Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget

As urban areas face increasing demands for new transport infrastructure to promote a sustainable future with an increasing reality of constrained government budgets, the debate on whether we should focus on rail or bus-based investments continues unabated in many jurisdictions. Associated with the debate is an emotional (or ideological) bias by communities in favour of one mode, especially rail, which carries much sway at the political level as if there is no budget constraint. This paper presents a stated choice experiment to investigate this context as two unlabelled options described by 20 potential drivers of community preferences for improved public transport, where each choice scenario is conditioned on an estimated construction cost and a total annual transport infrastructure budget for the relevant geographical jurisdiction. This is followed by a labelling of each alternative to reveal whether the option is bus rapid transit (BRT) or light rail (LRT) and to establish whether this additional information influences preference revision. Data is collected in all eight capital cities of Australia in mid 2014. Mixed logit models with heteroscedastic conditioning in terms of the cost of the project infrastructure and whether the alternative is labelled BRT or LRT, provide new evidence on the nature and extent of community modal bias in a budget-constrained choice setting. The conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, if a fully compensatory choice rule is assumed (as is common in all previous modal comparison studies), LRT is predominantly preferred over BRT despite budgetary constraints, similarities in quality of service attributes and the opportunity to choose a greater network coverage for a given construction cost. However, when we allow for attribute non-attendance (a semi-compensatory choice rule), the modal bias is no longer a significant driver of preferences.     

Solving network equilibrium problems on multimodal urban transportation networks with multiple user classes

The capacity of the high‐speed train to compete against travel demand in private vehicles is analysed. A hypothetical context analysed as the high‐speed alternative is not yet available for the route studied. In order to model travel demand, experimental designs were applied to obtain stated preference information. Discrete choice logit models were estimated in order to derive the effect of service variables on journey utility. From these empirical demand models, it was possible to predict for different travel contexts and individuals the capacity of the high‐speed train to compete with the car, so determining the impact of the new alternative on modal distribution. Furthermore, individual willingness to pay for travel time saving is derived for different contexts. The results allow us to confirm that the high‐speed train will have a significant impact on the analysed market, with an important shift of passengers to the new rail service being expected. Different transport policy scenarios are derived. The cost of travel appears to a great extent to be a conditioning variable in the modal choice. These results provide additional evidence for the understanding of private vehicle travel demand.     

Role of the Travel Factor Convenience in Rail Travel and a Framework for its Assessment

Abstract

This paper reviews the travel factor convenience with particular regard to rail travel. Past research has shown that convenience is a concept readily associated with the private car and its perceived ability to provide a door‐to‐door journey. Private vehicles such as cars are often key competitors to public transport. However, convenience with regard to public transport has proved to be somewhat of an ambiguous concept, often showing a high degree of overlap with the other main recognized travel factors. This paper shows that it is possible to consider convenience in rail travel as an embodiment of four themes: access/egress, station facilities/environment, frequency of service/scheduling and interchange between train services. A list of physically measurable elements can be produced relating to these four themes in order to assess the convenience of any particular station. A categorization process is proposed based upon the initial findings of a questionnaire designed to obtain a user perspective upon convenience. It is concluded that no definitive measure of convenience can be produced for rail travel, although a proxy measure, based upon categorization, containing some or all of the defined elements should be possible.     

A direct demand model for downtown work trips

This article documents the development of a direct travel demand model for bus and rail modes. In the model, the number of interzonal work trips is dependent on travel times and travel costs on each available mode, size and socioeconomic characteristics of the labor force, and the number of jobs. In estimating the models’ coefficients constraints are imposed to insure that the travel demand elasticities behave according to the economic theory of consumer behavior. The direct access time elasticities for both transit modes are estimated to be approximately minus two, and the direct linehaul time elasticities approximately minus one. The cross-elasticities with respect to the travel time components are estimated to be less than the corresponding direct elasticities. In general, the time cross-elasticities are such that rail trip characteristics but not car trip characteristics affect bus travel, and car trip characteristics but not bus trip characteristics affect rail travel. The cost elasticities lie between zero and one-half. Thus, the success of mass transit serving a strong downtown appears to depend on good access arrangements. This success can be confirmed with competitive linehaul speeds. The cost of travel appears to assume a minor role in choice of mode and tripmaking decisions. In the paper, a comparison is also made between the predictive performance of the models developed and that of a traditional transit model. The results indicate that the econometric models developed attain both lower percent error and lower variation of the error than the traditional model.     

