船体结构腐蚀模型对检测及维修规划的影响

提出了基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测及维修的基本理论框架.最优的检测及维修,是在保证结构在设计工作寿命内的可靠指标大于最低可靠指标的基础上,使结构生命周期内总的期望费用最小.建立了检测、维修及失效事件的安全余量方程,推导了失效及维修概率的计算公式.在此基础上,以船体结构两种常用的腐蚀模型Paik模型和Guedes Soares模型为例,分析了两种模型对最优检测及维修策略的影响.其结果表明,腐蚀模型对最优的检测及维修次数和时间有明显的影响,但是对总的期望费用及失效概率影响不大,而且两种腐蚀模型得出的最优失效概率都是10-3.     

Bi-fidelity Kriging model for reliability analysis of the ultimate strength of stiffened panels

A method based on a Bi-fidelity Kriging model is proposed for structural reliability analysis. It is based on adding low-fidelity data samples to the model to predict high-fidelity values, thus saving computational effort. Distance Correlation develops the correlation between the low and high-fidelity functions, initially proposed to assess the correlation between two variables. The bi-fidelity Kriging response surface model's efficiency as a surrogate model will be assessed for structural reliability problems that demand high computational costs, such as nonlinear finite element analysis structural models. The efficiency assessment is performed by comparing the accuracy of the failure probability predictions based on the Subset Simulation and First-order reliability method using the Bi-fidelity Kriging model as a surrogate for the performance function. The idea is illustrated by considering a representative component of marine structures analyzed by finite element analysis to create bi-fidelity scenarios to assess structural reliability with many variables. The results show that the proposed multi-fidelity method can provide an accurate failure probability estimation with less computational cost.     

船体结构最优风险评估维护计划（英文）

Various structures such as marine structures age over time. In order to always maintain safety conditions, maintenance processes including inspection and repair should be implemented on them. Corrosion and fatigue cracks are two main factors that reduce the ultimate strength of the ship's hull girder over time and thus increase the probability and risk of failure. At the time of inspection,the structural conditions must be checked so that, if necessary, the required repairs can be done on it. The main objective of this paper is to provide optimized maintenance plans of the ship structure based on probabilistic concepts with regard to corrosion and fatigue cracks. Maintenance activities increase the operational costs of ships; therefore, it is advisable to inspect and repair in the optimal times. Optimal maintenance planning of the ship structure can be conducted by formulating and solving a multi-objective optimization problem. The use of risk as a structural performance indicator has become more common in recent years. The objective functions of the optimization problem include minimizing the structure's lifecycle maintenance costs, including inspection and repair costs, and also minimizing the maximum risk of structural failure during the ship's life. In the following,to achieve better responses, reliability index has been added to the problem as the third objective function. The multi-objective optimization problem is solved using genetic algorithms. The proposed risk-based approach is applied to the hull structure of a tanker ship.     

服役后期海洋平台剩余寿命可靠度预测方法

为保证服役后期平台在延寿服役期内的安全性,需要对其结构整体剩余寿命可靠度进行预测。因此,文章重点研究了在随机波浪载荷作用下平台部分构件动力失效和疲劳失效时,平台整体时变可靠度预测方法。采用Miner线性累积损伤理论和首次超越失效准则,计算平台构件的疲劳寿命可靠度和动力可靠度,搜索并删除失效概率较大的构件,运用波浪增量动力分析法找出平台结构所能承受的极限波浪载荷,再结合服役海域波浪统计资料,计算平台结构系统整体时变可靠度以预测其剩余寿命。文中算例表明了该方法的实用性和简便性。     

A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.     

