单船动态风险评估模糊推理系统的设计与模拟

对在航船舶进行动态的风险评估,分析影响船舶安全航行的风险因素,构建了船舶风险评估模型,定义了各项风险因素的隶属函数,并参考专家经验建立模糊推理规则.按照建立的模型,在MATLAB平台上运用模糊推理系统构建风险评估系统,并应用该系统对在航船舶进行定量风险评估.实例证明,该系统能够合理地评估在航船舶的整体风险水平,为驾驶员决策提供参考,具有应用潜力.     

船舶风险控制方案的层次分析-模糊综合评价

针对船舶事故综合风险评估过程中风险控制措施效果的评价影响因素繁多、评价主观性和不确定性较强的问题,以层次分析法建立风险评价指标体系,确定各制约因素的权重值,利用模糊集理论建立各指标因素的隶属度矩阵和模糊综合评价矩阵,在此基础上建立船舶风险控制方案效果的层次分析-模糊综合评价模型。以普通货船碰撞事故为例,建立船舶碰撞事故层级结构,通过专家调查问卷的形式统计分析专家意见,采用层次分析-模糊综合评价模型对普通货船碰撞事故风险控制方案进行评价,算例验证该评价模型在船舶综合风险评估过程中应用的可行性和合理性。     

船舶机舱火灾风险评估

为了对船舶机舱进行火灾风险评估，针对船舶机舱的特点建立了一套完整的综合评价指标体系。采用层次分析法对各个指标进行权重分析，并建立基于模糊识别模式的机舱火灾风险评价模型，把权广义距离之和最小的模糊识别模型用于综合评判中。以一条浮油回收船为例对该船的机舱进行火灾风险评估，结果表明，模糊综合风险评价方法是可行有效的，为船舶火灾风险评估打下了基础。     

基于层次分析的库区溢油风险模糊综合评估

在概述现有溢油风险评估方法的基础上,提出基于层次分析的模糊综合评估模型的潜在优势,详细介绍其构建方法,并以舟山岙山石油储运库区为例进行应用示范。建立适合的溢油风险评估指标体系,确立评估模型的因素集和评估集及各指标的隶属度和权重,利用层次分析法对所建指标体系进行逐级评估,得到模型综合评估结果。结果表明:在设定作业情景下,岙山库区综合溢油风险介于较小风险与中度风险之间。通过对各级指标风险值进行深入分析,进一步识别其中的重点潜在溢油风险隐患,并提出有针对性的溢油风险防范建议。模型的建立和应用能为岙山石油储运库区及其他存在多风险源的海域的溢油风险评估与防范提供科学指导和技术支持。     

基于AHP和模糊综合评价理论的压载水管理系统实船选配模型研究

本文针对船东面临的船舶压载水管理系统实船选配的难题,设计了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价理论的实船选配模型。该模型首先通过层次分析法建立评价指标体系,把专家对各项指标的主观评判进行数学量化,获取权重向量;通过定量和定性的方法对备选设备商的各个考核指标进行隶属度分析,最后通过模糊综合评价理论计算出最终的选配评价得分。经实际算例检验,该方法简单、实用、有效,可对船东前期的决策起到很好的辅助作用。     

基于中间产品纳期计划的造船供应商评估体系研究

基于中间产品纳期计划对造船供应商评估过程进行分析,从影响中间产品纳期计划的因素中分析与造船供应商的关系,并与造船供应商类型、层次相结合,构建造船供应商评估指标体系。利用层次分析法(AHP)对造船供应商进行预选择;利用模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)对预选择选出的造船供应商进行决策阶段选择评估提供了解决方案。     

港口危险货物常压储罐安全风险评估技术

为有效评估港口危险货物常压储罐运行的安全性,对港口储罐结构特点和储罐失效因素进行分析,从罐顶、罐壁、罐底和罐体基础等4方面建立风险评估指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定风险评估指标权重,建立储罐安全风险评估模型。将该模型应用于某港口企业汽油储罐的安全风险评估中,所得评估结论符合储罐现状实际,储罐安全风险评估模型的合理性得到验证。     

层次分析法在造船虚拟企业风险规划中的应用探讨

造船虚拟企业是虚拟企业在造船这一特定领域的具体体现,其运作的关键问题之一就是风险管理.为了有效地掌握造船虚拟企业的管理运行中所面临的风险程度,尽可能的规避风险或使现有风险所带来的损失降到最小,本文对造船虚拟企业风险进行了初步识别,建立了适用于造船虚拟企业风险规划的层次结构模型,运用层次分析法对其风险进行规划分析,根据结果对造船虚拟企业风险给出预控策略和建议,为进一步采取措施进行风险的防范提供依据.     

