Shipping log data based container ship fuel efficiency modeling

Container shipping lines have been initiating various ship fuel efficiency management programs because bunker fuel costs always dominate the daily operating costs of a container ship. As the basis of these kinds of programs, we develop a viable research methodology for modeling the relationship between the fuel consumption rate of a particular container ship and its determinants, including sailing speed, displacement, sea conditions and weather conditions, by using the shipping log data available in practice. The developed methodology consists of an outlier-score-based data preprocessing procedure to tackle the fuzziness, inaccuracy and limited information of shipping logs, and two regression models for container ship fuel efficiency. Real shipping logs from four container ships (two with 13000 TEUs and two with 5000 TEUs) over a six-month sailing period are used to exhibit the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The empirical studies demonstrate the performance of three models for fitting the fuel consumption rate of a ship and the industrial merits of ship fuel efficiency management. In addition, we highlight the potential impacts of the models developed in this study on liner shipping network analysis, as these models can serve as base models for additionally considering the influence of displacement and weather conditions on ship fuel efficiency and exhaust emissions.     

Effect of a speed reduction of containerships in response to higher energy costs in Sulphur Emission Control Areas

The objective of this paper is to explore the possible consequences of the future low-sulphur fuel requirements in Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) on vessel speed, from the standpoint of the container shipping industry. Rational energy use, speed reduction, and revenues are closely related in the container shipping sector because speed reductions may provide substantial energy and cost savings. The operators could consider reducing their speed in SECA in order to save on fuel that will become relatively expensive. However, to maintain a weekly frequency without adding new ships, such a behaviour implies that the required speed at sea outside the SECA area increases. This paper aims to investigate if such a difference in speed is cost-effective, and if the increase in speed outside SECA may result in an increase in CO₂ emissions of the total cycle. We propose a cost model that estimates the cost-minimising combination of speeds inside and outside SECA, and the resulting CO₂ emissions of the liner service. Applying this model to representative liner services serving North Europe, we find that differentiating speed accordingly slightly decreases total costs and increases CO₂ emissions in a similar way. The results are sensitive to the price of low-sulphur fuels, the part of the cycle in SECA and the number of ships deployed in the service.     

Lightweighting shipping containers: Life cycle impacts on multimodal freight transportation

Freight transportation by truck, train, and ship accounts for 5% of the United States’ annual energy consumption (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2017a). Much of this freight is transported in shipping containers. Lightweighting containers is an unexplored strategy to decrease energy and GHG emissions. We evaluate life cycle fuel savings and environmental performance of lightweighting scenarios applied to a forty-foot (12.2 meters) container transported by ship, train, and truck. Use phase burdens for both conventional and lightweighted containers (steel reduction, substitution with aluminum, or substitution with high tensile steel) were compared to life cycle burdens. The study scope ranged from the transportation of one container 100 km to the lifetime movement of the global container fleet on ships. Case studies demonstrated the impact of lightweighting on typical multimodal freight deliveries to the United States. GREET 1 and 2 (Argonne National Laboratory, 2016a,b) were used to estimate the total fuel cycle burdens associated with use phase fuel consumption. Fuel consumption was determined using modal Fuel Reduction Values (FRV), which relate mass reduction to fuel reduction. A lifetime reduction of 21% in the fuel required to transport a container, and 1.4% in the total fuel required to move the vehicles, cargo, and containers can be achieved. It was determined that a 10% reduction in mass of the system will result in a fuel reduction ranging from 2% to 8.4%, depending on the mode. Globally, container lightweighting can reduce energy demand by 3.6 EJ and GHG emissions by 300 million tonnes CO₂e over a 15-year lifetime.     

Maritime routing and speed optimization with emission control areas

Strict limits on the maximum sulphur content in fuel used by ships have recently been imposed in some Emission Control Areas (ECAs). In order to comply with these regulations many ship operators will switch to more expensive low-sulphur fuel when sailing inside ECAs. Since they are concerned about minimizing their costs, it is likely that speed and routing decisions will change because of this. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to be applied by ship operators for determining sailing paths and speeds that minimize operating costs for a ship along a given sequence of ports. We perform a computational study on a number of realistic shipping routes in order to evaluate possible impacts on sailing paths and speeds, and hence fuel consumption and costs, from the ECA regulations. Moreover, the aim is to examine the implications for the society with regards to environmental effects. Comparisons of cases show that a likely effect of the regulations is that ship operators will often choose to sail longer distances to avoid sailing time within ECAs. Another effect is that they will sail at lower speeds within and higher speeds outside the ECAs in order to use less of the more expensive fuel. On some shipping routes, this might give a considerable increase in the total amount of fuel consumed and the CO₂ emissions.     

