A simultaneous route-level transit patronage model: demand,supply, and inter-route relationship

In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning.     

Ridership estimation procedure for a transit corridor with new bus rapid transit service

Ridership estimation is a critical step in the planning of a new transit route or change in service. Very often, when a new transit route is introduced, the existing routes will be modified, vehicle capacities changed, or service headways adjusted. This has made ridership forecasts for the new, existing, and modified routes challenging. This paper proposes and demonstrates a procedure that forecasts the ridership of all transit routes along a corridor when a new bus rapid transit (BRT) service is introduced and existing regular bus services are adjusted. The procedure uses demographic data along the corridor, a recent origin–destination survey data, and new and existing transit service features as inputs. It consists of two stages of transit assignment. In the first stage, a transit assignment is performed with the existing transit demand on the proposed BRT and existing bus routes, so that adjustments to the existing bus services can be identified. This transit assignment is performed iteratively until there is no adjustment in transit services. In the second stage, the transit assignment is carried out with the new BRT and adjusted regular bus services, but incorporates a potential growth in ridership because of the new BRT service. The final outputs of the procedure are ridership for all routes and route segments, boarding and alighting volumes at all stops, and a stop‐by‐stop trip matrix. The proposed ridership estimation procedure is applicable to a new BRT route with and without competing regular bus routes and with BRT vehicles traveling in dedicated lanes or in mixed traffic. The application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated via a case study along the Alameda Corridor in El Paso, Texas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-commitment bias in public opinion on transit usage

Estimation of ridership on a new transit system in an area where no comparable service existed before is a difficult task of transit planning. Traditional modal split models cannot be used in these cases, because no data or basis for developing a new model or adjusting a “borrowed” model are available. One of the techniques which can be used in this type of situation, is to perform a “concept test” based on public opinion. This approach, however, is plagued with the phenomenon of non-commitment bias of interviewees, and tends to overestimate the ridership. A new fixed route and fixed schedule transit service in Johnson City in Tennessee provided a rare opportunity to perform an investigation on the non-commitment bias through “before” and “after” surveys. The analysis of the non-commitment and actual responses of a sample of residents revealed substantial bias. Overall, the non-commitment ridership estimate was about twice (100% greater than) the actual ridership.:It was also observed that the bias was higher for persons owning automobiles, and for work and shopping trips.     

Timetable-based operation in urban transport: Run-time optimisation and improvements in the operating process

Urban public transit provides an efficient means of mobility and helps support social development and environmental preservation. To avoid loss of ridership, transit authorities have focussed on improving the punctuality of routes that operate using timetables. This paper presents a new approach to generating run-time values that is based on analytical development and micro simulations. The work utilizes previous research (described herein) and the experience acquired by Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona (TMB) in operating bus routes based on timetables. Using a sample of historical data, the method used for generating run-time values consists of the following steps: purging and screening atypical trips, based on the consideration of confidence intervals for median trips; segmenting the day into time bands based on the introduction of a new hierarchical classification algorithm; creating initial run-time values based on criteria derived from statistical analysis; adjusting and validating initial run-time values using micro simulations; and evaluating incident-recovery times at the end of trips in order to guarantee the punctual departure of the next trip in the vehicle schedule. To favour service improvement, we also introduced certain indicators that can identify the root causes of non-compliance. As a final step, in order to ensure the applicability and use of the model, we promoted the development of our model within the framework of the HASTUS™ software solution.     

Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

Transit passenger response: Short and long term elasticities using time series analysis

This paper investigates the effects of price and service changes on transit ridership. The concept of elasticity is introduced and the traditional methods for estimating elasticities are discussed. In this paper an extra dimension is added by investigating short and long term elasticities. Time series analysis, developed by Box and Jenkins is chosen for the analysis. The Box and Jenkins methodology is applied to a monthly time series of average weekday ridership on the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) rail system. Four categories of explanatory variables are investigated: fare on the CTA rail system, service provided on the CTA rail system, cost of car trips and weather effects. The effects of gas prices and rail service were found to be significant; however the results indicate a twelve month delay before service changes influence ridership. The effect of transit fares was found to be insignificant, indicating that both the short and long term fare elasticities are zero.     

