LNG-fuelled fishing vessels: A systems engineering approach

Air emissions from fishing vessels must be reduced to comply with progressively stringent environmental regulations. Among the available solutions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel may represent a promising solution, particularly from an environmental perspective. However, the use of LNG as a marine fuel creates different types of hazards than those that exist for traditional fuels. In addition, the increased complexity, safety requirements, and space required for LNG installation increase the capital cost. This article uses a systems engineering approach to clarify the technical aspects of LNG-fuelled systems, their potential implementation costs, and the expertise and training required to operate them safely. Ship owners can use such an approach to aid decision-making and trade-off analyses. Naval architects may also benefit from better information management. Finally, crews may better understand the logic behind the safety actions they are instructed to take.     

The effects of emission control area regulations on cruise shipping

To control SOx, NOx and particulate matter emission from ships, including cruise ships, emission control areas (ECAs) have been defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which influences cruise planning. This paper investigates a mixed integer programming model to reschedule voyage plans by optimizing speeds, sailing patterns and ports-of-call sequences, hence reducing fuel costs. A tabu search based solution method is developed to solve the model. Computational tests on real-world data of cruise lines are conducted in order to explore the effects of ECA regulations on cruise shipping. The results show that the proposed model can save fuel costs under ECA regulations, and the designed solution method is efficient.     

Sulphur abatement globally in maritime shipping

In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns.The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5% sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SO_X reductions and CO₂ (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO₂ emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO₂ emissions.     

Emission control areas: More or fewer?

As the global sulphur limit implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the further development of sulphur emission reduction technologies, the effects of Emission Control Areas (ECAs) on reducing the sulphur emissions from ships will be reduced gradually. To explore the necessity of ECAs in the near future, this paper introduces the fictitious sulphur emission permit allocated to shipping carriers for our considered region. We propose an ECA location problem, which determines the location of ECAs in order to minimize the impact of sulphur emissions on human health, while satisfying the constraint on the fictitious sulphur emission permit. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed for our investigated problem. Numerical experiments are carried out by using our proposed model applied to China and Africa, where the sulphur emissions at different sites are estimated via the fuel consumption calculated by collecting data from liner carriers. Results show that, for the case of China, the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have a high probability for establishing ECAs. For the case of Africa, the Guinea Bay and South Africa have a high probability for establishing ECAs.     

The effectiveness of a European speed limit versus an international bunker-levy to reduce CO2 emissions from container shipping

In the fight to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping, a bunker-levy is currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Faced with the inability of the IMO to reach an agreement in the short term, the European Commission is now contemplating a unilateral measure of a speed limit for all ships entering European Union (EU) ports. This paper argues that this measure is counterproductive for two reasons. Firstly, because it may ultimately generate more emissions and incur a cost per ton of CO₂ which is more than society is willing to pay. Secondly, because it is sub-optimal compared to results obtained if an international bunker-levy was to be implemented. These elements are illustrated using two direct transatlantic services operated in 2010.     

Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

Abstract

As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to long-term contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating the LNG market, propelling into a more competitive market with more flexible trades and expanding spot markets. The overcapacity of LNG ships during 2008–2009 triggered by massive overcontracting is a good case in point where the use of decision support models would have been beneficial, especially considering the fortunes and risks at stake. In this paper we present an LNG shipping model that effectively supports decision-making in practice. To demonstrate the value added of the model, we study the implications of LNG project delays and increased decommissioning of ships with respect to market balance and fleet requirements.     

