Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Decoupling of Road Freight Transport and Economic Growth Trends in the UK: An Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

Between 1997 and 2004, gross domestic product increased in real terms in the UK by one‐fifth, while the volume of road freight movement remained stable. This suggests that the long‐awaited decoupling of economic and freight transport growth has begun, possibly leading to a new era of sustainable logistics. This paper reviews previous research on the decoupling issue and recent trends in gross domestic product/freight tonne‐km elasticities in Europe and the USA. It then examines 12 possible causes of the observed decoupling in the UK using published statistics from a wide range of British and European sources. This analysis indicates that around two‐thirds of the decoupling is due to three factors whose impact can be quantified: the increased penetration of the British road haulage market by foreign operators, a decline in road transport’s share of the freight market, and real increases in road freight rates. Several other factors, most notably the relative growth of the service sector, the diminishing rate of centralization, and the off‐shoring of manufacturing, appear to be having a significant effect, though this finding cannot be measured on the basis of available statistics. The paper concludes that, while the decoupling is in the right direction from a public policy standpoint, the net environmental benefits are likely to be quite modest.     

Estimating potential reductions in externalities from rail-road substitution in Trans-European freight transport corridors

This paper develops a method for analysing and estimating savings in externalities that could be achieved by substituting truck with rail freight services in a given Trans-European freight transport corridor. The externalities affected include energy consumption, emissions of greenhouse gases, noise, congestion, and traffic incidents/accidents. The European Commission transport policy aims to provide an institutional framework for the medium- to long-term sustainable development of the transport sector. An important aspect of this policy is to stimulating the modal shift from truck to rail freight transport in inland Trans-European corridors.     

Energy conservation and intercity freight transport

In this paper, the characteristics of intercity freight modal operations are investigated to evaluate the potential for achieving energy savings. It is determined that the greatest opportunities for conserving energy appear to rest with achieving modal shifts and operational improvements in truck and rail transport. To test this hypothesis, intercity truck and rail freight operations are analyzed to determine the relationships between energy consumption and the delivery of transport service. The energy consumption impact of alternative conservation measures are calculated, and in turn, evaluated in light of a series of institutional constraints. As such, this study goes beyond the characteristic cataloging of alternative energy conservation measures by conducting a disaggregated assessment of the effectiveness and feasibility of implementing such measures. This paper concludes that the potential for achieving energy conservation in the movement of intercity freight in general, and by truck and rail systems in particular, is limited, as well as shrouded by the complexity of the nature of the commodity itself, the commodity flow characteristics, and the market and institutional structure.     

A Stated preference freight mode choice model

Transport policy aims to assist the transport system to work more efficiently and effectively. An understanding of the reasons why people choose to move freight in a certain manner is critical to the development of appropriate policies. This article outlines a data collection approach and the development of a disaggregate mode choice model applicable to the analysis of freight shipper decision making. It focuses on the choice between rail and road in Java, Indonesia. The model indicates that safety, reliability and responsiveness are major attributes influencing rail/road freight mode choice. Transport policies aimed at improving these dimensions should increase the attractiveness of rail transport.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Migration of railway freight transport from command economy to market economy: The case of China

In recent years, Chinese railway freight transport has been facing great challenges from transport market reformation and economic expansion. Although the total volume of railway freight has been increasing, its market share has decreased greatly, especially at the beginning of migration from command economy to market economy. This paper considers four aspects believed to be responsible for the loss of the railway freight market share. First, we review the history and current situation of the Chinese railway freight transport and study the relationship between economic development and freight transport in China. Second, the causes resulting in the loss of the market share of railway freight are analysed in detail. Third, the current measures taken by Chinese Railways (CR) to restore its competitiveness are discussed. The effects of these measures on railway traffic volume, market share and productivity are also studied. Finally, the way forward for the future of CR is discussed. It is concluded that CR has not yet adapted sufficiently to new economic conditions, although in recent years progress has been made. Further reform will be needed.     

Multiattribute decision analysis of mandatory ballast water treatment measures in the US Great Lakes

Mandatory ballast water management, resulting in an increase of required freight rates on the St. Lawrence Seaway, could induce a modal shift away from marine transportation. Such a shift may cause such side effects as increased air pollution and lower transportation safety. A multinomial logit model is built to predict the changes in market shares of competing transportation modes. Two wheat transportation scenarios are studied. The results show that only a small shift, if at any, will accompany mandatory measures for ballast water treatment. To evaluate the trade-offs between the side effects brought by any modal shifts and the NIS invasion effects, the analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the preferences of federal and state decision-makers. Analysis of questionnaires shows that among the three alternatives, ballast water exchange, filtration/UV, and heat, ballast water exchange proved to be the favored method.     