The effectiveness and costs of speed reductions on emissions from international shipping

Greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping are an increasing concern. The paper evaluates whether vessel speed reduction can be a potentially cost-effective CO₂ mitigation option for ships calling on US ports. By applying a profit-maximizing equation to estimate route-specific, economically-efficient speeds, we explore policy impacts of a fuel tax and a speed reduction mandate on CO₂ emissions. The profit-maximizing function incorporates opportunity costs associated with speed reduction that go unobserved in more traditional marginal abatement cost analyses. We find that a fuel tax of about $150/ton fuel will lead to average speed-related CO₂ reductions of about 20–30%. Moreover, a speed reduction mandate targeted to achieve 20% CO₂ reduction in the container fleet costs between $30 and $200 per ton CO₂ abated, depending on how the fleet responds to a speed reduction mandate.     

Sulphur abatement globally in maritime shipping

In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns.The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5% sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SO_X reductions and CO₂ (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO₂ emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO₂ emissions.     

The desulphurisation of shipping: Past,present and the future under a global cap

As from January 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is implementing a global 0.5% limit on the sulphur content of fuel, commonly known as the global sulphur cap. This limit is the latest policy in the efforts to reduce sulphur emissions from shipping, following the designation of emission control areas (ECAs) and other regional regulations. In this paper, a literature review is conducted of academic studies that have dealt with issues relating to the reduction of maritime sulphur emissions. Various recurring research themes are identified, spanning the areas of operations research, maritime economics and transport policy. The effects and implications of available compliance options are then analyzed from the perspectives of ship operators, shippers and consumers. Using lessons learned from the enforcement of ECA regulations, this is followed by an appraisal of various potential issues related to the enforcement of these new global regulations. It is found that a homogeneous enforcement regime is required to ensure a level playing field amongst ship operators and that the global sulphur cap may lead to serious market distortion, due to the potential short term rise of fuel prices. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future research on sulphur emissions from shipping in the aftermath of the global cap and, looking forward, to its relationship to the IMO strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) shipping emissions.     

Emission control areas: More or fewer?

As the global sulphur limit implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the further development of sulphur emission reduction technologies, the effects of Emission Control Areas (ECAs) on reducing the sulphur emissions from ships will be reduced gradually. To explore the necessity of ECAs in the near future, this paper introduces the fictitious sulphur emission permit allocated to shipping carriers for our considered region. We propose an ECA location problem, which determines the location of ECAs in order to minimize the impact of sulphur emissions on human health, while satisfying the constraint on the fictitious sulphur emission permit. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed for our investigated problem. Numerical experiments are carried out by using our proposed model applied to China and Africa, where the sulphur emissions at different sites are estimated via the fuel consumption calculated by collecting data from liner carriers. Results show that, for the case of China, the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have a high probability for establishing ECAs. For the case of Africa, the Guinea Bay and South Africa have a high probability for establishing ECAs.     

How do economies of density in container handling operations affect ships’ time and emissions in port? Evidence from Norwegian container terminals

Efficient port services are prerequisites for competitive and sustainable maritime transports. This paper makes advances in studying the determinants of the time that ships spend in port and the associated emissions to air. We estimate a production model for cargo handling based on a unique dataset containing each port of call at the largest container terminals in Norway in 2014. In turn, we use auxiliary engine emission factors to estimate particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions from ships at berth, to determine how the corresponding damage costs of air pollution vary with container throughput, location, and terminal investments. We find that Norwegian container terminals operate under increasing returns to density. Small ships that unload few containers are far from reaping economies of density, leading to high marginal time requirements for container handling and consequently high marginal external costs. From a Pigouvian taxation perspective, port charges should therefore be regressive in the number of containers handled. Moreover, we find that the external costs of maritime transports are severely understated when port operations are ignored. Our model allows determining the marginal productivities of port facilities. Thereby, it is instrumental in designing port charges that are diversified according to the quantity of containers handled and the service quality (i.e., the speed of handling operations). Regarding contextual factors, we find that establishing high-frequent liner services improves the ship working rate, while simultaneous calls at a terminal impede productivity. The type of container (loading/unloading; empty/laden) also appears to influence the duration of ship working.     

