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1.
Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Keith Bartholomew 《Transportation》2007,34(4):397-412
Land use-transportation scenario planning has become increasingly common in regional and sub-regional planning processes.
The technique promises to provide citizens with opportunities to engage in constructive dialogue about the future of their
communities, and to serve as a basis for assertive action to direct the course of that future. This study reviews 80 scenario
planning projects from more than 50 U.S. metropolitan areas. The analysis reveals important gaps in the practice of scenario
planning—particularly in the areas of public participation, methodology, and institutional structures—and recent efforts to
address the shortcomings.
相似文献
Keith BartholomewEmail: |
2.
Simon Peter Shepherd 《Transportation》2008,35(4):559-577
Transport externalities such as costs of emissions and accidents are increasingly being used within appraisal and optimisation
frameworks alongside the more traditional congestion analysis to set optimal transport policies. Models of externalities and
costs of externalities may be implemented by a simple constant cost per vehicle-km approach or by more complex flow and speed
dependent approaches. This paper investigates the impact of using both simple and more complex models of CO2 emissions and cost of accidents on the optimal toll for car use and upon resulting welfare levels. The approach adopted is
to use a single link model with a technical approach to the representation of the speed-flow relationship as this reflects
common modelling practice. It is shown that using a more complex model of CO2 emitted increases the optimal toll significantly compared to using a fixed cost approach while reducing CO2 emitted only marginally. A number of accident models are used and the impact on tolls is shown to depend upon the assumptions
made. Where speed effects are included in the accident model, accident costs can increase compared to the no toll equilibrium
and so tolls should in this case be reduced compared to the congestion optimal toll. Finally it is shown that the effect of
adding variable CO2 emission models along with a fixed cost per vehicle-km for accidents can increase the optimal toll by 44% while increasing
the true welfare gained by only 8%. The results clearly demonstrate that model assumptions for externalities can have a significant
impact on the resulting policies and in the case of accidents the policies can be reversed.
Simon Peter Shepherd at the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. He is currently working on optimal cordon design and systems dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. 相似文献
Simon Peter ShepherdEmail: |
Simon Peter Shepherd at the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. He is currently working on optimal cordon design and systems dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. 相似文献
3.
This paper reports the results of a stated-preference study aimed at investigating how transport decisions are made by receivers
or by transport operators about the potential use of an urban freight consolidation centre in the city of Fano, Italy. Because
there are no revealed preference data, a stated-choice methodology is used. The stated-choice experiments present two alternatives—one
using a private vehicle subject to various traffic regulations and one using the urban freight consolidation centre with varying
cost and efficiency levels. Conventional discrete choice data modelling shows that the potential demand is influenced mainly
by the distance of the parking bay from the shop, by access permit cost, by the service cost of the urban freight consolidation
centre, and by the delay in delivery time. Simulations are then performed to assess how the potential demand is affected by
various incentives and regulations affecting urban goods distribution.
Edoardo Marcucci is Associate Professor of Applied Economics at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Roma Tre, Italy, General Secretary of the Italian Society of Transportation Economists, and co-founder of the Kuhmo—Nectar Conference and Summer School Series on Pricing, Financing, Regulating Transport Infrastructures and Services. He has studied freight transportation concentrating on interactions along logistic supply chains. Romeo Danielis is Full Professor at the University of Trieste, Italy. He is managing editor of European Transport\Trasporti Europei. He has published articles on input-output modelling, regional environmental policy, social costing of transport externalities, EU enlargement and on several transport issues including road pricing, the Down-Thompson paradox, energy use and CO2 emissions, freight transport demand and stated preferences. 相似文献
Edoardo MarcucciEmail: |
Edoardo Marcucci is Associate Professor of Applied Economics at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Roma Tre, Italy, General Secretary of the Italian Society of Transportation Economists, and co-founder of the Kuhmo—Nectar Conference and Summer School Series on Pricing, Financing, Regulating Transport Infrastructures and Services. He has studied freight transportation concentrating on interactions along logistic supply chains. Romeo Danielis is Full Professor at the University of Trieste, Italy. He is managing editor of European Transport\Trasporti Europei. He has published articles on input-output modelling, regional environmental policy, social costing of transport externalities, EU enlargement and on several transport issues including road pricing, the Down-Thompson paradox, energy use and CO2 emissions, freight transport demand and stated preferences. 相似文献
4.
This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy
and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting
algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The
approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw.
Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second
best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while
reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second
best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also
show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in
conjunction with investments in the network.