Confidence bounds on structural reliability estimations for offshore platforms

Second-order estimates to measure platform reliability are generated and used to provide an additional space to select safety margins appropriate to the owner's perception or for risk-averse managers. The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the parameters of an offshore platform are explicitly considered in the reliability analysis and the platform structural reliability becomes a random variable, assessing then the beneficial effects of a reduction on these uncertainties. One of these benefits is for risk-aversive managers who often demand additional room to make conservative decisions regarding reliability estimations. Proposed here is a procedure to generate the frequency diagram of platform reliability with the use of confidence bounds to support reliability and cost decisions based on percentiles instead of mean values. The concepts are illustrated through a typical offshore platform in Mexico. The frequency diagram of the platform reliability index is built for several alternative designs and three levels of epistemic uncertainty. The results may be applied for decision making on new designs and also on the assessment and optimal inspection, retrofit, and decommissioning of existing platforms.     

基于风险的船体结构无损检测功能的分级

基于船舶结构传统的经验基础上的检测方法不但带来较高的费用,而且还会产生不必要的检测.针对上述问题,本文提出了基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法,采用检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率度量检测功能,并修正了错误识别概率的取值范围.根据风险值对无损检测功能进行了分级,研究了风险值随检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率的变化规律,并分析了风险值对检测费用、维修费用及失效费用的敏感性.在此基础上,将基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法应用于优化检测策略,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.     

Strength reliability analysis of stiffened cylindrical shells considering failure correlation

The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for thepressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms.There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with thestructural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculationmodel and machining errors. Correlations among failure modesmust be considered with the structural reliability of stiffenedcylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot considerthe correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present amethod of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells whichconsiders the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the jointfailure probability calculation formula of two related failure modesis derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function.Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structuralsystem is given with consideration to the correlations among failuremodes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation isverified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of theanalysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shellscan be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.     

结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法

本文提出了复杂结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法。引进Ｈｏｈｅｎｂｉｃｈｌｅｒ等提出的并联系统可靠性分析的二阶渐近式计算失效途径的疲劳失效概率;利用并联系统等效线性安全余量的概念,形成由失效途径的等效失效单元组成的串联系统;并最终计算整个系统的疲劳失效概率。计算结果表明,这一方法能有效地提高结构系统疲劳失效概率的计算精度。     

基于有限元分析的潜艇耐压液舱结构系统可靠性计算

潜艇耐压液舱结构复杂，往往需进行有限元分析以获得结构在极限载荷作用下的应力。此时，由于失效函数缺乏显式表达，故应用一般的可靠性计算方法将遇到困难。作者采用人工神经网络代替传统的多项式函数拟合失效面，并结合方向抽样技术，提出了基于有限元的结构系统可靠性计算的新算法。由于该方法引入了结构有限元分析，且无需进行失效模式间相关性的近似分析，因而计算精度好，适用范围广泛。潜艇耐压液舱结构系统可靠性分析的算例表明，该法有效地解决了复杂工程结构的系统可靠度计算问题。     

Comparative reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes

This paper deals with reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes. Failure is expressed by multiple response variables. Different methods can be used to assess failure probability, primary among them are the time-independent and out-crossing (up-crossing) rate methods. This paper describes the procedure for performing reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes by the out-crossing rate method. Alternative methods based on piecewise linear or continuous modeling of failure surface are explored for calculating the out-crossing rate and compared. The methods are exemplified by calculating the conditional probability of a damaged double hull oil tanker under combined vertical and horizontal bending moments.     

我国战略石油储备船系泊系统安全性评估

用失效概率来评估系泊系统的安全性,是衡量储油系统是否安全的重要手段之一.本文提出了考虑防波堤遭受破坏状况下计算系泊系统失效的数值模拟方法,用时域系泊模拟法求解储油船运动方程并对系泊系统进行了可靠性分析.模拟结果表明,系泊系统的年可靠性为0.999998.所提出的方法能有效地对超大型浮式储油船系泊系统进行定量的安全评估.     

