Renegotiating PPP Contracts: Reinforcing the ‘P' in Partnership

Abstract

The issue of renegotiation is becoming increasingly important as a tool to address uncertainty of public private partnership (PPP) projects and as a mechanism to restore its economic and financial equilibrium. This paper aims to understand how and why renegotiations occur in long-lasting PPP projects and what are the pros and cons of the renegotiation. We depart from a literature review on contract incompleteness and on the determinant factors for the renegotiation of infrastructure concessions. To illustrate the discussion, the case studies of nine European PPP projects are analysed by examining the specific exogenous and endogenous determinant factors that conduce to renegotiating contracts. The implications of contractual renegotiations are explained and summarized through a comparison of our case studies with literature. Although renegotiation, per se, is not a solution for the successful implementation of PPP projects, our findings reinforce the idea of contractual flexibility as a tool that allows adapting to uncertainty. Moreover, effective communication mechanisms allow a better response to unforeseen events, reinforcing the partners’ commitment to deliver a win–win project.     

Spatial Transferability and Updating Analysis of Mode Choice Models in Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

This article examines the spatial transferability of mode choice models in developing countries. An evaluation of the updating procedure and sample size are also included in the study. Because of the insufficiency of model coefficients in explaining differences in unmeasured modal attributes, naïvely transferring a model is not recommended. An understanding of the transport characteristics in both the estimation context and the application context is required, in order to justify whether a variable is transferable or not. Four updating procedures – updating alternative specific constants (ASCs), updating ASCs and scale parameter, the combined transfer estimator and Bayesian updating associated with three sets of small sample sizes – are applied to improve transferability. In general, the first three approaches produce significant improvements. It is also proposed that a minimum small sample size of 400 observations is necessary for updating purposes.     

Measuring and enhancing the transferability of hidden Markov models for dynamic travel behavioral analysis

As an emerging dynamic modeling method that incorporates time-dependent heterogeneity, hidden Markov models (HMM) are receiving increased research attention with regards to travel behavior modeling and travel demand forecasting. This paper focuses on the model transferability of HMM. Based on a series of transferability and goodness-of-fit measures, it finds that HMMs have a superior performance in predicting future transportation mode choice, compared to conventional choice models. Aimed at further enhancing its transferability, this paper proposes a Bayesian conditional recalibration approach that maps the model prediction directly to the context data. Compared to traditional model transferring methods, the proposed approach does not assume fixed parameterization and recalibrates the utilities and the prediction directly. A comparison between the proposed approach and the traditional transfer-scaling favors our approach, with higher goodness-of-fit. This paper fills the gap in understanding the transferability of HMM and proposes a practical method that enables potential applications of HMM.

     

Risk Management in Motorway PPP Projects: Empirical-based Guidelines

Abstract

This paper deals with the topic of risk management in Public Private Partnership (PPP). The analysis of the related literature reveals that risks must be analyzed and managed on a context-specific approach, and that there is a lack of a comprehensive study on the appropriate risk mitigation strategies for each risk embedded in PPP projects. Focusing on the transport sector, based on the results of a Delphi survey, the paper provides guidelines for both public and private parties in defining a list of significant risks in PPP motorway projects, and identifying for them both the effective allocation and the suitable mitigation strategies. Results of the Delphi survey have been compared with the common practices on risk management applied in eight real motorway PPP projects.     

A tour-based model of travel mode choice

This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the best combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The households allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression.     

An assessment of the demand for new transport technology in Australia

This paper summarizes the constraints which a technological innovation in transport must satisfy if it is to achieve widespread application. The existing and likely future travel demands in Australia are reviewed, and for certain types of travel it is concluded that existing modes may become unsuitable or unacceptable. In these areas, it is possible that a new transport technology may find application. In all other areas, it is considered that existing modes, or their functional successors, will continue.

Five possible demand areas in which new transport technology may find application are identified. These are as follows:

1) High speed distribution systems may be introduced in Australian CBD's (Central Business Districts) within the next ten years. These may be progressively extended to provide radial public transport services to the CBD. It is also possible that these systems may eventually be extended to provide a dual‐mode capability in inner‐suburban areas as a partial alternative to freeway construction.

2) New town developments which may be introduced in Australia could include various forms of advanced transportation systems.

