Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to offset the CO₂ emissions resulting from rapid air traffic growth. Global aviation CO₂ emissions projections are examined for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic flows are forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO₂ emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO₂-eq. recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nor is any compatible with the Panel’s aim of limiting global warming to 3.2 °C.     

Vehicle restrictions and CO2 emissions in Beijing – A simple projection using available data

The Beijing Government launched a new policy on restricting vehicle ownership in late 2010 to regulate the faster motorization and the excessive vehicular carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In this paper, we first analyzed this policy and its effect on private passenger vehicle population. The private passenger vehicle population in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 was predicted under three different scenarios: no constraint (NC), current constraint (CC) and tighter constraint (TC). Then the assessment of vehicular emissions reduction benefits was made on the basis of private passenger vehicle population, vehicle kilometers traveled and CO₂ emission factors. It was projected that the CO₂ emissions in 2020 will reach 23.90, 15.55 and 13.23 million tons under NC, CC and TC respectively. The policy is very effective in controlling the faster motorization and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Biofuel futures in road transport – A modeling analysis for Sweden

First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO₂ reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO₂ reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (−80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO₂ abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.     

Can rail/sail compete with air travel to Cyprus? A comparison of emissions

Rail and sea voyage journeys to Cyprus from a variety of origins are constructed to derive the travel emissions and travel time per person to compare popular aviation routes. The hypothetical ‘slow travel’ routes are approximately eight to ten times longer than flying. Emissions are lower from certain origins by about 100 kg CO₂ per person per round trip under reasonably high occupancy conditions when compared to current direct air services. Emissions from the sea voyages are derived from a sample of 162 marine vessels using the energy efficiency design index for European ships running at 20 knots.     

Fueling for contingencies: The hidden cost of unpredictability in the air transportation system

The aviation community is increasing its attention on the concept of predictability when conducting aviation service quality assessments. Reduced fuel consumption and the related cost is one of the various benefits that could be achieved through improved flight predictability. A lack of predictability may cause airline dispatchers to load more fuel onto aircraft before they depart; the flights would then in turn consume extra fuel just to carry excess fuel loaded. In this study, we employ a large dataset with flight-level fuel loading and consumption information from a major US airline. With these data, we estimate the relationship between the amount of loaded fuel and flight predictability performance using a statistical model. The impact of loaded fuel is translated into fuel consumption and, ultimately, fuel cost and environmental impact for US domestic operations. We find that a one-minute increase in the standard deviation of airborne time leads to a 0.88 min increase in loaded contingency fuel and 1.66 min in loaded contingency and alternate fuel. If there were no unpredictability in the aviation system, captured in our model by eliminating standard deviation in flight time, the reduction in the loaded fuel would between 6.12 and 11.28 min per flight. Given a range of fuel prices, this ultimately would translate into cost savings for US domestic airlines on the order of $120–$452 million per year.     

Valorization of carbon dioxide by conversion into fuel using renewable energy in Algeria

Reducing the emissions of the main anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), is one of the major challenges of this century. A partial solution to these environmental problems could be the capture and the conversion of carbon dioxide. The main objective of the present work is to study the opportunities and prospects of recycling carbon dioxide to produce synthetic fuel, particularly methanol, which is a complementary technology to carbon capture and storage (CCS). This methanol will be produced by using several renewable energies, such as solar, wind and geothermal, for the purpose of using it in the transportation sector in Algeria. In 2013, Algeria’s total amount of CO₂ emissions (created by energy consumption) was 143 million tonnes. It is estimated that 44.4 million tonnes of CO₂ can be captured from the exhaust of stationary units (factories and power stations) and converted to methanol every year. By adopting this process, approximately 32 million tonnes of methanol can be produced with an energy value of 580,000 TJ. The methanol produced from CO₂ can be used as an alternative transportation fuel. For this reason, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to present the spatial distribution of the methanol demand in short and long terms, based on market penetration rates, vehicle fleet and population data. An analysis of the energy balance, environment and economics of CO₂ recycling process is presented. In terms of environmental performance, the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions that come from the transport sector was remarkable in 2045.     

A study of feasibility and potential benefits of organised car sharing in Ireland

In this study, the market potential of car sharing has been evaluated using multiple alternative scenarios which examine the geographic, financial and environmental factors influencing car sharing adoption. The scenarios are applied to the available and collected travel information of the Irish population to estimate the potential impact of introducing car sharing in Ireland. The analysis identified that car owners who travel predominantly on alternative modes, could make significant cost and CO₂ savings through car sharing. A reduction of yearly CO₂ emissions of 86 kt is readily achievable through car sharing, with reductions up to 895 kt possible with appropriate policy and financial support. These figures are comparable to other measures proposed under the Irish National Climate Change Strategy.     

Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030

Electric vehicles are often said to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. However, the results of current comparisons with conventional vehicles are not always in favor of electric vehicles. We outline that this is not only due to the different assumptions in the time of charging and the country-specific electricity generation mix, but also due to the applied assessment method. We, therefore, discuss four assessment methods (average annual electricity mix, average time-dependent electricity mix, marginal electricity mix, and balancing zero emissions) and analyze the corresponding CO₂ emissions for Germany in 2030 using an optimizing energy system model (PERSEUS-NET-TS). Furthermore, we distinguish between an uncontrolled (i.e. direct) charging and an optimized controlled charging strategy. For Germany, the different assessment methods lead to substantial discrepancies in CO₂ emissions for 2030 ranging from no emissions to about 0.55 kg/kWh_el (110 g/km). These emissions partly exceed the emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles. Furthermore, depending on the underlying power plant portfolio and the controlling objective, controlled charging might help to reduce CO₂ emissions and relieve the electricity grid. We therefore recommend to support controlled charging, to develop consistent methodologies to address key factors affecting CO₂ emissions by electric vehicles, and to implement efficient policy instruments which guarantee emission free mobility with electric vehicles agreed upon by researchers and policy makers.     

Reducing speed and fuel transfer of the Green Flag Incentive Program in Kaohsiung Port Taiwan

This research applied the Green Flag Program to assess the benefits of reducing speed and fuel transfer for large merchant vessels (bulk and container) entering Kaohsiung Port. This study adopts an activity-based model to calculate fuel consumption and emissions, as well as setting up two scenarios, (1) decrease vessel speed to 12 knots 20 nm away from port; and (2) decrease vessel speed to 12 knots and transfer fuel 20 nm away from port, which based on the Green Flag Program in Long Beach, in the U.S. The findings are (1) In scenario one, the container and bulk vessels saw reductions in CO₂ emissions of about 41% and 14%, respectively. In scenario two, container and bulk vessels had reductions of about 48% and 43% in SO₂ emissions, respectively. (2) Large vessels are more environmentally friendly than small vessels. (3) Using the CATCH model to assess the effectiveness of the two scenarios, it was found that container vessels benefited from both reducing speed and fuel transfer, while bulk carriers only did so from the former.     

Thermodynamic,environmental and economic effects of diesel and biodiesel fuels on exhaust emissions and nano-particles of a diesel engine

In this study, diesel (JIS#2) and various biodiesel fuels (BDF20, BDF50, BDF100) are used to operate the diesel engine at 100 Nm, 200 Nm and full load; while the engine speed is 1800 rpm. The system is experimentally studied, and the energy, exergy, sustainability, thermoeconomic and exergoeconomic analyses are performed to the system. The Engine Exhaust Particle Sizer is used to measure the size distribution of engine exhaust particle emissions. Also, the data of the exhaust emissions, soot, particle numbers, fuel consumptions, etc. are measured. It is found that (i) most of the exhaust emissions (except NO_x) are directly proportional to the engine load, (ii) maximum CO₂ and NO_x emissions rates are generally determined for the BDF100 biodiesel fuel; while the minimum ones are calculated for the JIS#2 diesel fuel. On the other hand, the maximum CO and HC emissions rates are generally computed for the JIS#2 diesel fuel; while the minimum ones are found for the BDF100 biodiesel fuel, (iii) fuel consumptions from maximum to minimum are BDF100 > BDF50 > BDF20 > JIS#2 at all of the engine loads, (iv) particle concentration of the JIS#2 diesel fuel is higher than the biodiesel fuels, (v) soot concentrations of the JIS#2, BDF20 and BDF50 fuels are directly proportional to the engine load; while the BDF100 is inversely proportional, (vi) system has better energy and exergy efficiency when the engine is operated with the biodiesel fuels (vii) sustainability of the fuels are BDF100 > BDF50 > BDF20 > JIS#2, (viii) thermoeconomic and exergoeconomic parameters rates from maximum to minimum are JIS#2 > BDF20 > BDF50 > BDF100.     

