基于LEAP模型的佛山市交通碳排放研究

随着城市化的发展,珠三角城市交通能源消耗和碳排放迅速增长。为了探讨珠三角城市低碳交通的发展方向,本文采用LEAP模型,以珠三角的佛山市为例,模拟了不同情景下交通总量、陆运和水运的能源消耗、能源结构和碳排放由2011至2030年的变化情况;并据此提出了珠三角城市低碳交通发展对策。结果表明:水运在交通运输中所占份额逐渐被陆运替代,将形成陆运为主、水运为辅的交通模式;在交通总量、陆运和水运等的交通能耗及碳排放方面,低碳情景均小于基准情景,且呈水运小于陆运的态势;而清洁能源使用比重的增加则有利于交通领域的低碳发展。珠三角城市低碳交通发展需关注陆运交通,提高清洁能源在陆运中的使用比重,优化陆运与水运的交通布局,提高运输及能源利用效率。     

日本低碳交通发展策略简析

作为温室气体排放大国,日本在过去20年间一直致力于减少CO2排放量和应对全球温室效应问题。本文总结介绍在日本国家环境对策的指导下,交通运输部门为实现削减CO2排放量所提出的地球温暖化对策,并列举部分城市的低碳交通政策实例,提出对我国交通发展的建议,以供我国有关低碳发展、节能减排的相关人士参考。     

芜湖市近十年碳排放研究及结构对策分析

文章基于芜湖市历年的各类统计数据,利用《IPCC2006国家温室气体清单指南》推荐的基准方法,结合当地的实际情况分为能源消耗、工业生产过程、区域人口生理活动、以及机动车排放四大类估算出2001年至2010年十年间该地区的CO2排放总量以及结构的巨大变化,并将其与经济、人口等方面综合分析,得出该地区的排放规律趋势,并针对这些排放的特点提出了芜湖市CO2减排的建议措施。     

高速公路运营期节能减排绩效评价指标体系研究

基于高速公路运营期能源消耗和污染物排放的特点,对高速公路运营期节能减排绩效进行定性评价,提出了节能减排评价体系以及评价指标选取的原则,并按照各评价指标对运营期节能减排的影响程度,采用突变级数法对指标进行了定性和定量的对比分析,并以运营期能耗和排放的主要环节即隧道、收费站等管理单位和服务区等服务单位三个方面作为分类依据,建立了相对应的节能减排绩效评价指标体系,并形成了各评价体系的等级划分标准,为高速公路运营期节能减排绩效评价提供理论基础。     

交通运输能耗与排放统计监测平台及应用研究

在我国交通运输行业节能减排的背景下,本文以交通运输行业能耗特点与统计监测方法为基础,建立涵盖了公路客运、公路货运、城市公交、城市出租、水路运输、港口生产等行业的能耗碳排统计监测系统,分析了省级交通运输能耗与排放特点,明确了能耗数据统计对象与内容,并对能耗数据采集的方法进行了研究,建立了省级交通运输能耗统计监测系统,并以辽宁省交通运输为依托,对全省交通运输行业能耗统计监测系统进行了验证与应用,同时也为交通运输行业的节能减排提供了决策支撑和数据支持。     

四川省公路水路货运能耗及碳排放趋势预测方法研究

为充分掌握交通运输业的能耗和碳排放量,本文首先利用二次平滑指数法对四川省的GDP值进行预测,再利用货运量与GDP的相关性预测出四川省公路水路货运量,其次根据相关统计数据及典型企业的调研数据得到历年公路水路货运量能耗和碳排放强度,分别对基准情境和绿色情境下的能耗和碳排放强度进行预测,最后得到不同情境下四川省公路水路货运能耗和碳排放量及节能减排趋势,为低碳交通的发展奠定了鉴定的基础。     

节能减排是"十二五"交通发展的重要任务

交通运输行业是石油消费最多、大气污染物排放最多的行业。目前我国交通发展正处于加快建设的黄金时期,"十二五"期我国运输能源对外依存度继续提高,承担减排温室气体责任的国际环境压力越来越大。交通大发展与节能减排责任双加速使得节能减排成为"十二五"交通发展的重要任务。     

基于LCA的沥青路面养护能耗测算及软件开发

基于沥青路面寿命周期评估建立了评价指标体系,通过调查获取施工过程中能源消耗量,测算分析了典型沥青路面施工过程及再生技术关键环节的能耗及排放。在基础数据建立的基础上,开发了养护技术节能减排评估软件。研究结果表明,普通热拌沥青路面施工过程中,拌和过程能耗占比最大,而摊铺碾压环节较小,厂拌热再生拌和能耗与RAP料掺量有关,冷再生技术节能减排效果显著,沥青路面养护设计节能减排评估软件可精确评估节能减排效果,为方案决策提供参考。     

