Geographical variations in hurricane risk and legislative response

Abstract

Risk from the “natural event system”; of hurricanes varies greatly along the U.S. coastline, and so do the property and lives at risk. Damage potential from storm surge in the Miami area is less than a third that of the Tampa area. However, damage potential from winds in the Boston and New York areas exceeds that of either the Miami or Tampa areas. Passage of time since the great hurricane disasters near the turn of the century and improvements in the warning system may make coastal dwellers underestimate the likelihood of a hurricane catastrophe. But population growth near the coast has been more than three times the national average, and 10 of 58 coastal segments 50 miles in width more than doubled in population between 1960 and 1970. Twenty‐two segments increased by more than 25,000 people with six increasing by 150,000. Legislative response to the growing hazard has varied as widely as risk but is not clearly correlated with risk.     

How to Retreat: The Necessary Transition from Buyouts to Leasing

Abstract

Moving assets out of vulnerable areas, known as “retreat,” is a necessary but unpopular option when coastal hazards impact land. Most people prefer protection options. Governments and private land owners tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach for retreat. This may be because the time for retreat seems some way off, or because protection has not yet been ruled out, or to avoid unwelcome news. This policy void has allowed people to assume that government will offer to “buyout” property on generous terms after coastal hazards inevitably force the owner to relocate. The problem with that assumption is that (a) it is unaffordable as a solution for all at-risk properties and (b) it acts as an incentive to intensify development in locations vulnerable to coastal hazards. It is, in effect, a form of market distortion which promotes maladaptive behavior. We therefore need to retire that assumption by articulating a standard default arrangement for retreat. This essay suggests that government should establish a default position of renting land, rather than acquiring it, once assets are abandoned by private land owners. This provides sufficient leverage to protect the public interest and a level of financial assistance to the relocating land owner, while allowing markets to properly reflect risk and enabling coastal adaptation.     

Information Management in Beach Planning

Abstract

This article concerns optimizing the use of environmental information for creative planning. It arose from a detailed study of the status and management of the coastal dunes of New South Wales, Australia, and discusses the way in which ideas for optimizing the management process were developed, and applied to three beach environments on the coast of New South Wales, Australia.

The problem of coastal beach/dune management may be thought of as being similar to a production function in which the inputs are the land resource, the skills and knowledge of managers, finance, and materiel. The outcomes are in the form of experiences, or opportunities for experiences, either passive or active, either consumption values or option values, desired by the coastal user population (which includes the resource managers themselves). The resource manager's task is to manipulate the “production function”; in order that the outputs will best mesh with the expectations of the user population and with the capability of the land resource to deliver on a sustained basis. An aim of the project was to develop a method for the specification of different possible outputs from the production function, in different beach/dune environments, and that could be used to assist in the preparation of advice on appropriate recreational development, allowing decisions to be based on both environmental data and information on the expectations, activities, and amenity preferences of beach users.     

Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and advisories was an important factor in evacuation decision making during both hurricane events. The perceived lack of reliability of gubernatorial warnings coupled with dependence on the media suggests that residents find other sources of information more personally relevant. Thus, while residents do not find that officials are “crying wolf,”; they are searching elsewhere for information to assess their own risk—what does it mean to me if there is a wolf? This increased attention toward individual differences in perceived threat may become more pronounced in future evacuations from hurricanes.     

Marine and coastal protected areas in Latin America: A preliminary assessment

Abstract

One approach to the management of coastal and marine areas is the establishment of protected areas (e.g., reserves, parks, sanctuaries). Under the general rubric of “marine reserves,”; this paper examines the Latin American experience with this strategy. A comprehensive table lists most, if not all, national or state declared parks or reserves. The table is organized by country. All Latin American nations have, to a varying extent, declared marine parks and protected areas. The authors review the sources or uses which have been “managed”; by marine reserves, the management approaches, uses, and problem which have been identified in achieving management objectives. The authors conclude with observations about the potential future utility of marine reserves as a management approach for areas and resources of the coastal and littoral zones of Latin America.     

Protecting Rhode Island's coastal salt ponds: An economic assessment of downzoning

Abstract

In southern Rhode Island, there is growing concern that housing and recreational demands will soon overwhelm the capacity of the coastal salt ponds to absorb wastes, produce seafood, and maintain scenic qualities. As a result, coastal towns have been studying the feasibility of using land controls such as downzoning to protect these coastal amenities. The paper presents an economic analysis of the downzoning program proposed in the town of South Kingstown. Hedonic price and contingent valuation methods are used to value coastal amenities. The estimated net present value of “swimmable” water is shown to be $3.1 million.     

Inland boundary determinations for coastal management purposes—an ecological systems approach to requirements of the federal coastal zone management Act of 1972

Abstract

An analysis of ecological systems that both sustain and are sustained by coastal waters provides the key to a biophysical procedure for delineating inland coastal management boundaries. This analysis entails two basic tasks: (1) mapping the ecosystems that compose coastal waters and adjacent areas, and (2) charting sustaining flows among these systems. The resulting boundary encompasses all environments of coastal waters (subaqueous areas containing a measurable quantity of seawater) and all shore‐lands (either emergent or submergent environments that interchange sustaining materials, energy, or biota with coastal waters). As this biophysical procedure depends on the precise location of, and functional transfers among, coastal ecosystems, it provides a means both for assessing the consequences of human actions and for establishing a landward boundary for a management program. Alternative boundaries not based on locations and operations of coastal ecosystems would probably be either arbitrary or of undue extent, nor would such “alternative”; boundaries be an integral part of an ongoing management process.     

