Empirical approaches to combining revealed and stated preference data: Some recent developments with reference to urban mode choice

This paper replaces the nested logit ‘trick’ used in estimation of a modal choice model, when stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data are pooled, with an error component mixed logit model that can (i) relax the IID condition attached to subsets of alternatives in nested logit models, (ii) accommodate correlated observations, and (iii) reveal the relevant scale parameter for subsets of alternatives. Such a model can also incorporate state dependence between data types and preference heterogeneity on observed attributes. An example of choice among bus, train and car modes illustrates the difference in empirical evidence, especially elasticity outputs.     

Estimation of the shore excursion expenditure function during cruise tourism in Korea

Recently, the number of foreign tourists to Korea via cruise ships has increased dramatically. We attempted to estimate the shore excursion expenditure function during cruise tourism in Korea. To this end, we collected data from a survey of foreign tourists who visited Korea via cruise ships and conducted the ordered probit model with sample selection to correct for the sample selection bias. Statistical tests indicate that the sample selection model provides unbiased estimates of the ordered probit model. The estimation results reveal that the coefficients of the experience of visiting Korea, job status, annual income, and nationality have statistically significant relationships with shopping expenditure. Further, it is likely that Chinese and Japanese passengers spend more money on shopping than passengers from other countries. This study is expected to provide the Korean government and port authorities with useful information for targeting passengers with high shore excursion expenditure. From a management perspective, the results of this analysis will enable cruise operators to design shore excursion programs that meet travelers’ needs.     

Determinants of container port choice in Spain

For the economic and financial evaluation of port investment projects, it is important to know the demand function of a port's services. The objective of this study is to establish such a demand choice function for the Spanish container port services. The function is derived from the coefficients of a port choice model, for which a multinomial logit model is used and of which the coefficients are estimated with regression analysis. The variables tested concern inland transport cost, ocean transport costs and broad proxy variables for quality of service. Information on container import and export flows for 2007 is obtained from the Spanish Treasury Department. The linear regression analysis is based on differences of utilities of alternative routings of containerised cargoes compared to those routed via the port of Valencia. The obtained results are satisfactory in terms of model fit. The estimated coefficients can be used to assess the impact of changes in costs of container flows routed via a port on a port's market share. A demand choice function for the port can be derived by systematically doing so. An example is presented for the port of Valencia.     

Testing port choice models using physical and monetary data: a comparative case study for the Spanish container trades

ABSTRACT

Transport costs are useful explanatory variables in port choice research. Nevertheless, the availability of such information usually poses a problem. Thus, the formulation of an alternative approach, to be used as a proxy of these variables, would be desirable. The objective of this study is to improve the analysis of container port choice using logit models by adopting physical non-monetary indicators based on maritime distance and ship size. The statistical tests of logit models on port choice using these new variables are compared with the result of using cost variables for the same data set of choice positions. The statistical outcome is good and allows us to present this new approach as a contribution to the literature on port choice modeling.     

基于MNL模型的托运人港口选择分析

运用Multinomial Logit(MNL)模型,以长江三角洲港口为例,从港口和承运人两方面综合考虑,提出由港口和承运人不同组合而形成的各种选择方案,计算了托运人对各种方案的选择概率和各个港口的市场份额,并进一步分析各个因素的影响程度以及港口市场份额对这些因素变化的弹性程度。旨在为托运人合理选择港口和降低运输成本、为港口正确制定经营策略和合理明确自身定位提供一定的参考依据。     

Port economic impact model (PIM) and its planning applications

The provision of adequate port capacity has been essential for Korean economic development, as its foreign trade has been predominantly seaborne. In this respect, efforts have been directed to the development of seaports in order to provide a sufficient level of service for greater national control of foreign trade. The port planning and development process in Korea, however, has not been a total success. This is underlined by the fact that the seaport industry in Korea has not coped with the increased demand, and total seaport capacity has lagged behind need. This paper examines the validity of the port input-output model (PIM) as predictive tool to future planning. Further the value of the PIM as a forecasting tool to the port transport industry in Korea is identified.     

