Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport: The Sixth International Conference,Cape Town,South Africa,September 1999 - Part 2

This paper presents an overview of some recent developments in and policy issues relating to integrated transport systems in the European Union (EU). Both goods and passenger transport systems are considered in the context of actions recently undertaken and supported by the EU. The paper considers the very general background of these systems at the EU scale and offers insights into some recent successful and promising policy, real-life, and research attainments. In addition, it attempts to identify some directions for future actions in fields such as transport policy, transport technology, transport economics and transport scenarios.     

Structure and dynamics of non-suburban passenger travel demand in Indian railways

In this paper we derive long run structural relationships for all the three classes, viz. upper, second and ordinary second class, of non-suburban long distance passenger transport demand for Indian railways using annual time series data for 1970–1995. We employ some of the recent developments in multivariate dynamic econometric time series modeling including estimation of long-run structural cointegrating relationships, short-run dynamics and measurement of the effects of shocks and their persistence on evolution of the dynamic passenger transport demand system. The models are estimated using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework, which allows for endogeneity of regressors. The demand systems are found to be stable for all the classes in the long run and they converge to equilibrium in a period of around 2–4 years after a typical system-wide shock. Any disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected in the long-run with adjustments in passenger transport demand and the price variable, i.e. real rate charged per passenger kilometer. Results show that travel demand in all classes would rise with income, although the rise is less than proportionate in the case of ordinary class. High price elasticity in long-run and short-run impulse responses indicate that passenger fare hike could lead to substantial decline in travel demand leading to decline in revenue earnings of the railways. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Inland waterways—their role and significance in European transport

Summary

1) Western Europe has a navigable waterways‐network of about 19,000 kms. For the coming decades, however, about 40 percent of the length of these waterways has a very limited relevance, because of the small capacity of the barges that can pass along them.

2) Of the different types of barges the majority are the self‐propelled type. The importance of the pull‐towed barges is declining quickly, whereas the push‐towed barges are on the upswing.

3) The relative importance of inland shipping in comparison with rail transport is far from uniform. In The Netherlands inland shipping is dominant. On the other hand, in France, this mode of transport has only 30 percent of the total number of tons transported by inland shipping and railways together.

4) May the relative importance defer, there is a strong resemblance between the types of goods that are transported via the waterways with crude and manufactured minerals as well as building materials ranking high. In general, inland shipping is primarily involved in the transport of basic products and is of vital importance to the functioning of the West‐European economy.

5) The rather complicated legal regime of the waterways in Western Europe is certainly not the only reason why the integration in the transportation sector of the European Communities hardly moves on.

A fundamental discussion about the basic conceptions of the transport policy in the Common Market is unavoidable before real progress can be made. The entrance of the United Kingdom into the European Community may give an opening on this point.

6) Life goes on, with or without transport‐integration. Inland shipping moves forward too, paying for the use of infrastructure or not.

The general trends in transport support the expectation that the relative importance of inland shipping will increase in the coming decades. The increase in size of shipments and transport distances works in favour of this mode of transport. Besides this, inland shipping still has many possibilities to improve its productivity.

7) The future of inland shipping will be found in bulk transport and the transport of general cargo that has a volume per destination that goes far beyond the quantities for which the container or comparable types of transport units are better suited.     

High-Speed Rail Operations on an Existing Network: An Assessment Model for China

High-speed rail operations have the potential to reduce the long-term decline in rail passenger travel demand for the medium to long distance inter-urban markets. Such decline has been evident through most of the industrialized countries where air and road transport tend to be the dominant modes. In China, the operations of long distance high-speed rail on fully dedicated track is not very easy to implement, due to the high proportion of passengers who travel between high-speed and conventional railways. An alternative approach would be to allow for mixed operations with trains of various speeds on the same track. This article puts forward a simulation model designed to allow an evaluation of the most efficient distance for high-speed rail operations under mixed train speed scenarios. The model takes into account the main operating parameters such as passenger volumes, train speeds, capital and maintenance costs, train operating costs and energy consumption. The distance of high-speed train running on conventional rail that will yield the most economic benefit can be estimated using the model. The article includes the results of using the model for a specific example. It is concluded that large-scale high-speed trains have the potential to be successfully operated on conventional rail networks.     

