关于京津城际铁路财务风险及可持续性的探讨

敏感性分析表明,京津城际铁路现金流和盈亏平衡关键年度对收入和成本变化不敏感,但对运量和资本金比例非常敏感,这说明京津城际铁路及我国铁路产业面临财务风险的根源在于铁路投资建设的规模和强度,有必要出台扶持政策帮助铁路渡过困难期,预防可能出现的风险。     

基于思维导图分解法的公路工程投标过程风险分析

工程量清单计算规则与公路工程概预算定额计算规则存在差异,对于风险因素的概率分布,两种模式也存在差异,当采用清单计价的招投标规则时,则会使施工企业面临较大的投标风险。文章基于思维导图分解法,提出公路工程风险分析模型,证明了该方法具有较强的适用性和独特性,同时对投标过程中可能出现的风险进行了风险分析。     

交通企业合同签订与企业家风险防范

谈到交通运输企业的合间风险，我们不仪要考虑企业本身的风险，同时更要把企业家的风险作为不可忽视的重要问题对待，企业及企业家都足风险防范的主体。在交通企业合同签订中存在企业家刑事责任风险，企业家应该如何防范该风险呢？     

道路客运业风险缺失后果及纠正

是什么原因使得显而易见的风险对客运企业没有产生淘汰效应呢?或者说,为什么道路运输企业在风险下生命力如此之强呢?难道是政府对行业风险的过度保护?难道是挂靠经营管理体制使应有的风险得到了转嫁?难道经营主体自身的风险在当下已经基本消除?     

挂靠经营风险控制思路

挂靠经营是运输企业利益与风险的博弈,是把"双刃剑",被挂靠企业往往以有限的利益换取了巨大的风险.     

浅谈施工合同风险的防范和控制

建筑施工合同客观上存在风险,如何有效地防范和控制施工合同的风险,防止企业利益损失是每个施工企业十分重视的问题。本文通过对建筑施工合同风险分析,提出了如何防范和控制施工合同风险的措施,供参考。     

“三三一”破解法律风险防控难

在日前召开的全国道路运输企业法律风险防控会议上，与会专家大部分人认可“三三一”的企业防控法律风险体系，即三原则三理念一个路径，实现道路运输企业法律风险防控的全面、深入、常态化     

轨道交通企业经营期财产保险策划的关键点分析

轨道交通企业经营管理面临多种风险,在控制转移成本前提下利用保险转移风险,是所有轨道交通企业面临的实际问题。本文梳理归纳了轨道交通企业经营期所面临的财产风险;提出了轨道交通企业财产保险的策划重点,包括险种选择、投保标的、模式、期限、限额、条款确定等关键点分析;分析了保险理赔注意事项,为轨道交通企业保险提供借鉴,其他大型重资产企业的投保思路及关键点具有类似性,本文也可为这类重资产企业保险提供参考。     

客车企业品牌建设三步曲

品牌已经成为企业或产品走向市场、走进消费者的桥梁与纽带,也成为企业抗拒风险、化解风险的利器。     

客运企业并购中的风险防范

如火如荼的客运企业并购模式存在颇多风险,如何正确认识和化解风险,是当前并购企业需要认真研究的新课题.     

Tolls,Terms and Public Interest in Road Concessions Privatization: A Comparative Analysis of Recent Transactions in the USA and France

Abstract

Recent concessions in France and in the USA have resulted in a dramatic difference in the valuation placed on the toll roads; the price paid by the investors in France was 12 times current cash flow whereas investors paid 60 times current cash flow for US toll roads. In this paper, we explore two questions: what accounts for the difference in these multiples? and what are the implications with respect to the public interest? Our analysis illustrates how structural and procedural decisions made by the public owner affect the concession price. Further, the terms of the concession have direct consequences that are enjoyed or borne by the various stakeholders of the toll road.     

Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships

This paper investigates the feasibility of and develops an economic valuation model for strategic options in Comprehensive Development Agreements (CDAs). A CDA is a form of public–private partnership whereby the right to price and collect revenues from toll roads is leased to a private entity for a long but finite period of time. In exchange, this provides local and state governments with a quick influx of cash and/or additional infrastructure. Uncertainty associated with such long-term leases is of substantial public concern. This paper examines five different strategic options, namely a buyout option, a conditional buyout option, a revenue-sharing option, and two types of minimum revenue guarantee options. The buyout option in particular could give the public sector additional control over the future use of leased facilities and address potential concerns regarding long-run uncertainty and possible unforeseen windfalls for the private sector. The paper’s contributions include the analysis, feasibility assessment and valuation of several strategic options, sensitivity analysis of the solutions, an economic consumer demand-based revenue model for purposes of cash flow simulation, and analysis of option price sensitivity to “moneyness”. The main conclusion is that strategic options can provide useful risk reduction, but generally have significant value relative to the lease itself. By scaling down payoffs, options could be realistically included in CDAs and other PPPs. For some parameter values, option values to the developer and public authority are offsetting, allowing for costless risk reduction.     

Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping

Using a system of equations model, we analyze how cash flow shocks influence the investment and financing decisions of shipping firms in different economic environments. Even financially healthy shipping firms felt strong negative effects on their financing activities during the recent crisis. These firms were nevertheless able to increase long-term debt. Banks internalized the impact of foreclosure decisions on vessel prices and avoided an industry-wide collateral channel effect. Even during benign economic conditions, financially weak shipping firms underinvest because of their inability to raise sufficient external capital. The substitution between long- and short-term debt during the pre-2008 crisis periods shows that the composition of financing sources is more indicative of whether firms face financial constraints than the pure size of the financing-cash flow sensitivities. An analysis of firms’ excess cash holdings confirms the importance of financial flexibility.     

上市航空类企业现金持有水平研究

新冠肺炎疫情重新使人们认识到现金对企业的重要性。航空业运营成本巨大,持有一定量现金对维持航空企业运营具有重要意义。本文利用1998~2019年间沪深两市航空类上市公司的数据,研究了我国航空业现金持有水平。研究发现:航空业现金持有水平较低,航空公司更是呈逐年下降的趋势,低现金持有水平可能是投资挤压导致的;近几年,航空类企业持有的现金最多仅能维持5个月;企业债务融资与固定资产投资等密切相关;航空公司和机场利用商业信用的程度较弱。对此,我国民航企业应改变单一的投融资方式,加大对商业信用的利用。     

Developing metro-based accessibility: Three aspects of China’s Rail+Property practice

Populous Chinese cities have invested heavily in metro systems and planned proactively for transit-oriented development. Rail plus property (R+P) programs, where metro corporations engage in, and even orchestrate real estate development in or around rail station areas, have been recurrently reported among these cities. However, careful assessment of these programs is still rare in the existing literature. Built upon multiple R+P programs led by Shenzhen Metro Cooperation and/or Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway Cooperation, this article fathoms the rationale for R+P programs in Mainland China, the obstacles for oversea private investors’ participation and the balance between profit making and social goods supply. It finds that R+P programs serve as alternative funding sources for expensive metro projects. It decreases municipal governments’ cash flow contribution to those projects, which is mandated by the central government. In addition, local business environment for R+P projects has disadvantaged private sector participation, especially those private investors from overseas. Furthermore, public subsidy to local metro corporations is likely to persist as R+P programs have not been designed for economic value maximization; rather, they are in place because (1) they reduce the cash flow burden of the municipal government; (2) they are tasked by the municipal government to produce a considerable number of affordable public housing.     

Remuneration models and revenue risk mitigation in road public–private partnership projects – a case study from Serbia

As a consequence of renewed interest in attracting private financing for infrastructure investments, public–private partnership (PPP) arrangements are mostly seen as a suitable mechanism for ensuring sound and quicker delivery of transport infrastructure projects. However, a general concern is that expectations of mobilizing private-sector funds have been overestimated in a number of cases. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the risk analysis of transport PPP projects with substantial exogenous demand risk which could serve as a rationale for choosing the appropriate PPP model. The objective of this paper is to construct an analytical cash flow-based project model to facilitate the choice of the remuneration mechanism suitable for both private investors and public sector. The model provides an indication whether the project should be implemented as a ‘users pay’, a hybrid or an ‘annuity’ PPP model. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study from Serbia.     

