New highways and land use change: Results from a quasi-experimental research design

Understanding links from new highway construction or capacity expansion to regional growth patterns is crucial for transportation planners and policy makers. In this paper, we incorporate a lagged adjustment regional growth model into a quasi-experimental research design to examine the association between new highway investments and land use change in three California counties. Our study areas provide a mix of urban, small town, and exurban highway projects in order to explore the different effects across project types and geographic contexts. The central finding of this research is that while improvements in surface transportation infrastructure can have large impacts on growth patterns, the nature of the effect depends on the context of the highway investment.     

Value of accessibility to Bogotá's bus rapid transit system

With several successful cases world‐wide, bus rapid transit (BRT) has reemerged as a cost‐effective transportation alternative for urban mobility. Despite the resurgence of BRT, there is a world‐wide paucity of research examining its ability to spur and development. By estimating spatial hedonic price functions, the paper determines the extent to which access to BRT stations in Bogotá, Colombia, currently are capitalized into land values. Results suggest that for every 5 min of additional walking time to a BRT station, the rental price of a property decreases by between 6.8 and 9.3%, after controlling for structural characteristics, neighbourhood attributes and proximity to the BRT corridor. Evaluated at the average walking time to a BRT station, this effect translates into an elasticity of between ??0.16 and ??0.22. Although these estimates cannot be attributable directly to the presence of the BRT system because a cross‐sectional design is used, they suggest that the land market in Bogotá values access to BRT station locations.     

城市轨道交通企业多元化发展对比研究

城市轨道交通投资周期长、成本高、收益见效慢,许多轨道交通企业负债累累,但随着城市轨道交通在我国的高速发展,越来越多的轨道交通企业开启多元化经营进而实现多元化发展。本文列举了四个我国典型大都市的轨道交通多元化发展情况,结合政府颁布的土地政策,可以看出轨道交通多元化发展的重要性,以及政府将土地交由轨道交通企业自行开发、使用,政府在其中主要充当监管者的角色。这样有助于实现其多元化经营,进而带动多元化发展与城市可持续发展。     

Transit trip distribution model considering land use differences between catchment areas

Sustainable land use planning and advanced public transport system are believed to be effective solutions to traffic congestion. To this end, it is important to reveal the relationship between transit ridership and land use. However, current Direct Ridership Models only focus on the relationship between single station's boarding volume and the corresponding catchment area land use. This paper analyzed the ridership distribution between transit stations by considering the land use difference between catchment areas. Land use difference was calculated from point of interest (POI) data extracted from an electronic map of Beijing; transit trip distribution volume was obtained from ‘automatic fare collection’ facility. After data specification, a transit ridership distribution model was proposed and calibrated. The calibration results suggest that land use difference has a directly proportional correlation with transit ridership distribution. The research findings build a bridge between detailed urban form and public transport, which is of significance for the further research of sustainable urban planning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suburban congestion: Recommendations for transportation and land use responses

Transportation congestion is reaching intolerable levels in many urban and suburban areas in the US. Reliance upon traditional responses, such as transit and new highway capacity, is not working — especially in suburban areas. Although methods for dealing with suburban congestion are often different, there are a number of common features that must be considered in developing short term as well as more permanent and long lasting solutions. In proposing short term solutions, a Menu of Actions is described. It includes transportation actions (the traditional transit and transportation management options) where there are opportunities for getting more out of the existing systems; land use/growth management actions which will result in more rational land use-transportation interactions; financial incentives, to encourage or discourage appropriate actions; more comprehensive and systematic land use and transportation planning; and the organizational and institutional actions required to implement rational solutions.While the Manu of Actions provides a broad array of possible actions to provide relief in the short run, over time the growth in traffic is likely to outpace their effectiveness. Consequently, longer term and often more difficult solutions must be considered and implemented as appropriate. They could include changes in land use development and land use management policies; changes in lifestyle and business practices; improvements through technological innovation; changes in the traditional ways of providing transportation services; and greatly expanded research and development.     

Linking land use and transportation in a rapidly urbanizing context: A study in Delhi,India

Cities in developing countries like India are facing some of the same concerns that North American cities are: congestion and urban growth. However, there is a sense of urgency in cities like Delhi, India in that this growth is far more rapid as both urbanization and motorization are ongoing processes that have not yet peaked. In this paper, we examine land use change and its relationship with transportation infrastructure and other planning related variables in a spatial context. We estimate land use change models at two different scales from separate data. Cellular automation and Markov models were used to understand change at the regional scale and discrete choice models to predict change at the local level. The results suggest that land use in the Delhi metropolitan area is rapidly intensifying while losing variety. These changes are affected by industrial, commercial and infrastructure location and planners and policy-makers need to better understand the implications of location decisions. We also examine these results in the context of a policy framework for data-based planning that links land use and transportation models for Delhi.     