3) New aviation modes, possibly including short take off and landing aircraft operating from suburban airports may be introduced to cater for inter‐urban travel.

4) A demand‐responsive transport system to cater for the needs of the transport poor in urban areas may find limited application.

5) In the longer term, possibly by the turn of the century, an improved transport system capable of providing door‐to‐door service over the whole of an urban area and operating under a dual‐mode configuration appears to be possible. It probably would emerge from development of an incremental nature and eventually include the installation of a new technology in the then existing freeway and railway reservations in the city.     

Refining light rapid transit typology: a UK perspective

Abstract

Recent developments in the light rapid transit sector have introduced transit modes that are attempting to imitate the performance of others, e.g. buses with tram-like characteristics. The boundaries between existing definitions of what is a bus, tram or train are becoming blurred. For transport studies and practice this requires a review of how we define modes. This is not just a matter of semantics, but has safety and competition regulation implications for system operators. This paper proposes a structure to produce rail- and bus-based transit mode definitions and typology that are appropriate for modern use. A decision tree is used to classify and define the transit modes as guided-bus, trolley-bus, light rail and tram-train and is provided with example systems. The paper provides a robust definitional framework that allows transit system promoters, operators and other interested parties to have a consistent basis of reference when specifying and comparing rapid transit systems.     

The evolution and competitiveness of air cargo transportation: the case of Israel's airborne trade

Abstract

Air freight traffic has grown rapidly in the last decade. Although, in terms of volume carried, air cargo represents only a small fraction of the total trade, in value terms, its share is very significant. Against the background of the development of the world's air freight traffic and the factors behind it, this paper reviews the growth of air cargo movements in Israeli international trade and analyses the major components of this transport mode. Because of Israel's geopolitical position, air transport is a significant mode in the country's foreign trade. Air and sea transport are the only modes available for any trade going to and from Israel. The proportion of airborne trade in the total Israeli foreign trade is reviewed in light of the factors affecting the competition between air and sea transport.     

How Do Governments Support the Development of Public Private Partnerships? Measuring and Comparing PPP Governmental Support in 20 European Countries

Abstract

Taking an institutional perspective, in this article we develop an index of the governmental support for public private partnership (PPP) — a ‘PPP Governmental Support Index’ (GSI) — which aims to measure the extent to which national governments provide an institutional framework that is either conducive or preventive for the introduction and diffusion of PPPs within transport infrastructure and other sectors. First, based on a substantive review of the literature, we define the elements of the PPP GSI, including the policy and political commitment regarding PPPs, the legal and regulatory framework, and the presence/absence of dedicated PPP-supporting arrangements. Second, we calculate the PPP GSI for 20 European countries, cluster them and compare similarities and differences in national governmental support of infrastructure PPPs. Third, we explore the potential link between national institutional index scores and infrastructure PPP activity in the 20 countries. Lastly, we discuss the potential and usefulness of the presented PPP GSI, as well as methodological limitations, and elaborate on how this index might be utilised to strengthen future comparative research on PPP in transport and other sectors.     

Expansion of a Controlled Parking Zone (CPZ) and its Influence on Modal Split: The Case of Edinburgh

Abstract

This article considers the inter-relationship between on-street parking and choice of mode for journeys to work in the Scottish city of Edinburgh. This city is typical of many in that its centre has significant on-street parking controls but, beyond a radius of 1 to 1 1/2 miles (1.5 to 2.5?km) from the centre, there are no controls and commuter parking on-street is commonplace. The article reviews the relevant literature, and then considers the results of a survey undertaken of Edinburgh city centre employees in order to ascertain their parking habits and likely response to the extension of existing on-street parking controls. The article concludes that the results are transferable to other cities but that the scale of the impacts in each will be related to site specific factors, particularly the demand for residential parking space on-street in areas close to the city centre.     

