中国航运企业景气状况分析与预测（2014年第二季度）

1中国航运企业景气状况未明显改善 随着2014年第二季度我国经济发展形势逐渐企稳,中国航运企业经营状况恶化的趋势有所放缓,中国航运企业景气指数值有所回升。2014年第二季度,中国航运企业景气指数为93．87点,较上季度略微上涨3．48点,但仍处于不景气区间;中国航运企业信心指数为80．55点,再次出现较大幅度下滑,跌至较为不景气区间（见图1）。     

中国航运企业景气状况分析与预测

(2013年第一季度)自2011年第四季度以来,中国航运景气指数已经连续6个季度处于景气分界线以下,中国航运业整体状况每况愈下,航运企业经营状况继续恶化。本期,中国航运景气指数为86.11点,处于相对不景气区间,较上季度下降2.47点;中国航运信心指     

长江航运景气调查报告

<正>(2012年二季度)一、2012年二季度长江航运景气状况有所回升1.港航企业综合生产经营状况进入景气区2012年二季度,25%的港航企业生产经营状况较好,53%一般,其余不佳。长江航运景气指数为101.64,回到景气区,比上期上升2.36点,比去年同期下降10.31点。2.港航企业对行业发展信心略有回升二季度,7%的港航企业认为当前长江航运行业发展状况良好,69%认为一般,其余认为不佳。     

八成中国航运企业担心二次探底

上海国际航运研究中心发布《航运市场分析报告第二季度季报》。7月3日,该中心还发布了2011年第二季度中国航运景气报告。该中心发现,国际集装箱运输市场大多数航线的运价出现降幅,仅有20%的航运企业认为中国航运业不存在二次探底的风险。     

中国航运企业景气状况分析与预测(2014年第三季度)

<正>1中国航运企业景气状况略有改善随着美国等发达经济体经济的复苏及季节性旺季的到来,我国航运企业景气状况出现一定程度的改善,但航运企业的经营信心依然略显不足。2014年第三季度,中国航运景气指数为103.77点,较第二季度上升9.9点,回升至微景气区间,是2014年内首次回升至景气区间;中国航运信心指数为95.58点,较第二季度上升15.03点,处于微弱不景气区间(见图1)。     

弱复苏下的航运“二次探底”之忧

今年上半年以来,航运市场走势难以乐观。上海国际航运研究中心7月3日发布的《2011年第二季度中国航运景气报告》显示,今年第二季度中国航运景气指数为103.81点,继续徘徊在景气分界线附近。由调查而得到的数据也显示,82.35%的船舶运输企业经营人认为目前行业正逐步走向或已经处于＂二次探底＂之中,行业前景不明朗。     

弱复苏下的航运“二次探底”之忧

今年上半年以来,航运市场走势难以乐观。上海国际航运研究中心7月3日发布的《2011年第二季度中国航运景气报告》显示,今年第二季度中国航运景气指数为103.81点,继续徘徊在景气分界线附近。由调查而得到的数据也显示,82.35%的船舶运输企业经营人认为目前行业正逐步走向或已经处于＂二次探底＂之中,行业前景不明朗。     

二季度航运市场或延续反弹

日前，上海国际航运研究中心发布了2012年《航运市场分析报告第一季度回顾及第二季度展望》。报告指出，受季节性因素、供需失衡等因素的集中影响，第一季度全球航运市场整体呈“触底反弹”走势，预计第二季度市场将持续反弹好转。     

中国航运景气状况分析与预测(2020年第四季度)

1我国航运景气指数创历史新高中国航运景气报告显示,2020年第四季度,中国航运景气指数达到122.63点,提升至较为景气区间,并较2017年最高点高出2.68点,景气指数创历史新高;中国航运信心指数为141.15点,环比上涨25.52点,进入较为景气区间(见图1)。所有企业信心指数均大幅上涨,企业家们对市场经营充满信心。     

从突围到攻坚:航运市场涨跌互现,持续徘徊

时至年中,航运市场从突围到攻坚,艰难跋涉,呈现涨跌互现、持续徘徊的状态。近日,由上海国际航运研究中心发布的2012年《航运市场分析报告第二季度回顾及第三季度展望》称,第二季度国际集装箱运输企业始有盈利,油轮运输企业亏损形势也有所改观,但是干散货运输企业遭遇严重的经营困境,亏损严重;同期,沿海干散货运输市场再次大幅探底。《报告》指出,第二季度世界经济增长未达预期,经济下行压力进一步加大。美国就业数据疲软,5月份,美国失     

