Fuel demand,road transport pollution emissions and residents’ health losses in the transitional China

In recent years, China’s rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents’ health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During the past decades, fluctuation in the international oil prices has imposed significant impacts on the China’s road transport sector. Therefore, inspired by Li and Zhou (2005), we propose an assumption that China’s provincial economies are independent “economic entities”. Based on this assumption, we investigate the China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the panel data of all 31 Chinese provinces except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. To connect the fuel demand system and the air pollution emissions, we propose the concept of pollution emissions elasticities to estimate the air pollution emissions from the road transport sector, and residents’ health losses by a simplified approach consisting of air pollution concentrations and health loss assessment models under different scenarios based on real-world oil price fluctuations. Our framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to address the transmission mechanism between the fuel demand system in road transport sector and residents’ health losses in the transitional China.     

Pathways for GHG emission reduction in Norwegian road transport sector: Perspective on consumption of passenger car transport and electricity mix

Electrification of the transport sector is considered as a solution to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions and achieve sustainable mobility. Specifically in the case of electrification of passenger vehicles, various industrial and policy initiatives have been introduced. In this article, we present and assess three approaches – pro-technology, pro-simplicity and mix (of the aforementioned approaches) – to achieve target emission reductions in the Norwegian road transport sector. We also assess the influence of including ‘Guarantee of Origin’ certification for the electricity production in accounting for typical consumption electricity mix in Norway.Results show that for the same reductions in tail-pipe GHG emissions, pro-technology, pro-simplicity, and the mix scenario offer 22%, 29% and 28% reduction in the life cycle GHG emissions respectively, compared to the reference scenario in year 2020. However, the pro-simplicity scenario requires 25% reduction in vehicle-km driven compared to the pro-technology scenario, which provides the same passenger car mobility as in the reference case. When the GHG intensity of the electricity mix used to power EVs is corrected to account for actual consumption mix in Norway, a 13% reduction in the net GHG benefit of pro-technology scenario is observed.     

Low carbon urban transport scenarios for China and India: A comparative assessment

This paper assesses comparable urban transport scenarios for China and India. The assessment methodology uses AIM/End-use model with a detailed characterization of technologies to analyze two scenarios for India and China till the year 2050. The first scenario assumes continuation and enhancement, in both countries, of policies under a typical business-as-usual dynamics, like constructing metros, implementing national fuel economy standards, promoting alternate fuel vehicles and implementing national air quality standards. The alternative, low carbon scenario assumes application, in both countries, of globally envisaged measures like fuel economy standards as well as imposition of carbon price derived from a global integrated assessment modeling exercise aiming to achieve global 2 °C temperature stabilization target. The modeling results for both countries show that decarbonizing transport sector shall need a wide array of measures including fuel economy, low carbon fuel mix including low carbon electricity supply. The comparison of China and India results provides important insights and lessons from their similarities and differences in the choice of urban transport options. India can benefit from China’s experiences as it lags China in urbanization and income. Modeling assessments show that both nations can contribute to, as well as benefit by aligning their transport plans with global climate stabilization regime.     

Low-carbon futures for Shenzhen’s urban passenger transport: A human-based approach

Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving China’s ambitious CO₂ emission reduction targets. Using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we develop a human-based agent model to conduct a scenario study of future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from 2014 to 2050. Responses to different policy interventions at the individual level are taken into account. We find that with current policies, the carbon emissions of the urban passenger transport sector in Shenzhen will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. Strengthening 21 transport policies will help Shenzhen to peak the carbon emissions by 2030 for passenger transport. Among these policies, the car quota policy and the fuel economy standard are essential for achieving a carbon peak by 2030. In addition, a package of seven policies, including fewer car quotas, a stricter fuel economy standard, raising parking fees, limiting parking supply, increasing EV charging facilities and subway lines, and improving public transport services, is sufficient to peak carbon emissions by 2030, although at an emissions level higher than for the 21 policies.     