A comparison of the sustainability of public and private transportation systems: Study of the Greater Toronto Area

A macroscopic assessment of the impacts of private and public transportation systems on the sustainability of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is undertaken from economic, environmental and social perspectives. The methodology draws upon the urban metabolism and sustainability indicators approaches to assessing urban sustainability, but compares modes in terms of passenger-kms. In assessing the economic sustainability of a city, transportation should be recognized as a product, a driver and a cost. In 1993, the traded costs of automobile use in the GTA were approximately balanced by the value of the automobile parts and assembly industry. But local transit costs 1/3 to 1/6 of the auto costs per person-km, in traded dollars, mainly because local labour is the primary cost.Public transportation is more sustainable from an environmental perspective. Automobile emissions are a major contributor to air pollution, which is a serious contemporary environmental health problem in Toronto. Public transportation modes are less energy intensive (including indirect energy consumption) and produce CO₂ at an order of magnitude lower, although these benefits are partially undermined by under-utilization of transit capacity and the source of electricity generation.The social benefits of automobile use are likely more significant than costs in determining GTA residents' preferential mode choice. The speed and access of auto use provide important economic benefits, e.g. relating to employment and product choice. Nevertheless, offsetting the service attributes of private transportation are large social costs in terms of accidents. The costs of automobile insurance provide one tangible measure of such negative impacts.In order to improve the sustainability of the GTA, innovative approaches are required for improving the performance level of public transportation or substantially reducing the need for the service level provided by automobiles. Efforts such as greater integration of bicycles with public transit, or construction of light-rail systems in wide roadways, might be considered. But to be sustainable overall, a transportation system has to be flexible and adaptable and so must combine a mixture of modes.     

Heuristic policy analysis of regional land use,transit, and travel pricing scenarios using two urban models

To address some of the uncertainties inherent in large-scale models, two very different urban models, an advanced travel demand model and an integrated land use and transportation model, are applied to evaluate land use, transit, and auto pricing policies in the Sacramento, CA (US), region. The empirical and modeling literature is reviewed to identify effective land use, transit, and pricing policies and optimal combinations of those policies and to provide a comparative context for the results of the simulation. The study illustrates several advantages of this approach for addressing uncertainty in large-scale models. First, as Alonso [Predicting the best with imperfect data, AIP Journal (1968)] asserts, the intersection of two uncertain models produces more robust results than one grand model. Second, the process of operationalizing policy sets exemplifies the theoretical and structural differences in the models. Third, a comparison of the results from multiple models illustrates the implications of the respective models' strengths and weaknesses and may provide some insights into heuristic policy strategies. Some of the key findings in this study are (1) land use and transit policies may reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and emissions by about 5–7%, and the addition of modest auto pricing policies may increase the reduction by about 4–6% compared to a future Base Case scenario for a 20-year time horizon; (2) development taxes and land subsidy policies may not be sufficient to generate effective transit-oriented land uses without strict growth controls elsewhere in the region; and (3) parking pricing should not be imposed in areas served by light rail lines and in areas in which increased densities are promoted with land subsidy policies.     

A land use and transportation integration method for land use allocation and transportation strategies in China

In this paper, we will first review literature of the land use and transportation interaction and then develop a new land use allocation methodology called Three Stages-Two-Feedback Method (Integration Method) for both land use allocation and the transportation policy options with a practical implementation. Then we apply this method in an urban general planning project in China with more than 1.2 million populations. In this project, we evaluated three land use allocation strategies and three transportation policy options using two application tools (with and without feedbacks) using this method implemented in a land use planning system UPlan and a transportation planning system Emme. The results show that the use of the feedback method (Application Two) results in a vehicle distance reduction and the increase in the service coverage area of transit bus stops at the same time. Due to the use of transportation accessibility and the congestion measures with a MSA implementation, the accessibility measure shows a convergent process over iterations. This nice feature can be used for alternative comparisons. Future research subjects are also discussed.     