Breakthrough innovations in intermodal freight transport

Breakthrough innovations, whether technological, organizational or both, are a necessity if the market share of intermodal freight transport is to expand. The main growth potential lies in the markets for flows over short distances, for perishable and high-value commodities, for small consignments, and for flows that demand speed, reliability and flexibility. It will take radical innovations to produce a breakthrough in the modal split and allow these new markets to be conquered. This special issue is based on papers presented at an international conference on freight transport automation and multimodality, held in Delft in May 2002, that are illustrative of the direction of breakthrough research and development (R&D) aimed at increasing the market share for intermodal transport.     

Impacts of combining partial and general equilibrium modelling in freight transport analyses – a forest sector case study from Norway

Abstract

The forest sector in Norway is very transport intensive, accounting for approximately 14% of total domestic freight transport traffic on Norwegian roads. This paper presents an analysis linking a general equilibrium freight transport modelling tool with a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. The freight transport model predicts transport costs, modal split and transport patterns, and the results are treated as inputs to the forest sector model. The objective of the paper is to analyse the modelling effect of taking forest sector model effects back into the freight transport model and treated as new demand. Compared to a base scenario for the year 2020, we compare analyses with and without this new demand from the forest sector model back into the freight transport modelling tool.     

Modelling mode choice for freight transport using advanced choice experiments

In this paper we use advanced choice modelling techniques to analyse demand for freight transport in a context of modal choice. To this end, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted in order to estimate freight shipper preferences for the main attributes that define the service offered by the different transport modes. From a methodological point of view, we focus on two critical issues in the construction of efficient choice experiments. Firstly, in obtaining good quality prior information about the parameters; and secondly, in the improved quality of the experimental data by tailoring a specific efficient design for every respondent in the sample.With these data, different mixed logit models incorporating panel correlation effects and accounting for systematic and random taste heterogeneity are estimated. For the best model specification we obtain the willingness to pay for improving the level of service and the elasticity of the choice probabilities for the different attributes. Our model provide interesting results that can be used to analyse the potential diversion of traffic from road (the current option) to alternative modes, rail or maritime, as well as to help in the obtaining of the modal distribution of commercial traffic between Spain and the European Union, currently passing through the Pyrenees.     

Generic Framework for Transport Network Designs: Applications and Treatment in Intermodal Freight Transport Literature

Abstract

Six principles for the design of transport systems are described, including direct link, corridor, hub‐and‐spoke, connected hubs, static routes, and dynamic routes. The designs are theoretically discussed, defining the operational character of each design and their application in passenger, freight and rail freight transport. The theory is then applied to intermodal freight transport by comparing the terminology used in the paper with that in the scientific literature. The advantages of using a generic terminology over contextual ones are identified from the perspectives of researchers, commercial operators and policy‐makers.     

A multi-layer scenario analysis for sustainable international transport

This article considers the development of the international transport sector based on four globalization scenarios. These four images of the future transportation market are constructed at three different levels (global, European and Dutch). The possible consequences of these scenarios are mapped out not only by key aspects such as modal split and spatial organization but also by providing empirical insights into expected transport flows for both passenger and freight transport in 2020 based on data from 1995.     

A framework for urban freight policy analysis

This paper provides an overview of the urban freight process, in the context of the supply and demand aspects of freight. A framework for analysis is developed, and within that framework, particular aspects of the urban freight process are described. Issues of concern from a public policy viewpoint are highlighted.

Seven main instruments related to public policy are introduced and their application described — taxes and subsidies, regulations, investment, operational instruments, planning, public ownership and research.

It is concluded that the importance of urban freight to the community and its relevance to urban transport justifies a higher level of attention in transport planning and policy formulation, and that there are a wide range of policy instruments available to enable this to be done. The objective of such planning and policy making needs to be specified in each specific context.     

A planning model for multiple‐mode transportation system operations

The problem of generating a set of “good” transportation alternatives during the early and intermediate stages of transportation planning is addressed in this paper. A linear programming model of a multi‐modal transportation system is developed. The model is run interactively to determine optimal operating levels for all modes for various transport policy decisions. The model described is a component of a composite network generation model incorporating dynamic changes. The linear programming component determines optimal operating policies for given points in time. The composite model incorporates these in a dynamic programming framework to determine optimal staged investment policies over several time periods.     