Effects of battery chemistry and performance on the life cycle greenhouse gas intensity of electric mobility

Lithium traction batteries are a key enabling technology for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Traction battery manufacture contributes to vehicle production emissions, and battery performance can have significant effects on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for PEVs. To assess emissions from PEVs, a life cycle perspective that accounts for vehicle production and operation is needed. However, the contribution of batteries to life cycle emissions hinge on a number of factors that are largely absent from previous analyses, notably the interaction of battery chemistry alternatives and the number of electric vehicle kilometers of travel (e-VKT) delivered by a battery. We compare life cycle GHG emissions from lithium-based traction batteries for vehicles using a probabilistic approach based on 24 hypothetical vehicles modeled on the current US market. We simulate life-cycle emissions for five commercial lithium chemistries. Examining these chemistries leads to estimates of emissions from battery production of 194–494 kg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) per kWh of battery capacity. Combined battery production and fuel cycle emissions intensity for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is 226–386 g CO₂e/e-VKT, and for all-electric vehicles 148–254 g CO₂e/e-VKT. This compares to emissions for vehicle operation alone of 140–244 g CO₂e/e-VKT for grid-charged electric vehicles. Emissions estimates are highly dependent on the emissions intensity of the operating grid, but other upstream factors including material production emissions, and operating conditions including battery cycle life and climate, also affect life cycle GHG performance. Overall, we find battery production is 5–15% of vehicle operation GHG emissions on an e-VKT basis.     

Commuters’ exposure to PM2.5 and CO2 in metro carriages of Shanghai metro system

Air quality inside transportation carriages has become a public concern. A comprehensive measurement campaign was conducted to examine the commuters’ exposure to PM_2.5 (d_p ⩽ 2.5 μm) and CO₂ in Shanghai metro system under different conditions. The PM_2.5 and CO₂ concentrations inside all the measured metro lines were observed at 84 ± 42 μg/m³ and 1253.1 ± 449.1 ppm, respectively. The factors that determine the in-carriage PM_2.5 and CO₂ concentrations were quantitatively investigated. The metro in-carriage PM_2.5 concentrations were significantly affected by the ventilation systems, out-carriage PM_2.5 concentrations and the passenger numbers. The largest in-carriage PM_2.5 and CO₂ concentrations were observed at 132 μg/m³ and 1855.0 ppm inside the carriages equipped with the oldest ventilation systems. The average PM_2.5 and CO₂ concentrations increased by 24.14% and 9.93% as the metro was driven from underground to overground. The average in-carriage PM_2.5 concentrations increased by 17.19% and CO₂ concentration decreased by 16.97% as the metro was driven from urban to the suburban area. It was found that PM_2.5 concentration is proportional to the on-board passenger number at a ratio of 0.4 μg/m³·passenger. A mass-balance model was developed to estimate the in-carriage PM_2.5 concentration under different driving conditions.     

Influence of driving patterns on vehicle emissions: A case study for Latin American cities

On-board real-time emission experiments were conducted on 78 light-duty vehicles in Bogota. Direct emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and hydrocarbons (HC) were measured. The relationship between such emissions and vehicle specific power (VSP) was established. The experimental matrix included both gasoline-powered and retrofit dual fuel (gasoline–natural gas) vehicles. The results confirm that VSP is an appropriate metric to obtain correlations between driving patterns and air pollutant emissions. Ninety-five percent of the time vehicles in Bogota operate in a VSP between −15.2 and 17.7 kW ton⁻¹, and 50% of the time they operate between −2.9 and 1.2 kW ton⁻¹, representing low engine-load and near-idling conditions, respectively. When engines are subjected to higher loads, pollutant emissions increase significantly. This demonstrates the relevance of reviewing smog check programs and command-and-control measures in Latin America, which are widely based on static (i.e., idling) emissions testing. The effect of different driving patterns on the city’s emissions inventory was determined using VSP and numerical simulations. For example, improving vehicle flow and reducing sudden and frequent accelerations could curb annual emissions in Bogota by up to 12% for CO₂, 13% for CO and HC, and 24% for NO_x. This also represents possible fuel consumption savings of between 35 and 85 million gallons per year and total potential economic benefits of up to 1400 million dollars per year.     

Economic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has a goal that one billion gallons of renewable jet fuel is consumed by the US aviation industry each year from 2018. We examine the economic and emissions impacts of this goal using renewable fuel produced from a Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) process from renewable oils. Our approach employs an economy-wide model of economic activity and energy systems and a detailed partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry. If soybean oil is used as a feedstock, we find that meeting the aviation biofuel goal in 2020 will require an implicit subsidy from airlines to biofuel producers of $2.69 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. If the aviation goal can be met by fuel from oilseed rotation crops grown on otherwise fallow land, the implicit subsidy is $0.35 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. As commercial aviation biofuel consumption represents less than 2% of total fuel used by this industry, the goal has a small impact on the average price of jet fuel and carbon dioxide emissions. We also find that, under the pathways we examine, the cost per tonne of CO₂ abated due to aviation biofuels is between $50 and $400.     