Energy efficiency and time charter rates: Energy efficiency savings recovered by ship owners in the Panamax market

This paper presents the first analysis on how financial savings arising from energy efficient ships are allocated between owners and those hiring the ships. This as an important undertaking as allocation of financial savings is expected to have an impact on the incentives faced by ship owners to invest in more energy efficient vessels. We focus on the dry bulk Panamax segment as it contributes to around 50 Mt (5%) of total CO₂ emissions from shipping in 2007 and therefore its importance in terms of environmental impact should not be neglected. The time charter market represents a classical example of the principal–agent problem similar to the tenant–landlord problem in the buildings sector. We discovered that on average only 40% of the financial savings delivered by energy efficiency accrue to ship owner for the period 2008–2012. The finding that only part of the savings are recouped by shipowners affecting their incentives towards energy efficiency could consequently have implications on the type of emission reduction policies opted at both, global and regional levels.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from ships in ports – Case studies in four continents

Emissions of GHG from the transport sector and how to reduce them are major challenges for policy makers. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships while in port based on annual data from Port of Gothenburg, Port of Long Beach, Port of Osaka and Sydney Ports. Port call statistics including IMO number, ship name, berth number and time spent at berth for each ship call, were provided by each participating port. The IMO numbers were used to match each port call to ship specifications from the IHS database Sea-web. All data were analysed with a model developed by the IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute for the purpose of quantifying GHG emissions (as CO₂-equivalent) from ships in the port area. Emissions from five operational modes are summed in order to account for ship operations in the different traffic areas. The model estimates total GHG emissions of 150,000, 240,000, 97,000, and 95,000 tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year for Gothenburg, Long Beach, Osaka, and Sydney, respectively. Four important emission-reduction measures are discussed: reduced speed in fairway channels, on-shore power supply, reduced turnaround time at berth and alternative fuels. It is argued that the potential to reduce emissions in a port area depends on how often a ship revisits a port: there it in general is easier to implement measures for high-frequent liners. Ships that call 10 times or less contribute significantly to emissions in all ports.     

Estimating the environmental costs of port related emissions: The case of Kaohsiung

This study estimates the emission costs of ships and trucks in the Port of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, focusing mainly on particular matter and volatile organic compounds. By calculating annual ship and truck emissions we find that the major contributors are tankers, container ships and bulk ships and trucks. Using a bottom-up methodology, the combined environmental costs of ships and trucks are estimated to be over $123 million per year.     

Low carbon maritime transport: How speed,size and slenderness amounts to substantial capital energy substitution

Three responses that reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in maritime transport are slower speeds, larger vessels and slender hull designs. We use crude oil carriers as our illustrative example; these represent nearly a quarter of international sea cargo movements. We estimate the potential and costs in these which can all be described as capital substituting for energy and emissions. At different degrees of flexibility and time scales: speed reductions are feasible immediately when there are vessels available, though more capital will be tied up in cargo. Deployment of larger and more slender vessels to a greater extent requires fleet renovation, and also investments in ports and infrastructure. A novel finding in our analysis is that if bunker costs rise as a result of emission costs (fees, quotas), then this may depress speeds and emissions more than if they result from higher oil prices. The reason is that for higher oil prices, more capital tied up in cargo may give cargo owners an interest in speeding up, partly counteracting the impulse from fuel costs that tends to slow vessels down. Emission costs, in contrast, do not raise cargo values.     

Health externalities of ship air pollution at port – Piraeus port case study

This paper is employing the well-known methodology of impact pathway approach to assess the external costs in human health from ship air pollution at port areas. The passenger port of Piraeus, Greece is the scenery of the study. Piraeus port is in the vicinity of the greater Athens metropolitan area where almost half of the country’s population lives. Hence, this port is the central hub of the Greek coastal passenger ship system which connects the islands of the Aegean Sea with land and is characterized by heavy ship traffic. The case study presented in this paper assesses the annual external cost in human health from air emissions produced by all passenger ships and cruise ships calling the port of Piraeus. Health cost from ships at port has been estimated at both local (Athens metropolitan area) and regional level (entire territory of Greece). Results show that higher costs occur at the local level. The dominant pollutants creating this cost are particulate matter (PM_2.5, and PM₁₀). Overall, the results indicate that the health impact of Piraeus’s passenger port emissions is not negligible; however the cost of PM₁₀ is considerably lower than the corresponded cost deriving from the land based industries of the Athens regional area for which comparison has been available.     

Integrating multi-source maritime information to estimate ship exhaust emissions under wind,wave and current conditions

How to accurately calculate ship exhaust emissions has become urgent needs. In this paper, multi-source maritime information is integrated to estimate ship exhaust emissions under ocean environment. Influences of wind, wave and current on ship speed are firstly analyzed and mathematically modeled. Based on the influences, ocean environment information and ship trajectories are integrated to identify ship activities exactly. After that, ship activity based calculation method is present to obtain exhaust emissions from ship in various activities. Contribution ratios of different ship type and ship activities have been further discussed. In a case study of Ningbo-Zhoushan port in China, greenhouse gas (CO₂, CO, SO_x, NO_x and PM) emissions from ships in 2014 calculated by the proposed method are 8.72 × 10⁵ ton, 2.07 × 10³ ton, 1.47 × 10⁴ ton, 2.60 × 10⁴ ton and 1.40 × 10³ ton respectively. The maximum error is under 10%. Experimental results illustrate that the proposed method can produce more accurate ship exhaust emissions than traditional method under ocean environment conditions.     

