全球国家、地区竞争力排行榜（2010年）

快速增长的民用航空业正面临不断波动的航空燃油价格和燃油对环境造成负面影响的威胁。航空业正在探索各种能提高燃油效率、减少二氧化碳排放的方法，其中一个方法可能因此改变传统的能源模式，即研发生物类可再生航空燃油替代传统燃油，以减少二氧化碳排放从而减少污染。可以预见在不久的将来，生物燃油将会在航空公司运营中占有越来越重要的比例。     

我国水上航空业发展策略分析

近年来全球水上航空业出现复苏迹象,并在短途运输、低空旅游、飞行体验等领域具有较强的发展优势。随着我国水上航空需求增长和国家支持通用航空业发展的利好政策不断出台,各地纷纷谋划水上航空业的发展。本文首先分析了水上航空产业链的组成部分,并对我国水上航空制造、运营、服务保障等方面的发展现状进行了梳理,总结我国水上航空业布局特征和发展瓶颈,最后提出发展策略与建议。     

东星停航解析与民营航空发展思考

<正>3月14日,民航中南地区管理局同意了武汉市政府提出的关于暂停东星航空公司运营的请求,自当日24时起,东星航空暂时停止运营。这并不是个案,在此之前,我国首家民营航空公司——奥凯航空自2008年     

2010年世博会对我国民航运输业的影响分析

本文通过分析历届世博会对航空运输业的影响,指出上海世博会短期内将改善航空业的基础设施,提高企业的盈利水平,而从长远来看,将显著增强行业的发展潜力,成为我国建设民航强国的重要契机。     

中国支线航空运输市场的现状与发展机遇

本文通过对中国支线航空市场现状做出概括性介绍,阐述其所拥有的发展机遇及广阔的市场潜力,并对国内典型省份的支线航空运营环境进行了分析,最后,就目前堪称"大萧条以来最严重的经济危机"环境下,支线航空能为困境中的中国航空业带来何种推动进行了探讨。     

低成本航空还未步入“大时代”

<正>今年以来,基地设在贵阳的华夏航空宣布将按照低成本航空模式运营,东航集团旗下的中国联合航空公司正式转型为低成本航空公司。一时间,我国的低成本航空似乎有遍地开花之势,很多人因此断言低成本航空时代已经到来。但是,时代也有"大小"之分,我国的低成本航空还远未步入"大时代"。数据显示,目前低成本航空公司占全球市场份额的26%。在北美和欧洲,这一比例分别达到30%及40%。而作为世界第二民航大国,我国低成本航空公司目前的市场份额还不到5%,且春秋     

机场接驳：创新运输 助力航空——地面交通助力“第一国门”——访首都机场公共区管理部副经理刘喆

改革开放以来,航空业在综合运输体系中一直不占重要地位,近年来,随着中国经济的快速发展,人们对高效快捷的航空客货运需求日益增长,中国民航业迎来了高速发展期,传统机场纷纷改建扩建,地方政府投资新建机场的热情也跟组建地方航空公司的热情一样高。大规模的机场改、扩、建高潮反映了中国经济的发展实力,体现了人民群众对出行质量的要求。     

从瑞安航空的成功看低成本航空的发展前景

<正>低成本航空公司在国外已有30多年的发展历程。在低成本航空模式中,爱尔兰的瑞安航空堪称佼佼者。而低成本航空公司在我国还是一个新生事物,我国首家也是目前惟一一家低成本航空公司春秋航空依然在孤独地探索着。     

关于我国通用航空产业发展的思考分析

通用航空产业在我国国民经济中所占的地位重要性日益彰显,为促进通用航空的发展,近年来国家和地方政府一直在加大对通用航空产业地投入,相继出台了促进通用航空发展的优惠政策,长期以来,通用航空产业作为进入门槛高,科技含量高,运营成本高的"三高"产业,阻碍了通用航空在我国的健康发展,本文简要讨论了通用航空业发展的立业之本,产业定位以及通用航空在我国的发展规划和前景分析,为我国通用航空的产业规划提供了参考     

基于ISM模型的低成本航空公司基地选择研究——以春秋航空公司为例

航空公司基地是航空公司设立在机场的保障机构,承担着航线网络支撑点的作用,因此基地选择对航空公司航线发展具有重要的意义。本文结合低成本航空发展的特点,从宏观环境、行业环境、航空公司运营和机场运营四个方面找出影响低成本航空基地选择的重要因素,并引入系统工程中的解释结构模型,对因素进行关系判断,分析影响因素的作用机制并提出基地选择决策路径。最后,以春秋航空公司为例,运用上述方法为其基地选择提供决策依据。     