The desulphurisation of shipping: Past,present and the future under a global cap

As from January 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is implementing a global 0.5% limit on the sulphur content of fuel, commonly known as the global sulphur cap. This limit is the latest policy in the efforts to reduce sulphur emissions from shipping, following the designation of emission control areas (ECAs) and other regional regulations. In this paper, a literature review is conducted of academic studies that have dealt with issues relating to the reduction of maritime sulphur emissions. Various recurring research themes are identified, spanning the areas of operations research, maritime economics and transport policy. The effects and implications of available compliance options are then analyzed from the perspectives of ship operators, shippers and consumers. Using lessons learned from the enforcement of ECA regulations, this is followed by an appraisal of various potential issues related to the enforcement of these new global regulations. It is found that a homogeneous enforcement regime is required to ensure a level playing field amongst ship operators and that the global sulphur cap may lead to serious market distortion, due to the potential short term rise of fuel prices. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future research on sulphur emissions from shipping in the aftermath of the global cap and, looking forward, to its relationship to the IMO strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) shipping emissions.     

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

Lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers’ lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e−) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California’s public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.     

Compliance with MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 by ships in the Gulf of Guinea sub-region: Issues,challenges and opportunities

The negative environmental and health impacts association with high sulphur dioxide emissions from shipboard machineries have been raised by various stakeholders within the marine transportation sector. It is against this backdrop that the International Maritime Organisation under the MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 has capped sulphur emission to 0.1% for Sulphur Emission Control Areas and 0.5% for the other shipping nations. However, ship owners in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region are facing multitudes of challenges in meeting up with this new IMO regulation. This paper aims to identify the main barriers hampering effective compliance to this new regulation by ships operating in the GoG, rank the barriers, and then discuss the possible opportunities that may arise as a result of addressing the challenges. To identify the main barriers, experts with several years of experience in the maritime industry from Ghana and Cameroun were used while multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was employed to rank the barriers. Other methods such as fuzzy AHP (FAHP), rank-order centroid (ROC) and TOPSIS were combined to validate the result of the study. The findings indicate that lack of infrastructure, lack of comprehensive marine air pollution laws and high capital and operational costs of sulphur reduction solutions emerged as the top three ranked barriers. The findings of this study can be useful to ship owners and policy makers in dealing with the issues of marine air pollution.     

Rural environment stakeholders and policy making: Willingness to pay to reduce road transportation pollution impact in the Western Pyrenees

In spite of the strategic national and regional development importance of transportation infrastructures, road transportation is one of the major sources of externalities worldwide. Using data collected from 900 residents living in 14 rural towns near the roads crossing the Spanish Pyrenees, we model citizens’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) to reduce noise and air pollution. We collect the data adopting a contingent valuation method (CVM) design and we analyze the data employing a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit (ZIOP) model, which allows us to account for an excessive number of zero observations. Our results are in contrast with previous studies’ results with regard to environmental attitudes and socio-economic profiles of residents. Our findings indicate that the stakeholders living near major roads have higher incentives to offset environmental costs. Also, younger, better educated, and more environmentally-aware citizens are willing to pay more to reduce externalities, as they are influenced by their values and environmentally friendly sub-culture, possibly fostered during the past 30 years of green movement worldwide campaigning.     

Excess Commuting: A Critical Review

Abstract

The stringent ship emission regulations under IMO's (International Maritime Organization) MARPOL Annex VI are a main driver to consider liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a ship fuel. Research into LNG as a marine fuel saw a strong growth in recent years, but no study has analyzed in a systematic way the level of convergence among the findings presented in the wide range of studies. In order to fill this gap, this paper seeks to perform a systematic review to synthesize the findings of 33 published studies on the use of LNG as a ship fuel. The aim is not only to obtain a much broader understanding of the current perspectives and challenges for applying LNG as a bunker for ship propulsion, but also to identify the gaps and weak points in the literature which could suggest future research. Moreover, given the output of the synthesis, the paper presents an extensive decision-making framework for shipowners when deciding on a fuel switch for their fleet from conventional oils to LNG in order to achieve a level of conceptual development beyond that attained in individual studies. In addition, the study also identifies the important role of ports in facilitating and encouraging the large-scale adoption of LNG in the maritime industry.     