城市绿色交通建设与发展策略综述

绿色交通系统对改善城市交通拥堵,减少交通能耗、环境污染,提高城市的宜居性等方面有着积极的推动作用。文章从城市规划和土地利用开发、交通需求管理、交通基础设施建设等方面阐述了城市绿色交通的建设与发展策略,为发展、建设城市绿色交通提供思路。     

Appraising large-scale investments in a metropolitan transportation system

A package of large-scale investments in the transportation infrastructure in the Stockholm metropolitan region is currently being proposed. It contains new investments in the railway and subway systems as well as new links in the road system. This paper deals with the issue of appraising this kind of investment program. One major problem is the lack of a unique standard method, and it is argued that several tools should be used in a practical evaluation of large-scale investments in the transportation system.Four different approaches are presented and related to each other. First, one study uses a network-based mode-split/assignment model with a fixed trip matrix. The second study is complementary, as its aim is to also trace the impacts on the spatial distribution of population and jobs by applying an integrated transportation and land use model. Third, the long-run effects of the investments on regional economic growth are discussed within the framework of regional production functions. Fourth, an alternative approach is used, in which benefits from the investments are assessed through their estimated influence on aggregate land values.Abbreviations RA Reference Alternative - IP Investment Proposal - IMREL Integrated Model of Residential and Employment Location - RPFM Regional Production Function Model An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 31th European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Lisbon, August 1991.     

Indirect Effects to Include in Strategic Environmental Assessments of Transport Infrastructure Investments

Abstract

Indirect effects are important considerations when making consequence analyses in general and in strategic environmental assessments in particular of potential transport solutions and infrastructure plans. The primary objective of this paper is to emphasize the need for a deeper understanding of the long‐term system effects of investments in transport infrastructure with a focus on the structuring effects that roads and railways have on society, e.g. altered transport patterns, altered settlement structures and changes in use of the built environment. Special attention is given to the following potential indirect effects: increased total transport volume, increased share of private motorists and truck transport, increased urban sprawl, and increased energy use in buildings. The conditions that determine the power of the effects are discussed and a number of key factors to be considered in transport infrastructure planning, especially in strategic environmental assessments, are suggested. Since many indirect effects emerge over time, an extended time perspective is of essence. Therefore, scenario techniques may be useful when analysing indirect effects in transport planning processes.     

Mobility evaluation for urban public transportation

Summary

This paper has reported on a study of relative opportunity—not absolute opportunity. Minimum absolute standards for mobility or accessibility are difficult to justify. Some additional study into the development and application of absolute mobility standards may be warranted.

The application of the mobility evaluation model has primarily focused upon a corridor line‐haul system. Conclusions suggest that such a system will not markedly improve existing transit mobility levels in either the peak hour or the off‐peak. The experimental work has verified this conclusion, and more importantly, it has detailed quantitatively the exact levels and spatial distribution of mobility improvements. However, this study does not include a comprehensive analysis of all methods of mobility enhancement, nor does it undertake a comparison of alternative means of mobility improvement. Certainly other methods to improve access to opportunities should be explored before policy considerations are finalized. These methods include other transit solutions, land use alternatives, socio‐economic policies, and other‐mode transportation alternatives. The accessibility technique and mobility indices approach appears to have general applicability in the analysis of optimal strategies for system evaluation.

Of interest is an examination of alternative feeder transit systems to the corridor line. Additional research with the model might point out the maximum mobility effects expected through improved collector service in the suburbs, with corridor line‐haul to the CBD.

The indices are also readily available for a comparison of mobility patterns for different urban areas. Application of the program to transit and socio‐economic data for a set of cities would yield an indication of the relative mobility levels provided. Such data might be considered as an evaluation criterion for future transit funding by federal officials.

In addition, the model is currently being considered by UMTA as a tool to aid in the evaluation of the equitable distribution of transit system benefits as defined in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.²⁵ The mobility output would serve as an indicator of the levels‐of‐service provided to certain disadvantaged urban groups. For this application the computer model is being altered to achieve compatability with the Transportation Planning System (UTPS) computer model package developed by UMTA.     

An integrated assessment of factors affecting modal choice: towards a better understanding of the causal effects of built environment

This paper discusses the methodological challenges in understanding causal relationships between urban form and travel behavior and uses a holistic quasi-experimental approach to investigate the separable marginal influence of each of several urban form factors on mode choice as well as the complex relationships between those factors and a wide range of personal traits. Data analysis and models are used to reveal the effect of such interactions on mode choice for both work and non-work trips in Rome, Italy. It is found that population density does not have a significant marginal positive effect on sustainable mode choice for work trips. Conversely, this factor decreases sustainable mode choice for non-work trips. Small scale street design quality alone increases sustainable mode choice for non-work trips. This is while presence of street network integration alone increases automobile use for all trip purposes. The results point to the importance of incorporating all the urban form factors of diversity, design and street network integration if the goal is to increase the use of more sustainable modes of transportation for both work and non-work trips, but also show that attitudes and preferences can modify the response to urban design factors. The findings suggest that thoughtful policies triggering certain attitudes (cost sensitivity, sensitivity to peer pressure regarding the value attributed to sustainable transportation, and transit preference) can be adopted to significantly increase sustainable mode choice even in the neighborhoods with specific physical restrictions.     

