Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has tremendous potential for ocean shipping between Europe and Asia due to the savings from shorter transit time and distance. However, the Arctic area is environmentally vulnerable and thus there is a trade-off between NSR’s impacts on environment vs. its economic benefits, especially when compared with the traditional route, such as through the Suez Canal Route (SCR). This study estimates the market shares of different transport modes and alternative shipping routes for the container transport market between Europe and Asia, and the resulting environmental costs. Our result suggests that NSR can be a viable option under the status quo. However, its environmental costs tend to be higher than SCR due to small ship size and low load factor in the present, thus the development of NSR would lead to worse environment outcomes. If these issues can be resolved, NSR can benefit from lower operational and environmental costs, which will lead to higher market share and social welfare. Otherwise, increased use of NSR may lead to higher total environment costs than the status quo.     

An exploratory study on the Northern Sea Route as an alternative shipping passage

This qualitative inductive research explores the potential benefits for the Scandinavian economy and ports through the implementation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative for container shipping to the established Southern route through the Suez Canal. To extract expert’s opinions and address these objectives, we utilised in-depth face-to-face semi-structured interviews through purposive sampling in a single case study setting. The analysis of the data demonstrates that the commercialisation of NSR can yield benefits for the Scandinavian economy (e.g. GDP increase, jobs creation) and reveals the benefits of Scandinavian ports (e.g. ECA’s, flexibility, hinterland, etc.) compared to other ports in North West Europe, which potentially grasp the NSR as an opportunity. However, it is highlighted that this can only be achieved if Scandinavian countries are proactive and secure their involvement.     

How do the new shipping routes affect Asian liquefied natural gas markets and economy? Case of the Northern Sea Route and Panama Canal expansion

This study focuses on the expected impact of Northern Sea Route (NSR) usage and the Panama Canal (PC) expansion on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports of Asian countries, from not only the macroeconomic viewpoint but also diversification of the supplying countries. First, the amounts saved from shipping costs due to these events are estimated, based on scenarios on the navigable period of the NSR, transit fee of the NSR considering the exchange rate between the Russian ruble and US dollar, and bunker fuel price. Second, a spatial general equilibrium model based on macroeconomic theory is applied to predict changes in LNG trade patterns and measure economic impacts due to the reduction of shipping costs. Finally, the impacts of NSR usage as well as the PC expansion on LNG imports of Asian countries are discussed based on the calculations. The results show that diversification of supplying countries for LNG imports can be observed, especially in Japan, the largest LNG importer in the world, and other Asian countries are secondarily affected by changes in Japan’s import pattern, with limited impacts on these countries’ national economies.     

Ports in Proximity – Competition and Coordination among Adjacent Seaports,edited by Theo Notteboom,Cesar Ducruet,and Peter de Langen

The summer minimum extent of Arctic sea ice shrank drastically in these years, and the opportunity on Arctic international shipping emerged. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), formerly blocked by permanent ice, was completely ice-free in September in the past 3 years. Because this route is much shorter than conventional Asia–Europe shipping lane, many maritime countries have paid attention to exploit the enormous potential of the Arctic Ocean from economical consideration. This study measured the economical advantage of the seasonal NSR by calculating the shipping cost saved.     

The maximum shipping capacity of the Suez Canal

This paper considers the determination of the maximum shipping capacity of the Suez canal. Initially, some assumptions are made in order to calculate the ‘theoretical’ maximum capacity in terms of ‘standard ships’. This last term defines ships which transit the Canal at a given speed and at a given time interval from the vessel ahead and astern.

Data has been collected from the Canal Zone, the analysis of which provides the necessary information regarding speeds of vessels at different sections of the Canal, time gaps between different classes of ship at different nodes of the Canal, and relationships between time widths of convoys and numbers of ships in those convoys at different points of the Canal.

This data has then been used to calculate the maximum capacity of the Canal in terms of ‘real ships’. For that purpose four schemes have been devised, each taking a different mix of categories of ships. A sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to investigate the effect of each class of ship on the real maximum shipping capacity of the Canal. The last two schemes take into consideration the effect of the future introduction of supertankers.     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

结合南水北调东线工程实现京杭运河(济宁-天津段)复航

探讨南水北调东线工程与京杭运河航运协调发展的可行性和必要性,分析航运用水、复航条件、通航期等问题,并在此基础上提出了分阶段逐步恢复京杭运河(济宁以北至天津)通航的规划方案,力争早日实现交通部提出的“三横一纵”中“一纵”目标,使之成为我国重要的南北向水路运输大通道。     

The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network

ABSTRACT

Straits and canals have always served as key nodes in shipping networks. The blockage of a strait or canal will lead to ship deviations and increased transportation costs. To measure this impact on the Chinese fleet, our study develops a mathematical model that is based on a programming formulation. Each strait or canal is assumed to be blocked in turn, and the increased transportation costs for the Chinese fleet in different scenarios are calculated and compared using the proposed programming formulation in order to measure the impact of the blocked strait or canal on the Chinese fleet. Larger increases in transportation costs have greater impacts on the fleet. The results show that a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would have the greatest impact of all straits and canals; it would cause the Chinese fleet to lose a portion of its import and export market, and such a blockage cannot be addressed through ship deviations. Based upon increased transportation costs, the four straits or canals that would have the greatest impact if blocked are the Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, the Sunda Strait and the English Channel.     