考虑检测维修更新的船体梁时变可靠性分析

目前对服役期内船舶时变可靠性的分析,主要考虑疲劳和腐蚀这两类损伤随时间累积对剖面模数的影响,但很少考虑检测维修因素对损伤的修复作用.本文以某疏浚船为例,通过Matlab软件编程,以船体梁总纵强度为分析对象,建立极限状态方程,定量计算疲劳和腐蚀随时间对剖面模数造成的折减,并定量分析了疲劳裂纹和腐蚀板件检测维修的影响,对船舶的时变可靠性进行分析.计算结果表明,疲劳裂纹和腐蚀损伤随时间累积均会引起船体梁时变可靠度降低,且腐蚀是时变可靠度降低的主要因素;对裂纹和腐蚀板件的检测维修能恢复船舶的可靠度,时变可靠度恢复的效果与裂纹检测精度和腐蚀板件最小允许折减量比率有关.建议在后续研究中将对损伤的检测维修因素纳入分析.     

Marginal and total exceedance probabilities of environmental contours

Various methods have been proposed for defining an environmental contour, based on different concepts of exceedance probability. In the inverse first-order reliability method (IFORM) and the direct sampling (DS) method, contours are defined in terms of exceedances within a region bounded by a hyperplane in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, corresponding to marginal exceedance probabilities under rotations of the coordinate system. In contrast, the more recent inverse second-order reliability method (ISORM) and highest density (HD) contours are defined in terms of an isodensity contour of the joint density function in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, where an exceedance is defined to be anywhere outside the contour. Contours defined in terms of the total probability outside the contour are significantly more conservative than contours defined in terms of marginal exceedance probabilities. In this work we study the relationship between the marginal exceedance probability of the maximum value of each variable along an environmental contour and the total probability outside the contour. The marginal exceedance probability of the contour maximum can be orders of magnitude lower than the total exceedance probability of the contour, with the differences increasing with the number of variables. For example, a 50-year ISORM contour for two variables at 3-h time steps, passes through points with marginal return periods of 635 years, and the marginal return periods increase to 10,950 years for contours of four variables. It is shown that the ratios of marginal to total exceedance probabilities for DS contours are similar to those for IFORM contours. However, the marginal exceedance probabilities of the maximum values of each variable along an HD contour are not in fixed relation to the contour exceedance probability, but depend on the shape of the joint density function. Examples are presented to illustrate the impact of the choice of contour on simple structural reliability problems for cases where the use of contours defined in terms of either marginal or total exceedance probabilities may be appropriate. The examples highlight that to choose an appropriate contour method, some understanding about the shape of a structure's failure surface is required.     

考虑防波堤失效状况的超大型海洋浮式储油船系泊系统安全性评估

本文首先阐述了建立我国战略石油储备的必要性,选取了超大型浮式储油船作为海上石油储备方式.系泊系统是整个海上储油系统中最重要的设施,对系泊系统的概念、分析、设计和可靠性等作了较详细的描述.用失效概率来评估系泊系统的安全性,是衡量储油系统是否安全的重要手段之一.文中提出了考虑防波堤遭受破坏状况下计算系泊系统失效的数值模拟方法,用时域系泊模拟法求解储油船运动方程并对系泊系统进行了可靠性分析.模拟结果表明,系泊系统的年可靠性为0.999 997.所提出的方法能有效地对超大型浮式储油船系泊系统进行定量的安全评估.     

改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗法在A型液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的应用

[目的]随着液化天然气(LNG)船舶结构研究和设计深度的提高,需要有能够快速和准确地评估不确定性因素的可靠性分析方法。为此,提出基于改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗(RF-MC)法来解决A型独立液舱支座结构失效概率的计算问题。[方法]首先,根据不确定性因素的概率分布,使用MC法生成样本集;然后,以局部离群因子为准则,筛选出失效面附近的样本点,再对筛选出的样本点进行有限元计算后添加至训练集,通过重复训练随机森林近似模型,直至满足精度要求;最后,使用近似模型判别样本点是否失效,结合MC法计算结构的失效概率。[结果]综合考虑算法的准确率、复杂度和效率并结合算例1和2,可以发现在分析可靠性问题时改进RF-MC法比MC和BP-MC等方法具有更大优势。算例3的应用结果表明了改进RFMC法在A型独立液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的适用性。[结论]研究结果可为LNG船舶的优化设计提供可行的技术方案。     

