The state-of-the-art in urban transportation planning or how we got here

This paper traces the development of urban transportation planning in the United States, focusing particularly on the influence that three previous conferences -Sagamore (1958), Hershey (1962), and Williamsburg (1965) - have had on the course of this development. Included also are comments on the current state of the art of urban transportation planning and observations as to its future direction.The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1934, which authorized the use of 1 percent funds for highway planning is identified as the progenitor of urban transportation planning in the U.S., and two reports based on information developed by the highway planning surveys first funded under the 1934 Act, Toll Roads and Free Roads (1939) and Interregional Highways (1944), are credited with preparing the ground for much of the urban transportation planning that was to follow.The rapid development of home interview survey techniques in the late 1940's and the full-scale introduction of computer technology in the Detroit Area Transportation Study are noted, as is the work of the National Committee on Urban Transportation, which was initiated in 1954 under sponsorship of the Automotive Safety Foundation. In addition to its substantial technical contributions, the NCUT, through its success in mobilizing the cooperative efforts of virtually every major group concerned with urban transportation, stimulated significant gains in Federal-State-local relationships and paved the way for increased Federal aid to cities in solving their local transportation problems.The impact of the 1956 and 1962 Federal-Aid Highway Acts on urban transportation planning is assessed. The substantial contributions, of the Hartford, Sagamore, Hershey, and Williamsburg conferences are discussed, as are their shortcomings. It is noted that many of our present concerns — environmental impacts, relationships between transportation and land use, need for cooperation among all levels of government, the multi-modal nature of urban transportation, and the need for citizen involvement, to name a few — were incorporated in the provisions of either one or another of the Federal-Aid statutes in the 1950's and 60's or appear in the recommendations of the several conferences. That these matters still concern us today is given as evidence that planning has not fully lived up to its promise and responsibility, that more rather than less planning is needed, and that, above all, new leadership to pick up where the old has left off must soon assert itself.     

The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Suburban congestion: Recommendations for transportation and land use responses

Transportation congestion is reaching intolerable levels in many urban and suburban areas in the US. Reliance upon traditional responses, such as transit and new highway capacity, is not working — especially in suburban areas. Although methods for dealing with suburban congestion are often different, there are a number of common features that must be considered in developing short term as well as more permanent and long lasting solutions. In proposing short term solutions, a Menu of Actions is described. It includes transportation actions (the traditional transit and transportation management options) where there are opportunities for getting more out of the existing systems; land use/growth management actions which will result in more rational land use-transportation interactions; financial incentives, to encourage or discourage appropriate actions; more comprehensive and systematic land use and transportation planning; and the organizational and institutional actions required to implement rational solutions.While the Manu of Actions provides a broad array of possible actions to provide relief in the short run, over time the growth in traffic is likely to outpace their effectiveness. Consequently, longer term and often more difficult solutions must be considered and implemented as appropriate. They could include changes in land use development and land use management policies; changes in lifestyle and business practices; improvements through technological innovation; changes in the traditional ways of providing transportation services; and greatly expanded research and development.     

Reflections on citizen involvement in urban transportation planning: Towards a positive approach

The purpose of this paper is to explore an important and unique role which community participation and involvement can play in a revised transportation planning process. A review of diverse views about community participation, as well as a critique of the current urban transportation planning process, reveals that the former has played, primarily, ad hoc opportunistic and diverse roles, and that the latter is in desperate need for dynamic, subjective, impact information — required to assess attractive transportation systems. The contributions of several disciplines — economics, operations research, management science, political science, public administration, and others — are reviewed to assist in the development of a conceptual framework for a new community participation role, as a provider of key information to the planning process. An eclectic, experimental approach is recommended to explore the possibilities further.     

Decision making processes governing federal expenditures within the transportation sector of the United States

The current process for allocating federal funds within the transportation sector of the U. S. is dominated by concerns for territorial equity, administrative feasibility, technical feasibility, and national defense. Economic efficiency as a long range objective is conspicuous by its absence except insofar as it is embodied in the desire to promote the commerce of the nation.Federal allocations for highways, waterways, and maritime subsidies are declining relative to urban public transit, and Coast Guard navigation related expenditures. Environmental considerations and obvious failure in the case of maritime subsidies appear to be the major reasons. Airport and airway allocations will be subject to the same negative forces.The next massive transportation program to appear in the federal budget other than urban public transit is likely to involve the national railway system. The big question here is how the money will be handed out. Economists and planners so far appear to have had little interest or impact in this difficult and crucial area of public decision making.Former Senior Economist, Policy and Plans Development, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs, U. S. Department of Transportation. Presently Advisor to the Government of Ethiopia with the Harvard University Development Advisory Service.     