现代航运服务体系建设——上海国际航运中心流动的智慧

进入21世纪,具有明显周期性特征的航运业快速持续发展了6年时间,成为航运业有史以来最长的一次繁荣期。但随着世界经济进入不景气的下降周期,国际贸易活动开始进入萎缩期,国际航运运价指数一路暴跌,与国际贸易流量相伴而生的国际航运业开始进入冬季。在这样的背景下,《国务院关于推进上海加快发展现代服务业和先进制造业建设国际金融中心和国际航运中心的意见》的提出,无疑对上海国际航运中心建设提出了更高的要求和目标,必将给上海国际航运中心建设置入"加速助力器",同时也为中国经济发展带来新的机遇。2009年上海港完成集装箱吞吐量2500.1万TEU,其中洋山深水港完成785万TEU,全港集装箱吞吐量已连续3年位居世界第二位,货物吞吐量完成5.92亿t,同比增长1.8%。全港货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量继续位居世界第一和第二位。但航运融资、航运保险等业务在全球份额不足1%,相比伦敦各项业务基本20%以上的份额,差距巨大。单纯吞吐量的增长已经不能胜任港口在上海现代服务业发展中的带动作用,上海应该在"硬实力"成果突出的基础上,重点推进"软实力"发展。加大航运服务体系的建设,将是今后上海国际航运中心建设的重中之重。     

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act: the trans-Atlantic cares

For many years, economists have pressed for the deregulation of the shipping industry, with studies purporting to show constant returns to scale in motor transport, and staggering losses inflicted on the economy by regulation. Deregulation is now the order of the day in the US, but during the deregulation process, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) struggled with strong pressure to remove anti-trust immunity historically enjoyed by ocean shipping conferences.

However, instead of entirely removing this anti-trust immunity, the US Congress passed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) in 1998. OSRA, which came into effect on 1 May 1999, represents a logical continuation of the trend toward deregulation established by the Shipping Act of 1984. Although the Act (OSRA) maintains anti-trust immunity, its creation also established confidential service contracts between shippers and individual lines.

Because the actual effect of this Act has yet to be researched and reported in the transportation literatures, this paper assesses the impact of OSRA on the market structure of the container shipping industry. Three major east- and westbound arterial routes, as determined by Drewry Shipping Consultants and Containerisation International, are examined in this study to ascertain whether the markets are competitive or not 1, 2. The trade imbalance existing in all three trade routes (trans-Atlantic, trans-Pacific, and from Asia to northern Europe) provides a basis from which to investigate the pricing structure in the container shipping market. The changing tariff structure of the trans-Atlantic lane in 1999 provides the foremost evidence of the impact of the Act to evaluate the new law's impact on the maritime industry. By examining the traffic volume and freight rates of inbound and outbound trades, this paper found that before the second quarter of 1999, the trans-Atlantic lane's market structure was non-competitive, but it became competitive after the third quarter of 1999. This paper concludes that OSRA did have substantial influence on the market structure of the trans-Atlantic lane since the Act came into effect on 1 May 1999. The Act laid a solid legal framework upon the industry that forced the carriers in the trans-Atlantic trade route to operate competitively.     

三峡库区航运人才需求分析与对策研究

三峡库区航运业的发展,衍生了巨大航运人才需求市场,而传统意义上仅仅掌握船舶操纵技术的航运人才已不适应航运经济的发展,航运人才缺乏将是制约库区航运经济发展的瓶颈。本文通过对三峡库区航运业人才需求分析,指出了目前存在的不足,提出了解决办法。     

跨国海运公司的经营战略与上海国际航运中心的建设取向

本世纪８０、９０年代崛起的跨国海运公司是当前及可预见未来的世界航运主角，其全球性经营战略的走势，将在很大程度上对世界航运业的发展格局发挥重要的作用，亦将对上海国际航运中心的建设产生深远的影响。对世界上一些著名跨国海运公司的经营战略进行了考察，并就其中具有共性的要点作出了初步的归纳，即：海运航线主干化和全球化，营销网络自营化和当地化，运输工具大型化，物流系统综合化，管理技术信息化和竞争对手联营化。作者指出，鉴于跨国海运公司上述的经营战略要点，上海国际航运中心在建设取向上，一开始就要充分考虑到如何主动顺应这一世界航运业发展的新趋势。换言之，即从现在起，就必须在港。规范科学化、海运辅助服务系统化和航运管理现代化等几个主要方面大作文章，妥为规划，预谋良策。基于此种认识，从宏观的角度提出了一些相应的论证和建议，以供有关方面作为决策参考。     