Cruise activity and pollution: The case of Barcelona

One of the main causes of mortality worldwide is air pollution. To tackle this problem, local, regional and national governments have implemented policies to reduce emissions from industrial and on-road sources. However, when these policies are being designed, shipping emissions are often overlooked. There has been a drastic increase in the demand for cruises and its economic relevance is also growing in port-cities. Barcelona is Europe’s leading cruise port, and it is located near the centre of the city. In this context, this paper analyses the impact of cruise ships in the air quality of the entire city of Barcelona using a dataset with information about pollutants and the number of cruises arriving to the port. We show that there is a direct impact between cruises staying at the port and city pollution. Additionally, the size and age of the cruise also affect air quality. The larger (or newer) the cruise is, the higher the emission generated. Moreover, our simulations show that the whole city is affected by these emissions.     

Valuing reductions in environmental pollution in a residential location context

A stated preference ranking experiment is designed to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for reducing the amount of atmospheric pollution in a group-based residential location context. Important issues are the proper definition of the context and the variable metric for the environmental attribute. Sample members were asked to rank 10 options arising from variations in the attributes travel time to work and to study, rent of the house and an environmental attribute (the number of days of Alert, in terms of concentration of PM₁₀, at a dwelling’s location). Multinomial logit models based on a consistent microeconomic framework were estimated for various stratifications of the data (income, pollution sensitivity, and type of dwelling currently inhabited). From these subjective values of time and WTP were derived for reductions in the number of days of alert and hence the amount of pollutant concentration at a given location. The WTP came out at about 1% of the family income for reducing one contingence day per year; this is approximately 60% higher than an estimate reported for the city of Edmonton, Canada, but the average PM₁₀ concentration in Santiago is about six times higher.     

LNG燃料动力船在广西内河推广应用的思考

文章分析了液化天然气(LNG)在航运业推广应用的必要性和以LNG作为船舶动力燃料的主要危险特性,介绍了国内外LNG燃料动力船改造应用的基本情况及难点,提出了广西内河现有船舶进行LNG动力改造面临的主要问题与对策,为LNG燃料动力船在广西内河的推广应用提供参考。     

Freeway drivers’ willingness-to-pay for a distance-based toll rate

This paper applies the contingent valuation method to investigate and estimate the toll rate that freeway drivers are willing-to-pay (WTP) for each unit of distance they travel, after switching from per-entry based to distance-based tolling system. Due to a large portion of respondents who are unwilling to pay a toll at all, we adopt the spike model to avoid estimation errors. The estimation results show that average willingness to pay toll is TWD¹ 0.86/km, which can be refined further to TWD 0.81/km for short distance travelers, TWD 0.93/km for medium distance travelers, and TWD 0.97/km for long distance travelers. Additionally, the WTP toll rate of short distance travelers is significantly different on public holidays but not during peak hours. In contrast, the WTP toll rates of medium and long distance travelers significantly different during peak hours but not on public holidays.     

Assuring finite moments for willingness to pay in random coefficient models

Random coefficient models such as mixed logit are increasingly being used to allow for random heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) measures. In the most commonly used specifications, the distribution of WTP for an attribute is derived from the distribution of the ratio of individual coefficients. Since the cost coefficient enters the denominator, its distribution plays a major role in the distribution of WTP. Depending on the choice of distribution for the cost coefficient, and its implied range, the distribution of WTP may or may not have finite moments. In this paper, we identify a criterion to determine whether, with a given distribution for the cost coefficient, the distribution of WTP has finite moments. Using this criterion, we show that some popular distributions used for the cost coefficient in random coefficient models, including normal, truncated normal, uniform and triangular, imply infinite moments for the distribution of WTP, even if truncated or bounded at zero. We also point out that relying on simulation approaches to obtain moments of WTP from the estimated distribution of the cost and attribute coefficients can mask the issue by giving finite moments when the true ones are infinite.     