Development of multimodal performance measures for transit systems in New York State

The New York State Department of Transportation was required to certify as to the economy and efficiency of transit operators participating in the State's public transportation operating assistance program. This paper describes the efforts undertaken to meet this mandate.Discussed are past efforts to link performance measures to funding programs; reasons for modifying measures which had been used in previous efforts; and some of the problems and issues raised by the use of such criteria. The paper identifies 15 performance measures being used by New York State in its evaluations, the actual ranges encountered in the transit operations being funded through the state program, and tentative acceptable and desirable levels of those measures which the Transportation Department is using in its evaluation. The role these measures play in the state's operating assistance policy decision process is also described.     

A tale of two cities

Land use and transportation mutually affect each other. Unfortunately, most transportation decision making procedures assume that public agencies cannot shape future land use patterns, and that past land use practices unswervingly determine future conditions. In A Tale of Two Cities, the author surveys the correlations between land use policies and travel behavior in two Oregon cities (Portland and Hillsboro).Building on successes the City of Portland has achieved in reducing reliance on the automobile, the author outlines a recent project by 1000 Friends of Oregon, titled Making the Land Use, Transportation, Air Quality Connection (LUTRAQ). According to the author, the purpose of LUTRAQ is to replicate Portland's approach in a more suburban context. Specifically, LUTRAQ is attempting to develop a realistic land use/transportation/demand management alternative to a proposed new bypass freeway and to accurately measure that alternative for its effects on travel demand, land use, air quality, climate change, and other indices. Although LUTRAQ is a project in progress, the author provides preliminary information that suggests the alternative successfully reduces demand for single occupancy automobile travel.     

Joint development at transit stations in the United States

Joint development, as the term is generally used in connection with transit systems in the United States, is real estate development that is closely linked to public transportation services and station facilities, and takes advantage of the market and locational advantages provided by them. Research conducted by LEK Associates for the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) suggests that, in addition to helping shape urban growth and land development, joint development is also a surprisingly effective means of increasing transit system ridership and farebox revenues, as well as a source of increasingly significant revenues from the sale or lease of air rights.The completion of nine joint development projects in as many different cities, started under the former Urban Initiatives Program, for example, net additional annual ridership might reach 12000000 one-way trips. Net additional annual farebox revenues might reach over $9000000. This added revenue would be sufficient to repay the $62 million combined UMTA/transit operator investment in the nine projects, exclusive of the costs of the basic transit system improvements around which the projects are planned, in less than six years.Among transit authority-administered joint development programs examined in a separate study, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) has had the most success in generating significant value capture income. For example, the cumulative revenue realized by WMATA from just six joint development projects in the Washington, DC region, through September 1983 exceeded $ 6.9 million. Projections through fiscal year 1986 indicate cumulative revenues approximating $ 28 million will be received from developer leases.     

Approaches to the future in U.S. urban transportation planning

In appreciation of the fact that longer-run considerations are particularly important in the development of urban transportation, during the past three decades American transportation planning has been employing increasingly sophisticated approaches to the future. This article discusses four phases in this evolution, with a given focus dominant in each period.During the first period, following on the initial provision of federal government funds for the construction of highways in and around cities, major reliance was based on simple projections of travel demand in metropolitan regions, based mainly on current patterns.This was followed by an approach which focused on an analysis of impacts on transportation systems of projected land uses, based on forecasts of population and economic growth for a target year, on the assumption that facilities were to be provided to move all vehicles that wanted to move from here to there at least possible cost.The third period was characterized by an increasing consciousness of the value of articulating national and local goals in making transportation decisions, going beyond narrow economic and mobility objectives, and including the notion of trade-offs among goals.The most recent period discussed is one characterized by rising interest in futures studies, using methods such as Delphi and cross-impact analysis and approaches such as alternative futures, as well as a search for achieving flexibility in transportation development and for means of limiting resource commitment in the face of the uncertainties of the future (keeping options open).It is pointed out that we still have a long way to go in learning how to evolve feasible images of the future, with associated explicit urban life-style goals, that come to grips with societal variety and conflicting interests.     