Coastal Resources as an Engine of Economic Growth and Reduction of Poverty in West Africa: Policy Considerations

This article synthesizes lessons and outcomes from the second international Coastal Zone Asia-Pacific conference (CZAP) on “Improving the Quality of Life in Coastal Areas,” held in Brisbane in September 2004. The conference theme was chosen as a follow-up from the first CZAP that identified priority actions in response to the increasing recognition of social issues in coastal management, particularly those aiming to improve the state of the coastal areas in the Asia-Pacific region. The second CZAP explored the “quality of life” theme by placing emphasis on rectifying coastal poverty, sustaining livelihoods, and protecting cultural heritage. Mechanisms to address these issues were explored through international agreements, participatory research, capacity building, and education, as well as the continuing need for integrated planning, environmental management, and effective monitoring and evaluation. A post-conference survey showed that the second CZAP resulted in 122 initiatives (82 underway and another 40 planned) to progress the improvement of quality of life in coastal areas. These initiatives ranged from the establishment of a unit that is responsible for river basin and coastal zone management by the Thua Thien Hue provincial government in Vietnam, to a collaborative on-ground livelihoods project between NGOs, government, and financial institutions on coastal zone management facilitated by the Asian Development Bank. However, the authors argue that two key challenges for ICM in the Asia-Pacific region remain. These challenges relate to the effective monitoring and evaluation of ICM initiatives, as well as matching future ICM initiatives to emergent priority areas.     

Institutional arrangements for coastal conservation in New Zealand

Abstract

The focus of this paper is institutional arrangements for initiative coastal conservation in New Zealand. “Initiative”; conservation refers to positive measures for the protection of the natural environment for reasons related to its inherent worth. Case studies were undertaken in five areas with different biophysical and societal characteristics, where various approaches to coastal conservation are being attempted. In each area, an issue was analyzed to identify conservation policies and their relationship to ecological and human needs, and to administrative and legal frameworks. Analysis demonstrated that initiative conservation policy can encompass user and community needs while maintaining ecological priorities. Institutional arrangements do not appear to restrict the development of this type of policy in New Zealand, but they do limit its formal expression and implementation. Arrangements for cohesive conservation areas spanning the land‐sea interface are particularly lacking.     

Cooperative tourism and the coastal zone

Abstract

Most tourist development takes place in the coastal zone. Concentrated tourist use continues in spite of opposition by groups who feel that any tourism, especially international, threatens both the natural environment and local values. Although shorelines and “coastscapes”; belong to all, decisions regarding them are made by relatively few. The number of community organizations involved in coastal zone management decisions varies from almost none in some Third World countries to dozens in places like Hawaii or California. Constructive use of coastal zones requires an understanding of the interactions between biophysical and social systems. Planning tourism in this context requires that all groups with an interest in the coastal zone join in a new “cooperative tourism”; in which all contribute to decisions and face ultimate responsibilities.     

Federal consistency and state expectations

Abstract

The requirement in the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 that federal projects be consistent with approved state coastal zone management programs is an important incentive for states to complete their programs. As a condition of program approval, states must first consult with the federal agencies concerned and provide opportunities for comment, with the hope of avoiding conflicts. The consistency requirement is also subject to various exceptions whose scope remains to be determined. One such exception of uncertain extent is the exclusion from the coastal zone of federal lands “the use of which is subject solely to the sole discretion ... of the Federal Government....”; Despite these uncertainties, however, the consistency provision represents a major change in federal policy, which has traditionally allowed federal agencies to operate largely without concern for state land or water use requirements.     

Support for Oregon land‐use planning: A multi‐level analysis

Abstract

This article analyzes support for and opposition to state land‐use planning in Oregon, using voting records from the 1976 referendum to repeal Oregon's regulatory legislation and survey data. Support for controlled growth legislation is found to be a product of both individual‐level characteristics and characteristics of the larger community where one resides. The most influential contextual variables are the county's economy and the class composition of the city. The authors conclude that coastal zone managers must exercise caution when interpreting individual survey data which indicate support for various environmental concerns. Contextual differences must be taken into consideration because sources of support for coastal zone management may vary among individuals, depending on the nature of the communities in which they live.     

Planning for resilient coastal communities: Lessons from ecological systems theory

Abstract

One of the least understood aspects of coastal zone utilization is how communities respond and adapt to changes occurring in the marine environment and to changes which transform the socioeconomic, political, and administrative environment of the coastal zone. In Atlantic Canada, it is estimated that there are some 1,300 “fishing communities,”; yet these communities vary considerably in terms of population size, proximity to urban centers, and dependence upon the local resource base to provide employment opportunities and alternatives. Although numerous government planning documents have purported to support “community revitalization”; and “self‐sufficiency/self‐reliance,”; few inquiries have been directed toward ascertaining how communities have maintained resiliency in the face of unexpected and sudden shock, or have adapted to more gradual change. This essay argues that human communities and ecological systems may have similar attributes, and that appropriate resource development and management planning should take account of these traits as well as the sustaining structural support mechanisms.     