National policy towards cars: Hong Kong

The Hong Kong transport policy objective is simply, mobility. With this the automobile must conform. A confined land area, difficult to develop, has absorbed excessive immigration and must now service a dynamic entrepreneurial economy.

Transport infrastructure based on major planning studies is created through government capital and is backed by careful legislation, effective administration and private sector participation. The problem is that overall expansion is even faster: widespread urban renewal—roads cannot equally expand; enormous New Territories New Towns—people still want to move in and out so the need for more transport accelerates. Over ten million trips daily are made by 5.5 million people. The answers cannot be more and more private cars: it must be promoting the most effective use of major transport investments, where possible off roads, and the mass carriers on roads. The need to curb congestion by containing escalating car numbers (especially as so far only 17% of households have access to an automobile) led in May 1982 to imposition of severe taxes on ownership. The ultimate and equitable objective is to control usage. Road pricing may be the answer.

In Hong Kong the private cars is part only of a complex strategy including metro, rail, bus, minibus, ferry, taxi and tram. The car cannot take precedence.     

Some thoughts on competitive tendering in local bus operations

Abstract

This article is derived from a report by Metra Consulting Group for the Dutch Ministry of Public Health and the Environment. The aim of Metra's study was to identify ways of reducing the environmental nuisance of urban traffic without adding excessively to transport costs.

The main theme of the article is that the traditional idea of an inherent conflict between transport efficiency and the environment is mistaken. Both efficiency and the environment are threatened by the same thing: the excessive and indiscriminate use of vehicles. This comes about because of defects in the fiscal and regulatory framework within which people take transport decisions. Suitable reforms in this framework would simultaneously enhance the environment and improve access for all classes of road user.

In the development of this theme, particular attention is paid to transport activities which tend to be neglected by policy makers, such as walking, cycling and urban goods distribution; and to measures which are not always thought of as instruments of policy at all, such as locational policy and development control, vehicle design, and vehicle taxation, especially of goods vehicles.     

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes.

In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.

     

Safety outcomes of internationalization of domestic road haulage: a review of the literature

Abstract

The European Union (EU) promotes gradual lifting of restrictions on foreign hauliers involved in domestic road transport of goods (cabotage), and a major deregulation was scheduled in 2014. Due to complaints from several member states facing competition from new EU-countries with lower labour costs, this process was postponed until 2015. An important aspect related to such a deregulatory reform includes potential consequences for transport safety and accident risk factors. The main aims of the current paper are therefore to examine the potential transport safety outcomes of increasing internationalization of domestic road haulage, and to examine potential accident risk factors of foreign hauliers. This is done by reviewing the research literature. This paper shows that the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) accident risk varies with a factor of up to 10 in European countries, and that the accident risk of foreign HGVs is approximately two times higher than that of domestic HGVs in the studied European countries. The paper points to several risk factors and concludes that better data on accident risk and risk factors must be gathered in order to enable European authorities to correctly analyse and respond to this important traffic safety challenge.     

The design of environmentally aware travel diaries

Any policy addressing the concerns and trends associated with the impact of travel on the environment should be based on a solid understanding of the activities giving rise to them. While the measurement of the total environment loads by air or noise measurement stations is essential, it needs to be matched by the observation of the human behaviours creating them. This is especially true in the transport sector, which has been rightly or wrongly identified as having the potential to make a substantial contribution to the reduction of air and noise pollution. While the contribution of freight transport is of growing concern and importance, this paper focuses on the measurement of passenger transport throughout.

In the past transport planners have largely relied on the travel diary as their prime instrument to measure traveller behaviour. The travel diary is a survey instrument designed to record all movements during the course of one or more days including their relevant details. It is complemented by spearate household and personal forms for recording general information. In the following paper the term travel diary implies all three elements (the diary, the person form and the household form).

The remainder of the paper discusses to what extent and how the travel diary can be used to capture data for the assessment of policies directed at reducing the impact of transport on the social and natural environment. The requirements of a travel diary and the potential uses of new technologies in realising such a travel diary are then presented. A brief outlook on the possibilities of reasling such a diary concludes the paper.     