Sulphur abatement globally in maritime shipping

In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns.The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5% sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SO_X reductions and CO₂ (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO₂ emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO₂ emissions.     

Economic valuation of Well-To-Wheel CO2 emissions from freight transport along the main transalpine corridors

CO₂ emissions are one of the main externalities related to freight transport. Their evaluation is extremely difficult, due to the presence of several scientific and economic uncertainties. This paper discusses the approaches currently adopted by literature to deal with CO₂, proposing a methodology based on a Well-To-Wheel quantification and an economic valuation deriving from a meta-regression. A freight transport analysis is then provided for one of the most critical areas of Europe, the Alps. Here, the different approaches adopted by the single nations determine divergent results in terms of modal shift towards rail and, consequently, CO₂ emissions. An integrated and transnational strategy could lead to better results, avoiding detoured traffic and increasing the share of railway traffic. To this aim, the carbon impacts of three specific alpine-wide measures are evaluated: namely, Alpine Crossing Exchange, Emissions Trading and Differentiated Toll System. In comparison with business-as-usual scenario, the case study reveals a potential CO₂ saving up to more than 600,000 tons and 38 M€ for the year 2030, thus providing policy makers with an integrative transnational tool able to evaluate the long-term carbon impact of their transport decisions.     

An aircraft performance model implementation for the estimation of global and regional commercial aviation fuel burn and emissions

Estimates of global aviation fuel burn and emissions are currently nearly 10 years out of date. Here, the development of the Aircraft Performance Model Implementation (APMI) software which is used to update global commercial aviation fuel burn and emissions estimates is described. The results from APMI are compared with published estimates obtained using the US Federal Aviation Administration’s System for Assessing Aviation’s Global Emissions (SAGE) for the year 2006. The number of global departures modelled with the APMI software is 8% lower compared with SAGE and reflects the difference between their commercial air traffic statistics data sources. The mission fuel burn, CO₂ and H₂O estimates from APMI are approximately 20% lower than those predicted by SAGE for 2006 while the estimate for the total global aircraft SO_x emissions is approximately 40% lower. The estimates for the emissions of CO, HC and NO_x are 10%, 140% and 30% higher than those predicted by SAGE respectively. The reasons for these differences are discussed in detail.     

Energy use and emissions of two stroke-powered tricycles in Metro Manila

CO, CO₂, NO_x and HC emissions of two stroke-powered tricycles in Metro Manila are examined using an instantaneous emissions model. Results show that fuel consumption and HC emissions in middle class residential areas and main roads are similar but lower than levels in low income residential areas. On the average, tricycles in Metro Manila consume 24.41 km/l of fuel and produces 9.5, 9.7, 40.5 and 0.07 g/km of HC, CO, CO₂ and NO_x, respectively. They fail to satisfy HC, CO and NO_x emission limits set by reference standards in the Philippines and other Asian countries. They produce greater HC and CO emissions than gasoline fueled private cars and diesel powered public jeepneys, taxis and buses on a per passenger-km basis but significantly lower NO_x emissions. Tricycles account for 15.4% of the total HC emissions from mobile sources in the metropolis while their contributions to CO, CO₂ and NO_x are minimal.     

Analysis of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of regulated and alternative driving cycles based on real-world measurements

Discrepancies between real-world use of vehicles and certification cycles are a known issue. This paper presents an analysis of vehicle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of the European certification cycle (NEDC) and the proposed worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP) Class 3 cycle using data collected on-road. Sixteen light duty vehicles equipped with different propulsion technologies (spark-ignition engine, compression-ignition engine, parallel hybrid and full hybrid) were monitored using a portable emission measurement system under real-world driving conditions. The on-road data obtained, combined with the Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) methodology, was used to recreate the dynamic conditions of the NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle. Individual vehicle certification values of fuel consumption, CO₂, HC and NO_x emissions were compared with test cycle estimates based on road measurements. The fuel consumption calculated from on-road data is, on average, 23.9% and 16.3% higher than certification values for the recreated NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle, respectively. Estimated HC emissions are lower in gasoline and hybrid vehicles than certification values. Diesel vehicles present higher estimated NO_x emissions compared to current certification values (322% and 326% higher for NO_x and 244% and 247% higher for HC + NO_x for NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle, respectively).