我国城市交通节能减排政策研究

文章通过对我国当前城市交通领域能源消耗和污染排放的研究,从经济学的角度对节能减排政策进行理论分析,结合我国现行的城市节能减排体系与具体实践进行探讨,指出目前城市交通节能减排所出现的问题,在借鉴国外经验的基础上,针对我国城市交通节能减排政策提出建议。     

综合运用节能减排技术打造低碳高效道路客运

常州公路运输集团有限公司以“打造低碳高效道路客运”为目标,结合节能减排新形势,重点从“人—车—管理”等影响道路客运能耗的三个重要因素入手,推行了“完善机务管理办法、调整车辆技术结构、引进清洁能源、采用先进信息技术手段、积极推广驾驶节能操作方法”等系列措施,形成了一套行之有效的道路客运节能管理方法,提高了全体职工节能减排的积极性和责任意识,营造了“打造低碳高效道路客运企业”的良好氛围,使集团公司的综合能耗逐年下降,取得了显著的经济和社会效益.     

Modeling and forecasting household energy consumption and related CO2 emissions integrating UrbanSim and transportation models: an Atlanta BeltLine case study

Reducing energy consumption and controlling greenhouse gas emissions are key challenges for urban residents. Because urban areas are complex and dynamic, affected by many driving factors in terms of growth, development, and demographics, urban planners and policy makers need a sophisticated understanding of how residential lifestyle, transportation behavior, land-use changes, and land-use policies affect residential energy consumption and associated CO₂ emissions. This study presents an approach to modeling and simulating future household energy consumption and CO₂ emissions over a 30-year planning period, using an energy-consumption regression approach based on the UrbanSim model. Outputs from UrbanSim for a baseline scenario are compared with those from a no-transportation-demand model and an Atlanta BeltLine scenario. The results indicate that incorporation of a travel demand model can make the simulation more reasonable and that the BeltLine project holds potential for curbing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.     

The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050

The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US transport needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850 Mt CO₂ equivalent with standard deviation of 130 and 230 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The parameters that are major contributors to variations in emissions and fuel consumption are also identified and ranked through the uncertainty analysis. It is further shown that these major contributors change over time, and include parameters such as: vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel economy of the dominant naturally-aspirated spark ignition vehicles, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. The findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainties into consideration when choosing amongst alternative fuel and emissions reduction pathways, in the light of their possible consequences.     

Low-carbon futures for Shenzhen’s urban passenger transport: A human-based approach

Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving China’s ambitious CO₂ emission reduction targets. Using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we develop a human-based agent model to conduct a scenario study of future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from 2014 to 2050. Responses to different policy interventions at the individual level are taken into account. We find that with current policies, the carbon emissions of the urban passenger transport sector in Shenzhen will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. Strengthening 21 transport policies will help Shenzhen to peak the carbon emissions by 2030 for passenger transport. Among these policies, the car quota policy and the fuel economy standard are essential for achieving a carbon peak by 2030. In addition, a package of seven policies, including fewer car quotas, a stricter fuel economy standard, raising parking fees, limiting parking supply, increasing EV charging facilities and subway lines, and improving public transport services, is sufficient to peak carbon emissions by 2030, although at an emissions level higher than for the 21 policies.     

Powertrain technologies and their impact on greenhouse gas emissions in key car markets

The role alternative car technologies may play in effectively tackling the problem of climate change is still highly uncertain. This paper aims at investigating possible impacts of car powertrain technologies on future energy demand and its corresponding greenhouse gas emissions until 2030. A system dynamics model covering nine car technologies in China, France, Germany, India, Japan and the United States was applied, with a focus on electric cars. Four main scenarios are constructed and sensitivity analysis undertaken. Greenhouse gas emissions from cars in the six countries are simulated to reach up to 2.6 gigatonnes in 2030 (a 13–32% increase between 2020 and 2030, depending on the scenario). The main conclusion from model-based policy analysis is that electric cars may have a positive contribution to emissions mitigation in the passenger road transport system. However, greenhouse gas emissions from cars arising from the combined effect of car manufacturing and scrappage and electricity generation processes are expected to grow more dramatically. As a result, actions that support both low-emission (re-)manufacturing and clean electricity generation are needed. These results complement accurate but static life cycle assessments and open the discussion for dynamic model assumptions.     