Liner shipping development trends

The expansion of liner shipping paralleled developments in retailing and containerization introduced scale economics. The liner industry has moved into an era of prosperity, and containerships have been affecting demand for other ship types. Demand growth is generally taken for granted, but several factors have been putting pressure on smaller carriers, including upsizing and route network developments. Trends appear to favour independent operation over vessel sharing and increasing profitability suggests that carriers will seek to own more of their own assets. Competition from logistics providers will increasingly dictate how the industry develops.     

Liner shipping development trends

The expansion of liner shipping paralleled developments in retailing and containerization introduced scale economics. The liner industry has moved into an era of prosperity, and containerships have been affecting demand for other ship types. Demand growth is generally taken for granted, but several factors have been putting pressure on smaller carriers, including upsizing and route network developments. Trends appear to favour independent operation over vessel sharing and increasing profitability suggests that carriers will seek to own more of their own assets. Competition from logistics providers will increasingly dictate how the industry develops.     

国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

2003年是国际干散货运输市场迄今为止表现最为强劲的一年。以中国进口铁矿石和日本进口煤炭为核心的需求空前高涨,谷物和小宗散货海运贸易也十分活跃,历史罕见的压港和低增长的新交船使运力供应高度紧张,市场出现严重的“结构性失调”,不仅夏季淡季不淡,表现火爆。而且在中国“十一”长假期间出现“井喷”行情,BDI指数一举冲破4 500点大关,较上一个历史高点1995年5月1日的2 352点高出2 000多点,三大船型运价水平均创历史新高。之后市场经过半个月的调整又再度发力,BDI再度越过4 700点大关,以完美的表现宣告了今年的结束。各权威机构对世界经济在2004年将加快发展已经基本达成共识,而目前在国际干散货运输市场中起着引擎作用的我国经济发展更是势头强劲,其钢铁工业步入高增长期,已成为不容争辩的事实,这无疑都为国际干散货运输市场提供了一个更加广阔的发展空间。运力方面虽然新交船数量略高,但船舶压港短时间内难以解决。因此,2004年的干散货运输市场总体形势看好。     

Maritime economics in a Post-Expansion Panama Canal Era

Government recently introduced the Transport Law Reform Bill, which if passed by Parliament, will allow foreign vessels to uplift and discharge cargoes and passengers along the coast of New Zealand. Coastal shipping is part of the domestic transport industry, which has benefitted from deregulation and considerable restructuring over the last decade. This paper provides a brief review of the coastal shipping industry in New Zealand and an overview of international cabotage laws. An alternative open coast shipping policy proposed by the New Zealand Shipping Federation, which is based on ‘level playing fields’ principles, is presented. The scope of cost benefit analysis is outlined and the potential costs and the potential costs and benefits of the Government's open coast shipping policy are summarized. Despite the potential costs to New Zealand of an open coast policy appearing to be considerably greater than the potential benefits. Government officials have not undertaken an empirical cost benefit analysis. The paperr concludes that hte clauses of the Transport Law Reform Bill relating to an open coast policy should be withdrawn and a full empirical cost benefit analysis should be undertaken to determine the best coastal shipping policy for New Zealand.     

Achieving an ASEAN single shipping market: shipping and logistics firms’ perspective

ABSTRACT

To establish an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Single Shipping Market (ASSM) is an important part of ASEAN governments’ overall plan to achieve an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. It is expected that a single shipping market will improve the region’s logistics performance and international competitiveness. To achieve this vision, however, the ASEAN countries need to remove any remaining barriers to logistics performance. In this light, the objective of this paper is to identify these barriers and assess their effects on the logistics performance of shipping and logistics firms based in ASEAN countries. Using a questionnaire-based survey, the study revealed several barriers affecting their logistics performance with varying significance among these countries. Unless these barriers from the perspective of the industry are removed, the ability of the shipping and logistics industry to benefit from a liberalized market would be limited. These perceived barriers are examined in detail and strategies to address them are proposed. The ASEAN experience is applicable to similar countries in the process of integrating their international shipping sector as well as contributes to the understanding of the different barriers and how these barriers can affect the logistics performance of shipping and logistics companies.     

Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.