水运工程信息模型体系研究及应用

信息模型体系是水运工程BIM技术研究及应用中的重要组成部分。为解决水运工程信息模型全生命期应用过程中出现的模型层级混乱、难以管理等问题,结合水运工程行业的特点,对水运工程信息模型体系进行了分析研究。提出分层构建水运工程信息模型体系的思路和具体方法,最后以实际项目应用为依托,对分层构建模型体系的方法进行验证。结果表明:分层构建模型体系的方法使模型层级结构清晰明了,便于信息模型的规范化管理及应用。     

Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation

Container terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea–land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month’s income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management.     

A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services

Choosing between the competing approaches to providing enhanced bus services requires the ability to predict the effects on patronage and overall benefits to society in terms of Value of Resources Consumed (VRC) of any proposed change. One common approach uses the Mohring model of 1972 and its successors to optimise one or more aspects of the supply of transit services given various level of demand. This paper simulates the operation of a simple circular bus route using the equations of a basic Mohring type model and a Decision Support System (DSS) to endogenise demand under the assumption that there is a fixed demand for travel but commuters can choose between the bus and private vehicle. The selected approach recognises that demand for a particular mode of travel is predicated on the speed of the vehicle in service which is itself determined by the demand for that vehicle (in this model or boarding and alighting time) rather than being determined exogenously. This creates an iterative feedback mechanism whereby changes to the attributes of the bus and car alter mode choice and the speed in service of the bus which, in turn, alters mode choice. The simulation is used to predict changes to patronage and VRC under scenarios regarding changes to the transport network (in terms of fares and running costs, frequency and spacing of bus stops) using parameters from both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL). The results demonstrate that there are large differences in the size and, in some cases, direction of predicted changes to patronage, VRC and revenue, depending on whether the parameters of the MNL or MMNL model are used.     

Container terminals in South Korea: problems and panaceas

Korea has achieved remarkable economic growth over the last three decades. This has largely been due to the adoption of export-oriented economic policies. This economic development has resulted in a rapid increase in export and import cargos. Since the foreign trade of Korea is carried predominantly by sea transport (approximately 99.8% in terms of volume), ports play a crucial role in this process. Although recent port developments are aimed at keeping pace with ever-growing seaborne cargoes, problems persist, especially insufficient port capacity and inefficient management and operations. As a consequence, the ports of Korea suffer from serious port congestion. This problem is particularly acute in Pusan, the fifth largest container port in the world. In the past, all ports in Korea were controlled and administered by the Korea Maritime and Port Administration which was a public port authority. In August 1996, the Korean government established a new government organization, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF), with a remit to control and manage its seaports and other related activities and to improve management efficiency in the maritime area. As a way of solving problems related to port congestion and other sources of inefficiency, the new MMAF has launched several new port development schemes. In this context, this paper will discuss (1) the extent of congestion in Korean ports, especially Pusan, the major seaport of the country; and (2) governmental and commercial reaction to solving the problems, including measures such as new port development schemes aimed at attracting private and foreign finance. From this analysis, a strategy for port development in developing countries may be inferred.     

港口工程综合管沟设计

综合管沟作为一种集约化的管线敷设方式,解决了道路"开膛破肚"的问题,节约了港口宝贵的土地资源。通过综合管沟在大连港矿石码头工程中的实际应用,提出了综合管沟的设计原则、设计方法、设计中应当注意的问题,提出了综合管沟在港口工程中应用的前景。     

后方陆域窄小的海湾港口发展模式

海港大型化、深水化发展要求港口大型船舶提供更深的水域和更广的后方陆域。在深水岸线资源紧缺的情况下,探讨了水深条件良好而后方陆域窄小的海湾港口发展模式,通过建设物流通道来扩展港口活动的空间,从而带动地区经济的发展,并从集聚角度论证了该发展模式能有效降低社会物流成本。     

厦门港刘五店港区岸线规划试验研究

厦门港刘五店港区将发展为对台＂三通＂的重要口岸。文中通过物理模型试验,研究了不同岸线方案条件下港区附近水流条件和泥沙回淤强度。试验结果表明,刘五店港区建设对同安湾影响较小,其规划方案是可行的。可为刘五店港区岸线规划布置提供科学依据。     

The urban port: A hidden resource for the city and the coastal zone

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the changing pattern of activity on the urban waterfront. It examines developments in marine transportation technology and in the economic structure of the central city that have influenced the function of the urban port. Drawing upon data related to the West Side of Manhattan, the impact of the changes in cargo and passenger ship operations on the urban port is described and analyzed. A twofold strategy for public agencies to identify and understand the opportunities presented by technological change and to formulate policies for the redevelopment of the urban coastal zone is discussed.     