Assessment of profit,cost and emissions by varying speed as a function of sea conditions and freight market

This paper assesses shipping profits, costs and emissions by speed and as a function of sea and freight market conditions. Traditionally, seagoing vessels have been designed to operate at standardized, maximum economic speeds based on hydrodynamic considerations. High fuel costs and increased environmental concerns have challenged this practice. While speed reductions may reduce costs and emissions, most studies are based on still water conditions despite these being the exceptions. In addition, shipping lines operate in a commercial market with the objective of making profit and not solely on cost reductions. Our results show that significant cost and emissions reductions can be achieved and that the maximum economic speeds based on hydrodynamic considerations even in a good freight market are lower than the design speeds.     

Particulate matter in marine diesel engines exhausts: Emissions and control strategies

Marine diesel engines emit particles that have a complex nature, being composed by carbonaceous particles, with size spanning from few nanometres to less than one micron, and inorganic particles of micron size mainly made by ashes and sulphates.On a global scale, international shipping is responsible for few percentages of the particulate matter emissions, which also affect climate, but the regional distribution of naval traffic suggests the insurgence of significant exposure risk for population living along the coastal areas, due to chronic exposure effects. Specific strategies should be implemented to reduce the emissions of all the components of particulate matter. This paper aims to present a survey on the current and innovative strategies to remove particles from marine diesel engine exhausts, along with a critical review of the most recent findings on ships emitted particles. Evidences on physical–chemical properties, toxicology and emission factors of the particles were reported. This survey indicates that several strategies can provide a significant reduction of particulate matter emissions from ships and integration between innovative after-treatment systems, ships design and operation procedures can potentially lead to overall reduction of more than 99% even with parallel fuel savings.     

Ship emissions and their externalities in cruise ports

This paper presents an estimation and analysis of ship exhaust emissions and their externalities in the popular cruise destinations of Dubrovnik (Croatia) and Kotor (Montenegro) along the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea. To this extent, the recent record (2012–2014) of cruise ships calling at these ports is used to model and estimate the ship exhaust emission inventories and externalities within the associated bays and ports.The results indicate that cruise ship traffic produces continuously increasing air pollution in both ports over recent years. More importantly, however, the analysis of the ship operating characteristics reveals that for any given ship traffic involving specific vessels using marine fuel of a given quality, the presence of other factors (e.g. berth availability, berth accessibility etc) can also influence the ship emission levels. This is particularly evident in the case of the port of Kotor where berth space insufficiency dictates the need for ship anchorage thus leading to increased air pollution and costs of associated damage.The application and results of the aforementioned ship activity-based methodology to the ports of Dubrovnik and Kotor improves our understanding of ship emissions in cruise bays and ports, and contributes toward the implementation of port policies for the effective control of air quality in such environmentally sensitive locations.     

Dynamic optimization of ship energy efficiency considering time-varying environmental factors

Nowadays, optimization of ship energy efficiency attracts increasing attention in order to meet the requirement for energy conservation and emission reduction. Ship operation energy efficiency is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as wind speed and direction, water speed and depth. Owing to inherent time-variety and uncertainty associated with these various factors, it is very difficult to determine optimal sailing speeds accurately for different legs of the whole route using traditional static optimization methods, especially when the weather conditions change frequently over the length of a ship route. Therefore, in this paper, a novel dynamic optimization method adopting the model predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed to optimize ship energy efficiency accounting for these time-varying environmental factors. Firstly, the dynamic optimization model of ship energy efficiency considering time-varying environmental factors and the nonlinear system model of ship energy efficiency are established. On this basis, the control algorithm and controller for the dynamic optimization of ship energy efficiency (DOSEE) are designed. Finally, a case study is carried out to demonstrate the validity of this optimization method. The results indicate that the optimal sailing speeds at different time steps could be determined through the dynamic optimization method. This method can improve ship energy efficiency and reduce CO₂ emissions effectively.     

Evaluating the effects of speed reduce for shipping costs and CO2 emission

Global greenhouse gas emissions have driven up carbon dioxide levels beyond 400 parts per million, thereby increasing the rate of global warming. This paper conducted a thorough assessment of available operating strategies to identify the approach to speed reduction that is best able to minimize costs and reduce the impact of shipping on the environment. Our results indicate that optimum speed reduction is a dynamic process depending largely on charter rates and fuel prices. The significant cost advantages afforded by this approach could improve the competitiveness of ship operators.