Decouple transport CO2 emissions from China’s economic expansion: A temporal-spatial analysis

China’s transport industry is energy intensive and high-polluting. While with the surging urbanization and the development of service industry, China’s economic relies more and more on the transport sector. Therefore, exploring the relationship between transport energy-related carbon emission (TECE) and economic development is crucial to the realization of China’s “Post Paris” mitigation target. The paper carries out a decoupling research between TECE and Gross domestic product (GDP) at both national level and province level based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis with the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model. The model quantifies eight factors’ effects on the relationship with focusing on external macro socio-economic related factors (i.e., spatial pattern, urbanization, per capita service industry output value, reciprocal of the service industry’s share of GDP, and demographic variable) successfully. The key conclusions are indicated as follows: (1) the national decoupling status was extensive coupling during 2004–2010 and then weak decoupling during 2010–2016. The progress can be attributed to the decline of energy intensity. (2) Per capita service output was always the prominent factor to promote carbon emissions growth in different time periods and provinces with inhibiting the advancement of decoupling process, followed by urbanization. (3) Scenario analysis shows that with the continuous growth of traffic demand and the promotion of urbanization, improving energy efficiency has become the key link to realize the decoupling between China’s TECE and its economy.     

Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study of Ahmedabad

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO₂ mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM_2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development.     

Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways

The rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway tracks, airports) is deployed, will play an important role in determining energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport sector. This paper describes an exercise where the costs of infrastructure deployment for the transport sector have been incorporated into the IMACLIM-R Global E3 IAM. In addition to adding these costs, the modelling of the criteria for the deployment of infrastructure for roads has also been improved. It is found that this model recalibration results in a more accurate baseline as compared to historically observed data (2001–2013) for investments in energy demand, road infrastructure, and passenger kilometers travelled. Regarding macroeconomic effects, it is found that the imposition of a carbon emission trajectory to 2100 cause GDP to decrease relative to the newly calibrated baseline – this is a standard IAM result. However, when the deployment of infrastructure for roads and air travel is further constrained, the GDP loss is less than with a fixed carbon emission trajectory only. This is because early restriction of infrastructure for roads and air travel allows an expansion of public transport infrastructure which is adequate to meet low-carbon transport service demand whereas when less public transport infrastructure is available, more costly mitigation investments must be made in other parts of the economy. This suggests that restricting infrastructure deployment as a complementary policy to carbon pricing, lowers the cost of mitigation.     

Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas

Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions.     

Valorization of carbon dioxide by conversion into fuel using renewable energy in Algeria

Reducing the emissions of the main anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), is one of the major challenges of this century. A partial solution to these environmental problems could be the capture and the conversion of carbon dioxide. The main objective of the present work is to study the opportunities and prospects of recycling carbon dioxide to produce synthetic fuel, particularly methanol, which is a complementary technology to carbon capture and storage (CCS). This methanol will be produced by using several renewable energies, such as solar, wind and geothermal, for the purpose of using it in the transportation sector in Algeria. In 2013, Algeria’s total amount of CO₂ emissions (created by energy consumption) was 143 million tonnes. It is estimated that 44.4 million tonnes of CO₂ can be captured from the exhaust of stationary units (factories and power stations) and converted to methanol every year. By adopting this process, approximately 32 million tonnes of methanol can be produced with an energy value of 580,000 TJ. The methanol produced from CO₂ can be used as an alternative transportation fuel. For this reason, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to present the spatial distribution of the methanol demand in short and long terms, based on market penetration rates, vehicle fleet and population data. An analysis of the energy balance, environment and economics of CO₂ recycling process is presented. In terms of environmental performance, the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions that come from the transport sector was remarkable in 2045.     

Simulating deep CO2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to simulate transition towards low carbon transportation in the European Union until 2050 and to assess the ensuing macroeconomic and sectorial impacts. Transport restructuring is dynamically simulated using a new transport-oriented version of the computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 which is linked with the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy and transport sectors model. The analysis draws from comparing a reference scenario projection for the EU member-states up to 2050 to alternative transport policy scenarios and sensitivities which involve deep cutting of CO₂ emissions. The simulations show that transport restructuring affects the economy through multiple channels, including investment in infrastructure, the purchasing and manufacturing of new technology vehicles, the production of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and electricity. The analysis identifies positive impacts of industrial activity and other sectors stemming from these activities. However, the implied costs of freight and passenger transportation are of crucial importance for the net impact on GDP and income. Should the transport sector transformation imply high unit costs of transport services, crowding out effects in the economy can offset the benefits. This implies that the technology and productivity progress assumptions can be decisive for the sign of GDP impacts. A robust conclusion is that the transport sector decarbonisation, is likely to have only small negative impacts on the EU GDP compared to business as usual.     