Vehicle restrictions and CO2 emissions in Beijing – A simple projection using available data

The Beijing Government launched a new policy on restricting vehicle ownership in late 2010 to regulate the faster motorization and the excessive vehicular carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In this paper, we first analyzed this policy and its effect on private passenger vehicle population. The private passenger vehicle population in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 was predicted under three different scenarios: no constraint (NC), current constraint (CC) and tighter constraint (TC). Then the assessment of vehicular emissions reduction benefits was made on the basis of private passenger vehicle population, vehicle kilometers traveled and CO₂ emission factors. It was projected that the CO₂ emissions in 2020 will reach 23.90, 15.55 and 13.23 million tons under NC, CC and TC respectively. The policy is very effective in controlling the faster motorization and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Transport Demand Management in Turkey: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

Abstract

This article proposes new models for estimating transport demand using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. Based on population, gross national product and number of vehicles, four forms of the genetic algorithm transport planning (GATP) model are developed – one exponential and the others taking quadratic forms – and applied to Turkey. The best fit models in terms of minimum total average relative errors in the test period are selected for future estimation. Demand management strategies are proposed based on three scenarios: restricting private car use, restricting truck use and the simultaneous management of private car use and goods movement. Results show that the GATP model may be used to estimate transport demand in terms of passenger-kilometers traveled (pass-km), vehicle-kilometers traveled (veh-km) and ton-kilometers completed (ton-km). Results also show that the third scenario – simultaneous restrictions on private car use and goods movement – could reduce total veh-km by about 35% by 2025 in this study of Turkish rural roads.     

Restructuring land transport in New Zealand

Restructuring of governmental activities in New Zealand calls for public enterprises to operate in competitive environments. This has created problems for highways and urban passenger transport. Whereas the national airline has been privatized and railways corporatized, legislation for land transport has created a Crown agency that is expected to operate commercially within funding and policy constraints. The problems are assessed as Transit New Zealand attempts to allocate state funds between competing projects using commercial criteria. New roles have been legislated for regional agencies and local governments: they are expected to either privatize service delivery or create public corporations to maintain highways and operate passenger transport. Principles underlying restructuring are examined, and suggestions are made on how agencies might take advantage of opportunities.     

Transport bottlenecks and Tanzania's economic problems

Abstract

The paper discusses Tanzania's transport problems in the context of the prevailing acute economic crisis. It looks at the development of the transport system, especially the rail and road network, from the German days to the new Chinese‐built Tanzania‐Zambia Railway. The East‐West orientation of the major parallel rail lines and roads reflects the dependency of the economy on export‐import trade. A major challenge to the transport system is the haulage of agricultural products, mainly for export but also for the internal market, not to mention the haulage of imported commodities.

The provision and utilization of transport services is discussed in the context of the historical, and institutional setting of the road haulage industry, particularly its public and private sector configurations. Due to scarcity of foreign exchange, both sectors, especially the private, are starved of vehicles and spare parts.

The operation of ocean and lake shipping services and Air Tanzania are discussed. It is recommended that the latter should concentrate on essential domestic services plus some limited regional services. External financing of transport projects and its implications are also considered.

It is concluded that despite the break‐up of the East African transport system, the Tanzanian transport system, although shaky, has avoided major breakdowns and in some cases, especially in trade, has provided the foundation for at least medium‐term improvements. More attention is recommended to organizational problems of track use by freight and passenger carriers and to making the best use of existing facilities.     

Matatu: A Case Study of the Core Segment of the Public Transport Market of Kampala,Uganda

Abstract

In Uganda, public transport is provided by a four‐tiered public transport system, with the Matatu (usually Toyota cabin‐transporters of 1990s make) as its backbone, providing the widest, densest and cheapest connectivity. The article shares findings of a survey on perceptions, profiles and aspirations of drivers/conductors/stage personnel and of passengers. They show that entering a career within the Matatu business opens choices and promises inclusion into a relatively strong social network. For passengers, the Matatu offers a cost‐effective opportunity to commute to places of work, transport goods and connect with business partners. The findings also point to limitations of the current public transport system, with emphasis on lacking client care, e.g. fare cheating by conductors. There is a need to better understand the dynamics of urban transport systems against the background of expanding urbanization in low‐income countries. This article has attempted to contribute to that need.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain — (A) the proposals

Abstract

Over the past five years there has been an unprecedented stream of transport legislation in Britain, and policy has switched significantly towards the provision of services commensurate with market demand. The most important single document has been the recent publication of the White Paper on ‘Buses’ which could bring about dramatic changes in the road passenger transport industry. This introductory section outlines the arguments for and against change and then summarizes the proposals.     