Real option analysis for environmental compliance: LNG and emission control areas

A wide array of technical and operational solutions is available to shipowners in order to comply with existing and upcoming environmental regulation within Emission Control Areas (ECAs). Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is a promising alternative since it offers potential cost savings in addition to ensuring compliance with ECA regulation. But investment to retrofit existing vessels to be able to use LNG carries significant upfront costs, and a high degree of uncertainty remains on the differential between the prices of LNG and conventional maritime fuels, as well as on the availability of LNG and the reliability of its supply chain. New technologies such as LNG inherently carry substantial risk and an ill-chosen investment strategy may have irreversible consequences that could jeopardise the future of the shipping company. One important question is whether interested owners should invest in LNG now to comply with ECA rules in 2015 and reap the benefits of lower LNG prices, or whether it would be advisable to wait until some of the uncertainty is resolved.While traditional discounted cash flow techniques are unable to account for the value of managerial flexibility linked, for example, to the possibility of deferring an investment, real option analysis can be used to analyse such cases. The paper discusses the optimal time for investment in LNG retrofit and takes specific account of the value of an investment deferral strategy versus the advantages obtainable from the immediate exploitation of fuel price differentials. Through the use of a real option model the paper shows that there is a trade-off between low fuel prices and capital expenses for investment in LNG retrofit. The development in LNG is critically dependent on its future price as well as the reduction in capital costs and ship retrofitting costs. In this respect, policy makers can play a critical role in providing support to advance technical knowledge, maintain LNG prices at favourable levels and in avoiding ambiguity on regulation.     

Airline Jet Fuel Hedging: Theory and Practice

Abstract

Most international airlines hedge fuel costs, but the theoretical justification behind this action is weak. The paper explores the nature and extent of airline fuel hedging and asks why airlines hedge. The availability of hedging instruments is first discussed, with the most liquid markets in crude and exchange traded contracts. Aviation fuel contracts are possible, but with counter‐party risk. Most major passenger airlines with sufficient cash and credit now hedge at least part of their future needs. Hedging does protect profits against a sudden upturn in crude prices caused by political and consumer uncertainty leading to slower economic growth. However, if higher oil prices are induced by strong economic growth and oil supply constraints, hedging increases volatility with hedging gains reinforcing improved profits from higher traffic and improved yields. If hedging does not reduce volatility, it may still have an accounting role in moving profits from one time period to another, insure against bankruptcy, and signal the competence of management to investors and other stakeholders.     

An optimal variable speed limits system to ameliorate traffic safety risk

Active Traffic Management (ATM) systems have been emerging in recent years in the US and Europe. They provide control strategies to improve traffic flow and reduce congestion on freeways. This study investigates the feasibility of utilizing a Variable Speed Limits (VSL) system, one key part of ATM, to improve traffic safety on freeways. A proactive traffic safety improvement VSL control algorithm is proposed. First, an extension of the METANET (METANET: A macroscopic simulation program for motorway networks) traffic flow model is employed to analyze VSL’s impact on traffic flow. Then, a real-time crash risk evaluation model is estimated for the purpose of quantifying crash risk. Finally, optimal VSL control strategies are achieved by employing an optimization technique to minimize the total crash risk along the VSL implementation corridor. Constraints are setup to limit the increase of average travel time and the differences of the posted speed limits temporarily and spatially. This novel VSL control algorithm can proactively reduce crash risk and therefore improve traffic safety. The proposed VSL control algorithm is implemented and tested for a mountainous freeway bottleneck area through the micro-simulation software VISSIM. Safety impacts of the VSL system are quantified as crash risk improvements and speed homogeneity improvements. Moreover, three different driver compliance levels are modeled in VISSIM to monitor the sensitivity of VSL effects on driver compliance. Conclusions demonstrated that the proposed VSL system could improve traffic safety by decreasing crash risk and enhancing speed homogeneity under both the high and moderate compliance levels; while the VSL system fails to significantly enhance traffic safety under the low compliance scenario. Finally, future implementation suggestions of the VSL control strategies and related research topics are also discussed.     

Suburban attitudes toward policies aimed at reducing solo driving

Policies that are aimed at discouraging commuters from solo driving have become a part of overall efforts to improve air quality and reduce traffic congestion. Since driving alone is the overwhelming choice of employed residents in US metropolitan areas, the political acceptability of proposed policy changes plays a role in their success. The 1992 Orange County (CA) Annual Survey asked employed solo drivers to rate their likelihood of changing from solo driving in response to various fees and incentives. Fewer say they would be very likely to stop solo driving if they were charged a parking fee at work (20%), a smog fee (17%) or a congestion fee (16%), than if their employers paid them a cash bonus for stopping solo driving (28%), or if more public transit (33%) or more carpools at work (35%) were available. Young and lower-status solo drivers are more likely than others to say they would stop driving alone if there were fees or cash bonuses. Current non-solo drivers tend to be young and low income, providing a validity check on the demographic predictors of stated preferences. The findings are discussed in light of recent policy changes in Southern California.