use the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to analyze productivity changes. We use the SFA model with a translog-type production function after testing the statistical hypotheses. According to the results of the SFA hypothesis tests, airports have experienced a technological regression; the deviations from the efficiency frontier are caused more by technical inefficiency than random noise. However, the inefficiency was found to decrease. The MPI reveals a declining trend resulting more from technological change than from efficiency change, with a decrease in inefficiency. Taken together, both the hypothesis tests and the MPI not only provide consistent conclusions, but also suggest that airports should concentrate on technological progress.     

Cost-efficiency benchmarking of European air navigation service providers

This study uses EUROCONTROL data on operating performance of the national air navigation service providers over the 2002–2011 time period to document in detail the efficiency changes across providers and time using data envelopment analysis. Our results suggest that overall providers’ productivity improved over the time period covered by the data, driven by improvements in technical rather than allocative efficiency. However, some trend reversals in the post-2008 crisis period are also observed.     

Changes in multi-mode bus transit efficiency, 1988–1992

This paper examines the claim that US bus transit productivity has declined in recent years. It does so with reference to a piecewise-linear best-practice (DEA) production frontier, computed for multi-modal bus transit between 1988 and 1992. Efficiency is measured both by a Russell (static) and Malmquist (dynamic) measure of productivity change. The principal finding is that, overall, bus transit efficiency has improved slightly over the period.     

Railway reforms: do they influence operating efficiency?

This paper considers railway operations in 23 European countries during 1995–2001, where a series of reform initiatives were launched by the European Commission, and analyses whether these reform initiatives improved the efficiency of the railway systems. Efficiency is measured using Multi-directional Efficiency Analysis, which enables investigation of how railway reforms affect the inefficiencies of specific cost drivers. The main findings are that the reform initiatives generally improve technical efficiency but potentially differently for different cost drivers. Specifically, the paper provides empirical evidence that accounting separation is important for improving the efficiency in the use of both material and staff costs, whereas other reforms only influenced one of these factors.

An empirical analysis of children’s after school out-of-home activity-location engagement patterns and time allocation

Children are an often overlooked and understudied population group, whose travel needs are responsible for a significant number of trips made by a household. In addition, children’s travel and activity participation during the post-school period have direct implication for adults’ activity-travel patterns. A better understanding of children’s after school activity-travel patterns and the linkages between parents and children’s activity-travel needs is necessary for accurate prediction and forecasting of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. In this paper, data from the 2002 Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the post-school out-of-home activity-location engagement patterns of children aged 5–17 years. Specifically, this research effort utilizes a multinomial logit model to analyze children’s post-school location patterns, and employs a multiple discrete–continuous extreme value model to study the propensity of children to participate in, and allocate time to, multiple activity episode purpose-location types during the after-school period. The results show that a wide variety of demographic, attitudinal, environmental, and others’ activity-travel pattern characteristics impact children’s after school activity engagement patterns.     

Structure and dynamics of non-suburban passenger travel demand in Indian railways

In this paper we derive long run structural relationships for all the three classes, viz. upper, second and ordinary second class, of non-suburban long distance passenger transport demand for Indian railways using annual time series data for 1970–1995. We employ some of the recent developments in multivariate dynamic econometric time series modeling including estimation of long-run structural cointegrating relationships, short-run dynamics and measurement of the effects of shocks and their persistence on evolution of the dynamic passenger transport demand system. The models are estimated using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework, which allows for endogeneity of regressors. The demand systems are found to be stable for all the classes in the long run and they converge to equilibrium in a period of around 2–4 years after a typical system-wide shock. Any disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected in the long-run with adjustments in passenger transport demand and the price variable, i.e. real rate charged per passenger kilometer. Results show that travel demand in all classes would rise with income, although the rise is less than proportionate in the case of ordinary class. High price elasticity in long-run and short-run impulse responses indicate that passenger fare hike could lead to substantial decline in travel demand leading to decline in revenue earnings of the railways. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

An application of the directional distance function with the number of accidents as an undesirable output to measure the technical efficiency of state road transport in India

By using the directional distance function (DDF) of data envelopment analysis (DEA), this study measures the technical efficiency of 37 Indian state road transport undertakings (SRTUs) for the year 2012–13. We employ the DDF as a tool for analyzing a joint production function with both desirable and undesirable outputs (i.e., the number of accidents). A comparison between the results with and without accidents shows that several SRTUs have experienced significant changes in their efficiency scores as well as in their rankings after accounting for the undesirable output. This indicates the importance of including the number of accidents – a safety standard – as representative of the undesirable output in computing the efficiency scores of SRTUs. The results of the Tobit model indicate that SRTUs with greater vehicle productivity are more efficient under both conventional DEA and DDF approaches. We also employed zero-truncated negative binomial model to assess the factors influencing the number of road accident experienced by the Indian SRTUs and found that the accident count was significantly influenced by fleet utilization and vehicle productivity.     