A system dynamics model of CO2 mitigation in China’s inter-city passenger transport

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from transportation has become increasingly important and challenging especially for developing countries. This paper takes the inter-city passenger transport in China as a case, and develops a system dynamics model for policy assessment and CO₂ mitigation potential analysis. It is found that the future demand for China’s inter-city passenger transport is expected to be large, with the turnover volume growing at a rate of 9% per annum and amounting to 6600 billion p-km in 2020. Major emissions reduction potential exists in inter-city passenger transport. In 2020, comparing to the case without any specific policies stressing mitigation, the reduction of CO₂ emissions ranges from 26% to 32% under those scenarios with policy controls. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the CO₂ mitigation will be best achieved by accelerating the development of railway network, together with slowing down the extension of highway network and imposing fuel taxes.     

Indirect Effects to Include in Strategic Environmental Assessments of Transport Infrastructure Investments

Abstract

Indirect effects are important considerations when making consequence analyses in general and in strategic environmental assessments in particular of potential transport solutions and infrastructure plans. The primary objective of this paper is to emphasize the need for a deeper understanding of the long‐term system effects of investments in transport infrastructure with a focus on the structuring effects that roads and railways have on society, e.g. altered transport patterns, altered settlement structures and changes in use of the built environment. Special attention is given to the following potential indirect effects: increased total transport volume, increased share of private motorists and truck transport, increased urban sprawl, and increased energy use in buildings. The conditions that determine the power of the effects are discussed and a number of key factors to be considered in transport infrastructure planning, especially in strategic environmental assessments, are suggested. Since many indirect effects emerge over time, an extended time perspective is of essence. Therefore, scenario techniques may be useful when analysing indirect effects in transport planning processes.     

A survey of the Swiss public transport system and policy

This paper surveys Swiss public transport structure and policy. The regulatory regime is explained with the division between the two operators working under federal monopoly — the State railways (SBB) and the postbuses (PTT) — and the rest of the system. The rather complicated Swiss subsidy arrangements are described. The federal government's emphasis on introducing cheap public transport fares on environmental grounds through the federal transport measures (BTM) and the use of cheap fares in urban areas are discussed. The paper notes the Swiss people's rejection by a referendum of a federal commission's proposal for an integrated transport policy, though some of the solutions were introduced in their own right: the division of SBB into two parts, and the creation of the concept Rail 2000, later developed into Rail + Bus 2000. Finally, the paper reviews problems of the Swiss policy, including the future of cheap fares, making some comparisons with developments in Scandinavia.     

Survey analysis of supply chain adjustment for Taiwanese information technology firms

Owing to the globalization of industry, the explosion in customer services and product life-cycle compression, most manufacturers have been adjusting the processes and activities of their supply chains to remain competitive and optimize total profit. The aim here was to explore the issues surrounding the changes in manufacturing supply chains and the consequential impact on freight transport demand. A questionnaire to survey Taiwanese information technology (IT) firms was designed and conducted to chart in detail the changes in supply chains of manufacturers, the trends in the international division of labour, and the strategic adjustment of manufacturing and logistics strategies. Surveys and interviews led to the conclusions that (1) vertical integration and international division of labour are very conspicuous among Taiwanese IT firms, (2) there are different strategies of supply chain adjustment at various stages of the product life-cycle, (3) with the transformation of the supply chain, manufacturers require faster transport services, i.e. the demand for air transport may increase and the demand for sea transport may decrease, and (4) once the firms decide on foreign investment, the availability of international transport services becomes one of the considerations for factory offshore relocation. However, transport cost is not a major consideration for firms' supply chain adjustments.     

小件快运中的最短运输时间问题

小件快运经过多年的发展,已经成为公路客运一个新的经济增长点,越来越多的公路客运企业和汽车客运站加入到经营小件快运的行列,小件快运也逐渐由单个企业的独立运营发展到多个企业联合的网络化运营。对中转运输中多条运输线路进行分析,得到最短运输时间线路,从而提高运输效率。