Comparison of emerging ground propulsion systems for electrified aircraft taxi operations

Aviation is a mode with high fuel consumption per passenger mile and has significant environmental impacts. It is important to seek ways to reduce fuel consumption by the aviation sector, but it is difficult to improve fuel efficiency during the en-route cruise phase of flight because of technology barriers, safety requirements, and the mode of operations of air transportation. Recent efforts have emphasized the development of innovative Aircraft Ground Propulsion Systems (AGPS) for electrified aircraft taxi operations. These new technologies are expected to significantly reduce aircraft ground-movement-related fuel burn and emissions. This study compares various emerging AGPS systems and presents a comprehensive review on the merits and demerits of each system, followed with the local environmental impacts assessment of these systems. Using operational data for the 10 busiest U.S. airports, a comparison of environmental impacts is performed for four kinds of AGPS: conventional, single engine-on, external, and on-board systems. The results show that there are tradeoffs in fuel and emissions among these emerging technologies. On-board system shows the best performance in the emission reduction, while external system shows the least fuel burn. Compared to single-engine scenario, external AGPS shows the reduction of HC and CO emissions but the increase of NO_x emission. When a general indicator is considered, on-board AGPS shows the best potential of reducing local environmental impacts. The benefit-cost analysis shows that both external and on-board systems are worth being implemented and the on-board system appeals to be more beneficial.     

High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspective

Abstract

This paper quantifies and evaluates, utilising a ‘bottom-up’ approach, the effect on CO₂ emissions of a modal shift from short-haul air travel to high-speed rail (HSR), based on projected passenger movements, between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2010–2030. To date, peer-reviewed studies assessing the CO₂ emissions from these competing modes of high-speed transportation have been restricted principally to a cross-sectional assessment, with a Eurocentric bias. This present comparative study seeks to address a gap in the literature by assessing, longitudinally, the CO₂ emissions associated with the proposed operation of HSR against the ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario between Sydney and Melbourne. Under the assumed 50/50 modal shift, and the Australian government's current renewable electricity target, an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of approximately 14% could be achieved when compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario. This percentage reduction represents a 62 kt reduction in base year, 2010, and a 114 kt reduction in the final year, 2030. In total, the overall reduction achieved by such a modal shift, under the assumed conditions, during the period 2010–2030, equates to approximately 1.87 Mt of CO₂. Importantly, if the electrical energy supply for HSR operations was further ‘decarbonised’, then it follows that a greater emission reduction would be achieved.     

A comparative life-cycle energy and emissions analysis for intercity passenger transportation in the U.S. by aviation,intercity bus,and automobile

Intercity passenger trips constitute a significant source of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria pollutant emissions. The most commonly used city-to-city modes in the United States include aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. This study applies state-of-the-practice models to assess life-cycle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions for intercity trips via aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. The analyses compare the fuel and emissions impacts of different travel mode scenarios for intercity trips ranging from 200 to 1600 km. Because these modes operate differently with respect to engine technology, fuel type, and vehicle capacity, the modeling techniques and modeling boundaries vary significantly across modes. For aviation systems, much of the energy and emissions are associated with auxiliary equipment activities, infrastructure power supply, and terminal activities, in addition to the vehicle operations between origin/destination. Furthermore, one should not ignore the embodied energy and initial emissions from the manufacturing of the vehicles, and the construction of airports, bus stations, highways and parking lots. Passenger loading factors and travel distances also significantly influence fuel and emissions results on a per-traveler basis. The results show intercity bus is generally the most fuel-efficient mode and produced the lowest per-passenger-trip emissions for the entire range of trip distances examined. Aviation is not a fuel-efficient mode for short trips (<500 km), primarily due to the large energy impacts associated with takeoff and landing, and to some extent from the emissions of ground support equipment associated with any trip distance. However, aviation is more energy efficient and produces less emissions per-passenger-trip than low-occupancy automobiles for trip distances longer than 700–800 km. This study will help inform policy makers and transportation system operators about how differently each intercity system perform across all activities, and provides a basis for future policies designed to encourage mode shifts by range of service. The estimation procedures used in this study can serve as a reference for future analyses of transportation scenarios.     

Analysis of the impact of hybrid vehicles on energy systems in Japan

This study examines the impact of using hybrid vehicles for passenger transportation on carbon emissions in the Japanese energy system. A partial equilibrium model of the energy sector has been developed to forecast changes in the energy system out to the year 2040. The model can account for changes in technology capacities, fuels, and consumption in response to policy initiatives, such as taxes. We find that hybrid vehicles are more efficient in reducing carbon dioxide emission than conventional vehicles. Hybrid vehicles have a great impact on reducing carbon emissions when BTU taxes are imposed, which in turn has the advantage of encouraging a more diverse set of technologies and fuels.     

绿色高速公路运营期在线监测技术体系研究——环境、气象、能耗监测

为了做好高速公路运营期环境、气象、能耗的在线监测,保证行车安全、提升服务功能、减少碳排放,本文针对高速公路运营期的空气、水、噪声等环境污染问题,气象灾害导致的交通事故问题,运管养护能源消耗量大的问题,提出建立绿色高速公路在线监测技术体系。该体系基于环境监测、气象监测、能耗监测三个方面,明确监测布点选择及相应指标,开展基础数据采集,并架构在线监测系统平台进行综合分析。该体系面向高速公路管理部门,可为高速公路管理决策提供技术支持,为运营期在线监测技术的集成应用奠定理论基础。