基于FAHP法的造船起重机结构安全性评价研究

针对目前国内外造船起重机安全性评价方法的不足,研究基于模糊层次综合评判法(FAHP)的造船起重机金属结构安全性评价方法,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,将模糊综合评判理论运用于起重机金属结构综合评估中。以造船门座起重机为例,建立多指标、多层次安全性评价模型,对指标状态值进行无量纲化处理,运用层次分析法确定权重值,采用模糊综合评判理论计算各层评价值,并最终得到整机金属结构安全指数,为起重机使用企业和特检部门开展工作提供参考依据。     

基于AIS数据的海区通航危险度决策模型

为增强海上交通运输安全,基于船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Indentification System,AIS)信息中能够提取分析的有关数据,建立基于AIS数据的海区通航安全评价指标体系。结合海区通航安全指标评价体系,运用系统模糊决策理论与应用中的多目标多层次模糊优选理论,建立高风险海区模糊优选模型,并利用相对优属度向量进行排序,从层次的最底层向高层逐层进行计算,选出若干海区中通航风险相对较高的海区。将模型计算结果分别与海区交通实况和模糊层次综合评判的评价结果相比较,对比结果基本趋于一致,验证该模型具有较强的科学性和实用性,能对不同海区的船舶通航危险度进行判别,为沿海水域船舶定线制规划设计、搜救站点布局和搜救力量的配置,也可为有关主管部门的海事安全管理等决策提供参考。     

Using system dynamics in maritime economics: an endogenous decision model for shipowners in the dry bulk sector

In this paper, we consider the benefits of applying system dynamics in maritime economics. We build an endogenous shipowners' model for the dry bulk sector, incorporating both the decision process of individual shipowners and traditional shipping market conditions. The aim is to arrive at a simulation tool that can be used for a variety of applications, both for teaching/learning and for research purposes. Within the endogenous shipping model, we can distinguish between the strategic and the tactical choices shipowners face. As an application, we focus explicitly on a strategic decision-making process that is relevant to any shipowner, i.e. the sale of a vessel. System dynamics seems to be a tool well-suited for the detailed modelling of strategic and operational behaviour in the maritime business.     

The choices of employing seafarers for the national shipowners in Taiwan: an empirical study

This paper focuses on the binary choice behavior of employing seafarers for the Taiwanese' national shipowners and embraces the empirical investigation based on the Binary Logit Model. First, three groups of important factors have been identified having a bearing on the national shipowners' hiring preferences: crew cost, competence and efficiency (including knowledge, skills, communication, physical and psychological attitude and conditions), as well as quality standard system complying with STCW95. Then, an empirical analysis, based on a Binary Logit Model about the national shipowners' choosing seafarers, is conducted to demonstrate the conceptual framework developed in this paper. The results show that the hiring decision is significantly affected by the crew cost. The national shipowners also consider several other factors when hiring officers and ratings. In addition, there are significant differences in hiring preference between the sailing international services and operating the liner ships. In the future, when the Measure shall be amended, the national shipowners will change their behavior to re-choose the foreign seafarers.     

船东在印尼港口装煤的风险与防范之道

近年来随着印尼煤炭出口量的大幅增长,越来越多的船东加入了印尼航线的煤炭运输队伍,但也愈加频繁地听闻船东在印尼港口装货时不愉快的遭遇,为此,笔者结合自身实践之心得,从合同谈判到执行的一系列过程来分析在印尼港口装煤可能存在的风险并提出相应的防范之道。     

The implications of piracy on marine insurance: some considerations for the shipowner

A prominent feature of modern day piracy is the ransom that is demanded for the safe release of the ship, cargo and crew. The recent upsurge of this type of piracy, in areas of the world that are of strategic importance to the shipping industry, has created many challenges for shipowners, underwriters and the law relating to marine insurance. The aim of this paper is to examine how the marine insurance market is being affected by the threat of modern day piracy, and seeks to identify the options that are available for the recovery of a ransom payment by the shipowner. Moreover, this study aims to identify the legal issues that might prevent a shipowner from recovering a ransom payment under an insurance policy or from the other interests in a common adventure. The study establishes that a reasonably made ransom payment by the shipowner will amount to an extraordinary expense that is taken to minimise or avert a loss. Such an act can generally be recovered under the insurance policy as a sue and labour expense or from other interests in the common adventure as a general average expense. However, illegality, unseaworthiness and exemption clauses in a marine policy are identified as being legal issues that may prevent a shipowner from recovering the ransom payment. Some of these problems may be overcome if clauses are carefully drafted to specifically cater for modern day piracy in a marine insurance policy. Several inconsistencies may also be resolved by transferring the piracy peril to war risks cover. The shipowner’s duty is to respond to the changing circumstances, by ensuring that his vessel is sufficiently equipped and the crew is properly trained to resist a hijacking.     