Optimizing fare and headway to facilitate timed transfer considering demand elasticity

Fare and service frequency significantly affect transit users’ willingness to ride, as well as the supplier's revenue and operating costs. To stimulate demand and increase productivity, it is desirable to reduce the transfer time from one route to another via efficient service coordination, such as timed transfer. Since demand varies both temporally and spatially, it may not be cost-effective to synchronize vehicle arrivals on all connecting routes at a terminal. In this paper, we develop a schedule coordination model to optimize fare and headway considering demand elasticity. The headway of each route is treated as an integer-multiple of a base common headway. A discounted (reduced) fare is applied as an incentive to encourage ridership and, thus, stimulate public transit usage. The objective of the proposed coordination model is used to maximize the total profit subject to the service constraint. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the optimized fare and headway may be carefully applied to yield the maximum profit. The relationship between the decision variables and model parameters is explored in the sensitivity analysis.     

A comparison of accuracy and cost of attribute data in analysis of transit service areas using GIS

User oriented transit service is designed to meet the particular needs of a selected group of travelers. Transit Routes are located to provide convenient linkages between user's origin and destination in such a way that out-of-vehicle time, such as access and transfer time, is minimized. Planning transit routes requires understanding demographics, land use and travel patterns in an area. The dynamic nature of these systems necessitates regular review and analysis to insure that the transit system continues to meet the needs of the area it serves. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide a flexible framework for planning and analyzing transit routes and stops. Socioeconomic, demographic, housing, land use, and traffic data may be modeled in a GIS to identify efficient and effective corridors to locate routes. Part of the route location and analysis problem requires estimating population within the service area of a route. A route's service area is defined using walking distance or travel time. The problem of identifying service areas for park and ride or auto/bus users is not considered here, but assumed analogous to walk/bus trips. This paper investigates the accuracy and costs associated with the use of different attribute data bases to perform service area analysis for transit routes using GIS. A case study is performed for Logan, Utah, where a new fixed route service is operated. The case study illustrates the use of census data, postal data, data collected from aerial photographs, and data collected during a field survey using the network area analysis technique for transit service area analysis. This comparison allows us to describe the amount of error introduced by various spatial modeling techniques of data bases representing a variety of aggregation levels.     

Unlimited Access

Universities and public transit agencies have together invented an arrangement – called Unlimited Access – that provides fare-free transit service for over 825,000 people. The university typically pays the transit agency an annual lump sum based on expected student ridership, and students simply show their university identification to board the bus. This paper reports the results of a survey of Unlimited Access programs at 35 universities. University officials report that Unlimited Access reduces parking demand, increases students' access to the campus, helps to recruit and retain students, and reduces the cost of attending college. Transit agencies report that Unlimited Access increases ridership, fills empty seats, improves transit service, and reduces the operating cost per rider. Increases in student transit ridership ranged from 71 percent to 200 percent during the first year of Unlimited Access, and growth in subsequent years ranged from 2 percent to 10 percent per year. The universities' average cost for Unlimited Access is $30 per student per year.     

Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers

This paper summarizes and updates the findings from an earlier study by the same authors of transit systems in Houston (all bus) and San Diego (bus and light rail). Both systems achieved unusually large increases in transit ridership during a period in which most transit systems in other metropolitan areas were experiencing large losses. Based on ridership models estimated using cross section and time series data, the paper quantifies the relative contributions of policy variables and factors beyond the control of transit operators on ridership growth. It is found that large ridership increases in both areas are caused principally by large service increases and fare reductions, as well as metropolitan employment and population growth. In addition, the paper provides careful estimates of total and operating costs per passenger boarding and per passenger mile for Houston's bus operator and San Diego's bus and light rail operators. These estimates suggest that the bus systems are more cost-effective than the light rail system on the basis of total costs. Finally, the paper carries out a series of policy simulations to analyze the effects of transit funding levels and metropolitan development patterns on transit ridership and farebox recovery ratio.     

Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels

Improving the reliability of bus service has the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transit to current and prospective riders. An understanding of service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. However, few studies have been conducted analyzing bus reliability in the metropolis of China. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of service reliability based on bus operational characteristics in Beijing. Three performance parameters, punctuality index based on routes (PIR), deviation index based on stops (DIS), and evenness index based on stops (EIS), are proposed for the evaluation of bus service reliability. Reliability involves routes, stops, punctuality, deviation, and evenness. The relationship among the three parameters is discussed using a numerical example. Subsequently, through a sampling survey of bus lines in Beijing, service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels are estimated. The effects of route length, headway, the distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the use of exclusive bus lanes are also analyzed. The results indicate low service reliability for buses in Beijing and a high correlation between service reliability and route length, headway, distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the provision of exclusive bus lanes.     

Impact of weather on urban transit ridership

Utilizing daily ridership data, literature has shown that adverse weather conditions have a negative impact on transit ridership and in turn, result in revenue loss for the transit agencies. This paper extends this discussion by using more detailed hourly ridership data to model the weather effects. For this purpose, the daily and hourly subway ridership from New York City Transit for the years 2010–2011 is utilized. The paper compares the weather impacts on ridership based on day of week and time of day combinations and further demonstrates that the weather’s impact on transit ridership varies based on the time period and location. The separation of ridership models based on time of day provides a deeper understanding of the relationship between trip purpose and weather for transit riders. The paper investigates the role of station characteristics such as weather protection, accessibility, proximity and the connecting bus services by developing models based on station types. The findings indicate substantial differences in the extent to which the daily and hourly models and the individual weather elements are able to explain the ridership variability and travel behavior of transit riders. By utilizing the time of day and station based models, the paper demonstrates the potential sources of weather impact on transit infrastructure, transit service and trip characteristics. The results suggest the development of specific policy measures which can help the transit agencies to mitigate the ridership differences due to adverse weather conditions.     

Efficiency of the public and private bus transport sectors in Sri Lanka

The public and private bus sectors are in direct competition in most bus routes in Sri Lanka. Consequently, Sri Lanka is an ideal location to study their relative efficiencies. Five dimensions of transit performance are analyzed for comparing the relative efficiencies of the two sectors: cost efficiency, labour efficiency, input efficiency, revenue generation and safety. Productivity ratios are utilized for measuring the dimensions of transit performance. The productivity ratios for cost efficiency, labour efficiency in terms of total staff, input efficiency, revenue generation and safety in terms of accidents per bus showed the private bus transport sector to be more efficient than the public bus transport sector.     

Integrating geographic information systems into transit ridership forecast models

Researchers have produced sophisticated modal split and transit demand models, including forecasts that are sensitive to the level of service. However, little effort has been made to integrate these models into corridor studies and route alignment analyses since (a) re-routing is itself an extremely complex modeling task, and (b) the results of the demand models are presented in tabular form with no facility to visualize spatial patterns and relationships that, if recognized, would aid in the routing tasks. GIS tools can be used, together with the demand models, to identify both clusters of city blocks that house families with certain socioeconomic characteristics and potential trip destinations conducive to transit use. In other words, GIS tools can be used to better measure some of the factors that are needed by transit demand models. The results of these models can be displayed graphically, enabling analysts to target places needing improved service, evaluate route re-alignment alternatives, and operate more efficient and effective bus lines. This paper examines how a particular class of model used by transit agencies for estimating ridership can be integrated with GIS tools in order to facilitate such analyses. It also explores the effects of visualization of routes, demographics, and employment data on the process of designing route alignments with better targeting of high transit ridership areas. This paper is part of a research project sponsored by the Region One University Transportation Center, at MIT.     

