Global warming and severe weather activity

The concentration of atmospheric CO₂ has been significantly increasing mainly due to human consumption of fossil fuels since the middle of the 18th century. Although the recent increases of CO₂ could possibly give rise to some warming, serious problems remain unresolved in relation to the concept of global warming. The focus of this paper is directed at two areas: the first is the credibility of the global warming prediction, and the second is the long-term trend in severe weather activity associated with global warming. The global warming during the last century has been confirmed by observational data. The magnitude of the warming averaged globally is about 0.6°C during the last century, and is consistent with the computed increase in CO₂ concentration. The observational data indicate a large degree of hemispheric asymmetry; the warming of the Northern Hemisphere is slower and sometimes temporarily interrupted comparing with that of Southern Hemisphere. It is an open question why this hemispherical asymmetry is of opposite sense to the results of numerical simulations for the increases in CO₂ concentration. This question may possibly be resolved by consideration of the climatic effects of increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels in the troposphere in addition to greenhouse gas effects. One question raised by global warming is whether the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have shown a long-term increased in association with global warming. Since extreme weather such as torrential rainfall and tropical cyclones are relatively small-scale, short-lived phenomena, they cannot be successfully simulated using general circulation models (GCM) at the present time. Furthermore, the limited period of the available observational data makes it difficult to produce any meaningful results with conventional statistical methods. A new statistical method, which was proposed by the present author and a colleague, is applied to the maximum daily precipitation data, and significant evidence is found for an interdecadal increasing trend in the intensity of extremely heavy rainfall. It is argued that the most likely cause of this trend is global warming. With regard to the relation between global warming and tropical cyclone activity, no significant results have yet been obtained either by numerical simulation or statistical analysis of historical data. Recent research analyzing historical data on the relation between tropical cyclone intensity and sea surface temperature has emphasized that the warmer sea surface accompanied by global warming could increase the maximum possible intensity of cyclones, although no appreciable change would be seen in the average intensity of regular storms. Presented at the International Conference on Technologies for Marine Environment Preservation (MARIENV’95), Tokyo, Japan, September 24–29, 1995.     

中国航运风雨崛起

1949年5月27日,上海解放. 平日里熙熙攘攘的码头,这时只剩下黄埔江里歪歪扭扭漂浮着的几艘遭到严重破坏的船只.码头上空依稀飘荡着败兵南下登船时的声声叫嚷,以及被挟持船长开船时对家园最后的深情回望……这是中国航运遭遇的一次浩劫.也就是在这种艰难境况和悲壮氛围下,新中国航运业拉开了走向辉煌的序幕.     

基于WebGis的气象预报信息系统

简要介绍了WebGIS的构建理论。主要分析了基于WebGIS在气象预报中的应用技术,初步设计了该信息系统的基本框架及其主页面的功能模块,并介绍了各个模块的主要功能。此系统的设计为更好地掌握气象信息提供了有效手段。     

空间天气对导航卫星的影响

简要介绍了空间天气的基本概念,对灾害性空间天气可能对导航卫星所产生的主要影响进行了探索;进而着重分析了电离层电子密度、电离层暴、电离层突然骚扰等空间天气要素对卫星导航定位系统的影响。     

美国海上传真天气图的解读与应用

对美国海洋预报中心提供的海上传真天气图的内容、习用格式等进行分析和解读,提出利用气象传真图进行航线天气预报的方法,为海上船舶正确识读和应用该国发布的传真天气图提供指导。     

关于IMO完整稳性要求中气象衡准探讨

介绍IMO完整稳性衡准中气象衡准评估方法及程序，以及通过模型实验办法的替代程序，并对两种方法进行对比分析。     

恶劣气象环境下的船舶编队自动导航方法研究

海上交通的繁忙,使传统的雷达设备已很难完成恶劣环境下船舶的自动导航任务。为此,本文结合雷达设备和船舶自动识别系统,实现两者优势互补,更好的为船舶安全提供保证。首先比较雷达和自动识别系统各自的优缺点,接着提出二者信息融合的模型,重点对数据融合中涉及的坐标变换、时间配准、数据关联进行方法介绍。最后提出融合模型下步有待研究的方向。     

Sail-assisted motor vessels weather routing using a fuzzy logic model

In this study sail-assisted motor vessels weather routing is investigated to establish the most economical route by applying available information of the ship's behavior regarding the encountered sea-conditions. To derive the vessel’s fuel use on a route, a fuzzy logic model is constructed through an automated identification process. Only data collected from actual integrated bridge measurements systems is used. Fuzzy modeling is a framework providing a flexible and transparent mathematical structure to describe the physical relationships in a vessel's behavior. This consumption model is integrated into a determinist weather-routing optimization workflow based on a systematic meshing scheme of the sailing area. Pareto-optimization with a multi-objective genetic algorithm is used to maximize fuel economy in a limited or optimum time. The benefits of the developed decision helping tool in sail-assisted motor vessel routing are highlighted on a westbound north Transatlantic journey.     

面向用户的海洋天气信息服务系统的设计与研究

扩大和利用海洋天气监测数据对海洋环境监测、海洋产业发展、海洋灾害预防等海洋相关的活动具有重要意义。当前开发的海洋天气信息服务系统通常仅供专业机构或企业使用,而并未对个人开放。为解决这一问题,本文提出一种面向用户的海洋天气信息服务系统。该服务系统可以将自动识别系统(AIS)的信息显示在电子海图(ENC)上,并能够提供多种类别信息,如航道标记、日出、日落、低潮、高潮等,并在电子海图上通知和显示。通过互联网和移动设备使用用户的位置信息,该系统可以为用户定制个性化的信息服务,使得海洋天气信息服务系统不仅能够应用在工业领域,同时也能为个人的日常生活提供便利和保障。     

Development of a novel forward dynamic programming method for weather routing

This paper presents a novel forward dynamic programming method for weather routing to minimise ship fuel consumption during a voyage. Compared with traditional weather routing methods which only optimise the ship’s heading, while the engine power or propeller rotation speed is set as a constant throughout the voyage, this new method considers both the ship power settings and heading controls. A float state technique is used to reduce the iterations required during optimisation and thus save computation time. This new method could lead to quasi-global optimal routing in comparison with the traditional weather routing methods.     