Mass transit systems of Beijing: governance evolution and analysis

Developing a more efficient mass transit system, in highly populated cities, improves the mobility, decreases the dependency of private cars, alleviates traffic congestion, and provides a more environmentally friendly means of travel. Recently, the city of Beijing decided to have a target of becoming as a ‘public-transport city’ with a fascinating mass transit system within a larger plan, of building humanistic, scientific and technological, and green public-transport systems. This work discusses the governance evolution of the mass transit system of Beijing between 1949–2008, comprised of two groups of transit systems, the road surface public-transport system (bus, tram, trolley, etc.), and the subway public-transport system. In addition, a time-series analysis is introduced in an attempt to examine the effect of governance evolution on the two transit systems, and of the impacts of the governance structural changes on the mass transit system. The time-series model is introduced using the annual statistics data of the period 1949–2008. The outcome of the analysis is viewed with precaution because of the incompleteness of the many endogenous and exogenous factors to affect the public-transport demand. Generally speaking it is concluded that the governance evolution provides beneficial effect of the Beijing mass transit activity; however, for satisfying the significant increase of the Beijing city’s travel demand and maintaining sustainable development, the governance-involvement pattern needs to be reformed.     

CO2 emissions efficiency and marginal abatement costs of the regional transportation sectors in China

Nowadays, evaluating CO₂ emissions efficiency and its marginal abatement cost in transportation sectors has been a hot topic. However, while evaluating the CO₂ marginal abatement cost using data envelopment analysis approach, the weak disposability of CO₂ may imply positive abatement cost, which undoubtedly violates our common sense. To obtain non-positive marginal abatement cost, CO₂ emissions should be treated as an input. To reconcile this contradiction, this paper intends to propose a global, directional distance function model based on previous study to investigate the productivity, economic efficiency, CO₂ emissions efficiency, and marginal abatement cost of the China’s regional transportation sectors during 2007–2012. The results show that: (1) the productivity, economic efficiency and CO₂ emissions efficiency of different regions differ widely. More specifically, the coastal areas of south China perform better than the other areas in terms of productivity, economic efficiency, and CO₂ emissions efficiency. (2) Generally, the economic efficiency is greater than CO₂ emissions efficiency, which is relatively low in most areas. (3) A negative correlation is found between CO₂ emissions efficiency and its marginal abatement cost. For a 1% increase in CO₂ emissions efficiency, the CO₂ marginal abatement cost declines by 102 Yuan (in 2004 constant price). The results imply that improving CO₂ emissions efficiency plays an important role in marginal abatement cost reduction, and it also provides us a new approach to reduce abatement cost besides the technical progress.     

Small area estimates of daily person-miles of travel: 2001 National Household Transportation Survey

The National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) was designed at the national level, and for most states it does not have a large enough sample to produce reliable estimates, especially for subdomains (e.g., age groups) within a state. Using the 2001 NHTS, we produced small area estimates (SAEs) of the percentage of persons among four age groups (17 or younger, 18–39, 40–54, and 55 or older) having high daily person-miles of travel (more than 87.5 miles a day, which is the 90th percentile for daily person-miles traveled) and associated prediction intervals for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey weighted hierarchical Bayes (Folsom et al., Proc of the Sect on Surv Res Methods of the Am Stat Assoc 371–375, 1999) small area estimation (SAE) methodology was used to produce state-level SAEs. This paper describes the methodology and shows that SAE can be an effective technique for producing reliable state-level estimates from large, national surveys like the NHTS. In particular, the prediction interval relative widths for SAEs were, on average, 31–48% narrower than the corresponding design-based confidence interval widths, whereas for small states the reduction was around 47–63%.     

Nothing focuses the mind on productivity quite like the fear of liquidation: Changes in airline productivity in the United States, 2000–2004

Using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index, this paper examines changes in the productivity of the major United States passenger airlines from 2000 to 2004. The analysis finds that there was a significant improvement in the productivity of the carriers at transforming labor, fuel and passenger seating capacity into available seat-miles during this period. Most of the productivity improvements came about from the efficiency laggards catching up with the efficiency leaders in the industry. To a lesser extent, the adoption of new technologies improved productivity over this period.     

A week in the life of baby boomers: how do they see the spatial–temporal organization of their activities and travel?