Opportunities for collaboration between infrastructure agencies and conservation groups: Road-stream crossings in Oklahoma

Rivers and streams worldwide are highly fragmented by dams and road crossings, and there is a pressing need to retrofit the most problematic structures to ensure aquatic organism passage. At the same time, a majority of the transportation infrastructure within developed nations is beyond its projected lifespan and significant investments will be needed to ensure that this transportation infrastructure remains safe and functional. Historically, these two problems have been addressed separately. Here, we use a rapid survey methodology to identify road-stream crossings that are likely high-priority projects for both conservation and infrastructure agencies. We conducted a field assessment of more than 700 road-stream crossings across Oklahoma to determine if they blocked fish movements and to determine their physical condition. We then developed an index of ecological impact, and an index of infrastructure condition, based on physical variables measured at each crossing. This survey revealed a subset of crossings that are both fragmenting the river network and in poor physical condition. These crossings are high-priority locations where culvert replacement may have both high ecosystem benefit and would eliminate a piece of transportation infrastructure with a high risk of failure. We discuss opportunities for cost-sharing between conservation and transportation agencies.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

A volatile relationship: The effect of changing gasoline prices on public support for mass transit

The determinants of public opinion toward public transit is a little-researched topic, though a better understanding of what makes consumers willing to support transit may reveal which attributes of transit consumers value most. One determinant of people’s willingness to support investments in mass transit may be the price of fuel for transit’s principal competition, the private automobile. In this paper, I examine the relationship between the cost of gasoline and stated willingness to invest public money in mass transit improvements. I hypothesize that fuel price volatility—in addition to price itself—is a determinant of support for more mass transit funding, controlling for other factors. As the price of gasoline becomes more uncertain, the public should, all else equal, support investment in mass transportation, a form of transportation that may provide some measure of protection from the price of fuel. Results suggest a strong effect of price volatility on consumers’ willingness to support transit expenditures.     

Examining determinants of rail ridership: a case study of the Orlando SunRail system

The current study contributes to the literature on transit ridership by considering daily boarding and alighting data from a recently launched commuter rail system in Orlando, Florida – SunRail. The analysis is conducted based on daily boarding and alighting data for 10 months for the year 2015. With the availability of repeated observations for every station, the potential impact of common unobserved factors affecting ridership variables are considered. The current study develops an estimation framework, for boarding and alighting separately, that accounts for these unobserved effects at multiple levels – station, station-week and station-day. In addition, the study examines the impact of various observed exogenous factors such as station level, transportation infrastructure, transit infrastructure, land use, built environment, sociodemographic and weather variables on ridership. The model system developed will allow us to predict ridership for existing stations in the future as well as potential ridership for future expansion sites.     

Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget

As urban areas face increasing demands for new transport infrastructure to promote a sustainable future with an increasing reality of constrained government budgets, the debate on whether we should focus on rail or bus-based investments continues unabated in many jurisdictions. Associated with the debate is an emotional (or ideological) bias by communities in favour of one mode, especially rail, which carries much sway at the political level as if there is no budget constraint. This paper presents a stated choice experiment to investigate this context as two unlabelled options described by 20 potential drivers of community preferences for improved public transport, where each choice scenario is conditioned on an estimated construction cost and a total annual transport infrastructure budget for the relevant geographical jurisdiction. This is followed by a labelling of each alternative to reveal whether the option is bus rapid transit (BRT) or light rail (LRT) and to establish whether this additional information influences preference revision. Data is collected in all eight capital cities of Australia in mid 2014. Mixed logit models with heteroscedastic conditioning in terms of the cost of the project infrastructure and whether the alternative is labelled BRT or LRT, provide new evidence on the nature and extent of community modal bias in a budget-constrained choice setting. The conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, if a fully compensatory choice rule is assumed (as is common in all previous modal comparison studies), LRT is predominantly preferred over BRT despite budgetary constraints, similarities in quality of service attributes and the opportunity to choose a greater network coverage for a given construction cost. However, when we allow for attribute non-attendance (a semi-compensatory choice rule), the modal bias is no longer a significant driver of preferences.     

Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.