Short-term planning and policy interventions to promote cycling in urban centers: Findings from a commute mode choice analysis in Barcelona,Spain

BackgroundCycling for transportation has become an increasingly important component of strategies to address public health, climate change, and air quality concerns in urban centers. Within this context, planners and policy makers would benefit from an improved understanding of available interventions and their relative effectiveness for cycling promotion. We examined predictors of bicycle commuting that are relevant to planning and policy intervention, particularly those amenable to short- and medium-term action.MethodsWe estimated a travel mode choice model using data from a survey of 765 commuters who live and work within the municipality of Barcelona. We considered how the decision to commute by bicycle was associated with cycling infrastructure, bike share availability, travel demand incentives, and other environmental attributes (e.g., public transport availability). Self-reported and objective (GIS-based) measures were compared. Point elasticities and marginal effects were calculated to assess the relative explanatory power of the independent variables considered.ResultsWhile both self-reported and objective measures of access to cycling infrastructure were associated with bicycle commuting, self-reported measures had stronger associations. Bicycle commuting had positive associations with access to bike share stations but inverse associations with access to public transport stops. Point elasticities suggested that bicycle commuting has a mild negative correlation with public transport availability (−0.136), bike share availability is more important at the work location (0.077) than at home (0.034), and bicycle lane presence has a relatively small association with bicycle commuting (0.039). Marginal effects suggested that provision of an employer-based incentive not to commute by private vehicle would be associated with an 11.3% decrease in the probability of commuting by bicycle, likely reflecting the typical emphasis of such incentives on public transport.ConclusionsThe results provide evidence of modal competition between cycling and public transport, through the presence of public transport stops and the provision of public transport-oriented travel demand incentives. Education and awareness campaigns that influence perceptions of cycling infrastructure availability, travel demand incentives that encourage cycling, and policies that integrate public transport and cycling may be promising and cost-effective strategies to promote cycling in the short to medium term.     

Modelling users’ behaviour in inter-urban carsharing program: A stated preference approach

In this paper, the effects of a inter-urban carsharing program on users’ mode choice behaviour were investigated and modelled through specification, calibration and validation of different modelling approaches founded on the behavioural paradigm of the random utility theory. To this end, switching models conditional on the usually chosen transport mode, unconditional switching models and holding models were investigated and compared. The aim was threefold: (i) to analyse the feasibility of a inter-urban carsharing program; (ii) to investigate the main determinants of the choice behaviour; (iii) to compare different approaches (switching vs. holding; conditional vs. unconditional); (iv) to investigate different modelling solutions within the random utility framework (homoscedastic, heteroscedastic and cross-correlated closed-form solutions). The set of models was calibrated on a stated preferences survey carried out on users commuting within the metropolitan area of Salerno, in particular with regard to the home-to-work trips from/to Salerno (the capital city of the Salerno province) to/from the three main municipalities belonging to the metropolitan area of Salerno. All of the involved municipalities significantly interact each other, the average trip length is about 30 km a day and all are served by public transport. The proposed carsharing program was a one-way service, working alongside public transport, with the possibility of sharing the same car among different users, with free parking slots and free access to the existent restricted traffic areas. Results indicated that the inter-urban carsharing service may be a substitute of the car transport mode, but also it could be a complementary alternative to the transit system in those time periods in which the service is not guaranteed or efficient. Estimation results highlighted that the conditional switching approach is the most effective one, whereas travel monetary cost, access time to carsharing parking slots, gender, age, trip frequency, car availability and the type of trip (home-based) were the most significant attributes. Elasticity results showed that access time to the parking slots predominantly influences choice probability for bus and carpool users; change in carsharing travel costs mainly affects carpool users; change in travel costs of the usually chosen transport mode mainly affects car and carpool users.     

Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segment-specific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings.     

Intercity rail services: A nested logit stated choice analysis of pricing options

There is a renewed interest in intercity and long-distance rail services in many countries, with both new high-speed rail services and improvements to conventional rail under review. The current study reports on an investigation using a stated choice experiment, of the demand for sleeper services between Sydney, Northern New South Wales (NSW) and Brisbane in Australia, a 12 to 14 hour trip, just after a decision by the NSW government to temporarily suspend sleeper services and introduce seating service only, pending an inquiry into the demand for such loss-making services under alternative price and service levels. A matrix of direct fare elasticities within the rail mode and between rail and competing modes are obtained for concession and non-concession travellers from a nested logit model. The empirical evidence extends our knowledge of the sensitivity of the long distance passenger market to a range of rails fares, distinguishing between classes of fares and levels of service.     

Quantifying individuals’ trade-offs between privacy,liberty and security: The case of rail travel in UK

Public transport systems have been targets in several terrorist attacks, notably in recent years, resulting in tight security measures worldwide. However, individuals’ privacy and liberty often conflict with efforts towards safety and security, making it difficult to assess the implications of security measures balanced against the costs (e.g., citizens may be stopped, searched and asked to provide personal identification data to authorities without any particular reason). Henceforth, our research question asks, “to what extent would people sacrifice their right to privacy and liberty in exchange for potentially safer and more secure travel?” This paper uses a stated choice experiment to quantify individuals’ trade-offs between privacy and security within a real-life context, namely rail travel in the UK. Using a nationwide sample, the empirical analysis yields the importance of improvements in the security infrastructure and identifies areas of concern with regard to privacy and liberty controlling for travel related factors. Further, trade-offs across different security measures for rail travel are quantified in terms of individuals’ willingness-to-pay extra on top of the average ticket price.     

The potential mitigation of CO2 emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel from a life cycle perspective – An Australian case study

The objective of this study is to provide a strategic evaluation of the mitigation of CO₂ emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the Sydney–Melbourne, Australia city-pair from a life cycle perspective. It has been demonstrated that when considering CO₂ emissions from vehicle operations, the modal shift from air to high-speed rail on this city-pair has the potential to provide a means of CO₂ mitigation. However, uncertainty exists with regard to the level of mitigation potential when considering the whole-of-life performance of the systems. Given the significant difference in the infrastructure requirements between the air mode and the high-speed rail mode, this study quantifies the life cycle CO₂ load attributable to each system and examines the effect on CO₂ mitigation potential. The study concluded that while the inclusion of the linehaul infrastructure did increase the CO₂ load associated with high-speed rail mode, it did not equate to or exceed the CO₂ load per trip as experienced by the air mode. The avoided annual life cycle CO₂ emission in the target year 2056 was 0.37 Mt representing an 18% reduction when compared to the air mode only on the city pair. In fact, the scenario comparison indicated that the substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the city pair resulted in CO₂ emissions avoidance throughout the longitudinal period.     

Modelling mode choice for freight transport using advanced choice experiments

In this paper we use advanced choice modelling techniques to analyse demand for freight transport in a context of modal choice. To this end, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted in order to estimate freight shipper preferences for the main attributes that define the service offered by the different transport modes. From a methodological point of view, we focus on two critical issues in the construction of efficient choice experiments. Firstly, in obtaining good quality prior information about the parameters; and secondly, in the improved quality of the experimental data by tailoring a specific efficient design for every respondent in the sample.With these data, different mixed logit models incorporating panel correlation effects and accounting for systematic and random taste heterogeneity are estimated. For the best model specification we obtain the willingness to pay for improving the level of service and the elasticity of the choice probabilities for the different attributes. Our model provide interesting results that can be used to analyse the potential diversion of traffic from road (the current option) to alternative modes, rail or maritime, as well as to help in the obtaining of the modal distribution of commercial traffic between Spain and the European Union, currently passing through the Pyrenees.     

