Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.     

Things planners believe in,and things they deny

The paper examines the economic theory of consumer behavior from the Modern Psychoanalytic point of view with a metaphor of (transport) planning as a backdrop. It is claimed that the utility maximization principle of economic theory, no matter how broadly interpreted, does not envelop the motivation of human behavior and that the economic explanation of the aims of human behavior, which disregards the "dark side" of man, will result in narrowly conceived plans and policies.The application of economic theory, and other social sciences, to public policy has led to disjointedness of data collection, method of analysis, and planning and implementation. This, combined with a tautological behavioral theory, has made the current planning and public policy procedures self-verifying, and issues an invitation for a new theoretical approach which is comprehensive, does not ignore complexity and the large "error term", and appreciates the unity of data collection, method of investigation, and process of implementation.It is argued that unsatisfactory performance of the transport system, large errors inherent in data and models, the inability of extant transportation planning and policy to address key issues successfully, the environmental problem, and the value of the individual all call for new kinds of skills from the planners and policy makers.Freud's dualistic formulation of instinctual drives -- the life and death instincts -- is used as the new framework of explanation. This theory is seen to offer a convincing, more realistic and deeper understanding of the forces motivating human behavior, and one which is more in accordance with observable facts. If applied, the theory will lead to significantly different planning processes and to a profoundly different approach to public policy.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

A framework for urban freight policy analysis

This paper provides an overview of the urban freight process, in the context of the supply and demand aspects of freight. A framework for analysis is developed, and within that framework, particular aspects of the urban freight process are described. Issues of concern from a public policy viewpoint are highlighted.

Seven main instruments related to public policy are introduced and their application described — taxes and subsidies, regulations, investment, operational instruments, planning, public ownership and research.

It is concluded that the importance of urban freight to the community and its relevance to urban transport justifies a higher level of attention in transport planning and policy formulation, and that there are a wide range of policy instruments available to enable this to be done. The objective of such planning and policy making needs to be specified in each specific context.     

Comments on 'The limitations of transport policy'

This paper has been written as a response to the paper of Metz (2002) on 'The limitations of transport policy'. It is argued that the issues involved are more complex than Metz implies, and that many current travel patterns stem from decisions made previously about lifestyles, as a result of changing patterns of work, the availability of home-computing facilities, and increasing aspirations and income. Neither the models nor the data sources available to transport planners reflect these trends, and transport policy tends to be simplistic. Many of the transport policy issues stem from increasing car dependency, with its implications, particularly for the elderly and for the young. It is argued that transport policy has not been very effective in the past, and it is likely to be even less so in the future. Hence, there is a need to redefine the role of the transport planner and recognize the limitations of transport policy.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

Institutional issues in planning for more uncertain futures

Future travel demand has always been difficult to estimate. Recent trends of a slow down or stagnation in traffic growth combined with substantial demographic, economic, and technological shifts further complicate that task. This poses a significant planning challenge given that decision-making is often based on the benefits of infrastructure investments which accrue over periods as long as 60 years. In contrast to the changing ideas around what mobility in the future will look like and the types of demand it may need to service, the practice of forecasting future travel demand remains largely unchanged as do the decision-making processes which flow from this. Alternative approaches to thinking about futures such as scenario planning exist but have had more limited deployment in the transport sector. This paper explores the institutional issues surrounding the purpose, practice and barriers to changing the approaches of forecasting and decision-making through an exploration of the state of practice in the UK drawing on interviews with 23 practitioners. Drawing on Hall’s work on policy change, the research finds that there is a strong policy paradigm built around the relationships between transport investment and traffic growth. This has strengthened since the recession with an increased focus on the relationship between transport and job creation. The forecasting approaches in use today are an important part of a complex decision-making apparatus reflective of specialized policy arenas like transport. Challenges in acknowledging, representing and communicating uncertainty are identified leaving a growing tension between planning visions and planning practice. We conclude by reflecting on events which may stimulate a broader reframing of how we plan for transport futures whilst embracing key uncertainties.

     

Well-being and Transport: Taking Stock and Looking Forward

ABSTRACT

It is only recently that researchers have attempted to directly link transport to models of well-being and in turn try to map transport's linkages to well-being outcomes. This paper seeks to add to this new literature by introducing a dynamic model of well-being, which highlights the different domains that make up well-being, and in turn — through providing one of the most holistic and comprehensive discussions of the current well-being literature — provide an evaluation of our current understanding of transport's relationship to well-being. The paper also seeks to highlight the different dimensions and complexities of seeking to monitor and improve well-being through transport policy. It will in turn be argued that the varied and complex sets of outcomes that arise from transport policy interventions, and the multiple ways in which they affect well-being, make a well-being approach (that measures policy outcomes in terms of units of well-being) of particular value for policy-makers. However, due to the complexities in comparing positive well-being outcomes, it is argued that the best use of well-being evidence for the transport sector may be to try to minimise the negative effects on well-being caused by policy outcomes.     