Transportation policy analysis with a geographic information system: The virtual network of freight transportation in Europe

This paper presents a multi-modal freight transportation model based on a digitized geographic network. A systematic analysis and decomposition of all the transport operations i.e. moving, loading and unloading, transshipping and transiting, leads to the development of a virtual network where each virtual link corresponds to a specific operation, and all transportation modes and means are inter-linked. Software, called NODUS, automatically generates the virtual network so that the model can be conveniently applied to large networks. The analytical structure of the links notation makes it easy to attach specific cost functions to each virtual link. The model is applied to the trans-European freight network of roads, railways and inland waterways for the transportation of wood. Cost functions are built up for each operation by each mode/means combination. A detailed point-to-point origin-destination matrix, calibrated on Eurostat statistics, is generated by a Monte-Carlo technique. Then, the total transportation cost is minimized with respect to the choices of routes, modes and means. This provides estimations of transportation services demands as well as modal splits, to the extent that the two hypotheses of demand based on generalized cost minimization and market contestability are accepted. A sensitivity analysis on the relative road cost is made, which provides measures of arc-elasticities.     

Economical welfare maximisation analysis: assessing the use of existing Park-and-Ride services

This paper assesses travellers’ responses to the use of existing Park-and-Ride (P&R) services based on an economical welfare maximisation approach. Specifically, the paper presents a modelling framework to estimate consumer surplus and producer surplus (business profits) on the basis of modal choice probabilities. The paper draws on evidence from Stated Preference surveys conducted around two P&R sites in Sapporo, Japan, where P&R services occupy a modest market space. Overall, the results suggest that business profit increases when economical welfare is maximised, as a consequence of increased demand. It is also shown that P&R choice is not only influenced by parking fees, but also by the fares and other attributes of alternative transportation modes. Accordingly, the interactions of P&R with alternative transportation modes should be taken into consideration in any strategic transportation policies oriented towards motivating sustainable transport mode choices.     

A review of the impact of parking policy measures on travel demand

This paper reviews the empirical evidence relating to the impact of parking policy measures on the demand for parking and for travel. Disaggregate modal choice models, disaggregate parking location models and site‐specific studies of parking behaviour are examined. With regard to modal choice models, it is concluded that few studies deal adequately with parking factors, but that there is some support for the view that parking policy measures are a relatively important influence on modal choice. When parking location models are examined parking policy variables are shown to have a substantial impact on choice of parking location. With regard to site‐specific studies, the paper concludes that there is a great variation in the parking price elasticities quoted, which reflects partly the methodological problems associated with such studies. Suggestions to improve model specification are made.     

The same mode again? An exploration of mode choice variability in Great Britain using the National Travel Survey

The main focus of travel behaviour research has been explaining differences in behaviour between individuals (interpersonal variability) with less emphasis given to the variability of behaviour within individuals (intrapersonal variability). The subject of this paper is the variability of transport modes used by individuals in their weekly travel. Our review shows that previous studies have not allowed the full use of different modes in weekly travel to be taken into account, have used categorical variables as simple indicators of modal variability and have only considered a limited set of explanatory indicators in seeking to explain modal variability. In our analysis we use National Travel Survey data for Great Britain. We analyse modal variability with continuous measures of modal variability (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, the difference in mode share between the primary and secondary mode, the total number of modes used). Taking inspiration from Hägerstrand (1970), we conceive that modal variability is determined by different types of spatial mobility constraints and find that reduced modal variability is predicted for having mobility difficulties, being aged over 60, being non-white, working full-time, living in smaller settlement, lower household income, having regular access to a car, having no public transport pass/season ticket and not owning a bicycle. The findings can support a change in perspective in transport policy from encouraging people to replace the use of one mode with another to encouraging people to make a change to their relative use of different transport modes.     

External costs of the Belgian interurban freight traffic: a network analysis of their internalisation

The strong expansion of freight road transports throughout Europe is an important source of congestion and pollution, as well as a cause of many accidents. To solve this problem will require the conjunction of many different remedies. One element of solution would be the promotion and substitution of transportation modes with less negative effects. This paper is focused on this solution. It presents some results obtained from a detailed GIS modelling of the Belgian multimodal freight transport network inserted within the overall trans-European network. It outlines the results of a simulation of the flows over the Belgian network in 1995 which allows to estimate some of the costs of several external effects of freight transports: the costs of pollution, congestion, accidents, noise and road damages. This paper provides also the simulated impacts on modal choice of a marginal external cost internalisation, and an estimation of the corresponding external cost savings.