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
5.
Despite widespread growth in on-road public transport priority schemes, road management authorities have few tools to evaluate
the impacts of these schemes on all road users. This paper describes a methodology developed in Melbourne, Australia to assist
the road management authority, VicRoads, evaluate trade-offs in the use of its limited road-space for new bus and tram priority
projects. The approach employs traffic micro-simulation modelling to assess road-space re-allocation impacts, travel behaviour
modelling to assess changes in travel patterns and a social cost benefit framework to evaluate impacts. The evaluation considers
a comprehensive range of impacts including the environmental benefits of improved public transport services. Impacts on public
transport reliability improvements are also considered. Although improved bus and tram reliability is a major rationale for
traffic priority its use in previous evaluations is rare. The paper critiques previous approaches, describes the proposed
method and explores some of the results found in its application. A major finding is that despite a more comprehensive approach
to measuring the benefits of bus and tram priority, road-space reallocation is difficult to economically justify in road networks
where public transport usage is low and car usage high. Strategies involving the balanced deployment of bus and tram priority
measures where the allocation of time and space to PT minimises negative traffic impacts is shown to improve the overall management
of road-space. A discussion of the approach is also provided including suggestions for further methodology development.
相似文献
Bill YoungEmail: |
6.
A good air cargo terminal manpower supply plan helps terminals deal efficiently with their cargos and reduces their operating
costs. To design a good air cargo terminal manpower supply plan, a terminal has to consider not only its operating costs,
but also the uncertainty of the manpower demand in actual operations. However, most air cargo terminals in Taiwan currently
depend on staff experience with a fixed demand when establishing the manpower supply plan, which is neither effective nor
efficient. We have developed two stochastic-demand manpower supply plan models for air cargo terminals that can resolve stochastic
demands occurring in practice. The objectives of both models are to minimize the total man-hour cost, subject to the related
operating constraints. The models are formulated as integer/mixed integer linear programs. To evaluate the two stochastic-demand
models under stochastic demands, we have also developed two deterministic-demand manpower supply plan models, by suitably
modifying two stochastic-demand models, respectively, and an evaluation method. Here, we perform a case study using real operating
data from a Taiwan air cargo terminal. The preliminary results are good, showing that the models could be useful for planning
air cargo terminal manpower supply.
相似文献
Shangyao YanEmail: |
7.
The objective of this paper is to ease the planning of new toll projects by providing estimates of operating costs, and to
help us make better informed decisions about the design of toll collection systems. To do so we use panel data for Norwegian
toll companies to estimate average cost functions. The main results can be summarised as follows. We provide evidence of very
important unexploited economies of scale. The estimated cost curves are very steep for traffic levels below the sample mean,
and become almost entirely flat over a wide range above the sample mean. A higher share of vehicles using on board units will
significantly reduce average costs. Competitive tendering will significantly reduce average operating costs by as much as
25%. Our results also suggest that increased number of lanes, higher debt and passenger charging will increase average operating
costs whereas average operating costs are lower for toll cordons compared with other projects.
相似文献
Morten WeldeEmail: |
8.
This paper analyzes transportation mode choice for short home-based trips using a 1999 activity survey from the Puget Sound
region of Washington State, U.S.A. Short trips are defined as those within the 95th percentile walking distance in the data,
here 1.40 miles (2.25 km). The mean walking distance was 0.4 miles (0.6 km). The mode distribution was automobile (75%), walk
(23%), bicycle (1%), and bus (1%). Walk and bicycle are found less likely as the individual’s age increases. People are more
likely to drive if they can or are accustomed to. People in multi-person families are less likely to walk or use bus, especially
families with children. An environment that attracts people’s interest and provides activity opportunities encourages people
to walk on short trips. Influencing people’s choice of transport mode on short trips should be an important part of efforts
encouraging the use of non-automobile alternatives.
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Gudmundur F. UlfarssonEmail: |
9.
This paper proposes an innovative approach for designing a road user charging scheme to meet multiple policy objectives. Three
practical features are integrated into the design methodology including (i) cordon formation, (ii) a set of design constraints,
and (iii) multiple objectives of the scheme. The methods also consider possible responses of road travellers to the charging
scheme. Two methods based on genetic algorithms (GA) are developed for optimising a charging cordon scheme with constraints
and with multiple objectives. The dynamic self-adaptive penalty GA and Non-dominated Sorting GA II (NSGA-II) are applied to
the constrained design and multi-objective design respectively. The objective functions or constraints considered include
social welfare improvement, revenue generation, and distributional equity impact. A case study of the City of Edinburgh is
presented and common characteristics of charging cordon designs which perform well against the three objectives are discussed.