Development and Impact of the Modern High‐speed Train: A Review

Abstract

The inauguration of the Shinkansen high‐speed train service between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, at 210 kph maximum operating speed some 40 years ago marked the comeback of the train as an important passenger mode of transport. Since then high‐speed train (HST) services have been introduced in many countries and are planned in many more, and the train has once more become the dominant mode of transport on many routes. This review summarizes the different elements of HST operation with the aim of characterizing HST operation and putting in context its impact in terms of what it is best designed for and what it can deliver. The review concludes that the HST is best designed to substitute conventional railway services on routes where much higher capacity is required and to reduce travel time, further improving the railway service, also against other modes, therefore leading to mode substitution. However, the high investment in HST infrastructure could not be justified based on its economic development benefits since these are not certain. Finally, the following definition for HST services is suggested: high capacity and frequency railway services achieving an average speed of over 200 kph.     

On the allocation of city space to multiple transport modes

Abstract

This paper analyzes urban multimodal transportation systems in an aggregated way. To describe the aggregate behavior of traffic in cities, use is made of an idea that is now receiving some attention: the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). We demonstrate through simulation how the MFD can be used to monitor and control a real network, in this case a portion of San Francisco, using readily available input data. We then show how different modes interact on the same network and discuss how these interactions might be incorporated into an MFD for multimodal networks. The work unveils two main results: first, it confirms recent results showing that restricting access to a city's congested areas can improve mobility for all travelers, including those who endure the restrictions; and second, that dedicating street space to collective transport modes can improve accessibility for all modes, even those from which space is taken away.     

Women’s mode and trip structure choices in daily activity-travel: a developing country perspective

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyze the travel patterns of Iranian women, where typical patriarchal views and specific social and cultural norms may differ from the patterns of those in western societies. In addition to inherent psycho-physical gender differences, women in Iran can face special constraints forcing them not to be involved in all activity-travel patterns that people in developed countries usually undertake. We pay special attention to the role of marital and employment status on women’s activity-travel patterns. To this end, we develop a joint mode and daily activity pattern (DAP) discrete choice model, which is a two-level mixed nested Logit. The upper nest of the proposed model embodies women’s DAP choices, and the lower nest belongs to the mode choices. In this paper, we try to show how different factors in a patriarchal Muslim society like Iran affect or restrict women’s type and structure of activity-travel patterns.     

Obituary - Professor Michael E. Beesley,CBE

Abstract

The French motorway network is now more than 6 000 km long, whereas it was virtually nonexistent in 1960. This paper aims at identifying and analysing the key factors, and their interplay, in the process of conception, decision and realization which led to such a transformation. We first deal with the network as a whole.

Next, we concentrate on one among the relevant factors: cost‐benefit analysis. More precisely we examine the part it has played as a means of communication and negotiation between the involved public bodies, as well as a device to enhance an image of rationality attached to the decisions made. Finally we consider a specific link, that between Orleans and Clermont‐Ferrand.     

The meaning of car availability in mode choice decisions

The paper examines various definitions of car availability that have been used in the literature, and compares the results when applied to a common data set. It argues that car availability means different things to different people depending on their licence holding/car owning status. Using in‐depth interview data, the factors determining car allocation and transferability within a household, and subsequently mode choice, are discussed. An attempt is made to draw some general conclusions for research and modelling. This suggests that different approaches are required depending on whether or not there is competition for use of the car within a household. Also that in cases of competition, mode choice is not a two‐stage process depending on car availability and trip characteristics, but a concurrent decision based on both of these factors.     

Allocating Revenue Risk in Transport Infrastructure Public Private Partnership Projects: How it Matters

Abstract

Transport infrastructure public private partnership (PPP) projects are very diverse and complex in nature not only because of their mode-specific intricacies but also because of their inherent economic characteristics that relate to the scope of involvement of the private sector in the project, the large sunk costs incurred, and ultimately, the competition to which these projects are exposed. The allocation of revenue risk is of paramount importance for the successful implementation of such projects and a sub-optimal allocation may lead to project structuring that is unnecessarily expensive and vulnerable to failure. At the same time, the revenue risk depends critically on the remuneration model used (user-based versus budget-based) and may, in turn, take the form of demand risk, counterparty risk or combinations of the two. This review explores the issues related to revenue risk allocation for transport infrastructure PPP projects. Overarching principles for the allocation of revenue risk that transcend mode-specificity are identified and compared to case studies generated in the context of the COST Action TU1001. The results show that theory and practice are divergent, leading to sub-optimal structuring and exposing projects to potential failure.     