In this paper, we take an initial look at the spatial and temporal flexibility in the activity patterns of the so-called “baby-boomer” cohort (born 1947–1966) in comparison with younger and older adults. Using a unique longitudinal survey carried in Quebec City from 2002 to 2005, we explore activity patterns and trip rates over a seven-day observation period during the first wave, and take a first look at some aspects of their evolution over two subsequent waves at about one-year intervals. We model the propensity to undertake activities within selected conventional non-work classifications such as “shopping” and “leisure”, and also according to respondents’ own perceptions of the spatial and temporal flexibility of each out-of-home activity that they had executed. While we cannot strictly separate cohort effects from age-related effects, after controlling for gender and household structure, we infer that age and related lifestyle effects dominate in explaining these propensities. However, the boomers were the only age stratum to increase their total out-of-home activity participation over the course of the panel, an intriguing starting point for the future study of this cohort.

Acquisition,efficiency and scale economies: An analysis of the British bus industry

The British Bus industry has undergone considerable transformation since privatization. Five major operators have emerged to dominate the market, a position almost exclusively attained through acquisition. This paper reviews the economies of scale argument commonly cited for this change and gives an overview of the acquisition process. It questions whether this argument gives a complete explanation for this industry development. For 58 individual companies, the level of technical efficiency attributable to firms operating at or near the optimum level of output is examined over 5 years to determine if mergers in practice have resulted in scale economies. Technical efficiency is estimated using data envelopment analysis, under assumptions of constant and variable returns to scale. Efficiency scores are then regressed on a time trend and a merger dummy to test whether acquired firms' efficiency has significantly improved above the average. It was found that over the period, efficiency had improved. This improvement, however, cannot be wholly attributed to the achievement of economies of scale. More specifically, there has been an improvement in the internal efficiency of acquired firms and some scale economies within group companies, the latter of which may have resulted from the eradication of competition.     

Some managerial and technical issues in transport sector development projects

In development projects there is only one problem, but it is huge: everything is connected to everything else. The authors separated from the whole the following important issues: (1) Project management and coordination: The Recipient Country’s Aid Coordination Unit (ACU) and Project Implementation Unit (PIU) staffed with competent local experts are necessary to hold the reform process memory. This issue is considered in the context of “Ownership” and “Government Leadership” as it is recognized in donor aid forums in the last decade. (2) Human resource development: Most technical assistance is oriented toward providing solutions, and the development of local capacities is ignored. The authors point out the importance of specially selected local experts—the “Technical Communication Officers”. (3) Institutional functioning: A ‘process consultation’ approach to institutional restructuring is promoted in which the Recipient has the key role. It is also recommended that the Recipient is the initiator of technical assistance in the projects. (4) Design standards are a recurrent and difficult problem. Recommendations are necessary how to transit to the new standards and how to mediate their approval process. (5) Procurement and management of consulting services: The authors argue that the recipient country qualified professionals have to be in the lead role. The vignettes in the paper are from the “real world” although they are modified slightly to protect privacy.     

Toxic air pollutants and trucking productivity in the US

This paper introduces toxic air pollutants into the measurement of trucking productivity to obtain true productivity growth. Our results show that omitting or ignoring toxic air pollutants in measuring trucking productivity yields statistically significant biased productivity estimates in for 2002-2005. Trucking productivity growth was understated by the traditional productivity measure, because the latter did not account for reductions in truck air pollution over time. We also find that the difference between traditional and environmental efficiency scores was negligible, suggesting that environmental constraint did not distort efficiency in the trucking sector.     

The impact of strategic management and fleet planning on airline efficiency - A random effects Tobit model based on DEA efficiency scores

As a result of the liberalisation of airline markets; the strong growth of low cost carriers; the high volatility in fuel prices; and the recent global financial crisis, the cost pressure that airlines face is very substantial. In order to survive in these very competitive environments, information on what factors impact on costs and efficiency of airlines is crucial in guiding strategic change. To evaluate key determinants of 58 passenger airlines’ efficiency, this paper applies a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, with partially bootstrapped random effects Tobit regressions in the second stage. Our results suggest that the effects of route optimisation, in the sense of average stage length of the fleet, are limited to airline technical efficiency. We show that airline size and key fleet mix characteristics, such as aircraft size and number of different aircraft families in the fleet, are more relevant to successful cost management of airlines since they have significant impacts on all three types of airline efficiency: technical, allocative and, ultimately, cost efficiency. Our results also show that despite the fuel saving benefits of younger aircraft, the age of an airline’s fleet has no significant impact on its technical efficiency, but does have a positive impact on its allocative and cost efficiency.     

An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation

This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics, neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels.     

Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models

The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood points and ρ² increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing countries.