通航历时对沿海散货港区航道通过能力的影响分析

航道是整个港航生产作业系统的一部分,其通过能力影响因素众多,计算过程复杂。在分析众多因素的前提下,运用Arena仿真软件建立散货港区船舶进出港作业过程仿真模型。仿真结果表明:单线航道通过能力与船舶通航历时之间呈负指数分布关系,并且AWT/AST值越大,其负指数分布曲线拟合度越高;双线航道通过能力不受通航历时的影响。     

Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab-Israeli wars (1967-1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.     

埃及塞德东港二期集装箱码头边坡施工控制工艺

以苏伊士运河集装箱码头二期水工项目为例,针对斗容56 m3液压抓斗挖泥船在港池、边坡施工中所采取的技术措施,提出大斗容液压抓斗边坡施工的改进技术方案。结果表明：新施工工艺对于边坡施工具有易于控制、易于操作的优势,施工中应用新工艺及措施出色地完成了南护岸边坡的施工,超深、超宽得到有效控制,为护岸结构后续护面、倒滤层施工提供了有利条件,节省了施工成本。     

Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab–Israeli wars (1967–1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.     

京杭运河山东段航运发展战略探索

在分析京杭运河山东段航运发展现状的基础上,提出京杭运河山东段航运发展战略总体目标是建设京杭运河水上运输高速大通道,打造现代化航运体系,并阐述了实施四大战略的发展战略重点及建立六大工作机制的发展战略措施。     

Investigating UAVs applications and intention to use in the maritime shipping in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

This study empirically evaluated the effects of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) applications and acceptable cost on intention to use UAVs in maritime shipping contexts. Factor analysis was employed to identify key UAVs applications (i.e. pollution forensics, supervision and service, search and rescue, humanitarian and emergency delivery, and safety and security), acceptable UAV cost, and intention to use UAVs. Survey data were collected from 201 respondents working for a maritime port corporation, shipping company, agency, and stevedoring company, and then hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to test research hypotheses and examine the effects of UAVs applications and acceptable cost dimensions on intention to use UAVs. The results suggested that the pollution forensics, supervision and service, search and rescue, humanitarian and emergency delivery, and safety and security dimensions positively affected intention to use UAVs. The study findings also revealed negative associations among seniority, turnover, and intention to use UAVs. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications are proposed to assist maritime port bureaus, corporations, and operating practice design in remaining competitive and efficient.     

高油价对长江水上安全的影响

随着燃油成本的提高,航运的成本随着提高,这给航运的经营带来了巨大的压力,船舶在航行中采取违反航行规则来取得效益,这对长江水上安全带来了影响。     

Arctic routing: Challenges and opportunities

Responding to the world’s growing demand for oil and gas, Arctic resources have been given much attention by the energy and shipping industries. In addition, global warming has accelerated oil and gas development in the Arctic, particularly in its western region. Ice-diminishing Arctic has inspired the world’s shipping industry to explore the feasibility of the historical Arctic routes, the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route, as seasonal commercial sea lanes. The background aspects of the Passages and the main issues to be solved for their commercial openings are discussed in this paper. Challenges to an internationally agreeable Arctic regime, likely the Antarctic Treaty, are crucial for clean production and safe transport of the Arctic resources and the transit passages across the Arctic Ocean.     

Mode selection of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping under land-sea combined transportation

ABSTRACT

Combining ro-ro shipping and tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport under land-sea combined transportation can reduce operating costs and improve the safety of maritime transport. In addition, selection of the tractor-and-semitrailer swap mode (i.e., the ship-swap mode and port-swap mode) is a critical factor that affects the efficiency and cost of ro-ro ship loading/unloading. Considering inland pickup/delivery and ship loading/unloading, this paper develops a model that determines the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport with the objective of minimizing the total cost. This study also considers constraints such as empty semitrailer exchange and multiple time windows associated with customer receiving/delivery locations and the ro-ro ship. A hybrid simulated annealing (SA) is applied to solve the problem. By analysing numerical examples, the results show that the port-swap mode is more suitable than the ship-swap mode when the number of tasks is large because the port-swap mode can perform more tasks with fewer tractors than the ship-swap mode and because the port-swap mode can service receiving/delivery locations and finish ship loading/unloading more punctually than the ship-swap mode. Thus, this research provides a useful reference for road transport carriers and port firms to select the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping.     

江海直达小型LNG运输船设计研究

讨论江海直达小型LNG运输的设计要点。以1 000 m3LNG运输船为目标,结合武汉长江大桥下游的长江平流通航条件以及投资和营运经济性,探讨相适应的船型尺度,确定合适的航速以及液货舱型式,对于机型的选择进行分析比较,提出较为合适的船型配置方案建议。