An overview of transport in Kuwait

Abstract

Kuwait is a relatively small country located at the top of the Arabian Gulf with population in 1980 amounting to 1.355 millions. Kuwait occupies an area of approximately 17 800 square kilometres. Kuwait's main source of national income is oil export. Income from oil export and other sources has resulted in Kuwait having the highest per capita income in the world. Consequently vehicle ownership is very high and traffic is ever growing and extending. Kuwait is self‐sufficient in only a few commodities and has a shortage of local labour. This means that transport has a fundamental role to play at the national and international level for the development of Kuwait's economy.

This paper provides a brief statement of transport in Kuwait. It starts by describing Kuwait's national setting and touches on the economic and social aspects in Kuwait that have an influence on transport patterns and needs. It describes the national transport system and covers road, air, rail and ports. Urban development planning in Kuwait is described and issues related to stages of urban development planning. The Kuwait City Master Plan and new town initiatives are presented. The urban transport system in Kuwait Metropolitan Area is described. In particular the characteristics of the urban road network and public transport facilities are outlined along with recent transport planning studies and new initiatives in the urban transport system.

The paper ends with a statement on organizations involved in the transport sector in Kuwait and a note on transport finance.     

Why are cities removing their freeways? A systematic review of the literature

ABSTRACT

A scientific consensus has recently emerged suggesting that the dominant twentieth century paradigm of solving transportation congestion problems by building more freeways failed. The legacy of the freeway construction era is clearly visible in polluted and congested cities worldwide. To battle these ills, planning academics have been promoting more sustainable built form aligned with dedicated public/active transport provision. Partly as a result of the push coming from academia, a number of cities have sought to remove their freeways and replace the freed up space with alternate transport infrastructure, such as streets and boulevards. To discern if the transportation planning profession is currently undergoing a paradigm shift or whether freeway removal is merely a temporary fad, we have conducted a systematic review of the literature. In this article, we unpack the underlying reasons which have led some cities to removing their freeways. Results reveal that a paradigm shift has arguably not yet taken place in transportation planning. While many cities are creating human-scale and active transport spaces, currently these spaces tend to coexist alongside freeways. American cities, which were once the pioneers of freeway construction, appear to be lagging behind cities in Europe and Asia in this respect. If the current pace of freeway removal continues, it may take a few decades before the transportation planners, politicians, policy makers, and communities adopt radically different norms, methods, and goals. However, a radical approach may need to be taken sooner given alarming global warming predictions.     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

Planning and Evaluation of Passenger Ferry Service in Hong Kong

A predominant observation in Hong Kong is the continuous loss in ferry patronage. There are two main reasons for this: poor level-of-service and better competitors. New roads, bridges, and tunnels are serving the buses, and to some extent the railways; whereas the investment in ferry terminals is relatively at a lower level. On the one hand, there is no need to promote the ferries in a free market environment; but on the other hand, the ferries have the best safety record, can only relieve some traffic congestion and need water access that is one of the characteristics of Hong Kong. The goal of this paper is to design a planning approach combined with an evaluation procedure on how to make the best use of the existing water and pier resources in Hong Kong through the provision of commercially viable ferry services. The approach used covers the impact of future developments planning up to 2006 comprising all public transport modes in Hong Kong (heavy rail, metro, bus, and ferry). The planning tool is based on a newly developed multi-objective evaluation method in order to assess the ferry routes with scientific, practical, and simplified analyses for future use. This assessment is applied to the existing ferry routes and candidate routes and can also be carried out on an individual route basis or on a given set of routes. The objective functions set forth analytically in the evaluation method take into account the interests of the three participants: the passengers, the operators and the government. The proposed ferry network design formulation and the suggested new ferry routes will have a positive impact on changing the ferry system’s image in Hong Kong.     

Transport planning in Hungary: a case study of Pécs

This review emerged from an opportunity provided in 1988 to the author to study the process of Hungarian transport planning in general, and that of the major regional city of Pécs in particular.

It begins by outlining the difficulties of obtaining detailed information on transport policy‐making and planning in Eastern Europe, and then goes on to analyse the situation in Hungary as a whole since the early 1960s. The specific situation in Pécs is then discussed in relation to national transport planning, with detailed case studies drawn from problems on the local and regional road network, the growth in car ownership and usage, the development of local and inter‐regional rail services, the provision of adequate local bus services, and the growth of local taxi services.

The problems stemming from State intervention and planning control in local transport are emphasized, as are the increasingly difficult issues of the Hungarian economy in constraining public investment. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the problems of Pécs with those of urban areas elsewhere in Europe, and emphasizes the particular difficulties faced by East European planners in the future.     