相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
10.
Singapore motorisation restraint and its implications on travel behaviour and urban sustainability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Piotr S. Olszewski 《Transportation》2007,34(3):319-335
The example of Singapore shows that rapid urban and economic growth does not have to bring traffic congestion and pollution.
Singapore has chosen to restrain car traffic demand due to its limited land supply. Transport policy based on balanced development
of road and transit infrastructure and restraint of traffic has been consistently implemented for the past 30 years. Combined
with land use planning, it resulted in a modern transport system, which is free from major congestion and provides users with
different travel alternatives. As the economic growth caused a substantial increase in demand for cars, several pricing policies
were introduced with the aim of restraining car ownership and usage. Growth of the vehicle population is now controlled and
potentially congested roads are subject to road pricing. These measures help to keep the roads free from major congestion,
maintain car share of work trips below 25% and keep the transport energy usage low. Although Singapore conditions are in many
aspects unique, its travel demand experience can provide useful lessons for other rapidly growing cities in Asia.
相似文献
Piotr S. OlszewskiEmail: |
11.
Clarke Wilson 《Transportation》2008,35(4):485-499
Daily activity diaries can be recorded as sequences of characters representing events and their contexts as they unfold during
the day. Dynamic programming algorithms as used in bioinformatics have been used by a number of researchers to measure the
similarities and differences between travel patterns on the basis of temporal sequencing of events, activity transition, and
total activity time. The resultant similarity matrices have been shown to be more effective in classifying sequential patterns
than classifications based on alternative similarity indices. The basic algorithms can be amended to include the geographic
coordinates of events by a suitable amendment to the definition of distance. This permits quantitative classification of Hagerstrand-type
activity trajectories on the basis of both activity and spatial similarity. Such a classification can be used to group similar
trajectories and to identify representative trajectories that are analogous to measures of central tendency in univariate
statistics, giving more concrete meaning to the concept of the activity pattern than any other method now available. The paper
illustrates the effect of considering both events and locations in the classification of daily activity patterns using activity
diary data gathered in the town of Reading. The algorithm has been implemented in the Clustal_TXY alignment software package.
相似文献
Clarke WilsonEmail: |
12.
Konstantinos G. Zografos Konstantinos N. Androutsopoulos Teemu Sihvola 《Transportation》2008,35(6):777-795
Flexible transport services include a wide range of demand responsive transport systems that provide non-conventional passenger
and freight transportation services. Several alternative business models varying according to the local market conditions,
the socio-economic, legal, and institutional framework may be developed for the provision of Flexible Transport Systems (FTS).
The objective of this paper is twofold: first to present an integrated methodological framework for developing and assessing
alternative FTS business models and second to demonstrate its applicability to a case study regarding the prioritization of
alternative FTS business models for the provision of flexible passenger transport services in Helsinki.
相似文献
Teemu SihvolaEmail: |
13.
The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2
A longstanding question within the field of transportation demand management is the strength of the relationship between urban
form and mobility behavior. Although several studies have identified a strong correlation between these variables, there is
as yet scant evidence to support policy interventions that target land use as a means of influencing travel. To the contrary,
some of the more recent research has cast skepticism on the proposition that the relationship is causative, recognizing the
possibility that households endogenously self-select themselves into communities that support their preferences for particular
transportation modes. Focusing on individual automobile travel, the present study seeks to contribute to this line of inquiry
by estimating econometric models on a panel of travel-diary data collected in Germany between 1996 and 2003. Specifically,
we employ the two-part model (2PM)—a procedure involving probit and OLS estimators—to assess the determinants of the discrete
decision to use the car and the continuous decision of distance traveled. Beyond modeling variables that capture the urban
form features that are commonly suggested to influence mobility behavior, including mixed use and public transit, this study
employs instrumental variables to control for potential endogeneity emerging from the simultaneity of residential and mode
choices. Unlike much of the work to date, our results suggest that urban form has a causative impact on car use, a finding
that is robust to alternative econometric specifications.
相似文献
Ralf HedelEmail: |
14.
Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings.
This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along
with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal
survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for
interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market
or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the
reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides
a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing
freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness
to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.
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Andrew CollinsEmail: |
15.