Inland container terminal—function and rationale

Increasing commercial and recreational pressures on urban waterfront lands, growing demand by seaports for back-up areas and changes in cargo-distribution concepts have caused the relocation of several port functions and the establishment of inland container terminals.     

A disaggregate analysis of factors influencing port selection

In this paper are presented the results of a multinomial logit model used to explain the selection of a port for each shipment exported from the US in December 1999. The model is estimated for combined shipments, and one model is estimated for each of four commodity types (bulk, foods, fabrics, manufactured). Results are compared across commodities to find the significance of the distance in either direction, the frequency of sailings, and the average size of vessels sailing along a route. Results of the estimation do not match those that would be expected. Potential reasons are given for such variations, along with numerous methods by which the modelling could be improved. Methods for improvement suggested include structuring of the model to represent more accurately the competitive scenario of each port, constraining the choice set for each shipments from characteristics of the carrier, and the commodity.     

Environmental assessment in the Prc: Third phase of the Qinhuangdao coal port

Abstract

The use of environmental impact assessment (EIA) is relatively recent in the People's Republic of China (PRC). China is committed to a reversal of the environmental degradation resulting from its industrialization and the central government has initiated a requirement for environmental planning and assessment for large development projects. Today large scale harbor developments are subject to the requirements of the National Environmental Protection Law (1979) and the Marine Environmental Law (1982). Because the third phase expansion of the coal port of Qinhuangdao would increase the ports’ capacity to handle coal by 30 to 50 million tons, an EIA was required.

Since 1981, the Environment and Policy Institute of the East‐West Center (EWC), Honolulu, has had a program of research focusing on the environmental impacts of coal transportation. On the basis of workshops in China that centered on the problems associated with planning coal transportation projects, the Ministry of Communications of the PRC invited the EWC to participate in the environmental assessment for the third phase coal port expansion at Qinhuangdao. A 10‐member team with specialities in environmental assessment and port environmental problems from five countries representing the EWC worked with a 25‐member team from four different agencies of the PRC Ministry of Communications.

This article describes the environmental regulations in the PRC that affect this harbor expansion, discusses the process by which the EWC assisted the PRC in the preparation of the environmental assessment and evaluates the assessment product against PRC regulations and U.S. standards. The most important contribution of the EWC was the provision of guidelines adapted from the EIA experience in several countries which will assist the PRC in the environmental evaluation of future pon expansion projects.     

Inland container terminal—function and rationale

Increasing commercial and recreational pressures on urban waterfront lands, growing demand by seaports for back-up areas and changes in cargo-distribution concepts have caused the relocation of several port functions and the establishment of inland container terminals.     

A disaggregate analysis of factors influencing port selection

In this paper are presented the results of a multinomial logit model used to explain the selection of a port for each shipment exported from the US in December 1999. The model is estimated for combined shipments, and one model is estimated for each of four commodity types (bulk, foods, fabrics, manufactured). Results are compared across commodities to find the significance of the distance in either direction, the frequency of sailings, and the average size of vessels sailing along a route. Results of the estimation do not match those that would be expected. Potential reasons are given for such variations, along with numerous methods by which the modelling could be improved. Methods for improvement suggested include structuring of the model to represent more accurately the competitive scenario of each port, constraining the choice set for each shipments from characteristics of the carrier, and the commodity.     

港口建设项目环境影响因素的确定及其危害的评价

阐述港口建设项目环境影响评价的意义,从港口水环境、港口大气环境和港口声环境3个方面分别确定港口项目影响因素,最后评价这些影响因素的危害性。所得结论可作为港口建设项目环境影响经济评价的基础。