The asymmetric effects of gasoline prices on public transportation use in Taiwan

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of gasoline prices on public transportation use in Taiwan. The empirical results obtained are as follows. First, we verify that gasoline price is an important determinant of transit demand. Gasoline prices have significantly positive effects on bus and mass rapid transit (MRT) use. Second, MRT ridership is more sensitive than bus and railway ridership to gasoline price and income. In the face of oil prices escalation and economic growth, the MRT system should have higher priority in public transportation planning. Third, the effects of gasoline prices on bus and MRT use are asymmetric. Bus and MRT use increases faster when gasoline prices rise than it decreases when gasoline prices fall. The transit agencies should adjust operating strategies faster in the rising of oil prices than in the falling of oil prices. It is important for transit planning to use oil prices as signals and increase the flexibility of operation in dealing with the changes in ridership. Some strategies, such as enhancing the availability of transfer information and updating transit information timely, are helpful to move passengers efficiently.     

An analysis of public bus transit performance in Indian cities

Maintaining and enhancing public transit service in Indian cities is important, to meet rapidly growing mass mobility needs, and curb personal motor vehicle activity and its impacts at low cost. Indian cities rely predominantly on buses for public transport, and are likely to continue to do so for years. However, the public bus transit service is inadequate, and unaffordable for the urban poor. The paper explores the factors that contribute to and affect efforts to improve this situation, based on an analysis of the financial and operational performance of the public bus transit service in the four metropolitan centres and four secondary cities during the 1990s. Overall, there were persistent losses, owing to increasing input costs and declining productivity. The losses occurred despite rapidly increasing fares, and ridership declined. The situation, and the ability to address it, is worse in the secondary cities than the metropolitan centres. We suggest a disaggregated approach based on the needs and motivations of different groups in relation to public transit, along with improved operating conditions and policies to internalize costs of personal motor vehicle use, to address the challenge of providing financially viable and affordable public bus transit service.     

Optimization of Fare Structure and Service Frequency for Maximum Profitability of Transit Systems

Abstract

Providing efficient public transportation has been recognized as a potential way of alleviating congestion, improving mobility, mitigating air pollution, and reducing energy consumption. Many people use public transportation systems for their daily commute, while others use different transportation modes (e.g. cars, taxis, carpools, etc.). Inexpensive fares with good transit service encourages ridership, and the resulting revenue may be used to provide better service. Optimization of transit service frequency and its associated fare structure is desirable in order to increase revenue at reasonable transit operating expenditure. The objective of the study reported here is to maximize profit subject to service capacity constraint, while elastic demand is considered. The solution methodology is developed and applied to solve the profit maximization problem in a case study based on Newark, NJ, USA. Numerical results, including optimal solutions and sensitivity analyses, are presented. It is found that an optimal temporal headway and differential fare structure that maximizes total profit for the studied subway system can be efficiently solved.     

Short-term post-earthquake bus transit planning in Managua

In December 1972 an earthquake hit Managua, Nicaragua, killing 5,000 inhabitants, while wounding 20,000 persons and destroying its core area of 13 square kilometers. The earthquake also seriously disrupted the bus transit system. Bus transit patronage fell as a result of the loss of population of 144,000 persons who moved temporarily out of the city, while costs rose appreciably as both round trip bus distances and the proportion of the trips on unpaved roads doubled with respect to pre-earthquake levels. By September 1973, ten of the thirteen bus companies were on the verge of bankruptcy and were demanding from the regulatory body stiff increases in fares.This paper presents analyses and recommendations for improving the short-term efficiency of bus routes in Managua by applying planning techniques suited to the data availability problems of developing countries.In view of the lack of cost data for the bus routes, a cost analysis was conducted; Jan de Weille's cost factors were adapted to Nicaragua to portray the near bankrupt condition of most routes. These cost factors were verified by means of selected interviews with the private transit entrepreneurs.Next, a simple patronage prediction model was developed which related patronage for a route to the population and employment served by the route. This simple patronage model was then applied to redesign the bus routes of Managua. A policy of bus route redesign coupled with the paving of city streets along the bus routes is shown to have sufficed in avoiding fare increases. Finally, the paper reviews the bus transit regulatory setting and develops some recommendations for its improvement.Adjunct Associate Professor of the Catholic University of America. This study was conducted while the author was stationed in Nicaragua as a consultant to Harvard Development Advisory Service.