Lifestyles and transportation needs of the elderly in Los Angeles

This study examined the trip-making behavior of persons over 65 years of age residing in Los Angeles County. To date, the major shortcoming of most research concerned with the transportation needs of the elderly is that the aged have been treated as a homogeneous group without recognizing the various lifestyles of the senior population. The two most easily distinguishable groups of elderly persons within the county are those residing in the inner-city and those around the urban fringe. Although many elderly are still found in gray ghettos there is currently a trend toward a more suburban generation of retirees. Four areas were selected within the county that reflected these two living patterns of the elderly. A comparative analysis of trip patterns and socio-economic data was completed. It was found that the suburban elderly are characterized as (1) having higher incomes, (2) residing predominantly in single-family units and (3) being reliant upon automobile transportation. As is typical of a large proportion of those over 65 years of age, many of the suburban elderly cannot drive. Studies of the transportation needs of this group indicate that without transit alternatives they may well become society's most transit-deprived segment. On the other hand, while the inner-city elderly may have a wider range of transportation options, they also have a distinct economic disadvantage which preludes their accessibility to opportunities. An analysis of modal choices, trip purposes and the frequency of travel exhibited many similarities and some significant differences in the travel behavior as well as problems of these two groups.In addition to investigating travel patterns a survey of taxi-cab use on weekends and weekdays was undertaken. Elderly persons represent a substantial proportion of taxi-cab patrons. Their use of taxis is further indicative of the change that occurs in mobility patterns upon reaching retirement. This mode of transportation is presently the only type of demand-responsive service available to the senior population in some parts of the county.This report was produced as part of a program of Research and Training in Urban Transportation sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. The results and views expressed are the independent products of university research and are not necessarily concurred in by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the Department of Transportation.     

Performance indicators for transit management

Transit performance can be evaluated through quantitative indicators. As the provision of efficient and effective transit service are appropriate goals to be encouraged by federal and state governments, these goals are used to develop performance indicators.Three efficiency and four effectiveness indicators are described, together with two overall indicators. These nine indicators are analyzed for comparability utilizing operating and financial data collected from public transit agencies in California.Performance indicators selected for this study should not be viewed as final. Twenty-one performance indicators proposed by previous studies were reviewed. Theoretical considerations and unavailability or unreliability of data caused omission of several useful measures like passenger-miles. Circumstances such as improved data, emphasis upon goals other than efficiency and effectiveness, and local conditions might warrant the inclusion of indicators deleted from this research.This paper is based on work conducted for the Urban Mass Transportation Administration under University Research and Training Grant CA-11-0014, Development of Performance Indicators for Transit. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the University of California or the United States Government. We are indebted to John Feren for assistance with the statistical processing and data gathering.     

Second generation U.S. rail transit systems: Prospects and perils

So far in the decade of the 1970's, commitments have been made to construct a second generation of new rail systems in four urban areas — Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami and Buffalo. In this paper the authors speculate on the prospects and perils that lie ahead for these systems in the context of national and local expectations for rail transit and the experience of the first generation rail transit systems of San Francisco (BART) and Washington.     

Specifications for a new long-range urban transportation planning process

This paper asserts the continuing need for a long-range component to urban transportation planning, citing particularly the relationships between short- and long-range planning and the dangers of a single-minded concentration on short-range planning. However, the nature of the long-range planning procedure that is required is substantively different from that of most extant approaches. Some of the specific requirements and capabilities of a new procedure are described, and existing procedures are compared against these.In the latter part of the paper, some of the elements of a new long-range planning procedure are characterized. It is suggested that the procedure be built around a scenario approach to confronting and bounding future uncertainty. Second, the need to incor porate financial forecasting in the process is laid out and related to the scenario concept. Third, the need for travel- and impact-forecasting procedures is recognized and a set of input, output and operating requirements for such procedures are specified. It is suggested that improved sketch-planning tools may fit the requirements to a large extent. It is also suggested that some procedures or models in the process should be synthetic models, not needing calibration for each new application. Finally, a number of requirements are specified for the display and evaluation of planning proposals from this procedure. A major emphasis is placed here on transparency of the process and responsiveness to direct intervention by the decision-maker.     

Making do: The effects of a mass transit strike on travel behavior

A brief transit strike in early December 1976 disrupted bus services to the city of Pittsburgh and surrounding Allegheny County. That strike provided an opportunity for testing a variety of approaches to increase ride-sharing and to reduce traffic congestion, and for examining the effect of the strike on traffic congestion and on individual travel behavior. Even though over 60% of the commuters to the CBD use transit, the effects of the strike were relatively mild. There was some increase in traffic flow into the CBD and some spreading of the peak period. The largest proportion of the transit commuters who made trips to the CBD during the strike were dropped off by a non-commuter, increasing highway traffic. The most severe impact was felt by those transit commuters who had no cars in the household; 25% of these commuters (only 3% of the total CBD commuters) stayed home from work on the first day of the strike. Most attempts to mitigate the impact of the strike had little effect, largely because most commuters were able to manage adequately during the short strike. The anticipated parking problem, on which much of the contingency planning was focused, did not emerge, largely because of the use of carpooling and drop-off mode by many of the transit users.     