Effects of incorporating latent and attitudinal information in mode choice models

Abstract

Hybrid choice modelling approaches allow latent variables in mode choice utility functions to be addressed. However, defining attitude and behavior as latent variables is influenced by the researcher's assumptions. Therefore, it is better to capture the effects of latent behavioral and attitudinal factors as latent variables than defining behaviors and attitudes per se. This article uses a hybrid choice model for capturing such latent effects, which will herein be referred to as modal captivity effects in commuting mode choice. Latent modal captivity refers to the unobserved and apparently unexplained attraction towards a specific mode of transportation that is resulting from latent attitude and behavior of passengers in addition to the urban transportation system. In empirical models, the latent modal captivity variables are explained as functions of different observed variables. Empirical models show significant improvement in fitting observed data as well as improved understanding of travel behavior.     

Measuring Success of PPP Transport Projects: A Cross-Case Analysis of Toll Roads

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to measure ‘overall’ success of a public private partnership (PPP) transport projects using four case studies. All four case studies are PPP toll roads from four different EU countries (UK, Spain, Portugal and Greece). The case studies have been analysed using a manual Qualitative Comparative Analysis approach. According to the paper, three different perspectives have been used to measure the success of a project, that is, project management perspective, stakeholder perspective and contract management perspective. The ‘overall’ success has then been deduced by bringing these three perspectives together as a holistic approach. The findings are presented in the form of a matrix and the final outcome of the paper shows a simple methodological approach that can be used to measure success of a PPP transport project. Since the study takes more of a qualitative approach, researcher bias and perceptions have a major role to play in the final outcome. However, to reduce ‘biasness’, quantitative measures have also been used to quantify the Key Performance Indicators and performance measures in the case studies. It is hoped that the study makes a valid contribution to the areas of transport PPPs and performance measurement.     

PPP模式下高速公路项目施工期环境保护与水土保持管理探讨

PPP工程总承包是国家现阶段正在推行的建设项目组织模式,以专业投资公司联合专业施工单位及设计院为主进行PPP工程总承包是新兴的一种探索模式。在国内环水保形势日益严峻的情况下,如何做好PPP模式下高速公路项目环水保管理工作成为新的挑战。通过张扁高速公路PPP模式的应用,从公路工程建设过程中产生环、水保问题的原因与危害着手,分别从建设单位、监理单位、施工方简单阐述了各自的环、水保管理责任以及具体的控制措施;建设单位作为环、水保工作的总组织者、总协调者的作用不容忽视,在建设单位统一布局与领导下,通过有效管理可将环、水保问题控制在可控范围,使我国的高速公路建设向着生态公路的方向发展。     

Urban walkability considering pedestrians’ perceptions of the built environment: a 10-year review and a case study in a medium-sized city in Latin America

ABSTRACT

Numerous methodologies measuring walkability have been developed over the last years. This paper reviews the Walkability Index (WI) literature of the last decade (2009–2018) and highlights some limitations in the current approaches. Only a few studies have evaluated walkability in Latin America, mainly in big cities but not in medium and small-sized cities in the region, which present their own urbanisation dynamics, security issues, sidewalk invasion problems, and poor planning. Furthermore, most WIs in the literature use objective mesoscale variables to assess walkability in a given area. This paper contributes to filling these gaps by generating new evidence from a medium-sized city in Latin America to question if characteristics of the built environment encourage walking trips, as found in the literature, are transferable among regions. The study also proposes a novel index comprised of microscale and mesoscale built environment variables to assess walkability using virtual tools and considering users’ perceptions. The WI estimation relies on ranking probability models. The results of the case study suggest that subjective Security and Traffic Safety are the most crucial factors influencing walkability in these kind of cities, which is different from what is found in the literature from cities in developed countries where Sidewalk Condition and Attractiveness are the most important factors. Security appeared to be strongly associated with a subjective dimension, represented by the fear of crime or perceived risk for crime, instead of the actual occurrence of crimes. This result evidences the importance of the physical attributes of the real world and how they are captured, judged, and processed by pedestrians. Then, regional transferability of WIs needs to be done carefully. Finally, results in this paper highlight the importance of microscale built environment characteristics in the WI formulation in these cities. Results are in line with other research in some cities of the region, which found that microscale variables such as pavement quality and presence of obstacles on the sidewalks are relevant components to promote walkability.