The role of access and egress in passenger overall satisfaction with high speed rail

Passenger satisfaction is critical to ridership growth of high speed rail (HSR). Each HSR trip includes at least four segments: access to HSR stations, waiting, line-haul, and egress from HSR stations. Satisfaction with any segment influences the HSR passenger experience. Previous studies often focus on passenger satisfaction with the line-haul segment, but overlook the effects of all four segments on overall HSR satisfaction, especially access and egress. Using a path analysis on the data collected from the Shanghai-Nanjing HSR corridor in 2016, this study explores the influence of access and egress segments on overall HSR satisfaction and the correlates of satisfaction with HSR access and egress segments. We find that HSR line-haul satisfaction dominates overall HSR satisfaction; HSR access and egress satisfaction together have an equivalent effect. Travel time and route familiarity are important to both access and egress satisfaction. Mode choice affects satisfaction with HSR egress, with egress by car carrying the largest utility of egress satisfaction, followed by rail transit, taxi, and then bus. Thus, to improve HSR experience, traveler information service and the integration of HSR with urban transportation system are critical.

     

“I can do perfectly well without a car!”

This article presents the results of a study exploring travellers’ preferences for middle-distance travel using Q-methodology. Respondents rank-ordered 42 opinion statements regarding travel choice and motivations for travel in general and for car and public transport as alternative travel modes. By-person factor analysis revealed four distinct preference segments for middle-distance travel: (1) choice travellers with a preference for public transport, (2) deliberate-choice travellers, (3) choice travellers with car as dominant alternative, and (4) car-dependent travellers. These preference segments differ in terms of the levels of involvement and cognitive effort in travel decision making, the travel consideration-set and underlying motivations. The study showed that for most people there is more to travel than getting from point A to point B, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in middle-distance travel preferences. Policy implications for reducing the need for travel and promoting a modal shift from car to other travel modes are discussed.     

Crowding in public transport systems: Effects on users,operation and implications for the estimation of demand

The effects of high passenger density at bus stops, at rail stations, inside buses and trains are diverse. This paper examines the multiple dimensions of passenger crowding related to public transport demand, supply and operations, including effects on operating speed, waiting time, travel time reliability, passengers’ wellbeing, valuation of waiting and in-vehicle time savings, route and bus choice, and optimal levels of frequency, vehicle size and fare. Secondly, crowding externalities are estimated for rail and bus services in Sydney, in order to show the impact of crowding on the estimated value of in-vehicle time savings and demand prediction. Using Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Error Components (EC) models, we show that alternative assumptions concerning the threshold load factor that triggers a crowding externality effect do have an influence on the value of travel time (VTTS) for low occupancy levels (all passengers sitting); however, for high occupancy levels, alternative crowding models estimate similar VTTS. Importantly, if demand for a public transport service is estimated without explicit consideration of crowding as a source of disutility for passengers, demand will be overestimated if the service is designed to have a number of standees beyond a threshold, as analytically shown using a MNL choice model. More research is needed to explore if these findings hold with more complex choice models and in other contexts.     

Preference heterogeneity in mode choice based on a nationwide survey with a focus on urban rail

The provision of efficient and effective urban public transport and transport policy requires a deep understanding of the factors influencing urban travellers’ choice of travel mode. The majority of existing literature reports on the results from single cities. This study presents the results of a nationwide travel survey implemented to examine multiple modes of urban passenger transport across five mainland state capitals in Australia, with a focus of urban rail. The study aims to explore differences in mode choices among surveyed travellers sampled from the five cities by accounting for two types of factors: service quality and features of public transport, and socio demographic characteristics. A stated preference approach is adopted to elicit people’s valuation of specified mode-choice related factors and their willingness to pay. In particular, the availabilities of wireless and laptop stations – two factors rarely examined in the literature, were also considered in the SP survey. The survey data were analysed using mixed logit models. To test for preference heterogeneity, socio-demographic factors were interacted with random parameters, and their influences on marginal utilities simulated. The analysis reveals that intercity differences, user group status, gender, income, and trip purposes partially explain observed preference heterogeneity.     