A bibliometric analysis on trends and characters of carbon emissions from transport sector

Transport sector’s substantial contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions has made it a growing area of study and concern. In order to identify trends and characteristics of carbon emissions research in the transportation sector we conducted a Bibexcel and complex network analysis for the period 1997–2016. In addition, we identify critical themes and contributions of research articles using h-index, PageRank and cluster analysis. We report contribution of countries, authors, institutions and journals, as well as performance of citations and keywords. Co-citing situations between different countries, authors, and institutions are also analyzed using network analysis. Between 1997 and 2016 we found a rise in publications on carbon emissions in the transportation sector and increased cooperation between countries, authors, and institutions. Authors from the USA, China and United Kingdom published the most articles and articles with the highest academic influence. Tsinghua University from China is the leading institution in carbon emissions research in the transportation sector. The most widely published author and cited author is Dr. He. We conclude our analysis by analyzing keywords and trends to suggest critical topic areas of future research. The systematic approach undertaken in this study can be extended and applied to other research topics and fields.     

Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Beijing

In the process of rapid development and urbanization in Beijing, identifying the potential factors of carbon emissions in the transportation sector is an important prerequisite to controlling carbon emissions. Based on the expanded Kaya identity, we built a multivariate generalized Fisher index (GFI) decomposition model to measure the influence of the energy structure, energy intensity, output value of per unit traffic turnover, transportation intensity, economic growth and population size on carbon emissions from 1995 to 2012 in the transportation sector of Beijing. Compared to most methods used in previous studies, the GFI model possesses the advantage of eliminating decomposition residuals, which enables it to display better decomposition characteristics (Ang et al., 2004). The results show: (i) The primary positive drivers of carbon emissions in the transportation sector include the economic growth, energy intensity and population size. The cumulative contribution of economic growth to transportation carbon emissions reaches 334.5%. (ii) The negative drivers are the transportation intensity and energy structure, while the transportation intensity is the main factor that restrains transportation carbon emissions. The energy structure displays a certain inhibition effect, but its inhibition is not obvious. (iii) The contribution rate of the output value of per unit traffic turnover on transportation carbon emissions appears as a flat “M”. To suppress the growth of carbon emissions in transportation further, the government of Beijing should take the measures of promoting the development of new energy vehicles, limiting private vehicles’ increase and promoting public transportation, evacuating non-core functions of Beijing and continuingly controlling population size.     

Understanding the development of business travel policies: Reducing business travel,motivations and barriers

Business travel accounted in the UK in 2010 for 3% of trips and 10% of the UK’s domestic distance travelled (Department for Transport, 2011, p. 4). However, it is an under researched area, even though in major cities, where transport networks are most congested, it forms a higher proportion of trips. The paper presents the findings of a study of changing business travel practices and policies affecting the briefcase traveller. The findings are drawn from semi-structured interviews with key actors in stakeholder and private sector organisations based predominately in London and a survey of 150 business travellers. The study was designed to understand the motivations and attitudes towards reducing business travel and the compromises that needed to be made to balance reducing carbon emissions and cost, whilst maintaining or improving productivity and meeting the requirements of the business.The main findings show the approaches and implications of these approaches to reduce carbon emissions and costs, improve productivity and the impact of ICT. The findings show the importance of external reporting through the Carbon Reduction Commitment, the Carbon Disclosure Project and corporate responsibility reports as a motivator to develop new policies. The paper goes on to outline how some factors can be both barriers and motivations for change, such as customers insisting on meeting their suppliers face-to-face, but also requiring information on carbon emissions as part of the Carbon Disclosure Project. Individuals can also be both a barrier and a motivator to change. The role of existing travel and meeting habits and the view of some that travelling is a perk linked to status symbols have proved to be a hard barriers to overcome. However, a technically literate younger generation used to communicating virtually have challenged these practices.     

Intertemporal issues and marginal abatement costs in the UK transport sector

An energy system model, UK MARKAL, is combined with decomposition analysis and sensitivity analysis to derive mitigation costs and emissions reduction potentials in the UK transport sector. The paper tests the robustness of a marginal abatement cost curve for the year 2030 for two parameters: path dependency and discount rate. Path dependency is found to be a significant, yet not substantial, influencing factor on the shape and the structure of the marginal abatement cost curve. Doubling the technology-specific hurdle rates shows that abatement costs increase significantly. The results suggest that policy makers should be aware of the underlying carbon tax pathway and whether results are based on society’s view or a private perspective.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009