An analysis of the 1968 rapid transit vote in Los Angeles

Analysis of the results of past mass transit bond issues can aid transportation planners in understanding and anticipating voter behavior. This paper reports the results of an analysis of the 1968 rapid transit bond issue vote in Los Angeles, California. The simple relationships of the vote to a variety of possible explanatory variables are first examined. An attempt to assess the relative independent importance of these variables and to offer a partial explanation of the vote using multiple regression analysis is then presented. Variables found to have had the greatest impact on the vote are proximity to the proposed transit system, income-level, and ethnicity. Variables found to have had little or no effect, on the other hand, are population density, age, partisanship, and election turnout rate. The analysis indicates that the frequently used mood-of-the-electorate explanation of bond-issue failures in general, and transit proposals in particular, underestimates the quality of the electoral decision. The electorate does make rational distinctions, and future bonding attempts will confront voters capable of perceiving the utility to them of proposed transit systems and voting accordingly. The policy implications of this analysis suggest that the design of future mass transit proposals should, firstly more explicitly attempt to incorporate the preferences of middle-income voters, and secondly, be part of a comprehensive transit plan for the entire metropolitan area.     

Travel demand model system for the information era

The emergence of new information technologies and recent advances in existing technologies have provided new dimensions for travel demand decisions. In this paper we propose a comprehensive travel demand modeling framework to identify and model the urban development decisions of firms and developers and the mobility, activity and travel decisions of individuals and households, and to develop a system of models that can be used by decision makers and planners to evaluate the effects of changes in the transportation system and development of information technologies (e.g. various tele-commuting, tele-services and Intelligent Transportation Systems).The implementation of an operational model system based on this framework is envisioned as an incremental process starting with the current best practice of disaggregate travel demand model systems. To this end, we present an activity-based model system as the first stage in the development of an operational model system.     

Evaluating employer programs encouraging the use of alternate transportation modes: Two studies

Since 1976, major Denver metropolitan area firms have been required to encourage employees to use mass transit, carpooling, bicycling, and other alternate transportation modes to commute to work. The encouragement programs of 36 firms were clearly associated with greater use of alternate transportation modes, with the portion of variance in alternate transportation use explained by differences in employer programs of approximately 15%. The effects of the programs on deterring alternate mode users from returning to solo driving are consistently weaker than their effects on persuading drivers to try alternate transportation modes initially. Recommendations for the conduct of alternate transportation encouragement programs are made, based on these and other results. In addition, two recommendations are made concerning the evaluation of encouragement programs: that aggregate percentage change in alternate transportation use should not be used as the sole measure of success, and that environmental variables such as the availability of and pressure for use of alternate transportation modes should be measured and controlled.     

The Market for Transportation-Land Use Integration: Do Developers Want Smarter Growth than Regulations Allow?

Transportation and land use research of the past decade has focused in large part on the question of whether manipulating land uses in the direction of smart growth alternatives can reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or otherwise improve travel behavior. Yet the notion of manipulating land uses implies that the alternative is somehow self-organized or market-based. This view appears to underestimate the extent to which current planning interventions in the United States – largely focused on lowering development densities, mandating ample road and parking designs, and separating land uses – impose an auto-oriented template on most new development. Rather than a market failure, the paucity of smart growth alternatives may be a planning failure – the result of municipal regulatory exclusion. This problem definition would shift the burden of proof for policy reform, as uncertainty in travel-behavior benefits would hardly justify the continuation of exclusionary regulations. If municipal regulations in fact constrain alternatives to low-density, auto-oriented development, one would expect developers to perceive unsatisfied market interest in such development. This article studies, through a national survey (676 respondents), US developers' perceptions of the market for pedestrian-and transit-oriented development forms. Overall, respondents perceive considerable market interest in alternative development forms, but believe that there is inadequate supply of such alternatives relative to market demand. Developer-respondents attribute this gap between supply and demand principally to local government regulation. When asked how the relaxation of these regulations would affect their product, majorities of developers indicated that such liberalization would lead them to develop in a denser and more mixed-use fashion, particularly in close-in suburban locales. Results are interpreted in favor land-policy reform based on the expansion of choice in transportation and land use. This view contrasts with a more prevalent approach which conditions policy interventions on scientific evidence of travel-behavior modification.     

Interactive sensitivity analysis in transportation plan evaluation

An experimental technique for exploring the sensitivity of transportation plan evaluations to forecasting and community value uncertainties is described. Three kinds of uncertainty — goal-achievement impacts, costs, and goal-weights — are included. Within a cost-effectiveness evaluation framework, an on-line capability for interactively and iteratively testing plan comparisons is outlined. A series of user-oriented computer instructions is developed to test plan comparison outcomes according to a wide variety of user-selected changes in impact forecasts, goal weights, and cost forecasts. A sample, hypothetical application of the technique is described. The technique is currently under further development by the San Diego Region Comprehensive Planning Organization.