Editor's note on the comments from Eugene P. Odum,Howard T. Odum,Leonard Shabman,and Sandra Batie

Abstract

It was pointed out in a recent article on shorelines management in France that no overall coastal management legislation in that country exists.¹ Nevertheless, certain existing legislation has been adapted to take account of the peculiarities of the shoreline and coastal zone, and new institutions such as the “Shorelines Trust”; have been created.² As is the case with most countries in the Western world, the processes of urbanization, industrialization, and recreational development place tremendous pressure on shoreline use. Resulting conflicts are sometimes difficult to solve unless adequate institutional frameworks exist. Some form of institutional change is thus inevitable.     

Coastal Zone Management: Using No-Build Areas to Protect the Shorefront

Five coastal counties in Florida were studied to assess the effect of state-mandated local comprehensive plan policies on hurricane evacuation clearance times and public shelter demand. Numbers of residential units in 2002 and at the time of plan approval were estimated from property parcel data. Abbreviated transportation models were used to calculate 2002 evacuation times and shelter demand and to ascertain the impacts of post-plan residential growth within hurricane hazard areas. Calculated increases in clearance times and shelter demand are not in concert with the state's mandate to maintain or reduce clearance times. State law currently limits the leverage of the state planning agency to compel local governments to implement the required comprehensive plan policies. We recommend a concurrency management strategy that parallels the state's requirement to provide adequate transportation facilities to accommodate the impacts of future residential growth. Such a policy could be employed in other states as well.     

Interorganizational Considerations in Coastal Management: The 1976 California Legislative Experience

Abstract

Among coastal management programs, most states have found the question of appropriate administrative structure difficult to cope with. The dilemma of decision trade‐offs caused by the dual governmental needs of “efficiency”; and “representation”; has led to some alternative patterns of administration. For complex issues that transcend local boundaries, the choice between trade‐offs means adopting either (a) some form of consolidated bureaucracy or (b) some system of concurrent jurisdictions. Both alternatives have their inherent benefits and disadvantages but, considering the degree of environmental complexity and array of competing interests involved in coastal resource use, the most appropriate administrative form would seem to be concurrent control, as interagency reciprocal review promotes thoroughness and broad representation. Affected both by swings in political climate and by traditional reform politics, the case of California legislation represents a conscious deliberation over administrative alternatives. After experimenting with concurrent control under Proposition 20, California reversed its legislation in 1976 by mandating the consolidation of coastal management authority into existing bureaucratic line organizations and a reduction of the coastal agency after 1979 to a planning and advisory body.     

Shoreline development controls and public access to the ocean's edge

Abstract

The San Diego Coast Regional Commission, faced with the responsibility of approving, approving with conditions, or denying permits for development proposed along the scenic coastal bluffs of San Diego county, has adopted guidelines for bluff‐top development which assures retention of scenic vistas and provision of public access while permitting private landowners “reasonable use”; of their property. These unique guidelines delineate certain environmental and aesthetic parameters within which bluff‐top development may take place. Portions of the guidelines are presented, and some of the factors leading to their formulation and adoption are discussed.     

Risk assessment: An introduction and critique

Abstract

Risk assessment is a methodology which has been used to evaluate the safety of major public projects, notably aerospace programs, liquefied natural gas import facilities, and nuclear power plants.

This article begins with a review of public attitudes toward risk and then describes the basic components of a risk assessment. Subsequent critical analysis suggests the pitfalls inherent in the technique, especially in regard to the establishing of a criterion of safety against which the results of a risk assessment will be compared. The author identifies three such criteria and rejects two of them, including the one most commonly used in federal government agency decision‐making, as unreliable or philosophically unacceptable.

The article concludes with comments on the applicability of risk assessment in coastal zone management.     

Land use implications of sea level rise: A case study at myrtle beach,South Carolina

Abstract

the prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. this article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of myrtle beach, south carolina. current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted.

It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. to lessen these potential losses, coastal communities such as myrtle beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach, (2) raise the land, and (3) implement a strategic retreat. specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. the article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes.     

A user‐resource planning framework for offshore recreational artificial reefs

Abstract

Artificial reefs have been used extensively in coastal waters to attract and enhance recreational fishery resources. In the United States, they have been traditionally built from “materials of opportunity”; using limited budgets. This paper explores some past planning philosophies and presents a recent artificial reef deployment case that demonstrates a lack of sensitivity to local and regional recreational demand. A systems framework is developed to guide future planning efforts in artificial reef development. The framework is intended to integrate previously fragmented knowledge and to demonstrate the interdisciplinary nature of artificial reef planning. Emphasis is given to advance planning, user dimensions, and the integral issue of reef access.