The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners' biases

Despite a strong linkage with the macro-economic course, the bulk shipping market, in the short period, follows a typical cyclic pattern, where continuous freight adjustments balance demand and supply movements.

In this context—widely unstable but quite regular in its general scheme—the shipowners may have enough competencies and information to take logical and consistent decisions about ship purchasing and chartering.

Yet, why do they periodically make mistakes?

The analysis of shipowners' behaviour provides a reasonable answer: mistakes incur when they ignore or undervalue the market trends, following their personal intuition or even unwisely imitating their competitors.

The analysis of the Handysize segment among the bulk shipping business offers a significant example of the lack of timeliness in shipowners' behaviour: after a long period of disregard, operators began to notice the opportunities of this market niche and they are now heavily investing in minor units. Maybe it's not too late, but the market has already changed and only a few brave—or lucky—shipowners took advantage of the magic moment.     

Safer ships, cleaner seas

P&I clubs, as shipowners' organizations providing liability insurance for the same shipowners have a particularly vital role to play in exerting peer group pressure and raising standards of safety. Solutions are, however, never as simple as one might wish; this article explores the tensions and constraints within which P&I clubs operate, analyses where they are best equipped to support the Donaldson initiative and points out that there is an inherent conflict between liberal modern society and the desire for discipline on the high seas.     

A portfolio approach to strategic chartering decisions

Modern management techniques are slowly but surely being introduced aslo in shipping management. Large sections of the industry practises strategic management at various levels in the firm. This paper outlines a method for deciding chartering strategies in the international bulk shipping industry. A well known risk/return model is tailored to transportation contracts in the shipping industry. The model delineates a set of optimally defined transportation contracts that may serve as a basis for the shipowner's strategic decisions. The strategies and elements of strategies suggested by the model have historically been practised by a number of successful shipowners. An important conclusion of the paper is that no second best problems exists and hence movement towarts the optimal solution is advocated even if such a solution cannot or will not be reached. Additionally, the paper provides an organized way of crafting, analysing and applying chartering strategies where the outcomes can be clearly defined and analysed based on well known statistical concepts and theories.     

) and annual payments (a) is a follows:

Modern management techniques are slowly but surely being introduced aslo in shipping management. Large sections of the industry practises strategic management at various levels in the firm. This paper outlines a method for deciding chartering strategies in the international bulk shipping industry. A well known risk/return model is tailored to transportation contracts in the shipping industry. The model delineates a set of optimally defined transportation contracts that may serve as a basis for the shipowner's strategic decisions. The strategies and elements of strategies suggested by the model have historically been practised by a number of successful shipowners. An important conclusion of the paper is that no second best problems exists and hence movement towarts the optimal solution is advocated even if such a solution cannot or will not be reached. Additionally, the paper provides an organized way of crafting, analysing and applying chartering strategies where the outcomes can be clearly defined and analysed based on well known statistical concepts and theories.     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

An analysis of efficiency of the bulk shipping markets

This article discusses the market efficiency of bulk shipping fleets in both the short and long term perspectives. In the short term it demonstrates that shipowners are profit maximizers and that freight rates are equal to marginal cost, that evidencing allocative efficiency of resources. It assumes that the market is differentiated but the intra-marginal substitution takes place. While it is shown that the marginal cost functions of individual vessels, which are aggregated to provide the market supply schedule, are only unique for a specific voyage, provided the general pattern of trade remains more or less constant the supply function is likely to be relatively insensitive to individual changes in ships' MCs. In the long term it is argued that the market is far less efficient with many factors combining to prevent accurate matching of supply and demand for any but for a very short period of time. In recent years supply has exceeded demand by a considerable amount and it is concluded that finance for ships should be provided primarily from shipowners' accumulated reserves and that loan capital should finance a much smaller proportion of the costs of independent tonnage.