Reliability analysis of ovalized deep-water pipelines with corrosion defects

The accurate assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipes is a subject that has been increasingly investigated over the past decades. This is because of the risk of significant social, economic, and environmental effects that may be caused by an accident. The finite element method has been successfully used to predict the collapse pressure considering external load. It was also used in this study. The literature primarily focused on the corroded pipes subjected to internal pressure. In this study, the out-of-roundness (ovalization) of the pipe was considered to evaluate the collapse pressure. Uncertainties should be incorporated into a computational model to assess the reliability of corroded pipes. Three methods for evaluation of the probability of failure were used: the first-order reliability method (FORM), traditional Monte Carlo (MC), and a new proposed methodology that combines MC results with the kernel density estimation method (MCkde). The probability of failure of ovalized corroded pipes subject to external pressure was computed. The results exhibited a good agreement between FORM and MCkde method. The statistical importance of each random variable was observed and the results were compared with those from intact ovalized pipes. The computation cost of the MC method with numerical simulation limits its use to the application under study. Solutions using the FORM and MCkde methods exhibited good agreement with those of the full MC method. However, the computational effort of the latter was independent of the stochastic dimension, and it was a derivative-free method. As expected, in general, the solutions based on empirical methods were conservative.     

Ship inspection support system using a product model

 Recently, the significance of ship inspections has been increasingly recognized because sea pollution and safety problems are occurring more and more frequently. However, current ship inspections rely on the experience of the workers. Therefore, it is difficult to understand, and hence to improve, the state of ship inspections. In this paper, ship inspection is directed into three stages (plan, do, and check), and the configurations of a total system to support ship inspections are discussed. A prototype system for the “plan” and “do” stages is developed. This is realized by organizing the information that relates to inspection, and defining data models for damage and inspection states. Then the proposed system is integrated with a shipbuilding computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) system so that the ship's structural information can be used effectively. In addition, functions to calculate the damage-finding probability, and functions to generate information about damage and the inspection state are introduced. Therefore, in the planning stage, as inspector can execute a virtual ship inspection, and then the damage-finding probability of each hull part and oversight areas are calculated automatically. Further, by carrying this system into an inspection, an inspector can generate damage information and inspection information simply and easily. Some examples of the proposed system are shown at the end of the paper. Received: November 12, 2001 / Accepted: January 30, 2002     

基于贝叶斯网络的半潜式钻井平台钻井设备系统可靠性分析

半潜式钻井平台的系统可靠性是保证其正常进行安全生产作业的重要指标。当前,国内对半潜式平台的可靠性研究主要集中于平台结构的可靠性上,对平台系统可靠性少有涉猎,并且传统可靠性分析方法难以定量分析某个设备的失效对系统可靠性的影响。本文提出应用贝叶斯网络法来进行半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性分析,通过设备间的依赖关系来确定网络结构和节点参数,建立贝叶斯网络模型并计算出系统可靠度,再对钻井系统进行故障诊断,推算钻井系统中各个根节点的后验概率,并成功找出钻井系统中的最薄弱环节为顶驱装置(Top-drive Drilling System, TDS),从而有针对性的对顶驱装置进行优化,可以有效提升半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性。     

FMEA在船舶分油机中的应用

以船舶分油机为研究对象,应用故障模式及影响分析方法(FMEA)确定出分油机的各种可能故障模式、故障原因和故障影响.同时计算出各故障的风险度,并依此对故障进行了分级,找出对分油机危害严重的故障.最后根据分析结果提出提高其可靠性的参考措施.本文研究能对其他的船舶设备应用FMEA进行可靠性分析提供有效的参考.