公路运输站场规划方案的综合评价方法

文章将层次分析法与模糊综合评价方法相结合,针对公路运输站场规划方案的综合评价,进行了多层次模糊综合评价方法的研究,阐述了该方法的原理及其在公路运输站场规划方案综合评价中的应用,证明了该方法应用的易操作性与可行性。     

Transport and equity in Latin America: a critical review of socially oriented accessibility assessments*

ABSTRACT

A growing concern for mobility-related social inclusion and equity is evident from both academic research and planning best practices. Scholarly research promotes accessibility as the main aim of transport planning, assuming it as the evaluative approach that better conveys how mobility contributes to individuals' well-being and participation in social life. Accessibility can be crucial to address the socio-spatial inequalities that characterise manifold settings across the world. Amongst them, Latin American countries have been keen in tackling such imbalances through mobility-related interventions, as the renowned cases of Curitiba, Medellin and Bogotá show. The widespread interest in mobility as both a cause and effect of social disparities has generated an increasing stream of work that examines Latin American settings through the lenses of accessibility. This paper aims at critically reviewing the growing scholarly works that, providing accessibility-based evaluations, has examined issues of transport and equity in Latin America. Proposing a novel conceptual framework that considers the underlying ethical stance, components of accessibility and implications for planning and policy, this work examines what approaches, features and indicators are present in the current literature, as well as what settings have been taken into consideration by scholarly research. Moreover, the review has an explicit operational interest, to define what indicators are relevant or missing to assess accessibility in the light of social concerns, as well as to consider the current and potential implications that such research findings have on transport planning and policy. The review highlights how a growing but still limited body of work has examined transport and equity in Latin America, suggesting academic, technical and operational avenues to enhance theoretical and practical approaches to the issue.     

Bridging the gap between complex data and decision-makers: an example of an innovative interactive tool

Abstract

The increasing capacity of technological tools, as well as the advent of geographic information systems, has multiplied the ability to process large sets of microdata. At the same time, modeling concerns and the quest for a more in-depth understanding of individual behaviors is requiring more, and better, data. The gap between scientific modeling and informational tools for decision-making seems to be widening.

In the Greater Montreal area, large sets of microdata have been available for more than 30 years. Along with the development of modeling and planning tools, particular attention has been given to the continuous enlightening of planners and decision-makers with respect to the outcomes of the various surveys. This has led to the development of particular interactive tools, specifically addressed at local planners, which present the most significant information regarding travel and demography, for geopolitically relevant areas.

This paper presents the most recent interactive tool that has been developed for local planners in the Montreal area. It integrates information from both the most recent travel survey held in the region and the Canadian census. It offers both ease of use and relevant analytical means to assist in exploring the complex relations between spatial locations, demographic features, and activity-travel indicators.     

Multi-criteria analysis of optimal signal plans using microscopic traffic models

Increasing concerns on environment and natural resources, coupled with increasing demand for transport, put lots of pressure for improved efficiency and performance on transport systems worldwide. New technology nowadays enables fast innovation in transport, but it is the policy for deployment and operation with a systems perspective that often determines success. Smart traffic management has played important roles for continuous development of traffic systems especially in urban areas. There is, however, still lack of effort in current traffic management and planning practice prioritizing policy goals in environment and energy. This paper presents an application of a model-based framework to quantify environmental impacts and fuel efficiency of road traffic, and to evaluate optimal signal plans with respect not only to traffic mobility performance but also other important measures for sustainability. Microscopic traffic simulator is integrated with micro-scale emission model for estimation of emissions and fuel consumption at high resolution. A stochastic optimization engine is implemented to facilitate optimal signal planning for different policy goals, including delay, stop-and-goes, fuel economy etc. In order to enhance the validity of the modeling framework, both traffic and emission models are fine-tuned using data collected in a Chinese city. In addition, two microscopic traffic models are applied, and lead to consistent results for signal optimization. Two control schemes, fixed time and vehicle actuated, are optimized while multiple performance indexes are analyzed and compared for corresponding objectives. Solutions, representing compromise between different policies, are also obtained in the case study by optimizing an integrated performance index.     

Land Transport Policy and Public Transport in Singapore

Singapore has a sophisticated and efficient system of land transport to serve a growing demand for transportation. Constrained by limited space, a comprehensive set of land transport policies has been in place to balance the growth in transport demand and the effectiveness and efficiency of the land transport system. A multi-pronged approach has been used to achieve the objective of a world-class transportation system. These include integration of urban and transport planning, expansion of the road network and improvement of the transport infrastructure, harnessing the latest technology in network and traffic management, managing vehicle ownership and usage, and improvement and regulations of public transport (Ministry of Transport (MOT) (2003) Policy and Regulations, Land Transport, Available: www.mot.gov.sg, Date of Access: 15 September 2003). Singapore was the first country in the world to introduce various new techniques, notably the Area License Scheme (ALS) in 1975 and the Vehicle Quota System (VQS) in 1990. An Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system replaced the ALS in 1998 to take the role of congestion management, the experience of which has also drawn particular attention from many large cities in the world. In 2003, the world’s first and only fully automatic heavy rail Mass Rapid Transit system was opened to the public, marking a new chapter in Singapore’s innovative approach to solving its land transport problem. This paper reviews the land transport policy implemented in Singapore and pays special emphasis to its public transportation systems.