Road transport is the major source of global greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector, contributing about three quarters towards the total transport emissions. This study used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Tier 2 approach to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009. Key transport emitting sources, trend analysis and modal intensities were determined for the two countries. For South Africa, provincial road transport emissions were calculated from the number of vehicles by vehicle type and distance travelled. Calculations were at a national level in Lesotho. Road transport carbon dioxide equivalent emissions were estimated at 43.5 million tonnes in South Africa and 0.28 million tonnes in Lesotho in 2009. Motorcars and trucks produced 70.6% of the total road transport emissions in South Africa. Road transport emissions increased by approximately 2.6% per year between 2000 and 2009 in South Africa, while they increased by approximately 2.5% per annum in Lesotho over the same period. Gauteng province had the highest emissions, contributing approximately a third of total road transport emissions in South Africa; while the Northern Cape contributed only 2%. Minibus taxis were the most efficient transport mode on the basis of load carried. The Northern Cape had the highest emissions per passenger-kilometres and tonne-kilometre while the North West had the lowest. Trend assessment showed that emissions from trucks increased rapidly while emissions from other modes of transport decreased over the study period.     

The role of ‘indirect’ greenhouse gas emissions in tourism: Assessing the hidden carbon impacts from a holiday package tour

Tourism is a noticeable contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Existing estimates of tourism’s carbon footprint are however incomplete as they fail to holistically assess the additional, ‘indirect’ carbon requirements. These arise from the non-use phases of a tourism product or service life cycle and can be further magnified by supply chain industries. Under-development of methods for carbon impact assessment in tourism is the primary reason for the omission of ‘indirect’ GHG emissions. This study develops a new approach for comprehensive appraisal of GHG emissions which incorporates and advances the methodological advantages of existing assessment techniques. It tests the applicability of this approach in tourism by conducting a holistic analysis of a standard holiday package to Portugal, based on the British tourism market. The new approach demonstrates the significance of the ‘indirect’ GHG emissions in the total carbon footprint from the holiday package, thus emphasising the necessity for more comprehensive future assessments.     

Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California

This paper investigates how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (i.e., 80in50). A Kaya framework that decomposes greenhouse gas emissions into the product of population, transport intensity, energy intensity, and carbon intensity is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. Each transportation subsector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, and off-road vehicles, is analyzed to identify specific mitigation options and understand its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analysis shows that, while California’s 2050 target is ambitious, it can be achieved in transport if a concerted effort is made to change travel behavior and the vehicles and fuels that provide mobility. While no individual ‘‘Silver Bullet” strategy exists that can achieve the goals, a portfolio approach that combines strategies could yield success. The 80in50 scenarios show the impacts of advanced vehicle and fuels technologies as well as the role of travel demand reduction, which can significantly reduce energy and resource requirements and the level of technology development needed to meet the target.     

A valuation of the environmental performance of vehicles: an analysis and comparison of two methodologies

The European Clean Vehicle Directive was introduced in 2009 to create an obligation on public authorities to take into account the impact of energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and pollutant emissions into their purchasing decisions for road transport vehicles. This should stimulate the market for clean and energy-efficient vehicles and improve transport's impact on environment, climate change and energy use. Therefore the so-called ‘Operational Lifetime Cost’ of a vehicle is calculated, divided into the cost for energy consumption, CO₂ and pollutant (nitrous oxide, particulate matter, non-methane hydrocarbons) emissions. In Belgium, a different methodology has been developed to calculate the environmental impact of a vehicle, called ‘Ecoscore’, based on a well-to-wheel approach. More pollutants are included compared to the Clean Vehicle methodology, but also indirect emissions are taken into account. In this paper, both methodologies are compared and used to analyze the environmental performance of passenger cars with different fuel types and from different vehicle segments. Similar rankings between both methodologies are obtained; however, the large impact of energy use (and CO₂ emissions) in the Clean Vehicle methodology disadvantages compressed natural gas cars, as well as diesel cars equipped with particulate filters, compared to the Ecoscore methodology.     

A welfare cost assessment of various policy measures to reduce pollutant emissions from passenger road vehicles

Policy options to reduce passenger transport emissions in Europe are simulated with the EUCARS model. The EUCARS welfare analysis includes changes in consumer surplus, congestion and tax revenues. Simulations also address consumer myopia, i.e., the underestimation of fuel costs by car buyers. The best policy mix to reduce CO₂ consists of fuel taxes that are combined with differentiated purchase taxes to correct for the assumed myopia. This combination could reduce CO₂ emissions of over 25% without reducing contemporaneous well-being. For the reduction of conventional emissions, an equivalent best mix includes an emissions-based kilometre tax combined with a purchase feebate. This mix allows a 60% reduction in toxic emissions without any noticeable welfare reduction. The overall superiority of these two mixes compared to alternative choices is higher when the evaluation includes a broad group of externalities, a premium on public funds, and positive feedbacks across emissions categories. Local traffic management measures are important zero-cost complements for an overall emissions strategy.