航空公司安全管理绩效动态提升机制

为解决航空公司安全管理决策短期化、滞后化问题,有效提升其安全管理水平,在民航安全管理理论系统分析的基础上,深入挖掘安全管理绩效要素及其影响路径,构建了航空公司安全管理绩效系统动力学模型。通过专家访谈法确定了各要素指标间的影响关系及其权重,并运用VENSIM软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:当航空公司安全管理绩效达到某种程度后,其提升速率呈减缓趋势,需及时调整安全投入策略;此时安全政策和目标、安全监督检查、安全保障资源和安全沟通可作为未来提升安全管理绩效的最佳干预策略组合,为航空公司的安全管理决策提供科学依据。     

A comparative study of aviation safety briefing media: card,video, and video with interactive controls

Passengers’ safety knowledge is a key factor in determining the chance of surviving any life- or injury-threatening situation that could occur in civil aviation. Aviation regulations require airlines to provide safety briefings to inform passengers of safety procedures on board. The safety briefing card and the safety briefing video are the two media that airlines routinely employ on board to this purpose. Unfortunately, research on aviation safety briefing media has cast serious doubts about their efficacy, urging researchers to better understand what makes safety briefing media effective as well as improving their effectiveness. This paper contributes to such goals in two different ways. First, it proposes the introduction of interactive technology into aviation safety briefings for improving their effectiveness. Second, it illustrates a controlled study that compares the effectiveness of three safety briefing media: the two briefing media that airlines currently employ on-board (safety briefing card and safety briefing video) and a safety briefing video extended with basic interactive controls. The results obtained by the study highlight a superior effectiveness of the two video media over the card media for aviation safety briefings. Moreover, the video with interactive controls produced improvements over the card in a larger number of effectiveness measures than the traditional video. The paper includes a discussion of factors that can explain the better results obtained with the video conditions, and in particular the video with interactive controls, and of possible additional extensions to increase the interactivity of aviation safety briefings.     

Flight delays,capacity investment and social welfare under air transport supply-demand equilibrium

This paper analyzes benefits from aviation infrastructure investment under competitive supply-demand equilibrium. The analysis recognizes that, in the air transportation system where economies of density is an inherent characteristic, capacity change would trigger a complicated set of adjustment of and interplay among passenger demand, air fare, flight frequency, aircraft size, and flight delays, leading to an equilibrium shift. An analytical model that incorporates these elements is developed. The results from comparative static analysis show that capacity constraint suppresses demand, reduces flight frequency, and increases passenger generalized cost. Our numerical analysis further reveals that, by switching to larger aircraft size, airlines manage to offset part of the delay effect on unit operating cost, and charge passengers lower fare. With higher capacity, airlines tend to raise both fare and frequency while decreasing aircraft size. More demand emerges in the market, with reduced generalized cost for each traveler. The marginal benefit brought by capacity expansion diminishes as the capacity-demand imbalance becomes less severe. Existing passengers in the market receive most of the benefit, followed by airlines. The welfare gains from induced demand are much smaller. The equilibrium approach yields more plausible investment benefit estimates than does the conventional method. In particular, when forecasting future demand the equilibrium approach is capable of preventing the occurrence of excessive high delays.     

Deregulating European aviation — A case study

European international scheduled aviation has been characterised by bans on market entry, price collusion, and capacity sharing. High fares were charged compared to world standards and the fares charged by European charter airlines.In May 1986 new entrants with pricing freedom were permitted on the London-Dublin route which was then the third largest in European scheduled international aviation. Prior to deregulation the route experienced high fare growth. The unrestricted fare ex-London increased 72.6 per cent compared to a Retail Price Index increase of 41.5 per cent. There was a growth in passenger numbers in the years 1980–85 of 2.8 per cent.Since deregulation passenger numbers have risen to 2.3 million compared to 994,000 before deregulation. Fares have declined by an estimated 37 per cent ex-Dublin and 42 per cent ex-London in real terms. There have been four cases of market entry and one of market exit. The estimated share of the new entrants in the second half of 1989 was 28 per cent. The preregulation earnings data of Aer Lingus, the market leader, indicated that protection allowed staff to earn economic rents. A two-tier structure was introduced in response to competition.Remaining barriers to contestability in UK/Ireland aviation include hub airport dominance, ground handling monopolies, and the ability of airlines with routes in both regulated and deregulated markets to engage in geographical price discrimination against airlines with routes in deregulated markets only. A pro-contestability aviation policy in Europe will require measures to prevent the abuse of dominant positions by established airlines over new market entrants and to prevent collusion between established airlines.     

Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping

Using a system of equations model, we analyze how cash flow shocks influence the investment and financing decisions of shipping firms in different economic environments. Even financially healthy shipping firms felt strong negative effects on their financing activities during the recent crisis. These firms were nevertheless able to increase long-term debt. Banks internalized the impact of foreclosure decisions on vessel prices and avoided an industry-wide collateral channel effect. Even during benign economic conditions, financially weak shipping firms underinvest because of their inability to raise sufficient external capital. The substitution between long- and short-term debt during the pre-2008 crisis periods shows that the composition of financing sources is more indicative of whether firms face financial constraints than the pure size of the financing-cash flow sensitivities. An analysis of firms’ excess cash holdings confirms the importance of financial flexibility.     

Evaluating competitiveness using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process—A case study of Chinese airlines

With the development of a national market economy, the Chinese aviation industry is now confronted with international competition. Therefore, it is necessary to research the competitive status of Chinese national aviation, as well as advice on how to enhance the competitiveness of the Chinese aviation industry. The main objective of this paper is to propose FAHP as an effective solution for resolving the uncertainty and imprecision in the evaluation of airlines' competitiveness. In this paper, we review the research of industrial international aviation competitiveness at both home and abroad, discuss a theoretical framework for the study of aviation competitiveness, establish an index system with five first‐order indicators and 17 second‐order indicators, set up a Chinese aviation competitiveness model based on simple fuzzy numbers from the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and evaluate the competitiveness of five major Chinese airlines. The results showed that this model and these indicators are scientific and practical, with a wide range of application prospects for the purpose of improving and increasing Chinese airline competitiveness in the international market. The effective approach presented in this paper is especially applicable when subjective judgments on performance ratings and attribute weights are not accessible or reliable, or when suitable decision makers are not available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy?

Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994–2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of ‘sustainable aviation’ and ‘zero-emission flight’. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute ‘technology myths’, and the role these ‘myths’ may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation.     

Analysis of a proposed mechanism for carbon-neutral growth in international aviation

In October 2013, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced that it would put in place a market-based mechanism to cap net greenhouse gas emissions from international civil aviation at 2020 levels. This paper analyses the obligations that would be placed on real airlines under an initial draft “Strawman” proposal that was originally formulated as a starting point for discussions within ICAO, and the extent to which such a proposal would succeed in keeping emissions at or below the desired level. The provisions of the ICAO proposal were then applied to more than 100 existing airlines. In order to protect commercial sensitivities, we used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify groups of different types of airlines. We report the results for these groups rather than for individual airlines. While ambiguities in the Strawman proposal complicated the analysis, we found that, depending on their size and rate of growth, airlines will be required to offset very different proportions of their emissions from international flights. A system of de minimis exemptions, as currently proposed, would benefit some rich countries as well as poor ones. Targeting such exemptions more narrowly would raise practical difficulties, which we describe. We conclude by recommending that ICAO design and implement a much simpler system; and propose one alternative.     

Airline Jet Fuel Hedging: Theory and Practice

Abstract

Most international airlines hedge fuel costs, but the theoretical justification behind this action is weak. The paper explores the nature and extent of airline fuel hedging and asks why airlines hedge. The availability of hedging instruments is first discussed, with the most liquid markets in crude and exchange traded contracts. Aviation fuel contracts are possible, but with counter‐party risk. Most major passenger airlines with sufficient cash and credit now hedge at least part of their future needs. Hedging does protect profits against a sudden upturn in crude prices caused by political and consumer uncertainty leading to slower economic growth. However, if higher oil prices are induced by strong economic growth and oil supply constraints, hedging increases volatility with hedging gains reinforcing improved profits from higher traffic and improved yields. If hedging does not reduce volatility, it may still have an accounting role in moving profits from one time period to another, insure against bankruptcy, and signal the competence of management to investors and other stakeholders.     

Contract Design,Financing Arrangements and Public Ownership—An Assessment of the US Airport Governance Model

Abstract

US airports negotiate legally binding contracts with airlines and finance large investment projects with revenue bonds. Applying insights from transaction cost economics, we argue that the observed variation in contractual and financing arrangements at US airports corresponds to the parties' needs for safeguarding and coordination. The case evidence presented reveals that public owners set the framework for private investments and contracting. We suggest that airline contracts and capital market control result in comparative efficient investments and act as a check on the cost inefficiency typically linked to public ownership.