Gerard de Jong Andrew Daly Marits Pieters Stephen Miller Ronald Plasmeijer Frank Hofman 《Transportation》2007,34(4):375-395
This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts
for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related
measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are
treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty
in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.
相似文献
Gerard de JongEmail: |
16.
Dongjoo Park Laurence R. Rilett Byron J. Gajewski Clifford H. Spiegelman Changho Choi 《Transportation》2009,36(1):77-95
With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers
have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current
conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal
aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route
travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology
explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed
for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation
size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor,
(2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel
time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston,
Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It
was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.
相似文献
Changho ChoiEmail: |
17.
Children’s mode choice for the school trip: the role of distance and school location in walking to school 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Noreen C. McDonald 《Transportation》2008,35(1):23-35
Rising levels of childhood obesity in the United States and a 75% decline in the proportion of children walking to school
in the past 30 years have focused attention on school travel. This paper uses data from the US Department of Transportation’s
2001 National Household Travel Survey to analyze the factors affecting mode choice for elementary and middle school children.
The analysis shows that walk travel time is the most policy-relevant factor affecting the decision to walk to school with
an estimated direct elasticity of −0.75. If policymakers want to increase walking rates, these findings suggest that current
policies, such as Safe Routes to School, which do not affect the spatial distribution of schools and residences will not be
enough to change travel behavior. The final part of the paper uses the mode choice model to test how a land use strategy—community
schools—might affect walking to school. The results show that community schools have the potential to increase walking rates
but would require large changes from current land use, school, and transportation planning practices.
Noreen C. McDonald is an Assistant Professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her research focuses on how the environment affects children’s travel behavior. 相似文献
Noreen C. McDonaldEmail: |
Noreen C. McDonald is an Assistant Professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her research focuses on how the environment affects children’s travel behavior. 相似文献
18.
Toshiyuki Yamamoto 《Transportation》2009,36(3):351-366
The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing
simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan
and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area
significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan
area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while
higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between
the two areas.
相似文献
Toshiyuki YamamotoEmail: |
19.
A hybrid model of fuzzy and AHP for handling public assessments on transportation projects 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Turan Arslan 《Transportation》2009,36(1):97-112
Having an effective public participation in transportation planning and project development processes has been a major concern
for developed countries. In the United States, for instance, all state Departments of Transportation are subject to the Transportation
Equity Act (TEA-21) that formally requires public involvement in transportation planning. Since transportation planning involves
public resources and values, judgments by the public should play a key role in determining final decisions. Therefore, all
these agencies are required not only to disseminate information to the public, but also to solicit and consider public opinion
in forming transportation policy. This work presents a decision support model, with public involvement and public oversight,
to help policy makers select appropriate transportation projects for implementation. Since focus groups will face multiple
objectives and inexact information in the process, a hybrid model of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is
proposed. A set of ‘if–then’ rules based on Weber’s psycho-physical law of 1834 is presented to reason from fuzzy numbers
to capture essential subjective preferences, pairwise, among the alternatives. The AHP is then incorporated to estimate preference
allotments among alternatives. An example application of the suggested method is provided seeking public approval of an appropriate
public bus transportation system choosing between one run by municipal authorities and one run by private agencies to show
how this procedure works.
相似文献
Turan ArslanEmail: |
20.
Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can
be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature,
but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current
paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among
the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation
and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.
Yaron Hollander is a transport analyst, working for Steer Davies Gleave in London. His work combines advanced demand modelling, Stated Preference, appraisal, design of public transport systems, transport policy and network modelling. He completed his PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies in Leeds, and previously worked for the Technion – Israel Institute for Technology; for the Israeli Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Ronghui Liu is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. Her main research interests are modelling of traffic and microsimulation of driver behaviour and dynamical systems. She develops and applies network microsimulation models to a wide range of areas from transport policy instruments such as road pricing, to public transport operations and traffic signal controls. 相似文献
Ronghui LiuEmail: |
Yaron Hollander is a transport analyst, working for Steer Davies Gleave in London. His work combines advanced demand modelling, Stated Preference, appraisal, design of public transport systems, transport policy and network modelling. He completed his PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies in Leeds, and previously worked for the Technion – Israel Institute for Technology; for the Israeli Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Ronghui Liu is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. Her main research interests are modelling of traffic and microsimulation of driver behaviour and dynamical systems. She develops and applies network microsimulation models to a wide range of areas from transport policy instruments such as road pricing, to public transport operations and traffic signal controls. 相似文献