A behavioural choice model for the evaluation of railway supply and pricing policies

This paper presents a choice model that can be used to simulate the impacts of variations in medium–long distance railway service characteristics (e.g. timetable, travel time, prices) on user choice of service type, run and class. The model, based on a nested-logit service/run/class/access–egress mode choice model, explicitly takes into account the desired departure (arrival) time and related early/late schedule delay penalties.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

Impact of public transport and non-motorized transport infrastructure on travel mode shares,energy, emissions and safety: Case of Indian cities

Current modal share in Indian cities is in favor of non-motorized transport (NMT) and public transport (PT), however historical trends shows decline in its use. Existing NMT and PT infrastructure in Indian cities is of poor quality resulting in increasing risk from road traffic crashes to these users. It is therefore likely that the current NMT and PT users will shift to personal motorized vehicles (PMV) as and when they can afford it. Share of NMT and PT users can be retained and possibly increased if safe and convenient facilities for them are created. This shall also have impact on reducing environment impacts of transport system.We have studied travel behavior of three medium size cities – Udaipur, Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam. Later the impact of improving built environment and infrastructure on travel mode shares, fuel consumption, emission levels and traffic safety in Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam are analyzed. For the purpose three scenarios are developed – improving only NMT infrastructure, improving only bus infrastructure and improving both NMT and bus infrastructure.The study shows the strong role of NMT infrastructure in both cities despite geographical dissimilarities. The scenario analysis shows maximum reduction in CO₂ emissions is achieved when both PT and NMT infrastructure are improved. Improvement in safety indicator is highest in this scenario. Improving only PT infrastructure may have marginal effect on overall reduction of CO₂ emissions and adverse effects on traffic safety. NMT infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the travel mode shares in favor of PT and NMT in future.     

The same mode again? An exploration of mode choice variability in Great Britain using the National Travel Survey

The main focus of travel behaviour research has been explaining differences in behaviour between individuals (interpersonal variability) with less emphasis given to the variability of behaviour within individuals (intrapersonal variability). The subject of this paper is the variability of transport modes used by individuals in their weekly travel. Our review shows that previous studies have not allowed the full use of different modes in weekly travel to be taken into account, have used categorical variables as simple indicators of modal variability and have only considered a limited set of explanatory indicators in seeking to explain modal variability. In our analysis we use National Travel Survey data for Great Britain. We analyse modal variability with continuous measures of modal variability (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, the difference in mode share between the primary and secondary mode, the total number of modes used). Taking inspiration from Hägerstrand (1970), we conceive that modal variability is determined by different types of spatial mobility constraints and find that reduced modal variability is predicted for having mobility difficulties, being aged over 60, being non-white, working full-time, living in smaller settlement, lower household income, having regular access to a car, having no public transport pass/season ticket and not owning a bicycle. The findings can support a change in perspective in transport policy from encouraging people to replace the use of one mode with another to encouraging people to make a change to their relative use of different transport modes.     

High speed rail market projection: Survey design and analysis

This paper summarises work done to assess the market potential and likely financial performance of a planned high-speed rail link connecting Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, under a variety of scenarios concerning the services offered and the possible market responses of the competing transport modes in the corridor. In the Australian context, such a link has the characteristics of an essentially new transport mode since existing rail services are extremely poorly developed. The expectation was that generated demand could be a substantial part of the overall ridership. A programme of market research was commissioned by the private consortium considering the project, designed to support forecasting models capable of predicting both diverted and generated travel on the new service. A major survey of current travellers was conducted in 1988, followed by an extensive collection of stated preference evidence about the factors affecting the travel decisions of both existing travellers and those who had not recently made any journeys in the corridor. The paper focuses mainly on the design and organisation of the surveys, on the analysis approach, and on the methods used to generate forecasts for simulated populations and scenarios.