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详细介绍了灰色模型的原理和特点,根据交通事故的发生特点,探讨了灰色模型在道路交通事故预测中的具体应用,并利用此模型对青岛市某地区的交通事故进行预测,建立了灰色预测模型,根据实际事故数据与预测值进行了比较,灰色预测模型的精度比较好. 相似文献
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针对现有预测地表沉降方法的不足,结合土压平衡式盾构一个掘进周期中不同阶段引起地表沉降的状况不同,提出了应用最近邻抽样回归模型(NNBR模型)对纵向地表沉降进行动态预测的方法。文章初步总结出土舱压力和平均掘进速度、注浆压力和平均掘进速度、监测时间可分别作为开挖面前方变形、盾尾空隙沉降、固结沉降三个阶段的主要预测因子,并列出了相应阶段的相似计算公式。利用该方法对某一工程实例的固结沉降阶段进行了预测,在样本数较少的情况下,预测结果最大相对误差只有14.04%,从而论证了基于NNBR模型的动态预测方法的准确性和可行性。 相似文献
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原油结蜡是影响管道安全、经济和高效运行的一个重要因素。为了对输油管道的结蜡状况进行预测,掌握输油管道结蜡的基本规律,应用灰色系统理论中的模型对输油管道结蜡速度和结蜡厚度等指标的实际统计数据进行了灰色动态拟合,建立了相应的灰色微分方程和时间响应函数。结果表明:残差小于2%,模型精度满足工程实际需要。 相似文献
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Carolina Osorio Gunnar Flötteröd 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2011,45(9):1410-1423
We present a dynamic network loading model that yields queue length distributions, accounts for spillbacks, and maintains a differentiable mapping from the dynamic demand on the dynamic queue lengths. The model also captures the spatial correlation of all queues adjacent to a node, and derives their joint distribution. The approach builds upon an existing stationary queueing network model that is based on finite capacity queueing theory. The original model is specified in terms of a set of differentiable equations, which in the new model are carried over to a set of equally smooth difference equations. The physical correctness of the new model is experimentally confirmed in several congestion regimes. A comparison with results predicted by the kinematic wave model (KWM) shows that the new model correctly represents the dynamic build-up, spillback and dissipation of queues. It goes beyond the KWM in that it captures queue lengths and spillbacks probabilistically, which allows for a richer analysis than the deterministic predictions of the KWM. The new model also generates a plausible fundamental diagram, which demonstrates that it captures well the stationary flow/density relationships in both congested and uncongested conditions. 相似文献
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This paper develops new methodological insights on Random Regret Minimization (RRM) models. It starts by showing that the classical RRM model is not scale-invariant, and that – as a result – the degree of regret minimization behavior imposed by the classical RRM model depends crucially on the sizes of the estimated taste parameters in combination with the distribution of attribute-values in the data. Motivated by this insight, this paper makes three methodological contributions: (1) it clarifies how the estimated taste parameters and the decision rule are related to one another; (2) it introduces the notion of “profundity of regret”, and presents a formal measure of this concept; and (3) it proposes two new family members of random regret minimization models: the μRRM model, and the Pure-RRM model. These new methodological insights are illustrated by re-analyzing 10 datasets which have been used to compare linear-additive RUM and classical RRM models in recently published papers. Our re-analyses reveal that the degree of regret minimizing behavior imposed by the classical RRM model is generally very limited. This insight explains the small differences in model fit that have previously been reported in the literature between the classical RRM model and the linear-additive RUM model. Furthermore, we find that on 4 out of 10 datasets the μRRM model improves model fit very substantially as compared to the RUM and the classical RRM model. 相似文献
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In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning. 相似文献
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A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Airport choice is an important air travel-related decision in multiple airport regions. This paper proposes the use of a probabilistic choice set multinomial logit (PCMNL) model for airport choice that generalizes the multinomial logit model used in all earlier airport choice studies. The paper discusses the properties of the PCMNL model, and applies it to examine airport choice of business travelers residing in the San Francisco Bay Area. Substantive policy implications of the results are discussed. Overall, the results indicate that it is important to analyze the choice (consideration) set formation of travelers. Failure to recognize consideration effects of air travelers can lead to biased model parameters, misleading evaluation of the effects of policy action, and a diminished data fit. 相似文献
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This paper studies a mean-standard deviation shortest path model, also called travel time budget (TTB) model. A route’s TTB is defined as this route’s mean travel time plus a travel time margin, which is the route travel time’s standard deviation multiplied with a factor. The TTB model violates the Bellman’s Principle of Optimality (BPO), making it difficult to solve it in any large stochastic and time-dependent network. Moreover, it is found that if path travel time distributions are skewed, the conventional TTB model cannot reflect travelers’ heterogeneous risk-taking behavior in route choice. This paper proposes to use the upper or lower semi-standard deviation to replace the standard deviation in the conventional TTB model (the new models are called derived TTB models), because these derived TTB models can well capture such heterogeneous risk-taking behavior when the path travel time distributions are skewed. More importantly, this paper shows that the optimal solutions of these two derived TTB models must be non-dominated paths under some specific stochastic dominance (SD) rules. These finding opens the door to solve these derived TTB models efficiently in large stochastic and time-dependent networks. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate these findings. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on understanding to what extent the components of LUTI models and their mutual interactions are conceptually represented by eight operational LUTI models. This is important for the understanding of LUTI models’ mechanisms, firstly because it may reduce communication barriers between planning communities, secondly because it may help us understand the models’ applicability, and thirdly it may highlight the models’ shortcomings and point for future research. We present a discussion about what subsystems should be considered for LUTI modelling, from which we derived an “a priori” conceptual ALUTI model (incorporating Activities, besides Land Use and Transport). By comparing the rationale behind each model with this conceptual model, we establish the basis for our review, focussing on whether these models incorporate the ALUTI components, its inner workings and the relationships between these components. Results indicate three main limitations of the reviewed models. First, models not always adequately include all the components of the a priori ALUTI model. Second, the ALUTI subsystems’ internal functions are not explicitly modelled in several of the models reviewed, making it difficult to evaluate how planning decisions affect the subsystem. Third, only few models recognise all mutual interactions, especially in respect to the Activity subsystem. 相似文献
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Miloš Nikolić 《运输规划与技术》2019,42(6):573-586
Dispatchers in many public transit companies face the daily problem of assigning available buses to bus routes under conditions of bus shortages. In addition to this, weather conditions, crew absenteeism, traffic accidents, traffic congestion and other factors lead to disturbances of the planned schedule. We propose the Bee Colony Optimization (BCO) algorithm for mitigation of bus schedule disturbances. The developed model takes care of interests of the transit operator and passengers. The model reassigns available buses to bus routes and, if it is allowed, the model simultaneously changes the transportation network topology (it shortens some of the planned bus routes) and reassigns available buses to a new set of bus routes. The model is tested on the network of Rivera (Uruguay). Results obtained show that the proposed algorithm can significantly mitigate disruptions. 相似文献
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O. Adebisi 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》1980,14(4):319-330
A theoretical model for estimating the expectation and variance of buses' running times under a flexibly-routed mode of service is proposed. The model is based on a probabilistic concept that adequately accommodates the usual randomness in the number and location of passengers served during successive vehicle trips. A few simplifications are embodied in the model but it can serve as a basis for a more refined model such as a computer simulation model that can be used in designing real bus systems.The physical setting assumed in the model is a rectangular grid road network where all houses face the side streets as in some suburban regions. Because it oversimplifies real-life situations, this assumption would need to be relaxed to make the model applicable to more general cases.Both the partially flexible-route service where some passengers are captive to fixed-route service and others are served at their doorsteps, and the fully flexible-route service where all passengers are served at their doorsteps, are studied. In each case, a very simple routing convention that can be conveniently executed by the bus drivers is assumed. The proposed travel time model confirms the intuitively correct phenomenon that when the concentration of passenger trip-ends is very high, the vehicle-route degenerates into a fixed-route in which the buses visit all possible loading points within the service area. 相似文献
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This paper derives several well-known spatial models in a framework based upon the laws of conditional probability analysis. In particular, it relates the structure of some existing models of trip distribution, elementary residential location and residential location with capacity constraints, to either the multinomial or hypergeometric probability distributions. The major changes from traditional methods for developing these models deal with the derivation and form of the objective function for each interaction model. This alternative analysis reaches a wider audience than that only familiar with entropy methods and leads to several improvements in generality. Further, when population constraints were imposed on residential location models, it was found that the model which developed naturally from the approach taken in the paper contained as a special case the model proposed by Dacey and Norcliffe and not the Wilson model. 相似文献
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This paper validates the prediction model embedded in a model predictive controller (MPC) of variable speed limits (VSLs). The MPC controller was designed based on an extended discrete first-order model with a triangular fundamental diagram. In our previous work, the extended discrete first-order model was designed to reproduce the capacity drop and the propagation of jam waves, and it was validated with reasonable accuracy without the presence of VSLs. As VSLs influence traffic dynamics, the dynamics including VSLs needs to be validated, before it can be applied as a prediction model in MPC. For conceptual illustrations, we use two synthetic examples to show how the model reproduces the key mechanisms of VSLs that are applied by existing VSL control approaches. Furthermore, the model is calibrated by use of real traffic data from Dutch freeway A12, where the field test of a speed limit control algorithm (SPECIALIST) was conducted. In the calibration, the original model is extended by using a quadrangular fundamental diagram which keeps the linear feature of the model and represents traffic states at the under-critical branch more accurately. The resulting model is validated using various traffic data sets. The accuracy of the model is compared with a second-order traffic flow model. The performance of two models is comparable: both models reproduce accurate results matching with real data. Flow errors of the calibration and validation are around 10%. The extended discrete first-order model-based MPC controller has been demonstrated to resolve freeway jam waves efficiently by synthetic cases. It has a higher computation speed comparing to the second-order model-based MPC. 相似文献