What do commuters think travel time reliability is worth? Calculating economic value of reducing the frequency and extent of unexpected delays

The measurement of transportation system reliability has become one of the central topics of travel demand studies. A growing literature concerns the measurement of value of travel time reliability which provides a monetary cost of avoiding unpredictable travel time. The goal of this study is to measure commuters’ sensitivities to travel time reliability and their willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid unreliable routes. The preferences are elicited through a pivoted stated preference survey technique. To circumvent the issue of presenting numerical distributions and statistical terms to day-to-day commuters, we use the frequency of delay days as a means of measuring traveler’s sensitivities to travel time reliability. The advantage of using simplified measures to elicit traveler preferences for travel time reliability is that these methods simply compare days with high delay to days with usual travel time. It was found that travelers are not only averse to the amount of unexpected delay but also to the frequency of days with unexpected delays. The paper presents WTP findings for three measures: travel time, frequency embedded travel time, and travel time reliability. The ‘reliability’ increase in WTP for travel time is found to be nearly proportional to the frequency of experiencing unexpected delays. For example, the WTP for mean travel time is calculated at $6.98/h; however, reliability adds $3.27 (about 50 % of $6.98) to avoid unexpected delays ‘5 out of 10 days’. The results of the study would provide valuable inputs to cost-benefit analyses and traffic and revenue studies required for road tolling investment projects.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from ships in ports – Case studies in four continents

Emissions of GHG from the transport sector and how to reduce them are major challenges for policy makers. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships while in port based on annual data from Port of Gothenburg, Port of Long Beach, Port of Osaka and Sydney Ports. Port call statistics including IMO number, ship name, berth number and time spent at berth for each ship call, were provided by each participating port. The IMO numbers were used to match each port call to ship specifications from the IHS database Sea-web. All data were analysed with a model developed by the IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute for the purpose of quantifying GHG emissions (as CO₂-equivalent) from ships in the port area. Emissions from five operational modes are summed in order to account for ship operations in the different traffic areas. The model estimates total GHG emissions of 150,000, 240,000, 97,000, and 95,000 tonnes CO₂ equivalents per year for Gothenburg, Long Beach, Osaka, and Sydney, respectively. Four important emission-reduction measures are discussed: reduced speed in fairway channels, on-shore power supply, reduced turnaround time at berth and alternative fuels. It is argued that the potential to reduce emissions in a port area depends on how often a ship revisits a port: there it in general is easier to implement measures for high-frequent liners. Ships that call 10 times or less contribute significantly to emissions in all ports.     

Use of Bayesian inference method to model vehicular air pollution in local urban areas

Traffic Related Air Pollution (TRAP) studies are usually investigated using different categories such as air pollution exposure for health impacts, urban transportation network design to mitigate pollution, environmental impacts of pollution, etc. All of these subfields often rely on a robust air pollution model, which also necessitates an accurate prediction of future pollutants. As is widely accepted by the heath authorities, TRAP is considered to be the major health issue in urban areas, and it is difficult to keep pollution at harmless levels if the time sequenced dynamic pollution and traffic parameters are not identified and modelled efficiently. In our work here, artificial intelligence techniques, such as Bayesian Networks with an optimized configuration, are used to deliver a probabilistic traffic data analysis and predictive modelling for air pollution (SO₂, NO₂ and CO) at very local scale of an urban region with up to 85% accuracy. The main challenge for traditional data analysis is a lack of capability to reveal the hidden links between distant data attributes (e.g. pollution sources, dynamic traffic parameters, etc.), whereas some subtle effects of these parameters or events may play an important role in pollution on a long-term basis. This study focuses on the optimisation of Bayesian Networks to unveil hidden links and to increase the prediction accuracy of TRAP considering its further association with a predictive GIS system.     

Determinants of the willingness-to-pay for reducing the environmental impacts of road transportation

This paper examines the willingness-to-pay of people living in a number of villages in Navarre, in the Spanish Pyrenees to reduce noise and air pollution. Several models are used for estimation based on contingent valuation, noting that those living near roads are willing to pay more to reduce air and noise pollution. In addition, younger people, the better educated, and the more environmentally aware individuals are also willing to pay more to reduce those externalities.