恶劣天气下多战舰联合通信信号的增强方法

多战舰联合通信信号易受到恶劣天气影响,导致信号质量下降,影响了信息传输的准确性。为此,提出一种恶劣天气下多战舰联合通信信号的增强方法。该方法分为两部分进行:第1部分利用EMD和小波阈值结合的方法进行通信信号中噪声消除;第2部分通过改进的差分相干累积算法捕捉微弱信号,然后利用功率放大器补偿。结果表明,与3种前人研究方法相比,应用本文方法信噪比较大,信号中信息完整度更高,证明本方法的增强效果更好。     

一种基于物联网的海上气象传输系统设计

在海洋航运业中,对气候变化的准确快速获取是保证其安全行驶的关键要素之一。海洋气候具有变化速度快﹑气温不稳定的特性,对其信息的准确高精度采集及有效传输是海上气象系统的重要研究方向。本文分析了近年来热门的物联网技术,将无线传输器与传感网络(WSN)应用到海面气象传输系统的设计中。最后对气象传输系统中的无线路由算法(LEACH)进行了分析及优化。最后通过仿真实验得到优化后的海上气象传输系统的性能有较大的提升。     

基于传真天气图的舰船防台风决策辅助系统

针对台风对舰船航行等活动的影响,开发了用于舰船防台风指挥的防台风决策辅助系统数字化应用平台。使航海人员可快速标绘舰船和台风在传真图上的位置,精确推算舰船与台风中心距离以及根据舰船、台风移向移速绘算何时舰船将受台风何威胁范围影响,并进行仿真动画推演,帮助舰船指挥人员修改和制定安全的计划航线。     

恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统设计

由于传统的恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统无法消除恶劣环境对信号产生的噪声,导致其存在信号质量差的缺点,为此设计一种恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统。通过信号感应模块、信号处理模块和信号汇总模块,搭建恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统总体架构;通过GPS接收机、数字方位仪、电子罗盘、信号放大器、滤波器、PCI采集卡和和工控机,完成系统硬件设计;通过放大信号,采用滤波算法消除噪声影响,将船舶动态导航信息传输至信息汇总程序中,完成系统软件设计,至此完成恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统。通过对比实验,与传统的恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统作比较,实验结果表明,提出的恶劣天气船舶动态导航信息采集系统的信噪比更高。     

琼州海峡船舶雾航安全管理

船舶在雾中航行,由于能见度低,瞭望、定位困难,极易发生海上交通事故,造成人员、船舶的经济损失及海洋环境的污染。据统计,在雾航中发生的船舶碰撞事故占整个海上碰撞事故总数的70%以上,因此,对雾航安全的研究一直是航运界关注的重点。琼州海峡位于海南岛与雷州半岛之间,是我国南海沟通北部湾和华南沿海的一个主要海峡通道,同时也     

极端天气下船舶电力负荷自动调控系统设计

在极端天气条件下,正常航行的船舶,不能根据电荷负载情况,完成电力系统的自动调节控制。为解决此问题,设计极端天气下船舶电力负荷自动调控系统。通过监控电路设计、主控制器模块设计,完成系统硬件设计。通过程序架构设计、嵌入式TCP/IP协议栈设计、高速串行通信接口,完成系统软件设计。模拟系统运行环境,设计对比实验结果表明,应用极端天气下船舶电力负荷自动调控系统后,可在最短时间内,完成电荷负载情况检测,实现电力系统的自动调节控制,达到节省总耗电量的目的。     

渤海区域冬季一次大雾天气过程分析

文章分析了2010年1月16-19日华北、黄淮和长江下游地区和渤海区域的大雾天气产生的天气背景及其形成的温湿条件和大气层结特征。结果表明：这次大雾天气属于典型的平流雾。最后总结探讨19日发生在渤海的是一次典型的大雾天气模型,在18日预报19日大雾的可预报性是比较高的,为今后的类似大雾天气提供预报参考。     

天津滨海新区一次风暴潮天气过程分析

从天气形势、影响系统并结合雷达资料和水文资料对2003年10月11日天津滨海新区发生的暴雨、风暴潮天气过程进行分析，得出贝湖强冷空气东移南下，与地面倒槽并存，产生持续的偏东大风，再赶上天文大潮日，有可能造成暴雨、灾害性大风、风暴潮灾害性天气。     

大风气象条件下三峡枢纽过闸船舶通航条件

做好极端天气通航条件研究,是保障三峡枢纽通航及运行安全的重要基础。通过观测大风气象条件下船舶通航原型,归纳了6级以上大风条件下近坝水域的航道适航性能,即不同航段风力场、风速、风向与避风区分布规律;通过数值模拟耐波性关键指标,即船舶遇风风压倾侧力矩与风压复原力矩对比值,归纳了不同类型船舶的适航性能及抗风能力差异性。计算结果表明:三峡船闸上引航道在其连接段水域出现6级以上大风时,船闸及引航道水域风力可能小于6级;因风向与引航道轴线夹角小,进出闸船舶受大风影响也较小;在近坝其他水域因大风禁航时,船闸及引航道封闭式、控制性通航是可行的。研究结论为三峡通航机构积极解决大风气象条件下应急通航难题提供了依据。